Sample Category Title

GBPUSD - The pair may be hesitating but still faces corrective recovery threats. Support lies at the 1.3100 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3050 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3000 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.2950 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.3200 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.3250 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3300 level followed by the 1.3350 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face further upside pressure on corrective recovery.

Notes/Observations

Continued optimism over the prospect of US tax reform feeding into global sentiment; Nikkei hits 25-year high

Germany's industrial production cools from its recent fast pace but resurgence expected

Overnight

Asia:

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left ist Cash Rate Target unchanged at 1.50% (as expected). Rates was continuing to support the economy. Higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to continued subdued price pressures. inflation was likely to remain low for some time

Japan Fin Min Aso: Will not pursue Free Trade Agreement (FTA) to reduce US trade deficit. Situation is different from 1980’s when trade friction strained bilateral relations

Europe:

Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem (outgoing) commented following Eurogroup meeting in Brussels that was confident about banking union decision in June. Many Euro Zone ministers believed the region should have some form of budget for stabilization purpose. Little debate on ECB proposal on new NPL treatment; believe there was general support for NPL treatment, Agreement that they need to ensure that the NPL situation in Italian banks is not repeated

UK Govt to submit legislation on Tuesday, Nov 7th needed to let Britain pursue independent trade policy once it leaves the EU

Americas:

Fed’s Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): post crisis regulatory rules have made system stronger; Volcker rule could be modified to be less burdensome. Reiterated that Fed has been surprised by how inflation has acted this year

Fed's Williams (moderate, non-voter): Economic uncertainties may make price level targeting good policy

Energy:

Saudi Arabia Gulf affairs minister Thamer al-Sabhan: Aggression by Hezbollah were considered acts of a declaration of war against Saudi Arabia by Lebanon

Economic Data

(NL) Netherlands Oct CPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior

(NL) Netherlands Oct CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +0.2% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e

(DE) Germany Sept Industrial Production M/M: -1.6% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 4.4%e

(NO) Norway Sept Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 12.3% v 6.7% prior

(TW) Taiwan Oct CPI Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.2%e

(TW) Taiwan Oct Trade Balance: $5.2V $5.9Be; Exports Y/Y: 3.0% v 7.0%e; Imports Y/Y: 0.1% v 2.1%e

(CH) Swiss Oct Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 741.5B v 724.5B prior

(UK) Oct Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; 3M/3M: 4.5% v 4.5%e

(DE) Germany Oct Construction PMI: 53.3 v 53.4 prior

(SE) Sweden Oct Budget Balance (SEK): 6.7B v 8.4B prior

(CN) China Oct Foreign Reserves: $3.109T v 3.110Te (9th straight increase)

(EU) Euro Zone Sept Retail Sales M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.8%e

Fixed Income Issuance:

(EU) EFSF opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 10-year and 30-year bonds via syndicate

(LT) Lithuania opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 10-year and 30-year bonds

(UK) DMO opened book to sell 0.125% Aug 2048 Inflation-linked Gilts (UKTi); guidance seen +1.0-1.5bps to 0.75% Nov 2047 UKTi

(CH) Switzerland sold CHF428.2M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.975% v -0.967% prior

(AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) sold total €1.15B vs.€1.15B indicated in 2022 and 2027 RAGB bonds

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 flat at 396.6, FTSE -0.2% at 7551, DAX +0.2% at 13491, CAC-40 flat at 5508, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 10291, FTSE MIB +0.2% at 23036, SMI -0.3% at 9258, S&P 500 Futures flat]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes:

European Indices trade mixed coming off the earlier highs after a strong showing in Asia. Corporate earnings remained the dominant theme, with notable earners including BMW which missed EBIT forecasts, while Dialog Semi trades sharply lower after guiding Q4 Rev below consensus. Elsewhere ABF, Maersk, Zalando, and G4S all trade lower after earnings, dragging on indices.

Looking ahead notable earner include Dean Foods, Valeant and Tapestry (Formally Coach).

