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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2277; (P) 1.2303 (R1) 1.2347; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, with focus on 1.2344 minor resistance. Break there will indicate that the decline from 1.2475 has completed and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance. Break will target a test on 1.2555 high. On the downside, below 1.2214 will target 1.2154 key support first. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci resistance.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4085; (P) 1.4124; (R1) 1.4171; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside for 1.4243 resistance. Break will target a test on 1.4345 high next. On the downside, below 1.4075 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.3964 support holds.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3651 resistance turned support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remain bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down trend from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4267) so far. Break of 1.3651 will be the first sign of medium term reversal and turn focus to 1.3038 support for confirmation.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9544; (P) 0.9577; (R1) 0.9593; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it's staying in range of 0.9521/9648. On the downside, break of 0.9521 minor support will indicate rejection by 0.9626 key fibonacci resistance. Intraday bias would then be turned back to the downside for 0.9432 support first. Break there will also confirm completion of rebound from 0.9186 and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, sustained break of 0.9626 will be another evidence of larger reversal. In this case, further rise would be seen to next fibonacci level at 0.9900.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above. However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.50; (P) 106.85; (R1) 107.09; More...

USD/JPY drew support from 4 hour 55 EMA and recovered. But it's staying below 107.48 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 107.48 will resume the rebound from 104.62. But reaction from 38.2% retracement of 114.73 to 104.62 at 108.48 is crucial to determine the outlook. Firm break of 108.48 will add some credence to the case of trend reversal. And USD/JPY should target 61.8% retracement at 110.86 next. Nonetheless, rejection from 108.48 (which is close to 108.12 key resistance too), will retain bearishness. Break of 105.65 support will indicate that the rebound is completed and turn bias back to the downside for 104.62 and below.

In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2649; (P) 1.2733; (R1) 1.2781; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside as fall from 1.3124 continues. Such decline should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2581 next. Firm break there will pave the way back to 1.2061/2246 support zone. On the upside, above 1.2818 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.2942 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, current development turns favors to the case that rise from 1.2061 is a corrective three wave pattern. It could have completed at 1.3124 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. Focus is now back on 1.2061 and 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048.

Market movers today

Today is another quiet day in terms of global data releases but look out for US NFIB small business optimism due out at 12:00 CET. Usually it is a tier-2 release but it might be interesting to see whether business sentiment has taken a hit from the trade uncertainty, as markets seem to fear the growth impact from protectionism.

In the Scandis, CPI inflation data for Denmark and Norway are due out this morning. We also get household consumption data from Sweden. See page 2 for more.

Selected market news

Yesterday, risk sentiments in global financial markets recovered somewhat on the back of last week's intensified focus on the US-China trade conflict. Over the weekend China told Trump in a tough article in People's Daily that it knows it has a very strong hand through its huge consumer market. Maybe Trump is realising that his usual tactics of scaring his opponent into a favourable deal is not going to work as well with China, as it has a stronger hand than most other countries. His tweet on Sunday may suggest so: 'President Xi and I will always be friends, no matter what happens with our dispute on trade. China will take down its Trade Barriers because it is the right thing to do. Taxes will become Reciprocal & a deal will be made on Intellectual Property. Great future for both countries!' . So while we still expect to see ebbs and flows, we still believe that a solution will be found that does not entail a trade war.

Overnight the positive risk sentiment in global financial markets continued amid further signs of the US-China trade dispute ending with a solution, as China's President Xi Jinping promised to open up the economy further and amongst other products lower import tariffs on cars (see Reuters ).

Yesterday, ECB's President Mario Draghi said that 'we expect the pace of the economic expansion to remain strong in 2018', while ECB's chief economist Peter Praet sees no reason to change ECB's economic outlook (see Bloomberg ). Recent indicators in the euro area have been sluggish, hence the comments might be interpreted as slightly hawkish.

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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 0.7696.

LME Copper prices rose 0.95% or $64.0/MT to $6767.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 7.42% or $146.0/MT to $2113.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7736, with the AUD trading 0.52% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data showed that Australia's NAB business confidence index registered a drop to a level of 7.0 in March, compared to a reading of 9.0 in the prior month. Additionally, the nation's NAB business conditions index eased to a level of 14.0 in March, compared to a revised level of 20.0 in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7679, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7623. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7765, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7795.

Looking forward, Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index for April, slated to release overnight, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.42% against the USD and closed at 1.2322, after the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi, expressed confidence that inflation in the common currency region would accelerate in the near-term and that the economic growth would remain strong.

On the economic front, the Euro-zone's Sentix investor confidence index dropped more-than-expected to a level of 19.6 in April, as concerns regarding a trade war weighed on investor sentiment. The index had recorded a level of 24.0 in the prior month, while markets had expected for a fall to a level of 20.8.

Separately, Germany's seasonally adjusted trade surplus slightly widened to €18.4 billion in February. The nation had registered a revised trade surplus of €17.3 billion in the previous month, while markets were expecting for a surplus of €20.1 billion.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2317, with the EUR trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2275, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2234. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2344, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2372.

With no key macroeconomic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors would focus on the US NFIB small business optimism index as well as the producer price index, both for March, slated to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.26% against the USD and closed at 1.4131, after British house prices data came in better-than-expected in March.

Data indicated that UK’s Halifax house price index climbed 1.5% MoM in March, posting its largest increase in 7 months. Market participants had anticipated the index to climb 0.1%, after recording a revised gain of 0.5% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4130, with the GBP trading a tad lower against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Data released overnight showed that the nation’s BRC retail sales across all sectors unexpectedly advanced 1.4% on an annual basis in March, compared to a rise of 0.6% in the prior month and confounding market consensus for a fall of 0.1%.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.4085, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.4039. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4170, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4209.

In absence of key macroeconomic releases in UK today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.18% against the JPY and closed at 106.73.

On the economic front, Japan's Eco Watchers Survey for the current situation unexpectedly rose to a level of 48.9 in March, defying market expectations for a fall to a level of 48.0. The index had registered a level of 48.6 in the prior month. Moreover, the nation's Eco Watchers Survey for the future outlook eased more-than-estimated to a level of 49.6 in March, compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 51.0. The index had registered a level of 51.4 in the previous month.

Other data indicated that the nation's consumer confidence index remained unchanged at a level of 44.3 in March, compared to market expectations of an advance to a level of 44.5.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 107.19, with the USD trading 0.43% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.79, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.40. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.41, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.64.

Moving ahead, traders would await Japan's flash machine tool orders for March, due to release in a while.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and 50 Hr moving average.