Sample Category Title
Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Stand aside
EUR/GBP - 0.8792
Original strategy :
Sell at 0.8940, Target: 0.8800, Stop: 0.8980
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
As the single currency has slipped again after last week’s late bounce to 0.8886, suggesting a retest of 0.8774 support would be seen, break there would extend recent selloff from 0.9307 top towards 0.8737-43 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8384-0.9307 and previous support), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 0.8719 support and reckon another previous chart support at 0.8652 would hold.
In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell on subsequent rebound. Above 0.8850 would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to 0.8886, then resistance at 0.8899, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 0.8940-50 and bring another decline later. Above previous support at 0.8982 would abort and signal a temporary low has been formed, bring retracement of recent decline to 0.9000 but price should falter below resistance at 0.9048 and bring another selloff later.
Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.
Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Hold long entered at 1.2285
USD/CAD - 1.2317
Trend: Down
Original strategy :
Bought at 1.2285, Target: 1.2450, Stop: 1.2225
Position: - Long at 1.2285
Target: - 1.2450
Stop: - 1.2225
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 1.2285, Target: 1.2450, Stop: 1.2250
Position: - Long at 1.2285
Target: - 1.2450
Stop:- 1.2250
As the greenback found support at 1.2254 on Friday and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness for another bounce to 1.2350-55, above there would bring test of indicated resistance at 1.2391, break of this last week’s high would add credence to our view that a temporary low has been made at 1.2061 earlier this month, bring retracement of recent decline to resistance at 1.2425-30, then 1.2450, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 1.2500 would hold from here, bring retreat later.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.2285. Only below indicated support at 1.2197 would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring weakness to 1.2160-65, then towards support at 1.2121, break there would confirm the rebound from 1.2061 has ended and bring retest of this level later, We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction ended at 1.2778, wave v has reached our indicated downside target at 1.2100 and may extend to 1.2000.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Stand aside
USD/CHF - 0.9737
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Although the greenback has edged higher after rebound from Friday’s low of 0.9668 and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, break of last week’s high at 0.9748 is needed to signal recent rise from 0.9421 low has resumed and extend gain to 0.9761-66 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0100-0.9421 and previous resistance), then test of another previous resistance at 0.9773.
On the downside, below said support at 0.9668 would extend weakness to previous minor resistance at 0.9649 but break there is needed to signal top has been formed, bring further fall to 0.9620, however, price should stay well above indicated support at 0.9589, bring rebound later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now.
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Stand aside
GBP/USD - 1.3515
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
Despite falling to 1.3450 late Friday, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.3452 and the subsequent rebound suggest further consolidation would take place and recovery to 1.3585-90 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3615-20 and price should falter below last week’s high at 1.3658, bring another retreat later.
On the downside, below 1.3475 would bring another fall towards 1.3450 support but a firm break below there is needed to retain bearishness and signal top has been formed at 1.3658, bring retracement of recent rise towards 1.3400-05 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3153-1.3658). As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now.
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Target met and stand aside
EUR/USD - 1.1873
Original strategy :
Sold at 1.1970, met target at 1.1870
Position : - Short at 1.1970
Target : - 1.1870
Stop : -
New strategy :
Stand aside
Position : -
Target : -
Stop : -
The single currency has fallen again after opening lower today, adding credence to our bearish view (our short position entered at 1.1970 met our target at 1.1870 with 100 points profit), although this anticipated decline suggests test of previous support at 1.1861 cannot be ruled out, a sustained breach below this support is needed to extend the fall from 1.2035 to previous support at 1.1838, then towards 1.1800 which is likely to hold on first testing.
As we have taken profit on our short position entered at 1.1970, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1900) would bring recovery to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1922) but reckon upside would be limited to 1.1940-50 and 1.1980-85 should hold.
Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 111.70
USD/JPY - 112.27
Original strategy :
Bought at 111.70, Target: 112.70, Stop: 111.70
Position : - Long at 111.70
Target : - 112.70
Stop : - 111.70
New strategy :
Hold long entered at 111.70, Target: 112.70, Stop: 111.90
Position : - Long at 111.70
Target : - 112.70
Stop : - 111.90
Although the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 112.52 and further consolidation below last week’s high at 112.72 would be seen, reckon downside would be limited to 111.80-85 and bring another rise, above 112.52 would bring retest of said resistance at 112.72, break there would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 112.90-00, then towards 113.25-30 (1.236 times projection of 107.32-111.04 measuring from 109.55), having said that, previous chart resistance at 113.58 would hold from here, bring correction later.
In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 111.70. Only below indicated support at 111.65 would abort and risk weakness to 111.40-45 but break there is needed to signal a temporary top has been formed at 112.72, bring retracement of recent rise towards support at 111.11 first.
DAX Ticks Higher But Markets Cautious After German Vote
The DAX index has posted small gains in the Monday session. Currently, the DAX is trading at 12,619.00, up 0.22% on the day. On the release front, Angela Merkel won the German election and will serve a fourth term as president. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate slowed to 115.2, short of the estimate of 116.0 points. Later in the day, ECB President Mario Draghi testifies before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee. On Tuesday, Germany releases Import Prices.
Angela Merkel's CDU won 33% of the vote in the German election, which means that Merkel will have to enter arduous negotiations with other parties in order to form a coalition government. The center-left SFD, which won 20% of the vote, has already said it will not join the CDU, so Merkel has her work cut out for her. The far-right AFD ran on a far-right, anti-immigrant platform, and the party's surge in support has sent shock waves in Germany and across Europe. The AFD cannot be considered as a coalition partner, which leaves the Greens and the pro-business FDP party as the most likely configuration. However, the FDP has insisted on the powerful finance portfolio and will likely try to reduce German transfer payments to the European Union. If negotiations become deadlocked, European stock markets could head lower. Meanwhile, there was some disappointing economic news out of Germany, as the Ifo Business Climate for September fell short of expectations. The indicator dropped to a 3-month low, but the reading of 115.2 still indicates strong economic growth in the eurozone's largest economy.
Angela Merkel was all smiles on Sunday night, as the election results were released and it became clear that she had been re-elected as president. However, support for her CDU party dropped from 41% in the last election to 33% on Sunday, creating a complicated post-election picture. It is not only Merkel's popularity that has suffered; her image as Europe's most powerful politician has been tarnished, and her most likely coalition partners, the Greens and the FDP will be sure to extract major concessions as the price for their parliamentary seats. Merkel will have to focus her energies on forming a workable coalition and will have to put other issues on the back burner, at a time when the European Union is locked in difficult negotiations with Britain over the terms of its departure from the EU.
GBPUSD: Bear Pressure Builds Up Towards The 1.3381 Zone
GBPUSD - The pair remains weak and vulnerable to the downside as it took back its early intra day gains during Monday trading session. This leaves risk lower on more bear pressure. Support lies at the 1.3450 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3400 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3350 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.3300 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.3550 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.3600 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3650 level followed by the 1.3700 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face further downside threats.
USDJPY Testing 112 Handle
The USDJPY pair has pulled back to test intraday buying demand around the 112 level, after earlier reaching 112.53 in the Asian session and failing to push price-action above the former weekly price-high, located at 112.71.
On Friday, the USDJPY pair managed to close the weekly price-bar above its 200-week moving average, which marked the first bullish weekly close above the 200-week MA, since July 9th this year.
Going forward, the pair retains a bullish bias whilst trading above its monthly pivot point, at 111.65 and 200-week moving average, at 111.64. Traders should also watch the pairs 200-day moving average, currently located at 111.45.
Key intraday technical support is found at the pairs 100-hour moving average, at 111.98 and weekly pivot point, at 111.90.
To the upside, intraday USDJPY resistance is located at 112.19, 112.57 and 112.71. Above 112.71, further weekly resistance is found at 113.20 and 113.88.
EURUSD Testing Critical Support
The EURUSD pair is continuing to slip lower in early Monday trading, as German political woes weigh on the single currency. The euro was earlier rejected from the 1.1952 level, and is now testing critical support weekly, at 1.1885.
Going forward, the former weekly price low at 1.1861 may now come into focus. A move below the 1.1861 level would negate the series of bullish higher lows on the price-charts, and further dampen EURUSD trading sentiment.
Traders should now watch for a higher-time frame price close below the 1.1885 level, and also look for the key 1.1900 level to hold on any intraday upward price retracements.
Key technical support below 1.1885 is located at 1.1870, 1.1861 and 1.1838. Below 1.1838, the 1.1823 level acts as critical support protecting further declines to 1.1770 and 1.1716.
To the upside, intraday EURUSD resistance is found at 1.1900 and the former swing-high at 1.1920. Above 1.1920, further resistance is found from the daily and weekly pivot point, at 1.1928 and 1.1948.