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Canada’s Manufacturing Sales Surged By The Most In Over 2 Years In November

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.6% against the CAD and closed at 1.2483 on Friday.

On the economic front, Canada's manufacturing shipments rebounded 3.4% on a monthly basis in November, posting its biggest increase in more than 2 years and topping market consensus for an advance of 2.0%. In the prior month, manufacturing shipments had dropped by a revised 0.6%.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.2484, with the USD trading a tad higher against the CAD from Friday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2420, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2357. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2527, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2571.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

EUR/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1729; (P) 1.1752; (R1) 1.1792; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF stays neutral first. As 1.1683 support holds, near term outlook stays bullish for further rally. Again, considering relatively weak upside momentum, in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance below 1.2 handle to bring medium term reversal. Break of 1.1683 support will be a early sign of reversal and turn focus to 1.1602 support.

In the bigger picture, while a medium term top could be around the corner, there is no change in the larger outlook. That is, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress and would extend. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we'll hold on to this bullish view and expect further rise to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000 and above. Though, we'll reassess the outlook if 1.1198 is firmly taken out.

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8796; (P) 0.8820; (R1) 0.8839; More...

As noted before, rebound from 0.8688 could have completed 0.8928 already. Deeper decline would be seen back to retest 0.8688 first. Firm break there would resume whole fall from 0.9305 to retest 0.8303/12 key support zone. And, this will now be the favored as long as 0.8928 resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of deeper fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

EUR/GBP 4 Hours Chart

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5263; (P) 1.5294; (R1) 1.5318; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral at this point. . On the upside, break of 1.5446 resistance will revive the case that correction from 1.5770 has completed at 1.5153. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.5770 first. However, break of 1.5153 will resume the fall from 1.5770 to 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.5770 so far suggests that it's corrective in nature. That is, medium term rise from 1.3624 is not completed yet. Break of 1.5770 will extend the rise to retest 1.6587 (2015 high). However, considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, sustained break of 1.4949 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5770 at 1.4950) will indicate medium term reversal. And there is prospect of retesting 1.3624 low in that bearish case.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 152.91; (P) 153.65; (R1) 154.21; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 154.56 temporary top. Outlook will stay bullish as long as 150.18 support holds. Above 154.56 will extend the medium term up trend to 61.8% projection of 139.29 to 152.82 from 146.96 at 155.32. Break will target 100% projection at 160.49

In the bigger picture, as long as 146.96 key support holds, medium term outlook remains bullish. Rise from 122.36 is in favor to extend to 61.8% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 167.78. However, break of 146.96 support will indicate trend reversal. And there would be prospect of retesting 122.36 in that case.

GBP/JPY 4 Hours Chart

GBP/JPY Daily Chart

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2188; (P) 1.2241 (R1) 1.2269; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidation below 1.2322. As long as 1.2088 resistance turned support holds, near term outlook remains bullish and another rise is expected. Above 1.2322 will extend the medium term rise to next key fibonacci level at 1.2494/2516. We'd expect strong resistance from there to bring reversal. Meanwhile, break of 1.2088 will argue that EUR/USD has topped earlier than expected. In that case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.1915 support first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0339 medium term bottom is still seen as a corrective move for the moment. Therefore, in case of further rally, we'd be expect 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 to limit upside and bring reversal. That is also close to 61.8% projection of 1.0569 to 1.2091 from 1.1553 at 1.2494. Break of 1.1553 support will confirm completion of the rise. However, sustained break of 1.2516 will carry larger bullish implication and target 61.8% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.3862.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3810; (P) 1.3878; (R1) 1.3917; More.....

As long as 1.3741 minor support holds, further rise is expected in GBP/USD. Sustained trading above 1.3835 key resistance could trigger upside acceleration to 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3651 from 1.3038 at 1.4581 next. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 1.3741 will indicate short term topping. More importantly, that would suggest rejection from 1.3835 and turn bias to the downside for 1.3457.

In the bigger picture, sustained break of 1.3835 key resistance level will indicate that rebound from 1.1946 is at least correcting the long term down from from 2007 high at 2.1161. In that case, further rise should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466. Nonetheless, rejection from 1.3835 will maintain medium term bearishness and thus, the risk retesting 1.1946 ahead.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9566; (P) 0.9602; (R1) 0.9668; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral at this point. Near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9698 resistance holds. Below 0.9535 will extend the fall from 1.0037 and target a test on 0.9420 low. Nonetheless, firm break of 0.9698 will be the first sign of near term reversal. And, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9844 resistance for confirmation.

In the bigger picture, range trading continues between 0.9420/1.0342. At this point, 0.9420 appears to be a strong support level. Therefore, in case of decline attempt, we don't expect a firm break of this level. Nonetheless, strong break of 1.0342 is also needed to confirm upside momentum. Otherwise, medium term outlook will stay neutral.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.48; (P) 110.80; (R1) 111.12; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. On the upside, break of 111.47 will affirm the case that correction from 114.73 is finished with three waves down to 110.18. Intraday bias should then be turned back to the upside for 113.38 resistance for confirmation. However, below 110.18 will extend the correction lower. But we'd again look for bottoming signal in next fall.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2425; (P) 1.2466; (R1) 1.2534; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues. Near term outlook stays mildly bearish as long as 1.2623 support turned resistance holds. Brea of 1.2354 will extend the decline to retest 1.2061 low. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2623 will argue that the fall has completed and turn bias back to the upside for 1.2919 resistance.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 1.2061 is likely completed completed at 1.2919, rejected by 55 week EMA (now at 1.2850) and kept below 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065. The development also suggests that long term fall from 1.4689 is not completed yet. Decisive break of 1.2061 low will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.1424. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.2919 resistance holds.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart