Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.17; (P) 148.57; (R1) 149.03; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral first. With 149.73 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. . Below 146.92 will target 61.8% retracement of 139.29 to 152.82 at 144.45. Such decline is seen as a correction and we'd look for strong support from 144.45 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 149.73 support turned resistance will argue that the pull back is completed and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 152.82 high. However, sustained break of 144.45 will put 139.29 key support in focus.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 122.36 is still expected to resume after corrective pull back from 152.82 completes. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 196.85 to 122.36 at 150.43 will carry long term bullish implications. In that case, GBP/JPY could target 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, break of 139.29 will indicate rejection from 150.43 key fibonacci level. And the three wave corrective structure of rebound from 122.36 will argue that larger down trend is resuming for a new low below 122.26.

AUD/USD – 0.7861

Original strategy:

Sold at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7935

Position: - Short at 0.7875
Target:  - 0.7700
Stop:- 0.7935

New strategy :

Hold short entered at 0.7875, Target: 0.7700, Stop: 0.7900

Position: - Short at 0.7875
Target:  - 0.7700
Stop:- 0.7900

Although aussie rose to as high as 0.7897 late last week, the subsequent retreat from there has retained our bearishness and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for weakness to 0.7800, break there would suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of 0.7770-75, break there would add credence to this view, then retest of said support at 0.7733 would follow, below there would confirm recent fall from 0.8125 top has resumed for weakness to 0.7700-10 and later towards 0.7660-65. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 0.7875. Only above previous support at 0.7908 (now resistance) would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.7950 but resistance at 0.7986 should remain intact and bring another decline later. 

On the 4-hour chart, recent upmove from 0.7329 is unfolding as an impulsive rise with wave 3 as well as smaller degree wave (iii) extending, only minor wave v of (iii) has ended at 0.8125, hence bullishness remains for this move to extend headway to 0.8200, then towards 0.8300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 0.8400 and the final wave 5 should falter below 0.8500, bring correction later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.86; (P) 132.12; (R1) 132.59; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY stays neutral as it's still holding on to 131.69 support. Still, it's getting more likely that 134.39 is a medium term top and a downside breakout could be seen soon. Focus is on 131.69 support. Decisive break there will be an early sign of medium term reversal and will target 127.55 key support level. On the upside, firm break of 134.39 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, more corrective trading would be seen.

In the bigger picture, medium term rise from 109.03 (2016 low) is seen as at the same degree as the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) to 109.03 (2016 low). 61.8% retracement of 149.76 to 109.03 at 134.20 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to key long term resistance zone at 141.04/149.76. However, break of 127.55 support will argue that the medium term trend has reversal and will turn outlook bearish for deeper fall.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4971; (P) 1.5002; (R1) 1.5053; More....

Deeper fall is expected in EUR/AUD as long as 1.5101 minor resistance holds. As noted before, consolidation pattern from 1.5226 is still unfolding with fall from 1.5241 as the third leg. Break of 1.4945 will affirm this case and send EUR/AUD through 1.4791 to 1.4421 support cluster support (50% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4425). We'd expect strong support from there to bring rebound. On the upside, though, above 1.5101 will turn focus back to 1.5241 instead.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term top has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Sustained trading above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
    •    Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Down

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Morning star
    •    Time of formation: 25 Aug 2017
    •    Trend bias: Near term up

GBP/USD – 1.3266

Despite retreating from 1.3265 to 1.3121, cable found renewed buying interest there and has staged another strong rebound later, dampening our bearishness and suggesting the rebound from 1.3027 low is still in progress, hence upside risk remains for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3343), however, a daily close above there is needed to signal the fall from 1.3658 has ended, bring further gain to resistance at 1.3455 and possibly towards resistance at 1.3596 but price should falter well below said recent high at 1.3658, bring another leg of corrective decline later. 

On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.3195-00 cannot be ruled out, said support at 1.3121 should remain intact, bring another rebound later. A daily close below this level would suggest the rebound from 1.3027 has ended and revive bearishness for further fall to 1.3080, then retest of 1.3027. A break below this support would retain bearishness and extend the fall from 1.3658 top for retracement of recent upmove to 1.2940-50, then 1.2900 but reckon downside would be limited to 1.2850-55 and support at 1.2774 should remain intact.

Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.  




On the weekly chart, cable found good support at 1.3121 last week and staged a strong rebound, a white candlestick was formed, hence consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, above resistance at 1.3338 would extend the rebound from 1.3027 to resistance at 1.3403 but still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3505-10 and bring another leg of corrective decline later. Only break of 1.3571 resistance would signal the pullback from 1.3658 has ended instead, risk retest of this last month’s high, break there would extend recent erratic rise from 1.1986 low to 1.3750-60 and 1.3800 but overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 1.3860 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5018-1.1986).

