Sample Category Title

EUR/CHF starts decreasing following recent consolidation phase at the 1.17 range. Expected to head along 1.17. The pair is contained between hourly support and resistance at 1.1675 (07/03/2018 low) and 1.1735 (08/03/2018 high). The short-term technical structure suggests short-term decreasing moves.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's slowing QE program is likely to cause buying pressures on the euro, which should weigh in favour of the EUR/CHF. Support can be found at 1.0234 (20/04/2015 low).

EUR/GBP bearish consolidation phase pauses as the pair bounces back at the 0.88 range, heading along the 0.8810 range. Hourly support at 0.8812 (10/11/2017) is now broken while new hourly support is given at 0.8783 (13/12/2017). Hourly resistance at 0.8982 (28/11/2017 high) is distanced. The technical structure suggests short-term increase.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from 2015 lows. The technical structure suggests further upside pressure. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level) while support remains at 0.8304 (05/12/2016 low). The pair is trading above its 200 DMA.

AUD/USD continues its decline, currently trading at the 0.7690 range and approaching hourly support at 0.7638 (15/12/2017 low). Hourly resistance at 0.7979 (15/01/2018 high) is distanced. The technical structure suggests continued short-term downward moves.

In the long-term, the upward trend slows down after failing to reach key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 low). Key support stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low). A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD bullish momentum is fading following recent rise at 1.3125, breaking hourly resistance at 1.3117 (28/06/2017 low) and expected to head along the 1.31 range. Hourly support and resistance are now given at 1.2805 (12/03/2018 low) and 1.3308 (23/06/2017 high). The short-term technical structure suggests further short-term decrease.

In the longer term, the pair is trading between resistance point at 1.3805 (05/05/2017 high) and support at 1.2128 (18/06/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head lower. The pairs is trading above its 200 DMA.

USD/CHF is trading lower following recent rise at 0.9552 and heading for the 0.95 range. The pair currently trades between hourly support and resistance at 0.9296 (05/02/2018 low) and 0.9668 (17/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term downward moves.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support lies at 0.9072 (07/05/2015 low) while resistance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high) is distanced. The technical structure favours a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/JPY is bouncing off following recent decline at 105.61, approaching the 106 range. Hourly support and resistance are given at 105.29 (02/03/2018 low) and 107.90 (14/02/2018 high). The bearish pattern started in January 2018 is maintained. The short-term technical structure suggests short-term rising moves.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support remains at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low). A gradual rise toward the major resistance at 125.86 (05/06/2015 high) seems unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 101.20 (09/11/2016 low). The pair trades largely below its 200 DMA.

GBP/USD starts a consolidation phase along the 1.3940 range following recent increase. The pair is currently contained between hourly support and resistance at 1.3765 (09/02/2018 low) and 1.4151 (05/02/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term sideway moves.

The long-term technical pattern is reversing. The Brexit vote had paved the way for further decline but the pair is moving to 2016 highs. Long-term support and resistance are given at 1.1841 (07/10/2017 low) and 1.5018 (24/06/2016 high).

EUR/USD is decreasing following recent rise at 1.2336 and expected to decrease along the 1.2250 range. Hourly support and resistance are given at 1.2165 (17/01/2018 low) and 1.2537 (31/01/2018 high). The technical structure suggests short-term decrease.

In the longer term, the momentum is turning largely positive. We favor a continued bullish bias. Key resistance is holding at 1.2886 (15/10/2014 high) while strong support lies at 1.1554 (08/11/2017 low).

The AUDJPY pair has fallen to critical support this morning, at 81.472, which was the low from the 16th of April 2017. This level was tested two weeks ago and led to a bounce back up to resistance at 84.515 and trend line resistance. The resistances above this level on the weekly time frame come at the 50 and 100-Week MAs at 85.440 and the 200-Week MA at 86.200. This area represents a strong ceiling overhead. The 87.197 level above has been key support/resistance in the past.

Support has been broken today, with the price currently backtesting the break. If the retest holds, a drop can target down to the 80.000 level initially, with 79.126 below. Further support is found at 76.768. The 2017 low comes in at 72.472.

GER30

This Index is showing a bearish start to the week, with a break under support on the release of a suggested list of EU tariffs on imported US products. This escalation in the Trade War has rattled markets and put traders into risk-off mode. Price has fallen below key support and moving averages. On Friday, the index traded around the important 12390.00 level and in a 120-pip range, 60 pips either side of the level. This trading range was set and the breakdown today reached the 12224.50 level. Further support comes in at 12212.00, followed by the 12110.00 area and 12096.5 level.

Resistance above comes at the rising trend line combining with the 200-Hour MA at 12308.60. The 100-Hour MA is found at the 12328.20 level, with the 12337.30 level acting as important resistance before the 100-Hour MA at 12345.10.

Markets consider the end of « abenomics »

Blowback from scandal deepened today as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took responsibility for the loss of trust in his governments. However he continues to deny that he or his wife had intervened in the sale of land to a connected school operator. Only last week the finance ministry announce that documents over the discounted sales to Moritomo Gakuen has been tampered with. With suspicions swirl over a cover up sparking a political crisis, oppositions and not with public is calling for the Premier and finance minister Aso to resign. Two opinion polls published over the weekend indicated that Abe's support collapsing to its lowest since he took office in 2012, highlighting the majority of Japanese believed he was accountability for the scandal. At this point markets must contemplate the end of 'Abenomics' with multiple resignations. USDJPY fell to 105.60 low in reaction. When BoJ introduced the 1st Arrow JPY depreciated and the Nikkei index had rallied significantly. Despite fundamentals not warranting a strong JPY without Abenomics, especially considering economic fundamentals and US yield spreads, pulling support for Abenomics will likely drive JPY higher. We remain negative on USDJPY watching 104.30 support.

People's Bank of China new governor

Following Zhou Xiaochuan retirement announcement five months ago, markets were looking for newly elected People's Bank of China governor announcement of March 19. Multiple hints converged towards Liu He, Xi Jinping's former economic adviser who made a notable showing during this year's World Economic Forum edition in Davos. With the objective of maintaining monetary policy stable and to continue ongoing financial reforms within the country, the choice fell on Yi Gang, former deputy governor who joined the central bank in 1997. Adding up to its functions of monetary policy, financial reforms and the promotion of foreign investment in the country, the PBOC will be able to implement laws and regulations for the banking and insurance sectors, adding further control and stability to the Chinese economy which currently suffers from continued shadow banking and industrial overcapacity in the mid-term. On his side, Liu He is appointed as one of China's four vice-premiers and will be responsible for economic policies and financial issues.

Recent announcements had a rather smooth impact on the equity market and USD/CNY. Hong Kong Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite increase by +0.10% and +0.29%, currently valued at 31'538 and 3'279. USD/CNY is stabilizing at 6.33 (-0.08%) and expected to trade sideways in the short-term.