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Ethreum Falls As A New Asic Is Developed
Ethereum’s price declined to a new weekly low of $435 after a CNBC report said that Bitmain and other Chinese companies were developing a powerful mining surface.
CNBC analyst, Christopher Rolland, who visited China last week found that companies were developing an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) made specifically for mining ethereum. Bitmain’s product will begin shipping in the next quarter.
An ASIC is a chip that is developed for the sole purpose of mining cryptocurrencies. For example, bitcoin’s ASICs made mining available to people from around the world.
In the past, ethereum miners used GPUs to mine currencies which led to the scarcity of GPUs for gaming and graphics. The new product by Bitmain will radically change the mining industry and centralize the industry creating barriers for casual miners.
In other crypto news, Twitter followed the lead of Facebook and Google by banning cryptocurrency and ICO- related ads. The new move is intended to protect users, who have in the past lost millions of dollars through crypto frauds. In the next 30 days, the company will roll out the ban, which includes cryptocurrency exchanges and cryptocurrency wallet services.
The ETH/USD pair could remain under pressure as traders come up with ways to maneuver the latest social media regulations. It is currently trading at the lowest level since November. Traders should now pay close attention to the $400-dollar level which the pair could cross. If it does, more weaknesses could happen. Alternatively, the current lows could open up opportunities for traders who want to take a contrarian view and buy.
US GDP To Release Headlines Mid-Week
A steady stream of European and US economic data will make its way through the financial markets on Wednesday, culminating in Washington's revised Q4 GDP report.
The European session kicks off at 06:00 GMT with the GfK institute's monthly consumer confidence survey for Germany. The April report is expected to deviate very little from the previous month's tally.
Over the next two hours, traders can expect data on Spanish retail sales, Italian industrial orders and Swiss consumer confidence. At 10:00 GMT, the Confederation of Independent Business (CBI) in the UK will report on the distributed trades survey for the month of March.
Shifting gears to North America, the Commerce Department's revised US GDP report will be released at 12:30 GMT. The world's largest economy is forecast to have expanded 2.7% annually in the fourth quarter, according to a median estimate of economists. The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index is forecast to rise 1.9% during the quarter.
The core PCE index is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The central bank targets inflation at 2% and is more likely to raise interest rates when core PCE meets or exceeds that target.
Commerce economists will also report on Washington's goods trade balance at 12:30 GMT. The February deficit is projected to narrow slightly to $72.5 billion from $74.4 billion the previous month.
A report on wholesale inventories, which is expected to show monthly growth of 0.4% in February, is also scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will present its pending home sales index at 14:00 GMT. The forward-looking indicator is forecast to fall 0.2% in February after slumping 1.7% the month before.
Meanwhile, oil traders will be keeping tabs on the weekly crude inventory report courtesy of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Official EIA data is expected to show a weekly build up of 1.2 million barrels for the period ended 23 March.
EUR/USD
Europe's common currency rallied to a high of 1.2469 US on Tuesday before giving back around 50 pips to settle in the low 1.2400s. EUR/USD faces short-term support at the psychological 1.2400 level. On the opposite side of the spectrum, the new March high of 1.2475 is the next target.
GBP/USD
Like other dollar pairs, cable experienced a breakdown on Tuesday, as prices fell more than 100 pips to break below 1.4100. Cable would recover swiftly in the coming hours but failed to reclaim the Tuesday high near 1.4240. That intraday peak remains the short-term target for the bulls.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY exchange rate has been gradually recovering from Friday's multiyear low. However, at just 105.50, the pair remains firmly entrenched in negative territory. The pair is currently trading above the key 105.40 level, where it has found momentary support.
