Sample Category Title

USD/CHF - 0.9548

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Down

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9546

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9574

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9599

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9573

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9500, Target: 0.9600, Stop: 0.9465

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9500, Target: 0.9600, Stop: 0.9465

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has remained under near term pressure and consolidation with initial downside bias remains, hence weakness to 0.9520-25 cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that low has been formed at 0.9428 last week is correct, downside would be limited to 0.9500 and bring another rebound later. Above 0.9615-20 would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of 0.9653-55 resistance, break there would bring another rise to 0.9680 but break there is needed to add credence to this view and extend gain to resistance at 0.9698-99. 

In view of this, we are inclined to buy dollar on further subsequent decline. Below 0.9490-00 would risk weakness to 0.9470 but still reckon downside would be limited to 0.9450 and said support at 0.9428 should remain intact, bring another rebound later.

Currency pair GBP/USD

The GBP/USD did break above the resistance trend line (dotted orange) which kick started an impulsive wave C (purple). This C wave has reached the 50% Fibonacci level of wave 2 vs 1 but could extend further to the 61.8% Fib. This Fib plus the resistance levels of a potential head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart (orange lines) could act as potential resistance.

The GBP/USD could be building a wave 4 (grey) correction within the wave C (purple). A potential bull flag pattern (orange lines) could confirm this wave 4 structure. The target zone is around 1.3075- 1.31. The bearish retracement should typically not retrace deeper than 1.30-1.2975 otherwise price might not be in smaller wave 4 (grey).

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is moving slowly and choppily and remains in a corrective chart pattern between support and resistance trend lines (blue/red). A break below the support trend line (blue) could confirm a potential ABC correction (red). The ABC correction (red) is invalidated if price breaks above the 138.2% Fib at 1.2165. A break above the resistance trend line (red) could indicate that there is bullish pressure to test the Fib levels of wave B vs A.

The EUR/USD could be building a potential wave 1 and 2 (purple) within wave C (red) and test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 vs 1 (purple). A break above the 100% Fib level at 1.1980 invalidates it and could indicate that price will challenge higher Fib levels of wave B vs A. A bearish break below support (blue) could start the wave 3 (purple).

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY is retesting the support zone (green) again which is a bounce or break spot. A bearish break below the zone indicates a downtrend whereas a bounce could indicate a continuation of wave C (orange).

The USD/JPY is testing the 88.6% Fibonacci support level. A bullish bounce and then bullish break above resistance (orange) could indicate the completion of wave B (orange).

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

We typically search for lower-timeframe confirmation between the M15 and H1 timeframes, since most of our higher-timeframe areas begin with the H4. Stops are usually placed 1-3 pips beyond confirming structures.

EUR/USD

Across the board, the greenback plummeted on Tuesday following dovish comments from Fed Governor Brainard, consequently forcing the single currency above the 1.19 handle amid early US trading. Technically speaking, this move should have been expected. Weekly action shows price shaking hands with a support level pegged at 1.1871, and daily price recently bounced nicely from demand coming in at 1.1739-1.1823.

As of current price, however, the tide may be changing as the USDX is seen trading from a weekly support at 11854, which boasts strong historical history. Therefore, the EUR may struggle to reach its next upside H4 target: resistance at 1.1962.

Suggestions: Although all three timeframes on the EUR suggest further buying may take place up to at least H4 resistance at 1.1962 (H4 consumption wick marked with a black arrow at 1.1979 shows that offers may be weak here), and quite possibly the large psychological boundary 1.20, we’re still wary due to where price is trading on the USDX!

Given the above factors, we would want to see H4 price retest 1.19 as support (see black arrows) and hold firm in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied bullish candle, before looking to buy this market and targeting 1.1962/1.20.

Data points to consider: US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.19 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD:  

A spineless greenback helped GBP bulls find their feet early on in yesterday’s London morning segment. The advance, shaped by a number of strong consecutive H4 bull candles, ran through multiple tech resistances and ended the day kissing the underside of a supply penciled in at 1.3053-1.3037. Despite this, we may see this area faked before sellers step into the fray, since there is a potential AB=CD formation (see black arrows) seen just above at 1.3057.

Looking over to the bigger picture, weekly price remains teasing the underside of a supply base coming in at 1.3120-1.2957. Should the USDX weekly support at 11854 hold ground, this could bolster weekly sellers from the current supply zone and eventually send the unit back down to demand penciled in at 1.2589-1.2759. In conjunction with the weekly timeframe, daily price recently drove high into the walls of a resistance area at 1.3058-1.2979. Given its strong history dating back to mid-May, we feel this zone will likely provide resistance and ultimately push cable down to the support area seen below at 1.2818-1.2752 that converges with a channel support line taken from the low 1.2365.

Suggestions: A short from the H4 AB=CD completion point at 1.3057, with stops planted above its 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.3083, could be an option today. First take-profit target, for us, would be the 1.30 region.

Data points to consider: US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.3057 (stop loss: 1.3086).

AUD/USD:  

Bolstered by a fading US dollar, the commodity currency shifted northbound on Tuesday. The move saw price aggressively break through the 0.80 psychological boundary and come within a few pips of testing a daily Quasimodo resistance level at 0.8030. As of current price, the unit remains above 0.80, despite an earnest attempt from sellers to push lower during the US morning segment.

With 0.80 likely being a sensitive point in this market, let’s see how land lies on the higher timeframes. Since weekly price linked with the support area at 0.7849-0.7752 three weeks ago, the unit has remained reasonably well-bid. The next objective, assuming that price continues to push north, can be seen around resistance drawn from 0.8075. Before weekly action can reach the noted resistance, however, let’s not forget that daily action must first consume the Quasimodo resistance mentioned above at 0.8030.

Suggestions: In light of the above, we would not want to be a seller at 0.80 given the room seen to move higher on the bigger picture. Similarly, we would be uncomfortable buying above 0.80 seeing how close the daily Quasimodo resistance is located. In addition to this, a sell from the daily Quasimodo opens one up to the possibility of being faked up to the weekly resistance at 0.8075. Therefore, the only place of interest right now, in our opinion, is the said weekly resistance level, which happens to stretch as far back as 1997! Whether or not this will turn to be a valid sell zone will depend entirely on how H4 price action responds. Ideally, we’d want a strong bearish candle to form from here in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied candle.

Data points to consider: Australian growth figures at 2.30am. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.8075 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).

USD/JPY

According to weekly structure, demand at 108.13-108.95 is struggling to hold firm at the moment. A violation of this zone could see the pair sink into a nearby support area fixed at 105.19-107.54. Recent action on the daily timeframe reveals that price crossed below a trendline support extended from the low 100.08, thus further confirming weakness within the said weekly demand area. The story on the H4 timeframe, however, shows that yesterday’s dollar selloff dragged price below the 109 handle and eventually into the jaws of a mid-level support drawn from 108.50.

Suggestions: A buy from 108.50, considering the weakness being seen on the higher timeframes right now, would not be a trade we’d label high probability. Similarly, a short below 108.50 would also be an uncomfortable short, given that price remains within a weekly demand area, although weak looking at this time.

With the above points in mind, our team’s position will remain flat going into today’s sessions.

Data points to consider: US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD

During the course of yesterday’s sessions, the pair failed to sustain gains above the 1.24 handle and proceeded to drive lower and retest H4 mid-level support at 1.2350/H4 support at 1.2362. Despite a second bounce being seen from this area, the bulls are not registering much intent to push higher.

Last week, weekly price hammered its way through a long-term weekly trendline support extended from the low 0.9633, which, technically speaking, has likely set the stage for further selling this week down to demand penciled in at 1.2127-1.2309. On the other side of the field, nevertheless, daily price remains trading within the walls of a demand area at 1.2303-1.2423 drawn from as far back as June 2015.

Suggestions: To our way of seeing things right now, the bears look to have the upper hand in this market right now, even though daily action is sited within demand.

Preferably, we would love to be sellers in this market given the pair’s underlying trend. However, selling into daily demand and H4 support is just too risky for our liking. In regard to longs, we would not feel comfortable buying this market above 1.24 due to weekly price showing room to drive lower. To that end, the only place of interest is the 1.23 handle due to its location on the higher timeframes (positioned just three pips below daily demand, and sited within the top edge of weekly demand). For us, we would look to place stops below the H4 low @ 1.2276 formed on the 24thJune 2015, and target 1.2350 as an initial take-profit level.

Data points to consider: US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm. Canadian trade balance at 1.30pm, BOC meeting at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.23 region (stop loss: 1.2274).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CHF

Going into the early hours of yesterday’s London segment, the pair continued to retrace after failing to sustain gains beyond the 0.96 mark. The day ended with the unit marginally breaching the lower edge of a H4 demand zone at 0.9538-0.9557, which, as you can probably see, intersects nicely with daily support at 0.9546.

Despite recent developments, this is still a tricky market to trade at the moment. A long from the current demand is unfortunately clouded by nearby resistance: July’s opening level planted at 0.9580, followed closely by the 0.96 line. A close below H4 demand on the other hand opens up downside to 0.95 according to H4 structure. However, price could potentially halt before we reach this barrier seeing as the top edge of the weekly support area is lodged at 0.9515.

Suggestions: Owing to the above notes, there’s very little to hang our hat on at this time. Therefore, remaining on the sidelines and awaiting further developments is the route we’ve chosen to take.

Data points to consider: US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

DOW 30

August’s opening level at 21913 maintained support for the majority of yesterday’s London segment. It wasn’t until the early hours of US trade did the index turn red and aggressively dive lower. H4 price, as you can see, settled for the day beneath resistance at 21771, potentially opening up the possibility for further selling down to daily support etched out at 21664 (fuses nicely with H4 trendline support taken from the low 21484). Also of particular interest here is the top edge of the weekly demand at 21462-21645 is seen located only a few points below the said daily support.

Our suggestions: Despite the recent moves south, the US equity market is still entrenched within an incredibly strong uptrend. This – coupled with daily support, the top edge of a weekly demand and a H4 trendline support, makes for a nice-looking area to consider buying from (yellow rectangle). For aggressive traders, stops could be placed around the 21633 mark. For conservative traders, however, waiting for H4 price to prove buyer intent exists here in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied bullish candle, may be the path to take.

Data points to consider: US ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 21664 region ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bullish candle to form – preferably a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

In recent trading, the yellow metal advanced higher following a beautiful to-the-pip retest of H4 support at 1325.9. The move from this line lifted the unit above weekly resistance at 1337.3, but has since formed little bullish intention. In fact, we would say, judging by the H4 candles (bearish wicks), that the bears are now in control for the time being. Therefore, we do not, even though daily price also closed above the weekly resistance level, consider this to be a bullish signal as of yet.

Our suggestions: Let price action unfold. What we mean by this is to wait and see if the H4 candles push back below the weekly resistance level. This, to us, would be considered a bearish signal and one worth trading back down to daily support at 1308.4. Also something you may want to consider is a H4 close beyond H4 support at 1325.9 could be used as a respectable trigger to reduce risk to breakeven.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for H4 price to close back below 1337.3 and then consider entering short (stop loss: 1355.9.

GBP/USD - 1.3026

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.3032

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2977

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2951

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2935

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2970, Target: 1.3070, Stop: 1.2935

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2970, Target: 1.3070, Stop: 1.2935

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s rally above previous resistance at 1.3032 confirms recent rise from 1.2774 has resumed and mild upside bias remains for this move to extend further gain to 1.3055-60 (100% projection of 1.2774-1.2979 measuring from 1.2852), then towards 1.3080 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3269-1.2774) but near term overbought condition would prevent sharp move beyond 1.3100, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy cable on pullback as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2977) should limit downside and bring another rise. Below the upper Kumo (now at 1.2951) would defer and risk weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 1.2935) but only break of support at 1.2905-09 would signal top is formed. 

EUR/USD - 1.1926

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1917

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1905

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1915

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1900

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1980, Target: 1.1880, Stop: 1.2015

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1980, Target: 1.1880, Stop: 1.2015

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Yesterday’s cable-led rebound suggests consolidation with initial upside bias would be seen and gain to 1.1950-55 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 1.1980 and bring another decline later. Below 1.1885-90 would bring weakness to 1.1850, break there would signal the rebound from 1.1823 has ended, then test of this level would follow, break there would add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.2070 earlier and extend the fall from there to 1.1815-18 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1662-1.2070), then 1.1790-00 but downside should be limited to previous support at 1.1773. 

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro again on recovery as 1.1980 resistance should limit upside. Only a firm break above said resistance at 1.1980 would abort and signal the fall from 1.2070 has ended at 1.1823, bring further gain to 1.2000 and possibly towards 1.2025-30.

USD/JPY - 108.60

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level              : 108.66

Kijun-Sen level                  : 109.03

Ichimoku cloud top             : 109.85

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 109.52

Original strategy  :

Sell at 109.40, Target: 108.40, Stop: 109.75

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 109.40, Target: 108.40, Stop: 109.75

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As dollar has remained under pressure after yesterday’s selloff, adding credence to our view that the fall from 110.67 is still in progress and may extend weakness towards previous support at 108.27, however, break there is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 114.50 to another previous chart support at 108.13, having said that, the greenback needs to penetrate this chart support to confirm early selloff from 118.66 has resumed for subsequent weakness to 107.70-75 which is likely to hold from here. 

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as 109.40-50 should limit upside and bring another decline later. Above 109.80-83 would abort and signal an intra-day low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 110.00-05 but price should falter well below resistance at 110.49.

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei lost 0.15 %, Shanghai Composite down 0.04 %, Hang Seng down 0.86 %, ASX 200 fell 0.45 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1343.91 (-0.05 %), Silver at $17.98 (+0.21 %), WTI Oil at $48.59 (-0.14 %), Brent Oil at $53.20 (-0.36%)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.07, UK 10-year yield at 1.01, German 10-year yield at 0.32

News & Data:

• AUD GDF q/q 0.8 % vs 0.8 % expected
• JPY Average Cash Earnings -0.3 % vs 0.5 % expected
• CHF CPI m/m 0.0 % vs -0.3 % previous
• GBP Services PMI 53.2 vs 53.5 expected
• USD Factory Orders m/m -3.3 % vs 0.3 % expected
• NZD GDT Price Index 0.3 % vs 0.3 % expected
• Fed policymakers signal caution on inflation, rate hikes- RTRS

Markets Update:

Asian equity markets declined on Wednesday, following the fall on wall street. Overnight the U.S. stocks slipped while Treasuries rallied the most in 10 months as tensions with North Korea mounted and another Atlantic hurricane threatened to make landfall.

USDJPY was seen trading down around 108.50 in pre-Tokyo session as the US Dollar continued to lose against the Yen. The dollar lost 0.9 percent overnight, its biggest one-day drop in three months. But as Tokyo became more active it recovered to 108.80 and is mid-range at the moment trading around 180,70. The Average Cash earnings had slid down to -0.3 % from 0.4 %.

EURUSD is currently seen trading at 1.1914 as the Euro increased 0.2 percent against the US Dollar. The dollar suffered after Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday inflation was “well short” of targetThe dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was little changed at 92.32

AUDUSD rallied higher early on Wednesday reaching highs of around 0.8020 ahead of the GDP release, however the Aussie lost most of it gains and fell to trade below 0.8 after the release of GDP data and is currently seen trading around 0.7990. NZDUSD followed a similar patter, the kiwi was seen trading higher reaching highs of 0.7260 early in its morning and then turning lower currently seen trading below 0.7230 against the US Dollar.

Upcoming Events:

• 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Trade Balance
• 12:30 GMT – (CAD) Labor Productivity q/q
• 12:30 GMT – (USD) Trade Balance
• 14:00 GMT – (CAD) BOC Rate Statement
• 14:00 GMT – (CAD) Overnight Rate
• 14:00 GMT – (USD) ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Market movers today

In the US, the ISM non-manufacturing index in August is due out today. We believe the fall in July was too big and that it will have recovered some of the lost ground in August . Hence, weest imate the ISM non-manufacturing will come in at 55.0, which is also in line with what the PMI services for August indicates. Tonight at 20:00 CET, the Fed is due to release the Beige Book ahead of the FOMC meeting later this month.

We estimate German factory orders rose 0.4% m/m in July after the big increases in May and June (1.1% and 1.0%, respect ively). With respect to the political development , Angela Merkel still seems on track to secure her fourth term in office, see German Election Monitor No. 1: Next euro area election unlikely to rock the boat, 29 August ).

We expect the Bank of Canada to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in light of the reduced out look for another Fed hike this year. We still pencil in one 25bp hike in Q4 this year.

In Poland, we expect the central bank to maintain the policy rate at 1.50%.

In Sweden, indust rial and service production data for July are due at 09:30 CET, see page 2.

Selected market news

US Treasuries continue to perform as the crisis in North Korea intensifies and another hurricane is approaching the US mainland. This is also reflected in the equity markets, where the main US indices all fell yesterday. The Asian equity markets have followed the move from the US markets yesterday with falling share prices across the region. The volatility in the markets is increasing as there seems to be a lack of consensus how to deal with North Korea among the US, Russia and China. Most recently, Russian President Put in has rejected more sanct ions against North Korea.

The US bond market also received support from dovish comments by Fed officials Brainard and Kashkari. Neel Kashkari stated that the rate hikes could do real harm against the economy and was against raising rates in March and June. Lael Brainard urged caution in raising rates given the low inflation. The dollar lost versus the euro and the yen on the back of the comments from the officials.

In the front end of the US yield curve, the yield on four-week US T-bills rose at the auction yesterday to the highest level since 2008 as the deadline for raising the US debt ceiling is approaching.

Asia Summary

Asian equity markets opened broadly weaker, before falling even lower on uncertainty in US policy and North Korea's latest nuclear test having a chance to reflect for the first time in the US markets after a holiday Monday. AUD held some strength for most of the session before falling to back a slightly weaker level of 0.7990, after Australia Q2 GDP came in slightly lower than expectations. Despite being lower than expectations the 0.8% q/q and 1.8% y/y solidly beat Q1 results. Treasurer Morrison said Expect FY18 budget forecasts to improve if economy stays on current path, a more conservative approach to forecasting has helped the government surpass market expectations and maintain its AAA credit rating.

Offshore yuan continued to climb as the PBOC strengthened the yuan fixing for the 8th consecutive day, making it the longest run since October 2015. A former SAFE official Guan Tao said that China has more leeway to pursue monetary policy goals as yuan’s exchange rate has stabilized this year along with improved forex reserves

Key economic data

(JP) Japan July Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.5%e; Real Cash Earnings Y/Y: -0.8% v 0.0%e (fastest decline since June 2015)

(AU) AUSTRALIA Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.8% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.9%E

Speakers and Press

China/Hong Kong

(CN) University of International Business and Economics in Beijing Zhijie: China has more room in monetary policy makes reserve ratio cut an option as yuan depreciation pressure eases

(CN) PBoC Adviser says China should encourage Blockchain technology; China should better regulate virtual currency and there should be stricter supervision for the use of virtual currencies for illegal activities - Chinese Press

(CN) China considering closing North Korea customs post - Chinese press

Korea

(KR) South Korea watching for radiation leak from North Korea test site, so far nothing detected

