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Gold More Downside In View

Gold drops further on the short term and should approach and reach the sliding line (SL) of the ascending pitchfork, where he may find support again. Price ignored the confluence area formed between the 38.2% retracement level with the warning line (WL1) and now could be attracted by the confluence area formed between the 61.8% retracement level with the sliding line (SL).

GBPUSD Lower on Weaker UK PMI

The British pound has moved below key technical support against the U.S dollar, after the United Kingdom's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index came in weaker than expected, at 55.9, which was lower than the previous month's figure of 56.7.

Trading sentiment surrounding the GBPUSD pair is expected to remain weak while price-action trades below the key 1.3343 level, which is the pairs key 100-week moving average.

The GBPUSD pair is also declining due to a stronger U.S dollar index today, with greenback continuing to gain bullish momentum above the 93.00 level heading into the U.S session.

Today's decline has so far found technical support from the 1.3290 level, although further losses cannot be ruled out towards 1.3240.

Key intraday GBPUSD resistance is currently located at the pairs monthly pivot, at 1.3321, with further intraday resistance found at 1.3343, 1.3361 and 1.3400.

Below the 1.3290 level, key GBPUSD intraday technical support is found at 1.3265, 1.3240, 1.3215 and 1.3190.

EURUSD Continues to Weaken

The euro continues to move lower against the U.S dollar, hitting 1.1730 during the European trading session, as political uncertainty over the Catalan election weighs on the single currency.

Sentiment surrounding the EURUSD pair is likely to remain weak today, with further technical selling likely whilst the pair remains below key intraday support, located at 1.1770.

Crucially, the EURUSD pair remains above the former weekly price low and the key 1.1710 level, which donates the 2015 yearly price high and the pairs 200-week moving average.

Going forward, today's daily price close should give further indication if the euro will decline further towards 1.1710, or attempt a recovery above the 1.1770 mark.

Key intraday EURUSD technical support is found at 1.1730, 1.1717 and 1.1710. Below 1.1710, further losses towards 1.1660 and 1.1610 remain likely.

To the upside, intraday technical resistance is found at 1.1770, 1.1800 and the pairs weekly pivot, at 1.1823.

Sterling Stumbles into Q4, Gold Dims

Sterling got off to a rough start during Monday's trading session after weaker than expected data from Britain's manufacturing sector, suggested that the economy could be losing momentum.

Growth in UK's manufacturing sector eased in September, as the Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 55.9 from August's 56.7. This report has compounded the disappointment felt from last week's soft UK GDP reading for Q2, which was the weakest since 2013. As we enter the final trading quarter of 2017, Sterling could find itself in trouble and exposed to downside risks, as the combination of soft economic data and ongoing Brexit uncertainty, weighs heavily on the currency.

From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD is coming under intense selling pressure on the daily charts. A decisive breakdown and daily close below 1.3300 may open a clean path towards 1.3150.

Euro pressured by Catalonia worries

The mighty Euro was not so mighty against the Dollar on Monday, amid uncertainty about the political situation in Spain.

Catalonia held an independence referendum on Sunday, which showed 90% of those who voted were in favour of independence, with a turnout rate of 42.3%. With the developments in Spain rekindling concerns of political uncertainty in Europe, the Euro is likely to find itself under further selling pressure. A vulnerable US Dollar has also played a leading role in the EURUSD's decline, with prices trading around 1.1740 as of writing. With the Greenback slowly reclaiming its throne on the back of rising US rate hike expectations, the current weekly uptrend of the EURUSD is under threat.

From a technical standpoint, the EURUSD bulls look tired and may lose control on the weekly charts if prices trade below 1.1680. A breakdown below this level, may encourage a further decline towards 1.1600 and 1.1500, respectively.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold lost some of its glimmer during Monday's trading session, as investors entered the final trading quarter of 2017 with a risk-on attitude.

The downside was complemented by a strengthening US Dollar and expectations of higher US interest rates, which encouraged bears to install fresh rounds of selling. With the yellow metal achieving a monthly close below $1300, Q4 could be the quarter in which bears make a serious move to drag prices to back towards $1240, and potentially even lower.

