Sample Category Title

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.45% against the USD and closed at 1.2335, after minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) January meeting hinted that policymakers could soon indicate that it is mulling an earlier end to its stimulus programme.

Minutes showed that some policymakers pushed for considering a revision in the language pertaining to the monetary policy stance early this year. However, it was concluded that such an adjustment would be premature at this juncture, as inflation is still not moving decisively higher despite the robust pace of economic expansion. Further, officials broadly agreed that the perceived volatility in the Euro represents a source of uncertainty and need to be monitored.

On the economic front, Germany's Ifo business climate index fell to a 5-month low level of 115.4 in February, on the back of growing concerns over political uncertainty and recent market turmoil. The index had recorded a level of 117.6 in the prior month, while market participants had envisaged for a drop to a level of 117.0. Moreover, the nation's Ifo business expectations index eased to a level of 105.4 in February, hitting its lowest level in 10 months. The index had registered a reading of 108.4 in the prior month, while markets were expecting for a fall to a level of 107.9.

Also, the nation's Ifo current assessment index eased more-than-expected to a level of 126.3 in February, compared to market consensus for a drop to a level of 127.0 and following a level of 127.7 in the prior month.

Macroeconomic data revealed that first time claims for the US unemployment benefits unexpectedly eased to a level of 222.0K in the week ended 17 February, hitting its lowest level in nearly 45 years and pointing to a strong growth in the labour market. Initial jobless claims had recorded a revised reading of 229.0K in the previous week, while markets were anticipating for a rise to a level of 230.0K. Additionally, the nation's leading indicator registered a rise of 1.0% on a monthly basis in January, beating market expectations for an advance of 0.7%. In the previous month, leading indicator had registered a rise of 0.6%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2306, with the EUR trading 0.24% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2260, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2214. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2352, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2398.

Going ahead, traders would look forward to the Euro-zone's final inflation numbers for January as well as Germany's final 4Q GDP data, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.35% against the USD and closed at 1.3960, shrugging off disappointing GDP report from the UK.

In economic news, the second estimate of Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) was revised lower to 0.4% on a quarterly basis in the three months to December 2017, as household spending and business investment tailed off, thus offering latest sign of the growing hit to the economy from rising inflation. The nation's GDP had registered a similar rise in the previous quarter, while the preliminary print had indicated a rise of 0.5%.

In other economic news, the flash total business investment in the UK remained flat on a quarterly basis in 4Q 2017, compared to an advance of 0.5% in the prior quarter, while markets were anticipating for a gain of 0.4%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3948, with the GBP trading 0.09% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3874, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3799. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.4006, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.4063.

Amid no macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investors would focus on Britain's Markit manufacturing as well as construction PMs, GfK consumer confidence index, mortgage approvals and net consumer credit data, all set to release next week.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.6% against the JPY and closed at 106.70.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 106.90, with the USD trading 0.19% higher against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Japan's national consumer price index (CPI) accelerated 1.4% YoY in January, surging to its highest level since July 2014. Market participants had envisaged the CPI to climb 1.3%, after recording a rise of 1.0% in the previous month.

The pair is expected to find support at 106.46, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 106.03. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.47, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.05.

Moving ahead, Japan's jobless rate, retail trade and consumer confidence index, all due to release next week, would keep investors' on their toes.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.67% against the CHF and closed at 0.9326.

In economic news, Switzerland's industrial production grew 8.7% on an annual basis in the October-December 2017 period. In the previous quarter, industrial production had recorded a revised gain of 9.2%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 0.9345, with the USD trading 0.2% higher against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9310, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9276. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9394, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9444.

Looking forward, market participants would eye Switzerland's 4Q GDP, ZEW economic sentiment index, real retail sales and manufacturing PMI, all slated to release next week.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.07% against the CAD and closed at 1.2704.

The Canadian Dollar fell against the USD, after Canada's retail sales suffered an unexpected drop in December.

Data indicated that Canada's retail sales surprisingly declined 0.8% on a monthly basis in December, dipping by the most in nearly 2 years and confounding market estimates for a flat reading. Retail sales had climbed by a revised 0.3% in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2717, with the USD trading 0.1% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2674, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2632. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2757, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2798.

Ahead in the day, all eyes would be on Canada's consumer price inflation data for January.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2276; (P) 1.2314 (R1) 1.2369; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point as it's staying in range of 1.2205/2555. On the upside, break of 1.2555 will revive the bullish case of up trend resumption and target 100% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.3075. However, break of 1.2205 will confirm rejection by 1.2516 key fibonacci level and trend reversal.

In the bigger picture, key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 remains intact despite attempts to break. Hence, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Rejection from 1.2516 will maintain long term bearish outlook and keep the case for retesting 1.0039 alive. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3878; (P) 1.3933; (R1) 1.4010; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 1.4144 will extend the rebound from 1.3764 and target a test on 1.4345 resistance. Break there will resume larger up trend and target long term trend line resistance (now at 1.5105). On the downside, below 1.3764 will extend the correction from 1.4345 to 1.3651 resistance turned support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3038 support holds, medium term outlook in GBP/USD will remains bullish. Rise from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from 2007 high at 2.1161. Further rally would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. However, GBP/USD fails to sustain above 55 month EMA (now at 1.4279) so far. Break of 1.3038 support, will suggests that rise from 1.1946 has completed and will turn outlook bearish for retesting this low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9298; (P) 0.9354; (R1) 0.9382; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it's bounded in consolidation from 0.9186. With 0.9469 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Break of 0.9186 will extend the larger down trend to 0.9115 medium term projection level next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9469 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 55 day EMA (now at 0.9527) and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.0342 is developing into a medium term down trend. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9420 from 1.0037 at 0.9115. Break will target 161.8% projection at 0.8545. In any case, sustained trading above 55 day EMA is needed to be the first sign of medium term reversal. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.31; (P) 107.03; (R1) 107.48; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 105.54 is extending. Outlook remains bearish with 108.27 resistance intact and deeper fall is expected. Break of 105.54 will extend the larger fall from 118.65 and target 100% projection of 118.65 to 108.12 from 114.73 at 104.20 next. However, break of 107.72 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will target 110.47 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. The solid break of 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. now suggests that the pattern from 125.85 high is possibly extending. Deeper fall could be seen through 98.97 key support (2016 low). This bearish case will now be favored as long as 110.47 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7804; (P) 0.7832; (R1) 0.7873; More...

No change in AUD/USD's outlook as it's still bounded in range of 0.7758/7988. Intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 0.7758 will resume the fall from 0.8135 and target 0.7500 key near term support. On the upside, above 0.7988 will extend the rebound to retest 0.8135.At this point, there is no strong case for a range breakout yet and 0.7500/8135 could hold for a while.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.6826 is seen as a corrective move. It might still extend higher but we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 to limit upside to bring long term down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7500 support will now be an important signal that such corrective rebound is completed.