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Euro Trading Marginally Higher, Ahead Of Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Data

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 0.35% against the USD and closed at 1.1967.

On the economic front, Italy's consumer confidence index unexpectedly rose to a level of 110.8 in August, surging to an eight-month high level, while market participants had anticipated it to remain steady at a revised level of 106.9 registered in the prior month.

The greenback lost ground against most of its major peers, as investors remained disappointed after comments from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, in Jackson Hole, provided little indications on the central bank's monetary policy outlook. Additionally, concerns about how tropical storm, Harvey, might impact the country's economic growth weighed on investor sentiment.

On the data front, advance goods trade deficit in the US widened more-than-expected to a level of $65.1 billion in July, amid a sharp drop in exports. In the previous month, the nation posted a revised advance goods trade deficit of $64.0 billion, while markets had expected it to widen to a level of $64.5 billion.

On the other hand, the nation's seasonally adjusted preliminary wholesale inventories registered a rise of 0.4% MoM in July, higher than market consensus for a gain of 0.3% and following an advance of 0.7% in the previous month. Moreover, the nation's Dallas Fed manufacturing business index climbed to a level of 17.0 in August, meeting market expectations and compared to a reading of 16.8 in the previous month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.1970, with the EUR trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1929, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1889. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1998, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2027.

Moving ahead, investors will direct their attention to Germany's GfK consumer confidence for September, slated to release in a while. Further, the US consumer confidence index for August, due to release later in the day, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Third Round Of Brexit Talks Underway In Brussels

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.31% against the USD and closed at 1.2929.

Meanwhile, another round of Brexit negotiations kicked off yesterday, with UK’s Labour party favouring for a softer departure from the European Union that would allow the nation to retain access to the single market.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2939, with the GBP trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2894, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.285. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2963, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2988.

Going ahead, market participants will focus on UK’s nationwide house prices for August, slated to release in a while.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Japanese Yen Reverses Its Gains In The Asian Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.43% against the JPY and closed at 108.66.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 108.81, with the USD trading 0.14% higher against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.8% in July, in line with market expectations.

The pair is expected to find support at 108.30, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.78. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.92.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Lower This Morning

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.4% against the CHF and closed at 0.9518.

On the macro front, Switzerland’s total sight deposits rose to a level of CHF579.8 billion in the week ended 25 August, compared to a level of CHF579.5 billion reported in the previous week.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9521, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9488, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9455. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9566, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9611.

With no economic releases in Switzerland today, investors will look forward to global macroeconomic news for further direction.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Loonie Trading Higher In The Morning Session

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.34% against the CAD and closed at 1.2515.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2504, with the USD trading 0.09% lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2454, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2404. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2544, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2584.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7930; (P) 0.7952; (R1) 0.7983; More...

Despite edging higher to 0.7972, AUD/USD quickly retreated back to familiar range. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Correction from 0.8065 might extend and another fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to bring rebound. Above 0.7972 will target a test on 0.8065 resistance first. Firm break of 0.8065 will resume the medium term rise and target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8097) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now in favor.

AUD/USD 4 Hours Chart

AUD/USD Daily Chart

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2463; (P) 1.2486; (R1) 1.2530; More....

USD/CAD recovers ahead of 1.2412 low and intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, break of 1.2412 will resume recent fall from 1.3793 and target next long term fibonacci level at 1.2048. On the upside, above 1.2597 minor resistance will extend the consolidation from 1.2412 with another rise. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 to bring fall resumption eventually.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. Such corrective fall is still expected to extend to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Nonetheless, on the upside, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.

USD/CAD 4 Hours Chart

USD/CAD Daily Chart

Will The Euro Continue To Rally?

Key Points:

  • Price action creeps towards the key 1.20 level.
  • RSI Oscillator nearing overbought levels.
  • Watch for a period of moderation before a break of 1.20 leads to rapid appreciation.

The Euro has continued to creep higher over the past few weeks as the currency pair has moved to form a new high for 2017. Much of the upward pressure has been to do with a weakening U.S. economy which has spurred capital flows away from the greenback and this has brought with it some robust conditions for the Euro Dollar. However, it remains to be seen if the pair can assail the psychological 1.20 handle, which is acting as some natural resistance, in the coming days.

Presently, the fundamental fear factor around North Korea has been driving capital flows away from the greenback and into safe haven's such as Gold. In addition, the rogue state's recent missile launch over Japan has increased the mounting risk of conflict and this is acting as an additional support for the Euro, amongst other currencies. Additionally, the U.S. Trade Deficit (GOODS) also widened overnight to -65.1B which has had a flow on effect for the USD and adds to the Euro's buoyancy.

However, technical factors for the Euro Dollar are likely to rule the roost in the coming days with the RSI Oscillator nearing overbought levels whilst price action reaches towards the mythical 1.20 resistance level. Subsequently, there is some evidence that a pause is what is needed for the currency pair in the short term. A short period of consolidation would relieve some of the building pressure and allow the Euro to prepare for an assault on the 1.20 level.

At this stage, it's only a matter of time before price action breaches the 1.20 resistance level and when this occurs it could lead to a significant increase for the pair. In fact, the consensus view appears to be that price action could rapidly move towards the 1.22 handle or higher over the next month. Much of this is based on speculation that the ECB will start to wind back its bond buying program in September and this would bring with it sharp gains for the pair. Additionally, the 5-year average for the Euro Dollar sits around the 1.21 mark so gains above this level are not totally unrealistic.

Ultimately, the short term outlook argues for some moderation for the pair whereas the Medium term view is one of strong bullishness. Subsequently, the pair would bear watching over the next few days because when it eventually breaks through resistance at 1.20 the rise will be relatively rapid indeed.

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1935; (P) 1.1959 (R1) 1.2002; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside as recent rally continues. Rise from 1.0339 should target 61.8% projection of 1.1118 to 1.1908 from 1.1661 at 1.2149 first. Break there will target 100% projection at 1.2451 next. On the downside, below 1.1916 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But retreat should be contained above 1.1661 support and bring rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Sustained trading above 55 month EMA (now at 1.1768) will pave the way to key fibonacci level at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516. While rise from 1.0339 is strong, there is no confirmation that it's developing into a long term up trend yet. Hence, we'll be cautious on strong resistance from 1.2516 to limit upside. For now, medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.1295 support holds, in case of pull back.

EUR/USD 4 Hours Chart

EUR/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2889; (P) 1.2915; (R1) 1.2959; More...

GBP/USD's recovery from 1.2773 is still in progress but it's limited well below 1.3030 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment and outlook remains mildly bearish. We're favoring the case that correction from 1.1946 is completed at 1.3267. Below 1.2773 will target 1.2588 key near term support first. Decisive break of 1.2588 will confirm our view and target a test on 1.1946 low. Though, break of 1.3030 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3267.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

GBP/USD 4 Hours Chart

GBP/USD Daily Chart