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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.47% against the USD and closed at USD65.84 per barrel, after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that US crude oil supplies advanced by 833,000 bls in the week ended 8 June 2018.

Separately, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2018 domestic crude production forecast by 0.6% to 10.79mn bls per day. However, it reduced its 2019 output forecast by 0.8% to 11.76mn bls per day.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 66.01, with oil trading 0.26% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 65.45, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 64.90. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 66.63, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 67.26.

Crude oil is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1716; (P) 1.1762 (R1) 1.1792; More.....

intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first as range trading continue. On the downside, break of 1.1713 minor support suggest completion of the correction fro 1.1509. Intraday would be turned back to the downside to resume larger fall from 1.2555, through 1.1509 to 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3333; (P) 1.3379; (R1) 1.3416; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.3341 support. Break will confirm completion of the corrective rise from 1.3203. Intraday bias would be turn to the downside. And fall from 1.4376 should resume through 1.3203 to 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first, and 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next. In case of another rally, upside should be limited by 1.3617 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We'll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3617 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9837; (P) 0.9861; (R1) 0.9891; More...

USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.9787 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, break of 0.9911 minor resistance will suggest that the corrective pull back from 1.0056 is already completed. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0056 first. On the downside, below 0.9787 will extend the correction. But we'd expect strong support from 0.9724 fibonacci level to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.06; (P) 110.28; (R1) 110.58;  More...

USD/JPY's rise from 108.10 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 111.39. Break there will resume the whole rebound from 104.62. On the downside, break of 109.18 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline towards 108.10 support.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2982; (P) 1.3007; (R1) 1.3041; More.....

Intraday bias remains neutral in USD/CAD as it's staying in range of 1.2817/3066. Further rise is still expected with 1.2817 support intact. Break of 1.3066 will resume the rally from 1.2526 and target 1.3124 key resistance next. However, break of 1.2817 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.2728 support and below.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7551; (P) 0.7588; (R1) 0.7611; More...

Despite some jittery, AUD/USD's fall from 0.7676 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.7411 should have completed just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7475 support first. Break there should resume larger fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Though, above 0.7623 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 0.7411 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Dollar is generally staying in familiar range, except versus Japanese Yen as markets await FOMC rate decision today. The federal funds rate is expected to be lifted by 25bps to 1.75-2.00%. There is practically no chance for Fed to disappoint the markets. Yet, there are a number of questions that could be answered by the voting, the statement, the press conference and the economic projections. A immediate one is whether Fed is on track for one or two more rate hikes this year. Further than that, we'd be keen to know where the neutral rate is in the board's minds. And, Fed could tweak the language to reflect that it's closer to neutral now.

More on FOMC

• FOMC Preview – Fed's Rate Hike A Done Deal, Focus Turned to Forward Guidance
• FOMC Meeting: Rate Hike A 'Done Deal' But What About Inflation?
• Dollar Firm as Rate Hike Imminent; But Will Fed also Raise Rate Path Forecast?

Technically, USD/JPY in on track to extend the rebound from 108.10 towards 111.39 resistance. AUD/USD's near term outlook is staying bearish as corrective rebound from 0.7411 should have completed at 0.7676. And deeper fall is expected to retest 0.7411 in near term. However, EUR/USD is holding above 1.1713 minor support for the moment and thus, could still extend recent corrective rebound from 1.1509. GBP/USD is also holding above 1.3341 minor support and UK CPI today could move the pair first.

Eurosceptic Savona: I never asked to leave indispensable Euro

The known Eurosceptic Italian Minister for European Affairs Paolo Savona said he fully backed the Euro as it's "indispensable" even though the currency union needs to be "perfected" in regards to its system of governance. He urged that the ECB should be given a "new statute" similar to Federal Reserve. And, it's "fundamental that the ECB should be able to act on exchange rates." A so called "Plan B" was laid out in his book, written just before becoming minister, for an orderly exit from Euro if necessary. Savona emphasized that was written as a "analyst". He said "there is no plan B and I never asked to leave."

Savona, who has been highly critical on Germany, said that it's a "great country from many points of view, culturally, economically and politically." But he pointed out a major difference between him and many German economists. He noted that "they tend to see stability as a necessary condition for growth, while I am part of a group who sees growth as a necessary condition for stability."

Italy was nearly in another political an constitutional crisis after President Sergio Mattarella vetoed Savona as economy minister. The antiestablishment coalition of 5-Star Movement and the League quitted forming the government. But then, they came back with Giovanni Tria as Economy Minister and kept Savona in the cabinet as Minister for European Affairs

Trump wants to stop war games for negotiation in good faith with North Korea

US President Donald Trump confirmed his intention to stop military exercise with South Korea while the negotiation with North Korea is in progress. He said in a Fox News interview in Singapore that "we're not going to be doing the war games as long as we're negotiating in good faith." "So that's good for a number of reasons, in addition to which we save a tremendous amount of money". And, "you know, those things, they cost. I hate to appear a businessman, but I kept saying, what's it costing?"

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham blasted the idea of cost cutting as ridiculous as "it's not a burden onto the American taxpayer to have a forward deployed force in South Korea."  He added that "It brings stability. It's a warning to China that you can't just take over the whole region. So I reject that analysis that it costs too much, but I do accept the proposition, let's stand down (on military exercises) and see if we can find a better way here."

Japan Defence Minister Onodera: Military drills vital to East Asia security

Japan Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera emphasized that "the drills and the US military stationed in South Korea play a vital role in East Asia's security." And he hoped to "share this recognition between Japan and the US, or among Japan, US and South Korea."

Onodera also said there is no change in Japan's policy after the Kim-Trump summit, of "putting pressure" on North Korea. And, Japan would stick to plans to bolster its defences against a possible ballistic missile strike from North Korea.

Separately, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said that Japan could shoulder some of the costs of North Korea's denuclearization, on the condition that International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) restarts inspections.

RBA Lowe: Any increase in interest rates, they're some time away

RBA Governor Philip Lowe delivered a speech titled "Productivity, Wages and Prosperity" today. There he pointed out that "over the past couple of years, output growth has been subdued, but employment growth has been strong." And, it's productivity that's holding the economy back. Low pointed to strong employment growth in household services, but output per hour worked was only 4% higher than it was in 2010. In contrast, the output per hour worked was up 13% to 16% in other industry groups.

He urged "strong ongoing focus on training, education and the accumulation of human capital" to bring up the overall productivity. And he emphasized that "our national comparative advantage will increasingly be built on the quality of our ideas and our human capital."

Regarding monetary policy, Lowe said the economy is "moving in the right direction" and the next move in interest rate will be "up, not down". But, "the environment in which interest rates are increasing is also likely to be one in which people's incomes are growing more quickly than they are now."And, "any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away."

On the data front

Australia Westpac consumer confidence rose 0.3% in June. Swiss PPI will be released in European session. Eurozone will release industrial production and employment. But UK CPI will catch most attention. US will release PPI today but main focus in on FOMC rate decision and press conference.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7608; (R1) 0.7625; More...

Despite some jittery, AUD/USD's fall from 0.7676 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside. As noted before, corrective rise from 0.7411 should have completed just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7475 support first. Break there should resume larger fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326). Though, above 0.7623 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 0.7411 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Economic Indicators Update

On June 12 and 13 the House of Commons, the lower house of the parliament, is due to vote on the 15 amendments proposed by the House of Lords, the upper house of the parliament. The key amendment – “meaningful vote”, has been rejected by the Commons, avoiding humiliation of PM Theresa May, thanks to her last-minute concessions to stave off Tory rebels. While there are still amendments to be voted today, rejection of Amendment 19 has saved PM May from a humiliation defeat and the concessions she has made have increased the chance of a “soft” Brexit, rather than a “hard” one.

What is the “Meaningful Vote” Amendment?

Contrary to expectations of a government defeat, MPs vote by 324 votes to 298 to back government in the “meaningful vote” amendment. The dramatic victory was driven by PM May’s “11th-hour talks” with over “14 Tory rebels in her Commons office”. The Tory rebels, led by the former attorney general Dominic Grieve, after the meeting indicated that May was “responding positively” to their concerns. Still, Anna Soubry (Broxtowe) and Kenneth Clarke (Rushcliffe) voted against the government. The amendment involves a new clause which says that Parliament must approve the withdrawal agreement and transitional measures in an act of Parliament and – if possible – before the European Parliament has debated and voted on this. The clause also sets out specific deadlines for the Government for agreeing – and legislating for – the withdrawal agreement with the EU. If the Government does not meet those deadlines, the amendment says that it "must follow any direction" approved by a resolution in the House of Commons and considered in the House of Lords. This gives the Commons – not the Lords – the power to decide the next steps for the Government. The amendment seeks to give the parliament unprecedented power to take charge of Brexit negotiations.

PM May promised to allow the Parliament a “meaningful” say in the final Brexit deal, in exchange for their rejection of the above amendemnt. The government is now expected to present the final deal to MPs in October this year. In case of rejection of the final deal by the parliament, ministers would have seven days to set out a fresh approach. Meanwhile, if talks with the EU breaking down, ministers would have until November 30 to try to strike a new deal. While the amendment aims to prevent a “no-deal” exit from the EU, rejection of which might not increase the chance of a hard Brexit. Rather the government’s concessions, although it only hinges on “trust” as described by former cabinet minister Justine Greening and Ed Vaizey, are expected to pave the way for a soft one, as the MPs are given more “say”.

There are more amendments due to voting today. For instance, the enhanced scrutiny amendment (amendment 4), which seeks prevention of EU law on areas such as work, health and safety, and environmental standards from being modified by secondary legislation without the approval of parliament. The EEA amendment (amendment 51) seeks to oblige the government to prioritize staying in the European Economic Area, known as the Norway option. Both proposals have been opposed by the government and the chance of passage by the lower house is low. Concerning the amendment to the compliance with EU principles (amendment 53), the upper house seeks to guarantee the right of challenge to a domestic law if it fails to comply with the general principles of EU law as set out by the European court of justice. The government suggested that would accept this as long as such challenges are limited to three years after exit. It is expected that the government version should prevail.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe delivered a speech titled "Productivity, Wages and Prosperity" today. There he pointed out that "over the past couple of years, output growth has been subdued, but employment growth has been strong." And, it's productivity that's holding the economy back. Low pointed to strong employment growth in household services, but output per hour worked was only 4% higher than it was in 2010. In contrast, the output per hour worked was up 13% to 16% in other industry groups.

He urged "strong ongoing focus on training, education and the accumulation of human capital" to bring up the overall productivity. And he emphasized that "our national comparative advantage will increasingly be built on the quality of our ideas and our human capital."

Regarding monetary policy, Lowe said the economy is "moving in the right direction" and the next move in interest rate will be "up, not down". But, "the environment in which interest rates are increasing is also likely to be one in which people's incomes are growing more quickly than they are now."And, "any increase in interest rates, however, still looks to be some time away."