Sample Category Title

The EUR/USD has rejected from the order block close to 23.6 of it’s last swing. The POC zone 1.1605-15 is also showing a retracement trend line break, so we might see a continuation towards 1.1542 and 1.1521 which is a confluence of D/W L3. In the case of a bounce next POC zone is 1.166090 where the important Weekly H3 pivot is. As long as the price is kept below the upper order block 1.1724, bears should be safe.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 – Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 – Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

General Trend:

• Asian equity markets trade generally lower in the face of lingering trade concerns
• Market participation limited by holidays in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan
• Energy shares decline, oil prices drop over 1%
• ASX under pressure from commodity related names, while Nikkei pinned lower by financial names
• Earthquake rocks Osaka Japan region, more than 200 reported injured, so far no reports of issues with nuclear plants or major damage; several companies closing production plants to assess damages
• Japanese shipping-related firms underperform
• South Korean chipmakers decline, Hynix drops over 3%
• Australian aluminum miner South32 to pay $1.3B to acquire Arizona Mining
• Japan reports trade deficit in May, imports above ests
• NZIER cut New Zealand’s growth forecasts ahead of Thursday’s Q1 GDP release
• South Korean Won (KRW) extends declines seen at the end of last week
• Trade sensitive currencies move generally lower, AUD near 1-year low; MXN, CAD and NZD also decline

Headlines/Economic Data

Japan

• Nikkei 225 opened -0.2%
• TOPIX Marine Transportation index -3%, Iron & Steel -1.8%, Securities -1.3%, Electric Appliances -1.2%, Real Estate -0.7%
• (JP) Officials seeking to arrange a summit between PM Abe and North Korea Kim - press
• Hitachi, 6501.JP Said to target margin of 10% (timing uncertain), reiterates considering ¥1.0T in acquisitions- Japanese Press
• (JP) Japan May Trade Balance: -¥578.3B v -¥205.2Be; Adj Trade Balance: -¥296.8B v ¥144.1Be; Exports y/y: 8.1% v 7.5%e; Imports y/y: 14.0% v 8.0%e
• (JP) Japan 10-yr JGBs did not trade June 11th or 13th, making 5 days of no trading in 2018 to date v 2 days in 2017 - Japan press

Korea

• Kospi opened 0.0%
• (KR) South Korea employment indexes continued to struggle amid controversies on increased minimum wage, the job decreasing rate turned out to be the most drastic for the primary labor force age clusters in their 30s and 40s - Korean press
• (KR) Moody's affirms South Korea Sovereign rating at Aa2. Outlook stable
• (KR) South Korea May Foreign Net Investment in Local Bonds (KRW): +3.27T v +0.71T m/m - FSS

China/Hong Kong

• Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite closed for holiday
• (US) US ANNOUNCES TARGET LIST OF CHINESE GOODS; to pursue more tariffs if China retaliates in imposing new tariffs or take punitive action against American companies; To implement 25% tariff on $50B in Chinese imports (Friday)
• (CN) China Commerce Ministry: to impose additional 25% tariff on chemicals, medical equipment, energy products, commodities from U.S. (Friday)

Australia/New Zealand

• ASX 200 opened -0.1%
• ASX 200 Resources index -1.6%, Telecom -1.5%, Energy -1.1%; REIT +0.6%, Financials +0.5%
• (NZ) New Zealand May Performance Service Index: 57.3 v 55.9 prior
• (NZ) New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER): Economists lower GDP growth forecasts, notes weaker forecasts for exports
• AZ.CA To be acquired by South32 for $1.3B cash, C$6.20/shr
• 88 Energy, [-21%], 88E.AU Operations update: Icewine#2 wellhead pressure 370psi with a flowback rate of 166 barrels of water per day
• (AU) Australia sells A$800M v A$800M indicated in Nov 2029 bonds, avg yield 2.7059% v 2.8273% prior, bid to cover 3.62x v 5.21x prior
• Rio Tinto, RIO.AU Affirms FY18 Pilbara iron ore 330-340M tons; Guides FY19 Iron Ore Capacity 360MT - Presentation for Iron ore unit

Other Asia

• (SG) Singapore May non-domestic Exports m/m: 10.3% v 6.5% prior; y/y: 15.5% v 4.6%e; Electronic Exports y/y: -7.8% v -6.9% prior; Exports to China -5.9% y/y; EU +97.5% y/y; US +54.0% y/y

North America

• PCG PG&E said to be considering bankruptcy protection - CBS
• AutoCanada, ACQ.CA Appoints special committee to review strategic alternatives
• JD Google to invest $500M into JD.com for 21.1M class A shares At $20.29/shr or $40.58/ADS in a strategic partnership
• Perry Ellis [PERY]: Agrees to going private transaction led by founder Feldenkreis; Shareholders to get $27.50/shr in cash in $437M deal
• TSLA Tesla belonging to British 13 Reasons Why director Michael Morris has burst into flames while he was driving in Hollywood - AFR

Europe

• (DE) Germany CSU party is expected to decide on Monday whether to go against Chancellor Merkel and implement plan aimed at limiting immigration – financial press
• (EU) German Chancellor Merkel to call for a special EU summit on the migrant crisis - press
• (AT) Austria calls on Germany to clarify spying allegations that German intelligence agents systematically spied on politicians - press
• (GR) On Saturday, Greece PM Tsipras survived no-confidence vote, motion was defeated by a 153 to 127 margin – financial press
• Virgin Money [VM.UK]: Expected to accept offer from CYBG - UK press

Levels as of 01:30ET

• Hang Seng -0.4%; Shanghai Composite -0.7%; Kospi -1.4%; Nikkei 225 -0.8%; ASX 200 +0.3%
• Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.6%, Dax -0.5%; FTSE100 -0.3%
• EUR 1.1576-1.1603; JPY 110.31-110.74; AUD 0.7426-0.7448;NZD 0.6920-0.6944
• Aug Gold +0.3% at $1,282/oz; Aug Crude Oil -1.8% at $63.64/brl; Jul Copper -0.2% at $3.13/lb

EURUSD is attempting to reverse some of Thursday's aggressive losses but the risk is still to the downside as the trend remains bearish. The price dived below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.0340 to 1.2560, around 1.1710. The short-term technical indicators are neutral to bearish and point to more weakness in the market.

Looking at the daily timeframe, the moving averages are sloping down following the price action. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat in the negative territory, while the MACD oscillator is ready for a bearish cross with its trigger line below the zero threshold.

The next target to the downside to have in mind is the 1.1510 support, taken from the low on May 29. At this stage the market could breach this level and challenge the 50.0% Fibonacci near 1.1450.

Upsides moves are likely to find resistance at the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), which stands slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.1710. Rising above this area would help shift the focus to the upside towards the 1.1820 resistance, which overlaps with the 40-day SMA. Breaking this level could see a re-test of the 1.2000 strong psychological obstacle, holding near the 200-day SMA, and turn the bias to bullish for the near-term.

In the short-term, the bearish phase remains in play especially if EURUSD continues to trade below the 38.2% Fibonacci and under the moving averages. In the bigger picture, the market seems to be in a downward correction of the uptrend from January 2017.

The euro remains under pressure against the US dollar, after suffering its worst one-day loss of the year last Thursday, following the ECB policy meeting. The EURUSD pair currently trades around the 1.1590 level, after bouncing strongly from the 1.1545 level on Friday. Euro traders await a scheduled speech from ECB President Mario Draghi at the ECB forum in Sintra, Portugal, during the European trading session.

The EURUSD pair is intraday bearish while trading below the 1.1615 level, further losses towards 1.1570 and 1.1510 remain possible.

If the EURUSD pair moves above the 1.1615 level, buyers may test towards the 1.1658 and 1.1715 resistance levels.

The British pound remains under pressure against the US dollar in early week, after the pair performed a bearish weekly close below the key 1.3300 level. The GBPUSD pair currently trades around the 1.3260 region, after finding strong technical support from the 1.3222 level on Friday. Traders remained focused on the key 95.00 level on the US dollar index and the upcoming Bank of England policy decision this week.

