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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.06% against the USD and closed at USD16.95 per ounce.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 16.92, with silver trading 0.15% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 16.81, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.69. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 17.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 17.09.

The white metal is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil rose 0.76% against the USD and closed at USD66.15 per barrel.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 66.18, with oil trading 0.05% higher against the USD from yesterday's close, amid optimism over the outcome of US-North Korea summit in Singapore.

The pair is expected to find support at 65.24, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 64.29. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 66.74, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 67.29.

Crude oil is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2948; (P) 1.2988; (R1) 1.3021; More.....

USD/CAD is staying in range of 1.2817/3066 and intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 1.2817 minor support holds, near term outlook remains cautiously bullish and further rise is in favor. Above 1.3066 will resume the rise from 1.2526 and target 1.3124 key resistance next. However, break of 1.2817 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias to the downside for 1.2728 support and below.

In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that that rebound from 1.2061 has not completed yet. But there is no follow through upside momentum so far. Focus remains on 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Sustained trading above there will confirm medium term bullish reversal. That is, down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 already. In that case, next target will be 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. However, break of 1.2526 support will dampen this bullish view again. And, focus will be back on 1.2061 key support level, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7594; (P) 0.7608; (R1) 0.7625; More...

AUD/USD's corrective rise from 0.7411 should have completed at 0.7676 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7144 at 0.7688. Deeper fall should be seen to 0.7475 support first. Break there should resume larger fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7328 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 0.6826 to 0.8135 at 0.7326).

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. Prior break of 0.7500 key support suggests that such correction is completed at 0.8135. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.6826 low. In case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption eventually.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1762; (P) 1.1792 (R1) 1.1815; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's staying in tight range below 1.1839. With 1.1713 intact, rise from 1.1509 could extend higher. But still, it's seen as a correction and upside should be limited by 1.1995 resistance to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 1.1713 minor support will likely resume larger fall from 1.2555 through 1.1509 to 50% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1447.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that EUR/USD was rejected by 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. And, a medium term top was formed at 1.2555 already. Decline from there should extend further to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 to 1.2555 at 1.1186 and below. For now, even in case of rebound, we won't consider the fall from 1.2555 as finished as long as 1.1995 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3337; (P) 1.3389; (R1) 1.3435; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral with focus on 1.3347 minor support. Firm break there will confirm completion of the corrective rise from 1.3203. Intraday bias would be turn to the downside. And fall from 1.4376 should resume through 1.3203 to 50% retracement of 1.1946 to 1.4376 at 1.3161 first, and 61.8% retracement at 1.2875 next. In case of another rally, upside should be limited by 1.3617 resistance to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that whole medium term rebound from 1.1936 (2016 low) has completed at 1.4376 already, with trend line broken firmly, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, after rejection from 55 month EMA (now at 1.4223). 61.8% retracement of 1.1936 (2016 low) to 1.4376 at 1.2874 is the next target. We'll pay attention to the reaction from there to asses the chance of long term down trend resumption. For now, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.3617 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9836; (P) 0.9855; (R1) 0.9872; More...

USD/CHF is staying in tight range above 0.9787 and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 0.9911 minor resistance intact, correction from 1.0056 could extend lower. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 0.9724 fibonacci level to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9911 will argue that the pull back from 1.0056 has completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0056.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds. However, sustained break of 0.9724 will dampen this bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.9518.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.52; (P) 109.82; (R1) 110.33; More...

Break of 110.26 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 108.10 has resumed. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the upside for 111.39 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume the whole rebound from 104.62. On the downside, break of 109.18 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline towards 108.10 support.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

The financial markets are steadily optimistic so far this week and that can be reflected in the rebound in German bund yield and US 10 year yield. Yen is trading broadly lower today, followed by the Swiss Franc. Australian, New Zealand and US Dollar are trading mildly higher. Eyes are on the summit between North Korea Leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump in Singapore in Asian session. The outcomes are positive so far as Kim said it's a "good prelude for peace".

One notable development in the currency markets is the break of 110.26 minor resistance in USD/JPY. It suggests resumption of recent rebound from 108.10 and further rise would be seen to 110.39 next. For now, USD/CHF is holding below 0.9911 minor resistance. EUR/USD is above 1.1713 minor support. There is no indication of completion of recent correction in Dollar yet. While FOMC economic projections to be released tomorrow is a key, markets will look into today's US CPI for guidance first.

Sterling is relatively resilient so far despite yesterday's data miss in industrial and manufacturing production. GBP/USD is holding on to 1.3347 minor support. EUR/GBP is also held below 0.8844 resistance. But the Pound would be vulnerable to another round of selloff today. UK job and wage data are important facts for BoE to decide whether to hike in August or not.

Canada united against Trump administration's disparaging ad hominem statements

Canada House of Commons displayed rare political unity an passed a unanimous motion standing by the government on retaliation against US steel tariffs, and reject personal attack on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The motion is introduced by NDP's Tracey Ramsey. The House "strongly opposes the illegitimate tariffs imposed by the United States government against Canadian steel and aluminum works". And it "stands united in solidarity with the Government of Canada in its decision to impose retaliatory tariffs". And it "rejects disparaging ad hominem statements by the US administration which do a disservice to bilateral relations and will fail to resolve this trade dispute".

IMF Lagarde and WTO Azevedo defend multilateralism

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said yesterday that "the clouds on the horizon that we have signaled about six months ago are getting darker by the day, and I was going to say by the weekend", referring to what Trump did to the G7. She added that the biggest and darkest cloud that we see is the deterioration in confidence that is prompted by (an) attempt to challenge the way in which trade has been conducted, in which relationships have been handled and in which multilateral organizations have been operating."

WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo also criticized the that "the US has been focusing much more on bilateral - unilateral even sometimes - measures, which is not something that is support of the rules-based trading system." And, "they have been complaining about the system, they say that they want to improve the system, but we would expect a more constructive approach on their part.

Australia NAB Business confidence dropped to 6, no RBA hike till May 2019

Australia NAB business condition dropped -6 pts to 15 in My. Business confidence dropped -5 pts to 6. Both reversed the improves from March to April. NAB chief economist Alan Oster noted that despite easing, business conditions "remain robust" well above average across most states and industries. Though, there is a divergence seen as confidence is "highest in trend terms in Tasmania and Western Australia. But New South Wales and Victoria "lag the other states at below average levels".

Oster added that the indicators continue to suggest a pickup in growth and unemployment rate would fall towards 5%. Pickup in wages remain key for RBA monetary policy. But a rate hike will not occur until May 2019. Oster said while the survey continues to point to a growing economy, strength in employment and a decline in the unemployment rate, these factors are yet to materialise in a significant pick-up in wages."

Also released in Asian session, Japan BSI large manufacturing dropped to -3.2 in Q2. Domestic CGPI rose 2.7% yoy in May.

Looking ahead

UK job data will take center stage in European session. Wage growth is particularly important to watch. Germany will release ZEW economic sentiment. Later in the day, US CPI will catch most attention.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.52; (P) 109.82; (R1) 110.33; More...

Break of 110.26 minor resistance suggests that rebound from 108.10 has resumed. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the upside for 111.39 resistance first. Decisive break there will resume the whole rebound from 104.62. On the downside, break of 109.18 will extend the consolidation from 111.39 with another decline towards 108.10 support.

In the bigger picture, at this point, we're slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this view and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD/JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

Economic Indicators Update

Some more comments from Kim and Trump on the summit. Kim said “We overcame all kinds of scepticism and speculations about this summit and I believe that this is good for the peace.” He added, “I believe this is a good prelude for peace.”

Trump said “Very good. Very, very good. Good relationship.”