Equities

Consumer discretionary [Pandora [PNDORA.DK] -1.5% (Earnings), Adecco [ADEN.CH] -1.7% (Earnings), ABF [ABF.UK] -3.5% (Earnings), G4S [GFS.UK] -6.3% (Earnings)]

Materials: [Rheinmetal [RHM.DE] -1% (Earnings)]

Industrials: [Maersk [MAERSKB.DK] -5.6% (Earnings)]

Financials: [BMW [BMW.DE] -2.1% (Earnings)]

Technology: [Dialog Semiconductor [DLG.DE] -6.4% (Earnings)]

Energy: [Siemens Gamesa [SGRE.ES] -7.1% (Earnings)]

Speakers

ECB's Draghi: Little evidence that negative interest rates were undermining banking sector profitability. Saw no signs of credit-fueled housing bubbles but local pockets of risks hademerged; Supervisors and macroprudential authorities were actively taking steps to counter them. European supervision and monetary policy were complementary

ECB's Lautenschaeger: noted that it was correct to reduce bond purchases from January; would have liked to see a clear exit from QE. EU was making progress on bank resolution

ECB's Nouy (SSM chief): Main NPL weakness seen in small-medium sized banks. Assessment on NPL was a case-by-case basis. Bad bank could be a good tool and that 20 banks had applied or had something asses for Brexit

Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen: Competitiveness has improved while the economy is recovering

Various European officials and finance ministers comments ahead of EfoFin meeting

EU Moscovici: Must speed up fight against tax evasion and that the EU needed a tax haven black list in 2017

France Fin Min Le Maire: Determined to improve tax situation in EU and must sanction States that did not follow tax rules

Bank of Italy (BOI) Dep Director General: Govt must not soften pension reform

Italy Stats Agency (ISTAT) Monthly Economic Note: Recovery is strengthening

South Korea President Moon held joint press conference with Trump and noted that had conversation on US-Korean alliance; agreed to act firmly against North Korea. To expand the deployment of US strategic assets and would continue to share military expense. Both US and South Korea agreed that North Korea should give up nuclear weapons

President Trump noted that the meeting was about economic and security matters . Confident that US/South Korea could reach a free and fair reciprocal trade deal. To act with urgency and determination with North Korea. Reiterated his call that all nations (including Russia and China) should help rein in North Korea. Wanted to use all available tools short of military force on NK but the US will defend itself

President Trump commented along South Korea President Moon (pre-meeting) that North Korea and trade among issues to be discussed. North Korea issue would be front and center and that the US would negotiate good deals with South Korea

Russia Central Bank 1st Dep Gov Tulin stated that did not rule out bailout of major banks

Bank of Korea (BOK) Oct Minutes: Vote was not unanimous to keep policy steady. Lee Il-Houng was a dissenter and sought a 25bps rate hike. Noted that negative output gap had disappeared and that the accommodative policy had side effects. Dissenter saw GDP growth close to 3.0% in 2018, fiscal spending to support domestic demand. Another member called for rate hike in near term

China FX Regulator SAFE: FX Reserves to remain overall stable

Currencies

USD exhibited continued strength in the session aided by continued optimism over the prospect of US tax reform

EUR/USD hit 3-month lows as the pair tested below 1.1570 as dealers cited low euro zone bond yields as one factor wighing upon the Euro.

USD/JPY above 114.25 aided by the highest close in over 25 years in the Nikkei225 Index

Fixed Income

Bund futures trade at 163.02 down 11 ticks, as yields cling near 2-month lows as volumes stay anemic over the past two trading days. Support lies at 162.00, followed by 161.50. Resistance stands initially at 163.51, followed by 164.25.

Gilt futures trade at 125.03 down 8 ticks and still near the October high. Continued upside eyeing 125.75 then 126.47. Downside targets include 124.90 then 124.24.

Tuesday’s liquidity report showed Monday’s excess liquidity rose to €1.8645T from €1.860T and use of the marginal lending facility climbed to €197M from €168M

Corporate issuance saw $11.1B come to the primary market via 6 issuers, headlined by Apple’s six-part $7B bond offering.

Looking Ahead

(IL) Israel Oct Foreign Currency Balance: No est v $111.1B prior

(RO) Romania Central Bank (NBR) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 1.75%

(UK) Last Day of Commons Session before November Recess

(EU) EU Finance Ministers meet in Brussels (EfoFin) along with ECB’s Constancio (Portugal)

05.30 (UK) Weekly John Lewis LFL sales data

05:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Main Financing Tender (MRO) tender

05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell in 3-month Bills

05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €500M in 0.5% Apr 2030 Inflation-linked bonds (Bundei)

05:30 (BE) Belgium Debt Agency (BDA) to sell 3-Month and 12-Month Bills

06:30 (CL) Chile Oct Trade Balance: $0.4Be v $0.7B prior; Total Exports: $5.8Be v $5.8B prior; Total Imports: $5.2Be v $5.0B prior; Copper Exports: No est v $3.2B prior

06:30 (CL) Chile Oct International Reserves: No est v $37.7B prior

06:30 (EU) ESM to sell €1.5B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: % v -0.6304%% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 4.6x prior (Oct 3rd 2017)

06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

07:00 (CL) Chile Sept Nominal Wage M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.0%e v 6.0% prior

07:10 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Floden

07:45 (US) Weekly Goldman Economist Chain Store Sales

08:00 (PL) Poland Oct Official Reserves: No est v $111.4B prior

08:00 (RO) Romania Central Bank gov Isarescu to hold post rate decision press conference

08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:30 (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade Auction: Dairy Trade price index

08:30 (SI) Slovenia to sell 12-month Bills

08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Sales

09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves

09:00 (MX) Mexico Aug Gross Fixed Investment: +0.2%e v -2.5% prior

09:00 (RU) Russia announces weekly OFZ bond auction (held on Wed)

09:30 (TR) Turkey Oct Cash Budget Balance (TRY): No est v -9.9B prior

09:30 (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Skingsley

10:00 (US) Sept JOLTS Job Openings: 6.053Me v 6.082M prior

11:00 (FR) ECB’s Villeroy (France) in Lyon

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills

12:00 (US) DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook

12:35 (US) Fed’s Quarles at clearing house conference

12:55 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz in Montreal

13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes

13:30 (UK) BOE’s Taylor in London

14:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Poloz holds press conference

14:30 (US) Fed Chair Yellen at award ceremony

15:00 (US) Sept Consumer Credit: $17.5Be v $13.1B prior

15:00 (MX) Mexico Citibanamex Survey of Economists

16:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct ANZ Truckometer Heavy M/M: No est v -1.5% prior

16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories

Crude oil has surged and set up a new resistance at 56.28 (06/11/2017 high). The commodity is trading at 1-year high. Expected to show further shot-term bearish consolidation. Indeed the technical structure has a history of decent consolidation phase.

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. For the time being the pair lies in an upside momentum. Strong support lies at 35.24 (05/04/2016) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

Silver is heading higher. Hourly support can be found at 16.60 (27/10/2017 low). Hourly resistance is given at 17.46 (13/10/2017 high). Additional support can be found at 16.13 (06/10/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is rater negative. Further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Gold remains weak. The technical structure confirms a longer consolidation phase. Support lies at a distance at 1251 (08/08/2017 high). Resistance is now located at 1288 (20/10/2017).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Bitcoin is now consolidating after setting-up a new all-time high for 4 consecutive days. The technical structure shows a tremendous positive short-term momentum. Hourly support can be located at 6027 (30/10/2017 low). Strong support stands very far at 2975 (22/08/2017 low). In the short-term, the digital currency should continue rising.

In the long-term, the digital currency has had an exponential growth. There are decent likelihood that the asset will reach $10'000.

EUR/CHF is back within former uptrend channel. Support is given at 1.1610 (27/10/2017 low). Rising channel suggests further bullish momentum.

In the longer term, the technical structure has reversed. Strong resistance is given at 1.20 (level before the unpeg). Yet, the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/GBP is consolidating after the sharp increase. As long as prices are below the resistance at 0.9046 (05/09/2017 high), the shortterm technical structure is biased to the downside. Hourly support is given at a distance at 0.8733 (01/11/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 (psychological level).

AUD/USD is ready to bounce back but downside pressures are still lively. Hourly resistance is given at a distance at 0.7897 (13/10/2017 high). Expected to show renewed pressures towards key support at 0.7571 (05/07/2017 low).

In the long-term, the trend is turning positive. Key supports stands at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8164 (14/05/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

USD/CAD is weakening after set-up a resistance at 1.2917 (27/10/2017 low). This suggests an extension of bullish momentum. Hourly support lies at 1.2331 (26/09/2017 high). Expected to show continued short-term bearish pressures.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low). Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair is likely to head further lower.