The GBPUSD pair is strongly bearish while trading below the 1.3294 level, key technical support is now located at the 1.3222 and 1.3204 levels.

If the GBPUSD pair moves above the 1.3294 level, key technical resistance can be found at the 1.3307 and 1.3340 levels.

Monetary policy discussion will continue to impact the financial markets this week, as investors gear up for a deluge of central-bank speeches in the coming days. Action begins on Monday when members of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) deliver public remarks.

The monetary policy wire begins at 12:45 GMT when the Federal Reserve’s William Dudley delivers public commentary. The head of the New York Fed is planning to leave his position this month.

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members Elizabeth Duke, Raphael Bostic and John Williams are also scheduled to deliver speeches on Monday. These officials participated in the Fed’s policy meeting last week, where it was decided that interest rates would rise by 25 basis points. In doing so, the Fed outlined the likelihood of two more upward adjustments this year.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver opening remarks at the ECB’s Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal at 19:45 GMT. Draghi and his colleagues from the Governing Council will be in the headlines all week as the summit unfolds.

Last Thursday, ECB policymakers said they would put an end to quantitative easing by the end of the year. Interest rates are expected to stay at rock bottom for at least one year. The central bank will begin tapering bond purchases in September and end the program in December.

On the economic calendar, very few data releases are scheduled at the start of the week. The Italian government will report on global and Europe-wide trade at 08:00 GMT.

In the North American session, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will release its monthly housing market index. The June index is forecast to hold steady at 70.

At 22:00, Westpac will release New Zealand’s consumer survey for the second quarter. Although the report will be released early Tuesday local time, it will hit North American trading desks in the late afternoon.

EUR/USD

Europe’s common currency continued lower on Monday after a modest rally at the end last week. EUR/USD is trading below 1.1600, having declined 230 pips since last Thursday. With bearish sentiment intact, the pair is eyeing immediate support near 1.1580.

GBP/USD

Cable is in consolidation mode after declining sharply in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision last week. GBP/USD is now trading around 1.3270, with markets turning their attention to the Bank of England’s upcoming policy decision. A failure to hold the 1.3250 handle could expose cable to bigger losses extending down to around 1.2330.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar opened lower on Monday, as the greenback continued to assert its dominance on the global currency market. AUD/USD touched a low of around 0.7420 but has since rebounded to around 0.7433. The pair is down roughly 170 pips from Wednesday’s swing high. Immediate support is located at 0.7410.

XAUUSD (1280.8250): Gold prices posted a strong decline on Friday after price action briefly tested the resistance level of 1304 - 1301 level. The sharp declines pushed the price of the precious metal lower to test the support at 1282. The declines sent gold prices to test intraday lows at 1275.47 before pulling back. We expect to see gold prices turning sideways for a short term within the 1282 and 1274 levels of price. A breakout above 1282 is required however for price to push higher to regain the 1301 level of support.

USDJPY (110.49): The USDJPY currency pair managed to close near the resistance level of 110.62 by Friday's close. However, price action is likely to struggle near this level unless there is a strong close above the resistance price level. We expect to see some near term pull back in price action as USDJPY is most likely to maintain its range within 110.62 resistance level and 109.57 level of support. The fact that price action is consolidating into a rising wedge pattern suggests a potential downside break down.

EURUSD (1.1590): The EURUSD currency pair was seen closing on Friday with some modest gains after price action fell to the lows near 1.1539. The recovery in the euro currency is still a bit premature as the currency pair is seen trading near the previous lows. Further gains are required in order for the currency pair to post a convincing bottom. In the event that the support at 1.1610 - 1.1577 fails to hold the recovery, we can anticipate fresh declines in the euro currency below 1.1500 level of support.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1558; (P) 1.1592 (R1) 1.1642; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.1509 low. Break will resume the whole fall from 1.2555 through 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447 to 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. On the upside, above 1.1659 minor resistance delay the bearish case and bring more consolidation first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.