(KR) South Korea sovereign wealth fund: If a war were to occur on the Korean Peninsula, any impact on the semiconductor industry could be widespread, as South Korean chipmakers supply cellphone and electronics makers globally

(KR) According to analysts North Korea may have as many as 60 nuclear bombs - financial press

Japan

(JP) Former BoJ official/ President of currency think tank Institute for International Monetary Affairs (IIMA)Watanabe: BOJ should stop being obsessed with its 2% inflation target given prices and interest rates around the world remain subdued

Australia

(AU) RBA Gov Lowe: stimulatory policy continues to be appropriate (overnight)

(AU) Australia Treasurer Morrison: Expect FY18 budget forecasts to improve if economy stays on current path

Other\

(US) Fed's Kaplan (moderate, voter):Policy is not as accomodative as some think; Neutral Fed funds rate (FFR) is much closer to 2.25% than it is to 3%

(RU) Russia Energy Min Novak: Confirms OPEC and Russia may extend oil output cap if needed; OPEC deal terms may change after Q1

(SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) quarterly survey: Raises Q3 GDP outlook to 3.1% from 2.8%

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei -0.2%, Hang Seng -1.0%; Shanghai Composite -0.3%, ASX200 -0.3%, Kospi -0.4%

Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.0%; Nasdaq100 -0.9%, Dax +0.0%, FTSE100 -0.0%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.1925-1.1903; JPY 108.80-108.51; AUD 0.8021-0.7985; NZD 0.7261-0.7224

Dec Gold -0.1% at $1,343/oz; Oct Crude Oil -0.2% at $48.58/brl; Sept Copper +0.4% at $3.19/lb

(AU) Australia sells A$900M in Nov 2027 bonds, avg yield 2.6125%, bid to cover 3.16x

(CN) China PBoC injects combined CNY40B in 7-day and 28-day reverse repos v skips prior; drains net CNY120B v CNY70B prior (1st injection after 4 consecutive skips, 1st use of 28-day since June 18th)

USD/CNY *(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN REFERENCE RATE AT: 6.5311 V 6.5370 PRIOR (8TH CONSECUTIVE STRONGER SETTING, longest streak since Oct 2015)

(KR) South Korea sells KRW2.4T v KRW2.4T offered in 2-yr monetary stabilization bonds; avg yield 1.69% v 1.74% prior

(CN) China MoF sells upsized 1-yr bonds at 3.4753%; bid-to-cover 1.49x; sells 10-yr bonds at 3.6341% ; bid-to-cover 3.07x

(TH) Thailand sells THB7.0B in 18.8-yr Govt bonds; avg yield 2.8556%; bid-to-cover 3.38x

Equities notable movers

Australia/New Zealand

SXY.AU Canaccord Genuity Raised SXY.AU to Buy from Hold, price target: A$0.36; +20.4%

ACR.AU Reaches mutual agreement with Eli Lilly to terminate licensing agreement for Axiron; -24.5%

Japan

4751.JPCyberAgent Inc, will not be included in Nikkei225; -7%

6098.JPRecruit Holdings to be added to Nikkei225; +6.7%

6502.JP Board was unable to reach a decision on chip sale today – Nikkei; +3.9%

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.73% against the USD and closed at 0.8005.

LME Copper prices rose 0.5% or $31.0/MT to $6904.0/MT. Aluminium prices declined 0.6% or $13.5/MT to $2082.0/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7994, with the AUD trading 0.14% lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

Earlier today, data showed that Australia's seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) advanced by 0.8% QoQ in the second quarter of 2017, boosted by government and consumer spending and compared to a rise of 0.3% in the prior quarter. However, markets had anticipated the nation's GDP to climb 0.9%.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7952, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7910. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8032, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8070.

Looking ahead, investors will closely watch Australia's AiG performance of construction index for August, slated to release overnight. Moreover, the nation's retail sales and trade balance data, both for July, slated to release in the early hours of tomorrow, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.