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Aussie Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.82% against the USD and closed at 0.7725.
LME Copper prices rose 0.09% or $6.0/MT to $6942.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 2.93% or $74.0/MT to $2602.5/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7713, with the AUD trading 0.16% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7676, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7638. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7782, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7850.
Going ahead, investors would closely monitor Australia’s consumer price index, the sole important release next week.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Euro Trading Lower This Morning, Ahead Of The Euro-Zone’s Consumer Confidence Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.29% against the USD and closed at 1.2344.
Macroeconomic data indicated that the Euro-zone's seasonally adjusted current account surplus narrowed to €35.1 billion in February, from a revised surplus of €39.0 billion in the prior month.
Separately, first time claims for the US unemployment benefits slightly eased to a level of 232.0K in the week ended 14 April, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 230.0K. In the previous week, initial jobless claims had recorded a level of 233.0K. Additionally, the nation's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a level of 23.2 in April, defying market expectations for a fall to a level of 21.0. In the previous month, index had recorded a reading of 22.3. Moreover, the nation's leading indicator grew 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, meeting market expectations and following a revised rise of 0.7% in the previous month.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2337, with the EUR trading 0.06% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2311, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2284. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2382, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2426.
Ahead in the day, market participants would focus on the Euro-zone's flash consumer confidence index for April as well as Germany's producer price index for March.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
UK’s Retail Sales Sharply Declined In March
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.88% against the USD and closed at 1.4082, after the Bank of England's (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, casted doubt over the possibility of another interest rate hike next month.
Losses in the Pound were extended further, after data revealed that UK's retail sales sharply retreated in March.
Britain's retail sales slid 1.2% on a monthly basis in March, amid unusually cold weather. Retail sales had registered a gain of 0.8% in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a fall of 0.6%.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4074, with the GBP trading 0.06% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.4013, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3953. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4190, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4307.
Amid no macroeconomic releases in Britain today, investors would focus on UK's flash GDP figures as well as consumer confidence index, both scheduled to release next week.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Japan’s Annual Inflation Advanced As Expected In March
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.17% against the JPY and closed at 107.42.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.66, with the USD trading 0.22% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.
Overnight data indicated that Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) climbed 1.1% in March, meeting market expectations. In the prior month, the CPI had risen 1.5%.
Early morning data showed that the nation's tertiary industry index came in flat on a monthly basis in February, while investors had envisaged for a gain of 0.1%. In the previous month, the index had registered a fall of 0.6%.
The pair is expected to find support at 107.36, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.07. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.84, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.03.
Next week, all eyes would be on the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision. Moreover, Japan's flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI, jobless rate, preliminary industrial production, retail trade and large retailers' sales data, will be on investors' radar.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Swiss Franc Trading On A Weaker Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.34% against the CHF and closed at 0.9717.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9722, with the USD trading 0.05% higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9685, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9649. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9741, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9761.
Going ahead, market participants would focus on Switzerland’s trade balance figures and the ZEW expectations survey, both scheduled to release next week.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Loonie Trading A Tad Lower, Ahead Of Canada’s Inflation Data
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.32% against the CAD and closed at 1.2665.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2668, with the USD trading slightly higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2611, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2553. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2701, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2733.
Later in the day, the release of Canada's crucial inflation numbers for March and retail sales data for February, will garner a lot of market attention.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Gold: Yellow Metal Extends Its Losses This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Gold declined 0.44% against the USD and closed at USD1348.10 per ounce, amid strength in the greenback.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1344.60, with gold trading 0.26% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1339.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1334.00. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1353.80, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1363.00.
The yellow metal is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Silver: White Metal Trading Between Its MAs
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Silver rose 0.20% against the USD and closed at USD17.26 per ounce.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 17.19, with silver trading 0.38% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 17.07, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 16.94. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 17.34, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 17.48.
The white metal is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Crude Oil: Oil Trading Lower This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, Crude Oil declined 0.49% against the USD and closed at USD68.41 per barrel, surrendering its previous session gains.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 68.35, with oil trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday’s close, amid uncertainty over the outcome of the joint Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, scheduled later today.
The pair is expected to find support at 67.70, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 67.05. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 69.28, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 70.21.
Crude oil is trading between its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
US shot up by yield, but EUR resilience held dollar index in range
USD surged broadly overnight as boosted by the strong rally in treasury yields. But still, it's just trading as the second strongest major currency this week, following EUR. And because of that, the dollar index is still bounded in recently established range, held below 55 day EMA.
Taking a look at 10 year yield, TNX's strong rise yesterday now suggests that the pull back from Feb's high at 2.943 has completed and the medium term up trend is resuming. Focus will be on this 2.943 resistance today, if not taken out, early next week. A firm break there should likely push TNX through 2013 high at 2.036. That will be an important signal of reversal of the multi decade down trend.
For dollar index, we maintained our view that a breakout is imminent as it's close to medium term falling trend line. If the break out is accompanied by surge in treasury yield, then favor will be on the case of an upside breakout for bullish reversal. And in that case, we would likely see EUR/USD dropping through 1.22 handle. Let's see how it's going to play out.