On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.3170-75 and said support at 1.3121 should remain intact, bring another rebound. A weekly close below 1.3121 support would signal the rebound from 1.3027 low has ended, bring further fall to 1.3070-80, then retest of 1.3027, break of this support would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.3658, bring further fall to 1.3000, then towards support at 1.2909, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below previous chart support at 1.2774 and price should stay well above another previous chart support at 1.2589, bring rebound later.

Cable firmed on Tuesday, sidelining immediate downside risk following Monday’s close in red and formation of bearish Outside Day which is negative signal.

Near-term action is holding in narrow range within thick hourly cloud, base of which contained Monday’s weakness, marking significant support at 1.3225, which guards 10SMA pivot at 1.3205.

Mixed daily studies show no clear direction while the price is holding between 10 and 20 SMA’s (1.3205 / 1.3311 respectively).

Dip on profit-taking of recent strong rally (1.3026 / 1.3337) was so far shallow, with near-term focus turning towards release of UK inflation data today.

Annualized CPI is expected to rise in September, according to the forecast at 3.0% vs 2.9% in August.

Release above 3.0% would be supportive for Sterling and could spark fresh rally towards Friday’s recovery high at 1.3337.

Conversely, disappointing numbers in September could lead to fresh weakness below 1.3205 (10SMA) and 1.3182 (daily Tenkan-sen) and signal an end of corrective phase from 1.3026.

Res: 1.3287, 1.3311, 1.3337, 1.3415
Sup: 1.3225, 1.3205, 1.3182, 1.3145

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8864; (P) 0.8893; (R1) 0.8931; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the downside for 0.8745 support. Break will resume whole fall from 0.9305 to 61.8% projection of 0.9305 to 0.8745 from 0.9032 at 0.8686, and then 100% projection at 0.8472. On the upside, break of 0.9032 is needed to confirm resumption of the rebound. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in near term.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways to interpret price actions from 0.9304 high. But after all, firm break of 0.9304/5 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, range trading will continue with risk of another fall. And in that case, EUR/GBP could have a retest on 0.8303. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside.

The Euro remains in red on Tuesday and accelerated further down against strengthening greenback which received fresh support on comments that President Trump favors more hawkish next head of the Federal Reserve.

The pair generated bearish signal on Monday's close below 1.1800 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.1669/1.1879 upleg) with fresh bearish acceleration on Tuesday, taking out daily Tenkan-sen support at 1.1774 and pressuring next pivot at 1.1749 (Fibo 61.8%).

Bearish daily studies support for further downside as recent weakness is on track to complete Head & Shoulders pattern on daily chart, which could spark further downside on break below the neckline at 1.1669.

Bears need clear break below 1.1749 Fibo support to unmask daily cloud base at 1.1702 and threaten 1.1669 (former low of 06 Oct / H&S neckline).

Broken Tenkan-sen / 10SMA offer immediate resistance at 1.1774/79, followed by falling 20SMA (1.1802).

EU CPI data are in focus today (Sep CPI m/m is forecasted at 0.4% vs 0.3% prev, while annualized inflation is expected to stay unchanged at 1.5% in September).

Divergence from forecasted levels would have stronger impact on pair's near-term action.

Res: 1.1774, 1.1802, 1.1851, 1.1879
Sup: 1.1749, 1.1702, 1.1669, 1.1620

GBPUSD has turned neutral in the near term after the recent bounce from the key 1.3000 area. It remains to be seen whether the market is making a lower top at 1.3337 and will continue the bearish phase from the 1.3656 peak.

Risk is still tilted to the downside and further weakness is expected since momentum signals are weak. MACD is bearish while RSI is flat.

Immediate support is at 1.3216, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upleg from 1.2773 to 1.3656. Below this level support is expected at 1.3112, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci mark. A deeper decline would target the key 1.3000 area and from here the August 24 low at 1.2773 will come into view.

Immediate resistance is at 1.3319 (38.2% Fibonacci) and above this at 1.3446 (23.6% Fibonacci). From here GBPUSD would re-test the 1.3656 peak and then resume the uptrend that started from 1.2773.

In the bigger picture, the short-term bearish phase appears to still be in progress and the corrective move off 1.3000 has reversed back down. Only a rise back above 1.3300 would indicate that the short-term bearish phase from 1.3656 has ended.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1500; (P) 1.1526; (R1) 1.1541; More....

Breach of 1.1497 minor support argues that recovery from1.1387 has completed at 1.1565 already. intraday bias is turned back to the downside. EUR/CHF is staying the third leg of correction from 1.1622 and should extend through 1.1387 support. Nonetheless, strong support in expect at 1.1257 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0652 to 1.1622 at 1.1251) to contain downside and bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, long term rise from SNB spike low back in 2015 is still in progress. EUR/CHF should now be heading back to prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000. For now, this will be the favored case as long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds.