Sample Category Title

USD/JPY - 111.73

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 111.63

Kijun-Sen level                  : 111.51

Ichimoku cloud top             : 110.99

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 110.45

New strategy  :

Buy at 111.00, Target: 112.00, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has continued trading with a firm undertone after recent anticipated rally, suggesting the reversal from 107.32 low is still in progress and further gain to 112.00, then 112.20 resistance would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 112.40-45, risk from there has increased for a retreat later.

In view of this, would not chase this move here and would be prudent to buy dollar on subsequent pullback as 111.00-05 should limit downside. Below 110.62 support would abort and signal a temporary top is formed instead, risk correction to 110.30-35, then towards 110.00 which is likely to hold from here.

Market movers today

Today, German ZEW expectations. In August , the figure dropped to 10.0, due to weaker exports and the growing scandal in Germany's automobile sect or. Together with the appreciating euro's pressure on exports, this could cause economic sentiment to deteriorate. However, both business expectations (Ifo) and German PMIs increased in August , signalling still increasing opimism on the part of business. Overall, we expect the ZEW expectations to show a small decline to 9.5.

The Central Bank of Hungary will hold its monetary policy meeting today, where it might expand liquidity further by lowering the cap of the three-month deposit and/or cutting the O/N interest rate, despite inflation starting to pick up recently.

Selected market news

It has been a relatively quiet session overnight both in terms of news and price act ions as investors await the FOMC meeting tomorrow. In the US, equity indices ended the day higher with S&P500 and Dow Jones gaining 0.15% and 0.28%, respectively. In Asia this morning, trading is more mixed with most regional indices trading lower while Japanese equity indices are up 1.3-1.5%.

While a large part of today's outperformance in Japanese equities can be explained by Japan catching up yesterday after returning from holiday, rising expectations of an early election might also boost the rally. Japanese equity markets have previously gained ahead of the dissolutions of the parliament on calls for elections. According to several media, it seems increasingly likely that Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will dissolve the Lower House later this month and call for a general election. If an early election is called this month, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and consumption taxes are likely to come to the fore of political discussions. In particular, the questions about who will lead the BoJ when Haruhiko Kuroda's current five year terms ends in April is a theme that could induce uncertainty about the BoJ's monetary policy , as investors will probably link the fate of the Abe administration with the current accommodative policy regime (Abenomics).

In a speech last night in Washington, Bank of England (BoE) governor Mark Carney echoed the surprisingly hawkish statement from the BoE last week and signalled that the MPC might soon hike the Bank Rate as global factors in combination wit h a decline in the economy's potential due to Brexit have increased the chance of overheating and warrant s higher interest rates. We expect the BoE to hike in November.

There were no surprises in the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) meeting on 5 September published this morning. The RBA expects the economy to pick up gradually but there was no signal that the RBA is about to change its policy rate. We expect the RBA to deliver one 25bp hike within the next 12 months, which is in line with market pricing.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.75% against the USD and closed at 0.7964.

LME Copper prices rose 0.5% or $30.0/MT to $6487.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.1% or $1.5/MT to $2066.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7968, with the AUD trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

Earlier today, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) September meeting showed that officials grew more upbeat on Australia’s economic outlook, citing an improving labour market. Although policymakers expressed concerns about rising household debt and a strong local currency.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7927, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7886. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8022, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8076.

Looking ahead, market participants will closely monitor Australia’s Westpac leading index for August, scheduled to release overnight.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR slightly rose against the USD and closed at 1.1957.

On the economic front, the Euro-zone's final consumer price index (CPI) rose to a four-month high of 1.5% on an annual basis in August, confirming the preliminary print. In the previous month, the CPI had risen 1.3%.

Separately, according to the Bundesbank monthly report, Germany's consumer price inflation is likely to retreat in the autumn, due to the “base effects” of sharp increases a year earlier.

Macroeconomic data released in the US indicated that the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell to a level of 64.0 in September, amid concerns that Hurricane Harvey as well as Irma will lead to higher material costs and shortage of labour. Investors had envisaged the index to remain steady at a revised reading of 67.0.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1965, with the EUR trading 0.07% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1928, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1892. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1988, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2012.

Going ahead, market participants will focus on the release of ZEW expectations survey for September across the Euro-zone along with the region's construction output data for July, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US housing starts and building permits data, both for August, set to release later in the day, will attract significant amount of market attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.6% against the USD and closed at 1.3515, after the Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, indicated that any future interest rate hikes would be limited and gradual.

Further, Carney, in a speech at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that economic implications of Brexit has yet to be felt and will likely slowdown the British economic growth until the middle of next year and push inflation up, as it has already prompted households to cut back on spending and businesses to invest less than usual.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3512, with the GBP trading slightly lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3445, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3378. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3599, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3686.

In absence of any macroeconomic releases in the UK today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.3% against the JPY and closed at 111.47.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.52, with the USD trading slightly higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.21, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 110.91. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.74, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 111.97.

Moving ahead, traders will look forward to Japan’s adjusted merchandise trade balance data for August, due to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.2% against the CHF and closed at 0.9616.

In economic news, Switzerland’s total sight deposits remained steady at CHF579.0 billion in the week ended 15 September.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9612, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9582, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9551. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9642, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9671.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.82% against the CAD and closed at 1.2279.

The Canadian Dollar declined against the USD, after one of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) policymaker suggest “a cautious approach to additional rate hikes”.

The BoC Deputy Governor, Timothy Lane, stated that the central bank, which has raised rates twice in three months, will closely monitor the currency's impact on the economy and how the economy responds to higher interest rates to decide on future path of monetary policy.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2304, with the USD trading 0.2% higher against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2205, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2105. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2437.

Amid no major macroeconomic releases in Canada today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic events for further direction.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8801; (P) 0.8832; (R1) 0.8885; More

A temporary low is formed at 0.8773 in EUR/GBP and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Near term outlook stays bearish as long as 0.8981 cluster resistance holds (38.2% retracement of 0.9305 to 0.8773 at 0.8976). Fall from 0.9305 is seen as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 0.9304. Below 0.8773 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.8312 to 0.9305 at 0.8691 and below. We'll look for bottoming signal again at it approaches 0.8303 support.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. It's still in progress with fall from 0.9305 as the third leg. Break of 0.8303 could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Whole up trend from 0.6935 is expected to resume after consolidation from 0.9304 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4913; (P) 1.4972; (R1) 1.5074; More....

EUR/AUD's rebound and break of 1.4944 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 1.5173 is completed. and rise from 1.4421 could be resuming after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.5173/5226 resistance zone first. Break will resume medium term rally from 1.3624. On the downside, below 1.4811 will turn bias to the downside and extend the fall from 1.5173 to retest 1.4421 support.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that corrective decline from 1.6587 medium term has completed at 1.3624. Rise from 1.3624 is expected to extend to retest 1.6587. The corrective structure of the price actions from 1.5226 is affirming this view. Above 1.5226 will target a test on 1.6587 key resistance. However, break of 1.4421 support will dampen our view and would drag EUR/AUD lower to retest key support zone around 1.3624.