From a technical standpoint, Gold is bearish on the weekly timeframe. The breakdown below $1280 should encourage a decline towards $1267 this week.

GBPUSD Sells Off On Bear Pressure

GBPUSD: The pair weakened strongly on Monday opening the door for more price extension. Support lies at the 1.3250 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.3200 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3150 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.3100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.3350 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.3400 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3450 level followed by the 1.3500 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face further downside pressure

CAC Ticks Higher as French Manufacturing PMI Improves

The CAC index has started the trading week quietly. In the Monday session, the index is at 5,338.75, up 0.12% on the day. On the release front, manufacturing numbers in France and the eurozone improved in September. French Final Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1, its highest level since April 2011. In the Eurozone, Final Manufacturing PMI improved to 58.1, just shy of the estimate of 58.2 points.

All eyes were on Spain over the weekend, as the region of Catalonia held a referendum on Sunday. The vote was marked by violence as police tried to shut down polling centers and confiscated ballots. The national government banned the referendum, and police used tear gas and rubber bullets against defiant voters, causing over 800 casualties. Catalonian officials claimed that 90 percent of voters had voted for independence. The stage has now been set for a full-blown constitutional crisis with Madrid. The Catalan regional government is holding an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss what steps it will take regarding independence, and the markets will be monitoring the situation, which remains fluid. Although, the drama in Spain is not expected to have a serious impact on the eurozone nervous investors reacted to the news on Monday by selling euros in favor of the dollar and Swiss franc.

There was good news from the manufacturing front on Monday, as French Final Manufacturing PMI accelerated for a fourth straight month, and continues to point to expansion. The French economy has rebounded in 2017, as growth is up and unemployment has fallen. Last week, the Bank of France revised upwards its growth forecast to 1.7 percent, up from 1.6 percent in July and 1.4 percent in June. Villeroy de Galhaum, head of the Bank of France, said that although the economy was improving, a growth rate of 1.7% was still short of the eurozone growth rate of 2.0 percent. The Bank's forecast is in line with that of the OECD, which has revised its growth forecast for France from 1.3 percent to 1.7 percent.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1779; (P) 1.1806 (R1) 1.1839; More...

EUR/USD is still staying above 1.1716 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Outlook is unchanged that decline from 1.2091 is correcting whole rise from 1.0569. Deeper fall is expected as long as 1.22029 resistance holds. Below 1.1716 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0569 to 1.2091 at 1.1510, where we're expecting support to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, rise from medium term bottom at 1.0339 is not finished yet. It's expected to continue after pull back from 1.2091 completes. And, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. However, it should be noted that there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet. That is, such rebound from 1.0399 could be a correction. And the long term fall from 1.6039 (2008 high) could resume. Hence, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9656; (P) 0.9689; (R1) 0.9707; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, with focus on 0.9772 resistance. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 key resistance will suggest that whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 0.9860/1.0099 resistance zone. Nonetheless, with 0.9772 resistance intact, outlook remains bearish. Below 0.9587 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.9420 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend from 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.20; (P) 112.47; (R1) 112.72; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation below 113.25 temporary top. As long as 111.46 minor support holds, further rise is in favor. Sustained break of medium term channel resistance will argue that correction from 118.65 is already completed with three waves down to 107.31. Break of 114.49 will confirm this bullish case and target a test on 118.65 next. On the downside, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 111.46 will suggest rejection from the channel resistance and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It's unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don't expect a break there on first attempt.

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3347; (P) 1.3395; (R1) 1.3441; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment as fall from. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2773 to 1.3651 at 1.3108. On the upside, break of 1.3454 minor resistance is needed to signal completion of the decline. Otherwise, near term outlook remains mildly bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the long term trend in GBP/USD has reversed. That is, a key bottom was formed back in 1.1946 on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Current rise from 1.1946 will target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 (2007 high) to 1.1946 (2016 low) at 1.5466 next. In any case, medium term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 1.2773 support holds.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart