Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 0.9734

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback retreated to 0.9696 yesterday, as dollar found support there and has rebounded, suggesting another test of resistance at 0.9770-73 cannot be ruled out, however, break there is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and revive bullishness for the move from 0.9421 low to to extend gain to 0.9800-10 but overbought condition should limit upside to 0.9840-50.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below said support at 0.9696 would suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of 0.9681 support, break there would add credence to this view, bring correction of recent rise towards support at 0.9642 which is likely to hold on first testing.

GBP/USD - 1.3413

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.3500, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3535

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.3500, Target: 1.3380, Stop: 1.3535

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has recovered after intra-day brief fall to 1.3349 in London morning, suggesting consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 1.3435-40 is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3470 and renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.3500-10, bring another decline later. A break of said support at 1.3349 would signal recent decline is still in progress and may extend weakness to previous resistance at 1.3329, then towards 1.3300. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell cable on further subsequent recovery as 1.3500 should hold. Above resistance at 1.3514 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.3535-40 but resistance at 1.3571 should remain intact.

EUR/USD - 1.1772

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1810, Target: 1.1710, Stop: 1.1845

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1810, Target: 1.1710, Stop: 1.1845

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has rebounded after holding above support at 1.1717, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery towards resistance at 1.1811 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge there and bring another decline later, below said support at 1.1717 would signal the decline from 1.2093 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.1700 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below previous support at 1.1662 and reckon 1.1625-30 would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as resistance at 1.1811 should limit upside and bring another decline. Above previous support at 1.1832-38 (now resistance) should hold and bring another decline later. Above resistance at 1.1862 would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 1.1896 (another previous support). 

USD/JPY - 112.68

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback staged a strong rebound after yesterday’s retreat to 112.38, break of this week’s high at 113.26 is needed to revive bullishness and signal recent upmove has resumed, then further gain to previous resistance at 113.58 would follow but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 113.75-80 and reckon 114.00-10 would remain intact, bring correction later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside. Below 112.50 would prolong consolidation and bring another retreat to 112.38, however, only a drop below thios support would signal top has been formed, bring retracement of recent rise to the lower Kumo (now at 112.22) and then towards 111.75-80 but support at 111.47 should remain intact.

The USD/CAD is in a strong uptrend. However traders need to pay attention to Trade balance data release today which measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. From the current standpoint 1.2455-70 is the POC zone ( PPC, W H4, ATR pivot, 14.6) and during strong trend 14.6 is known to reject the price. However on a deeper retracement that might happen after the news depending on the actual result, the USD/CAD could drop to POC2 (D L4, previous week's high, EMA89, 38.2, W H3) 1.2370-95. Targets on a bounce are 1.2560 and 1.2630. 1.2325 needs to hold.

W L3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Support)

W H3 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Weekly Interim Resistance)

W H4 - Weekly Camarilla Pivot (Strong Weekly Resistance)

D H4 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Very Strong Daily Resistance)

D L3 - Daily Camarilla Pivot (Daily Support)

D L4 - Daily H4 Camarilla (Very Strong Daily Support)

POC - Point Of Confluence (The zone where we expect price to react aka entry zone)

CRUDE OIL - With the commodity bullish and resuming its broader medium term uptrend on Thursday, further strength is expected in the days ahead. On the downside, support resides at the 52.00 level where a break will expose the 51.50 level. A cut through here will set the stage for a run at the 51.00 level. Further down, support resides at the 50.50 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 53.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 53.50 level. A break above here will aim at the 54.00 level and then the 54.50 level followed by the 55.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. All in all, CRUDE OIL remains biased to the upside medium term.

**Notes/Observations**

• German inflation flat to slightly higher, while Spanish inflation beats expectations
• BoE Carney comments soften Cable as the BoE will aim to achieve CPI goal in smooth way
• Higher Bond yields push financials higher

Overnight

Asia:

• RBNZ left rates unchanged as expected, noting that weaker currency is best for dealing with tradables inflation
• Hong Kong property names were weaker on another Chinese city adding property curves.
• Japan PM Abe dissolved lower house to make way for snap elections announced for 22nd Oct
• Toshiba sale of chip finally signed to Bain led consortium for ¥2T

Europe:

• German regional CPI reading largely flat to slightly higher m/m; Spanish prelim CPI comes in stronger
• Slight weakness in Cable as BoE Gov Carney says will aim to achieve CPI goal in smooth way, will support economy though Brexit adjustment; cannot prevent weaker real income growth likely to accompany Brexit
• German Economic Institutes Fall Forecast: Raises 2017 GDP +1.9% (prior 1.5%); 2018 GDP 2.0% (prior 1.8%) as speculated; notes In this environment, the ECB should prepare for the exit from its very expansive monetary policy and in particular from its unconventional measures.
• Swedish Retail giant H&M reports results which missed estimates, shares fall over 5%

Americas

• US President Trump proposes US tax overhaul in line with speculation; doubts remain over deficit following proposed tax cuts

Economic data

• (DE) GERMANY SEPT CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 0.1% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9% PRIOR
• (DE) GERMANY SEPT CPI SAXONY M/M: 0.2% V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9% PRIOR
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.8% prior
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.2% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8% prior
• (DE) Germany Sept CPI Hesse M/M: 0.3% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.8% prior
• (EU) EURO ZONE SEPT BUSINESS CLIMATE INDICATOR: 1.34 V 1.12E; FINAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1.2 V -1.2E
• Economic Confidence: 113.0 v 112.0e
• (ES) SPAIN SEPT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.8%E V 1.6%E
• (DE) GERMANY OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 10.8 V 11.0E
• (ES) Spain Aug Adjusted Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.0%e; Retail Sales (unadj): 1.7% v 0.7% prior
• **Fixed Income Issuance:
• (IT) ITALY DEBT AGENCY (TESORO) SELLS TOTAL €4.5B VS. €3.5-4.5B INDICATED IN 5-YEAR AND 10-YEAR BTP BONDS

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

**Equities**

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.1% at 385.8, FTSE +0.1% at 7319, DAX +0.4% at 12701 , CAC-40 +0.2% at 5293 , IBEX-35 +0.3% at 10399 , FTSE MIB +0.1% at 22653, SMI +0.2% at 9117 , S&P 500 Futures flat]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European stocks opened slightly higher and remained in the same direction as the session; financials supported by bank shares moving higher on bond yields; materials stocks pulled own by commodity prices, including oil to impact energy stocks; plethora of speakers kept macro attention; upcoming earnings in the US session include Accenture and Blackberry

Equities

• Consumer discretionary: Applus APPS.ES -2.6% (acquisition), Hennes & Mauritz HMB.SE -5.1% (results), Orpea ORP.FR -2.3 (analyst action), TUI TUI.UK -1.1% (results)
• Consumer staples: Imperial Brands IMB.UK -2.6% (trading update)
• Financials: Ageas AGS.BE -1.4% (analyst action), Coface COFA.FR +3.9% (results), Mapfre MAP.ES -2.1% (analyst action)
• Industrials: Balfour Beatty BBY.UK +4.3% (analyst action), Flughafen Zurich FHZN.CH +2.1% (analyst action), Hapag-Lloyd HLAG.DE +0.3% (capital increase)
• Healthcare: Abivax ABVX.FR +8.9% (positive study results), Bavarian Nordic BAVA.DK +3.2% (contract)
• Technology: Agfa Gevaert AGFB.BE +6.8% (analyst action), Dassault Systems DSY.FR +0.3%(acquisition), Rocket Internet RKET.DE +5.6% (asset sale, results)
• Utilities: Direct Energie DIREN.FR -5.5% (results)

Speakers

• (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Gov Carney: Will aim to achieve CPI goal in smooth way; Will support economy through Brexit adjustment - speaks at conf in London
• (FI) ECB's Liikanen (Finland): ECB inflation target is symmetrical; forward guidance now permanent tool of ECB policy
• (EE) ECB's Hansson (Estonia): Rates to remain low at least until QE is continuing ; Euro FX rate is still close to historic average
• (EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium): We want sustainable inflation not due to seasonal data - speaks in Berlin
• (EU) EU's Moscovici: EU has made major progress on banking union - comments from Stockholm -German Economic institute "In this environment, the ECB should prepare for the exit from its very expansive monetary policy and in particular from its unconventional measures; ECB should in short term announce tapering of Bond-buying programme from beginning of next year if economic conditions remain favorable
• (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves: monetary policy needs to remain expansionary - comment from Parliament
• (UK) PM May: Never any disagreement about aim of BOE policy - BOE conf
• Much work to do to restore UK finances to health
• (JP) Japan Gov Koike: wants to study phasing out Japan nuclear power by 2030

Currencies

• GBPUSD fell after soothing comments from BoE Gov Carney, as the pair finds support at 1.3345. Resistance stands just below 1.34

Fixed Income

• Bund futures trade at 160.63 down 31 as the global duration slide continues, Treasuries fueled losses in large volumes. Continued downside targets 160.25 while upside resistance stands initially at 162.07, followed by 163.27.
• Gilt futures trade at 123.45 down 22 ticks as the markets focus on BOE Gov Carney and PM May's comments at the BOE conference. Continued downside eyeing 123.06. Upside targets 124.90 then 125.24.
• Thursday's liquidity report showed Tuesday's excess liquidity fell to €1.723T from €1.725T and use of the marginal lending facility rose to €131M from €49M.
• Corporate issuance saw $5.5B come to market via 3 issuers headlined by Credit Agricole $1.5B senior notes and EQT $3.5B 4-part senior unsecured note offering

Looking Ahead

• 05:30 (ZA) South Africa Aug PPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.1%e v 3.6% prior
• 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept FGV Inflation IGPM M/M: 0.5%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.5%e v -1.7% prior
• 08:00 (DE) Germany Sept Preliminary CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.8% prior
• 08:05 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index
• 08:30 (US) Aug Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$65.1B v -$63.9B prior
• 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Annualized (3rd reading) Q/Q: 3.2%e v 3.0% prelim; Personal Consumption: 3.3%e v 3.3% prelim
• 08:30 (US) Q2 Final GDP Price Index: 1.0%e v 1.0% prelim; Core PCE Q/Q: 0.9%e v 0.9% prelim
• 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: No est v K prior; Continuing Claims: No est v M prior
• 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales
• 08:30 (US) Aug Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior
• 09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Sept 22nd: No est v $ prior
• 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
• 11:00 (US) Sept Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 14e v 16 prior
• 14:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banxico) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 7.00%
• 15:00 (AR) Argentina Aug Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 5.9% prior

The EURUSD pair has started to recover yesterday's losses during the European trading session, after traders failed to push price below its key 200-week moving average, whilst the U.S dollar index pulled back from five-week trading highs.

After three days of heavy trading losses, the intraday sentiment surrounding the euro currency is currently neutral, ahead of German inflation data, with sellers and buyers currently battling around the 1.1770 region.

Earlier, the EURUSD pair found intraday support from the 1.1720 level, which further encouraged euro buying interest as the sellers failed to push-price below the former daily price-low.

A move above the 1.1800 level should help lift sentiment surrounding the pair, whilst a move below 1.1720 should encourage selling towards 1.1660.

Key intraday support for the EURUSD pair is found at the pairs 50-hour moving average, at 1.1764, and the pairs daily pivot, at 1.1751. Below the daily pivot, the 1.1720 and 1.1716 levels become critical intraday support.

Key intraday resistance is located at 1.1780 and the key 1.1800 level. Once above the 1.1800 level, the pairs 100-hour moving average offers strong intraday resistance, at 1.1833.

The USDJPY pair has slipped below the support, at 112.71, with today's pullback driven by a move lower in the U.S dollar index and a bearish double-top pattern formation, on the lower time-frame price-charts.

On an intraday basis, the sentiment surrounding the USDJPY pair is bearish below the 112.71 level, with a deeper technical pullback expected while trading below this key support level.

Traders will now look to the U.S trading session, where we see the release of the latest revision of second quarter United States Gross domestic product.

The U.S dollar index is also likely to dominate the intraday trend on the USDJPY pair, especially the 93.00 level on the U.S dollar index and the index's key 200-week moving average, at 92.82.

Key intraday technical support is found at the pairs 50-hour moving average, at 112.60, and the recent pullback low, at 112.38. Below 112.38, further support is found at 112.20 and the USDJPY weekly pivot, at 111.90.

To the upside, key intraday resistance is found at 112.70-79, with further technical resistance above 112.79 located at 113.02, 113.25 and 113.57.

The CAC index is unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, the index is at 5,283.75, up 0.03% on the day. There are no French or eurozone indicators on the schedule. On Friday, France releases Consumer Spending and Preliminary CPI.

French President Emmanuel Macron wants to further integrate the eurozone, and has proposed that the bloc should have its own budget and finance minister. On Tuesday, Macron went as far as proposing that Germany and French completely integrate their markets and corporate rules by 2024. However, Macron may find serious resistance to his plan in post-election Germany, where a weakened Angela Merkel will have her work cut out cobbling together a coalition. Merkel made a first move by appointing her former finance minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble as president of parliament. This astute move clears the path for the pro- business FDP party, which has insisted on the powerful finance portfolio, to join a coalition with Merkel. The FDP is fiscally hawkish and is strongly opposed to Germany continuing to finance weaker eurozone members, such as Greece. If the FDP does take part in the government, Merkel may have to shift away from her pan-European vision, which could ice Macron's proposal to further integrate the eurozone.

On Tuesday, German industrial giant Siemens AG announced that it would merge rail operations with Alstom SA, a French train manufacturer. The merger is aimed as a response to growing competition in the rail transport sector, particularly from the Chinese state-owned railroad, CRRC. The merger still needs to be approved by regulators, but is already being hailed as an important deal which will strengthen economic ties between France and Germany and will help Europe compete on the global stage. French finance minister finance minister Bruno Le Maire has said that he will ensure the deal, which still must be approved by regulators, does not result in any job losses at Alstrom.