Sample Category Title

Weekly 


   


•    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star 
   
 

•    Time of formation: 13 Mar 2017 
   
   

•    Trend bias: Down


 


Daily



 

•    Last Candlesticks pattern: Bearish engulfing pattern 
   
 

•    Time of formation: 16 Feb 2017 
   
 

•    Trend bias: Near term down







Although the Australian dollar edged higher to 89.40 late last month, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 0.8700 is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to 86.50-60 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 86.00-10, bring another rise later, above 88.70 would suggest the pullback from 89.40 has ended, bring retest of this level first. Once this recent high is penetrated, this would confirm medium term upmove from 2016 low of 72.50 is still in progress and extend further gain to psychological resistance at 90.00, then towards previous chart resistance at 90.70. 



On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 87.00-10 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 86.60-65 and support at 85.70 should hold, bring another rise later. A daily close below support at 85.70 would suggest top has been formed, brig retracement of recent rise to 85.40-50, then 85.00, however, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 84.85) would limit downside and price should stay above the lower Kumo (now at 84.36), bring rebound later. 


Recommendation: Buy at 85.75 for 88.00 with stop below 84.75.



On the weekly chart, aussie’s retreat after rising to 89.40 formed a shooting star and the subsequent black candlestick suggests a minor top is possibly formed, hence consolidation below this level would be seen for correction to 87.00, then 86.50-60, however, reckon downside would be limited to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 86.01) and bring another rise later. Above 88.70 would bring retest of 89.40. A break above there would confirm medium term upmove from 72.50 low (formed back in 2016) is still in progress and extend headway to psychological resistance at 90.00, then test of previous resistance at 90.70, however, overbought condition should limit upside to 91.50-60 and price should falter below another previous chart resistance at 92.70, bring correction later.

On the downside, although initial pullback to 87.00, then 86.50-60 cannot be ruled out, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 86.01) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Below the Kijun-Sen (now at 85.46) would suggest a temporary top is formed instead, bring retracement of recent rise to 85.00, then 84.60-65, however, still reckon the upper Kumo (now at 83.70) would remain intact.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
    •    Time of formation: 10 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
    •    Time of formation: 18 Jul 2017
    •    Trend bias: Up



As aussie met resistance again just below 0.8000 level, retaining our view that initial consolidation below recent high of 0.8066 would be seen and near term downside risk remains for retracement to 0.7877-78 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7571-0.8066 and previous support), however, reckon 0.7815-20 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would limit downside and bring another rise later, above 0.8000 would bring retest of 0.8066 but break there is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend the medium term erratic rise from 0.6827 to 0.8163 resistance, then 0.8200, however, loss of near term upward momentum should limit upside and reckon another previous resistance at 0.8295 would hold.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 0.7877-78 cannot be ruled out, reckon 0.7815-20 would limit downside and bring another upmove later. A daily close below support at 0.7786 would bring test of 0.7760 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7571-0.8066), however, only break of indicated support at 0.7712 would confirm top has been formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.7650-60 first.



Recommendation: Buy at 0.7800 for 0.8000 with stop below 0.7700.



On the weekly chart, aussie’s retreat after rising to 0.8066 suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside bias is for pullback to 0.7815-20, however, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7794) would limit downside and bring another rise later. above 0.8000 would bring retest of 0.8066, break there would extend recent upmove from 0.6827 low to previous resistance at 0.8163, then 0.8250, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to another previous resistance at 0.8295 and price should falter below 0.8390-00, bring retreat later.

On the downside, although initial pullback to 0.7875-80 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to previous resistance at 0.7835 (now support) and bring another rise later. Below 0.7750 would bring pullback towards previous resistance at 0.7712, break there would suggest top is possibly formed, bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7698) but break there is needed to provide confirmation, bring further fall towards said support at 0.7571 which should remain intact.

USD/CHF - 0.9683

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 0.9695

Kijun-Sen level                    : 0.9715

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 0.9730

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 0.9718

Original strategy :

Bought at 0.9725, stopped at 0.9690

Position : - Long at 0.9725

Target :  -

Stop : - 0.9690

New strategy  :

Sell at 0.9725, Target: 0.9625, Stop: 0.9760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback extended recent rise from 0.9438 to 0.9772, lack of follow through buying on break of previous resistance at 0.9765 and the subsequent retreat suggest top is possibly formed there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.9645 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9438-0.9773), however, break of support at 0.9631 is needed to add credence to this view, bring further fall towards 0.9605-10 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

In view of this, we are looking to sell dollar on recovery as 0.9730-35 should limit upside. Only break of yesterday’s high at 0.9773 would abort and revive bullishness for the rise from 0.9438 to extend gain to 0.9800-10. 
 

EUR/GBP drops after the false breakout above the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line). Could come down to retest the 0.9000 psychological level before will try to resume the upside movement. We have a bullish bias on the Daily chart, but a drop below the psychological level will open the door for a drop towards the median line (ML) of the major ascending pitchfork. Resistance can be found at the wl3 as well.

Price drops like a rock and looks unstoppable on the short term. Is trading near the 0.7320 level and should drop further. NZD/USD is seeking for strong support and could find one at the fourth warning line (wl4). Could be attracted by the confluence area formed at the intersection between the warning line (wl4) and the 38.2% retracement level.

