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Loonie Reverses Its Losses In The Asian Session
For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.23% against the CAD and closed at 1.2882.
In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2875, with the USD trading 0.10% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2826, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2776. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2914, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2952.
Amid no macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be determined by global macroeconomic events.
The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.
AUD/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7649; (P) 0.7703; (R1) 0.7731; More...
Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point as consolidation from 0.7671 temporary low might extend. With upside limited well below 0.7915 resistance, near term outlook remains bearish. Break of 0.7671 will resume whole decline from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key support level next. However, break of 0.7915 resistance will indicate near term reversal and turn focus back to 0.8135 high instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed. In that case, AUD/USD would be heading back to 0.6826 low in medium term.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2833; (P) 1.2868; (R1) 1.2922; More....
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral. We continue to expect strong support from 1.2802 cluster support zone (38.2% retracement of 1.2246 to 1.3124 at 1.2789) to contain downside and bring rebound. Larger rise is expected to resume later. And break of of 1.3124 will target 161.8% projection of 1.2061 to 1.2916 from 1.2246 at 1.3629 next. However, firm break of 1.2789/2802 will raise the chance of rejection by 1.3065 medium term fibonacci level and bring deeper fall to 55 day EMA (now at 1.2750) and below.
In the bigger picture, we're favoring the medium term bullish case. That is, larger down trend from 1.4689 has completed at 1.2061 as a correction, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2802 support holds. However, rejection by 1.3065 will argue that price action from 1.2061 is merely a three wave corrective pattern. And 1.2061 will be put back into focus with medium term bearishness revived.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2356; (P) 1.2416 (R1) 1.2461; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. Another rise will be in favor as long as 1.2285 minor support holds. On the upside, above 1.2475 will target a test on 1.2555 high, which is close to 1.2516 key long term fibonacci level. We'd be cautious on reversal from there. But decisive break will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, below 1.2285 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.2154 and possibly below.
In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. Firm break of 1.1553 support will add more medium term bearishness. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862 in medium term.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4068; (P) 1.4156; (R1) 1.4246; More....
Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for consolidation above 1.4243 temporary top. But near term outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 1.3982 minor support holds. Above 1.4243 will target 1.4345 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend and target 61.8% projection of 1.3038 to 1.4345 from 1.3711 at 1.4519 next. On the downside, however, firm break of 1.3982 will indicate completion of rebound from 1.3711. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 1.3711.
In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4259) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggest that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9442; (P) 0.9469; (R1) 0.9493; More...
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. While rebound from 0.9186 might extend higher, we'd expect strong resistance from0.9626 key fibonacci level to limit upside. That's supported by divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. On the downside, break of 0.9432 support will indicate near term reversal and completion of rebound from 0.9186. In this case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for retesting 0.9186 low. However, sustained break of 0.9626 will carry larger bullish implications.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is seen as a medium term down trend. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 (2016 high) to 0.9186 (2018 low) at 0.9626. Sustained break there will add to the case of trend reversal and target 61.8% retracement at 0.9900 and above). However, rejection from 0.9626 will maintain medium term bearishness for another low below 0.9186.
USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 105.12; (P) 105.51; (R1) 105.71; More...
Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 104.62 extends. With 106.63 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish and further decline is expected. On the downside, break of 104.62 will resume larger fall fro 104.20 projection level first. Sustained break there will pave the way to 98.97 (2016 low). Nonetheless, break of 106.63 will indicate short term bottom and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, medium term down trend from 118.65 (2016 high) is still in progress and extending. Build up in downside momentum argues that it might be extending the whole corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 will be a key level to watch as firm break there could bring downside acceleration. And in that case, 98.97 key support level (2016 low) would at least be breached. This bearish case will now be favored as long as 108.12 support turned resistance holds.
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.54; (P) 149.51; (R1) 150.10; More...
Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral at this point and outlook is unchanged. Choppy rebound from 144.97 is seen as a corrective move. We'd expect strong resistance from limit upside and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 147.65 minor support will bring retest of 144.97 low first. However, sustained break of 150.92 will indicate near term reversal and pave the way back to retest 156.69 high.
In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up. There is bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. 146.96 support was taken out. And GBP/JPY was rejected by 55 month EMA. Break of 38.2% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 143.51 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 135.43 and below. This will now be the preferred case as long as 150.92 resistance holds.
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.20; (P) 131.00; (R1) 131.43; More....
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains neutral as it's staying in consolidation between 128.94 and 132.40. Near term outlook also stays bearish and another decline is expected. On the downside break of 128.94 will extend the whole fall from 137.49 to 126.61 medium term fibonacci level next. Nonetheless, break of 132.40 should confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 109.03 (2016 low) has completed at 137.49, on bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD. Deeper fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 109.03 to 137.49 at 126.61 first. Sustained break there would pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 119.90. On the upside, break of 132.40 resistance will indicate that the pull back is completed and bring retest of 137.49. But still, break of 137.49 is needed to confirm medium term rise resumption. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best for consolidations.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1727; (P) 1.1750; (R1) 1.1763; More...
EUR/CHF's rally from 1.1445 is still in progress and further rise should be seen to retest 1.1832 resistance. At this point, we'd remain cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another fall to extend recent corrective pattern. Though, firm break will confirm resumption of larger up trend. On the downside, break of 1.1649 support will turn focus back to 1.1445 instead.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'd still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.