Equities Track Lower Following US Markets Overnight
General Trend:
- Asian equity markets track Tuesday's declines in the US
- Air China and BYD trade sharply lower amid earnings releases
- Samsung, Softbank and Tencent track underperformance in US tech sector
- Trump Administration said to consider legal action to limit Chinese takeovers in move to protect tech sector
- Korea Won (KRW) gains over 0.6%; China confirms recent visit by North Korean Leader, details released related to US/South Korea currency agreement
- Asian 10-year bond yields generally track declines in US Treasury yields
- HK banks said to consider ending fixed-rate mortgage offerings
- At the short end, money market rates continue to move higher in Hong Kong and Australia
- Shanghai yuan denominated oil futures trade lower by close to daily limit in third day of trading
Japan
- Nikkei 225 opened -2.0%; closed -1.3%
- Topix Securities Index -2.5%, Real Estate -2.4%, Electric Appliances -2.1%, Information & Communications -2.1%
- Japanese mega banks trade lower by over 1.5% (tracks declines in US financials)
- Softbank [9984.JP] declines over 4%, tracking global tech sell-off
- Honda [-0.3%], 7267.JP Planning to reduce Accord production by 11 days through July - US financial press
- Subaru [-3.4%], 7270.JP There are concerns that the company may have ‘systemically' falsified data related to fuel – Japanese Press
- Panasonic [6752.JP] declines over 5%; Weakness comes amid regulatory probe into Tesla car crash in California
- (JP) Japan PM Abe affirms to try and get TPP 11 approved in current session – parliament
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Very important to support free trade; volatility is very high in stock market - Parliament
- (JP) Land prices outside major cities in Japan are seeing their first increase in 26-years – Nikkei
- (JP) Former BoJ Dep Gov said additional delay to CPI target is possible - Japanese Press
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: Not considering calling for a general election; Govt plans to raise sales tax as planned
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda: Reiterates to continue with powerful easing, have taken appropriate policy at the right time; no comment if sales tax should be raised, up to the Govt and Diet
Korea
- Kospi opened -1.1%
- Kakao [-2.3%], 035720.KR To introduce its own blockchain platform by the end of this year, will not offer cryptocurrency with it - Korean press
- (KR) North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly did have meeting with China President Xi Jinping in Beijing – Nikkei
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.2% V -0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.8% V 3.0%E
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK) Ofifical: 2018 Gross national income per capita to exceed $30,000
- (KR) South Korea steel exports to US to fall 30% under new trade deal; will still be subject to 10% tariff on aluminum
- Hyundai Mobis [+6%], 012330.KR To become a holding company after split off - Korean press
China/Hong Kong
- Hang Seng opened -0.9%, Shanghai Composite -1.1%
- Hang Seng Info Tech index -3%, Services -2.2%, Consumer Goods -2.1%, Industrials -2%, Materials -1.8%, Energy -1.7%, Financials -1.3%, Property/Construction -1.2%, Telecom -1.2%
- (CN) China economic growth remained ‘strong' in Q1, outlook less certain – Beige Book
- HSBC, 0005.HK Said to withdraw fixed-rate mortgage plan in Hong Kong - HK Press
- (CN) China govt expected to announce package of policies aimed at boosting demand - China Daily
- (CN) China said to draft guidelines to increase imports - China Economic Daily
- (CN) China President Xi met with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. visiting China March 25-28th – Xinhua
- (CN) China Premier Li met with US Congress delegation led by Senator Steve Daines – Xinhua
- (CN) China President Xi top economic adviser Liu He said prevention of financial risks is a top priority- financial press
- (CN) PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Skips OMO v skips prior; Net drains CNY10B v CNY10B prior (4th consecutive skip)
- (CN) China Jan-Feb State Owned Enterprise (SOE) Net profit CNY367.3B, +25.3% /yy; Rev CNY8.3T, +11.2% y/y
- (CN) China PBoC sets yuan reference rate at 6.2785 v 6.2816 prior (2nd consecutive stronger fix)
- (CN) China PBOC Official Gao Fei: To accelerate pace for bond market opening up
Australia/New Zealand
- ASX 200 opened -0.4%; closed -0.7%
- ASX 200 Resources index -1.2%, Consumer Discretionary -1.2%, Telecom -1%,Energy -0.9%, Financials -0.8%; Utilities +1.4%
- Watpac, WTP.AU Guides FY18 (A$) underlying net loss 5-3M; starts comprehensive review of mining business including exploring sale
- (NZ) New Zealand Mar Business Confidence: -20.0 v -19.0 prior; Activity Outlook: 21.8 v 20.4 prior
- (AU) Australia sells A$500M v A$500M indicated in 3.25% April 2029 Bonds, Avg yield: 2.6337% v 2.8212% prior , bid to cover: 3.47x v 4.36x prior
- Other Asia
- (IN) India Govt launches INR2.1T bank recapitalization scheme to help state-run banks write off nonperforming loans and support economic growth – press
- (TH) Thailand Fin Min Apisak: Key interest rate should not be raised for 1 year; Central bank makes final decision on interest rate; Growth and inflation add to case to leave rate alone
North America
- US equity markets ended broadly lower: Dow -1.4%, S&P500 -1.7%, Nasdaq -2.9%, Russell 2000 -2%
- S&P500 Technology -3.2%, Consumer Discretionary -1.9%, Financials -1.9%
- Tesla [TSLA] said it had no idea what caused vehicle crash on Friday; have not been able to get logs due to damage; severity of crash due to removal of attenuator
- (CN) US govt reportedly considering using emergency law to restrict China takeovers as part of effort to protect US tech sector; Considering using the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, under which the President could declare a 'national emergency' that gives him powers to regulate commerce, block transactions, and seize assets – press
- (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +5.3M v -2.7M prior
- Looking Ahead: The third reading of US Q4 GDP to be released, along with the weekly DoE Crude Oil Inventories
Europe
- (UK) Said to be offering a hard border resolution imminently - UK press
- (EU) Reportedly Brussels considering taking €56B from ECB profits to plug budget hole after Brexit; Also said to consider a plastics tax to fill the budget gap – FT
- (DE) Germany Chancellor Merkel: advocates for a rules-based trade dialogue between US and Europe
- (SA) Saudi Energy Min Al-Falih: the OPEC/non-OPEC oil agreement is not a year-by-year project – press
Levels as of 02:00ET
- Hang Seng -1.8%; Shanghai Composite -1.3%; Kospi -1.6%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.4%; Nasdaq100 -0.8%, Dax -0.3%; FTSE100 +0.1%
- EUR 1.2421-1.2403; JPY 105.68-105.36; AUD 0.7703-0.7675;NZD 0.7275-0.7261
- Apr Gold +0.0% at $1,342/oz; May Crude Oil -0.9% at $64.64/brl; May Copper -0.1% at $2.98/lb
GBP/USD Builds Bearish Wave C in Bullish Wave 4
Currency pair GBP/USD
The GBP/USD seems to be expanding the wave 4 (green) retracement and is retesting the Fibonacci levels.Wave 5 (green) could retest the previous top (red), which is an area where price can temporarily pause or reverse.
The GBP/USD could be completing a wave C (grey) of a wave 4 (green) retracement. The Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 could act as support and bouncing levels.
Currency pair EUR/USD
The EUR/USD bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) made a bearish pullback. Price is now retesting the support trend line (blue), which could be a bouncing spot. A bearish break below support could indicate a larger wave 4 (pink).
The EUR/USD could be building a wave 4 (green) pattern as long as price stays above the Fib levels of wave 4 vs 3 (green).
Currency pair USD/JPY
The USD/JPY downtrend is stopping at the resistance trend lines (red), whichis a key decision zone for a bigger reversal or downtrend continuation.
The USD/JPY could be building a wave 2 correction but price needs to break below support (blue) before wave 3 could start.
Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD In Sideways Consolidation
Current Elliott Wave view in EURUSD suggests that the pair remains in sideways triangle Elliott Wave structurebetween 1.2153 low and 1.255 high. Triangle is a consolidation structure with ABCDE label. It has no particular trend and is usually a continuation structure. Since the previous trend in EURUSD up to 1.255 high on 2.16.2018 is bullish, this means that pair may resume the upside after the triangle is complete.
From the high of 1.255 on 2.16.2018, pair is trading sideways where Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.2153 and Intermediate wave (B) ended at 1.2476. Subdivision of Intermediate wave (B) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave W ended at 1.2446, Minor wave X ended at 1.2237, and Minor wave Y of (B) ended at 1.2476. Intermediate wave (C) is currently in progress in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 3.1.2018 low before pair turns higher in Intermediate wave (D). Near term, decline from 1.2476 high ended at 1.2371 with Minute wave ((a)). While Minute wave ((b)) bounce fails below 1.2476, expect pair to extend lower to continue the correction in Intermediate wave (C). We don’t like selling the pair.
EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart
Aussie Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.84% against the USD and closed at 0.7682.
LME Copper prices rose 2.2% or $141.5/MT to $6641.5/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.6% or $13.0/MT to $2035.0/MT.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7694, with the AUD trading 0.16% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7665, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7635. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7734, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7773.
Moving ahead, traders would look forward to Australia’s private sector credit data for February, slated to release overnight.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.
Low Inflation Warrants Patience On Monetary Policy Tightening: ECB’s Erkki Liikanen
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.35% against the USD and closed at 1.2407, following dovish comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member, Erkki Liikanen and softer-than-expected economic releases in the Euro-zone.
The ECB's policymaker, Erkki Liikanen, stated that the central bank needs to remain patient with monetary policy tightening as inflationary pressures in the common currency region may remain lower-than-expected despite robust growth.
On the macro front, the Euro-zone's final consumer confidence index remained steady at a level of 0.1 in March, confirming the preliminary print. On the contrary, the region's economic sentiment indicator eased more-than-estimated to a level of 112.6 in March, dropping for the third consecutive month and compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 113.3. The index had registered a revised level of 114.2 in the previous month.
In the US, data revealed that the CB consumer confidence index recorded an unexpected drop to a level of 127.7 in March, defying market consensus for a rise to a level of 131.0, amid gloomier outlook over the world's largest economy. The index had registered a revised level of 130.0 in the prior month.
In other economic news, the nation's Richmond Fed manufacturing index dropped more-than-estimated to a level of 15.0 in March, after recording a reading of 28.0 in the previous month and compared to market expectations for a fall to a level of 22.0.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2417, with the EUR trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2368, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2319. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2471, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2525.
Going ahead, traders would keep a close watch on Germany's GfK consumer confidence index for April, slated to release in a while. Moreover, the US 4Q GDP numbers along with advance goods trade balance and pending home sales data, both for February, due to release later in the day, will keep investors on their toes.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
Pound Trading On A Stronger Footing This Morning
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.4166.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.4186, with the GBP trading 0.14% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.4087, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3987. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4265, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4343.
Looking forward, market participants would focus on UK’s GfK consumer confidence index for March, set to release overnight.
The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
Japanese Yen Trading Lower In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the JPY and closed at 105.40.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 105.52, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 105.27, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 105.01. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 105.84, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 106.15.
Moving ahead, Japan’s retail trade and large retailers’ sales data, both for February, due to release overnight, will be on investors’ radar.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.
Swiss Franc Trading Marginally Lower, Ahead Of Swiss ZEW Expectations Survey
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.11% against the CHF and closed at 0.9462.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9464, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9430, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9395. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9504, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9543.
Ahead in the day, investors would closely monitor Switzerland’s ZEW expectations survey for March as well as KOF institute’s spring economic forecast report.
The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr moving average and showing convergence with its 50 Hr moving average.
