AUD/USD plunged and resumed the bearish momentum as the USD received a helping hand from the United States data. Price reached a major dynamic obstacle, where has found temporary support again. Is trading in the red as the dollar index stays above the 93.50 psychological level, the index will climb towards new highs if the United States data will come in line with expectations or better. You should keep an eye on the economic calendar in the afternoon to see what will drive the rate.

Aussie dropped on the poor Chinese and Australian numbers, but has squeezed a little in the last hours. The Chinese CPI rose by 1.4% in July, less compared to the 1.5% estimate, while the PPI surged only by 5.5%, despite that the traders have expected to see a 5.6% growth. Moreover, the Australian Home Loans surged by 0.5%, less compared to the 1.5% estimate and versus the 1.1% growth in the former reading period, while the Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropped by 1.2% in August from the 0.4% in July.

Price dropped and touched the lower median line (LML) of the major ascending pitchfork, where has found strong demand. Has broken below the 0.7874 static support, but wasn’t able to stay there as the dollar index looks ready to decrease a little again.

AUD/USD dropped also below the median line (ml) of the minor ascending pitchfork, but right now we have only a false breakdown. The current decrease is natural after the false breakout above the 50% Fibonacci line (ascending dotted line) and above the warning line (wl1) of the minor ascending pitchfork.

You can see that I’ve drawn a minor descending pitchfork to catch a potential downside movement, price retested the median line and now could try to reach the lower median line of the mentioned support levels will cave in.

GBP/USD - 1.3020

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2998

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.3001

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.3090

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.3040

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.3055, Target: 1.2955, Stop: 1.3090

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.3000, Target: 1.3100, Stop: 1.2965

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable slipped to 1.2953 yesterday, the subsequent rebound suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and gain to 1.3059 resistance is likely, however, break there is needed to signal low is possibly formed, bring test of the upper Kumo (now at 1.3090), break there would add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3110-20 but resistance at 1.3165 should remain intact.

In view of this, we are looking to turn long on dips for such rebound. Below 1.2965-70 would signal decline has resumed and extend the fall from 1.3269 top towards previous chart support at 1.2933 but reckon 1.2900 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later. 

EUR/USD - 1.1748

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1742

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1767

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1809

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1804

Original strategy  :

Sold at 1.1770, Target: 1.1670, Stop: 1.1805

Position : - Short at 1.1770

Target :  - 1.1670

Stop : - 1.1805

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 1.1770, Target: 1.1670, Stop: 1.1805

Position : - Short at 1.1770

Target :  - 1.1670

Stop : - 1.1805

Although the single currency found support at 1.1715 yesterday and recovered, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1770-80 and bring another decline, below said support would extend the fall from 1.1910 top for retracement of early upmove to 1.1700 and then 1.0670 but reckon support at 1.1650 would remain intact due to oversold condition. 

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.1770. Above 1.1800-05 would risk another test of 1.1824-30 resistance but only break there would signal the erratic fall from 1.1910 has ended, bring further gain to 1.1855-60 first.

USD/JPY - 110.01

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 110.03

Kijun-Sen level                  : 110.29

Ichimoku cloud top             : 110.70

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 110.53

Original strategy  :

Bought at 110.30, stopped at 110.25

Position :  - Long at 110.30

Target :  -

Stop : - 110.25

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite yesterday’s brief bounce to 110.83, the subsequent selloff dampened our near term bullishness and the breach of previous support at 109.85 signals recent decline has resumed, hence downside risk remains for weakness to 109.70, then 109.50, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 109.20-25 and price should stay above 109.00.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at  110.29) would suggest an intra-day low is possibly formed, bring rebound to 110.55-60 but break there is needed to add credence to this view, then test of 110.83 and later 111.05 would follow.

The latest Chinese economic data points to steady global demand. The world’s second-largest economy trade surplus grew for a 5th consecutive month in July, as demand for Chinese goods held up in the face of growing tensions with the US.

Another set of unexpectedly positive data out of the US saw USD gain against many of its peers on Tuesday. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS Job Openings (Jun) release of 6.163 million was 388K better than the expected release of 5.775 million, resulting in a record number of job openings in the US.

Further USD buying resulted from the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) (Aug) that was released with a 52.2 reading besting the consensus of 50.6, indicating US consumer’s improved optimism towards current economic conditions. Typically, these US indicators are not 'market impactful' however, with somewhat lackluster markets of late, any news, whether positive or negative, is having an exaggerated effect on the markets.

The latest tensions between the US and North Korea caused President Trump to react with the comment that further threats from North Korea would be met with 'Fire & Fury'. The markets reacted with a slight risk off sentiment with typical safe havens, such as JPY and Gold, in demand.

EURUSD gave up 0.5% on Tuesday, hitting a low of 1.17147 on the back of positive US data. Currently, EURUSD is trading around 1.1740.

USDJPY was subdued on Tuesday, trading in a sub 60 pip range. Currently, USDJPY is trading around 110.00 after reaching a 2-month low in early trading of 109.738, following Trumps reaction to North Korea.

GBPUSD, after holding above 1.30, broke lower to 1.29521 on Tuesday due to overall USD bullishness. GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.2990.

Gold dropped 0.4% on Tuesday to trade as low as $1,251.41, before rebounding higher overnight as markets bought 'safe havens'. Gold is currently trading around $1,265.

WTI edged 0.35% lower on Tuesday, as Saudi Arabia said it would pressure other OPEC members to improve their compliance rate, but there is still the question of Libya and Nigeria, both exempt from the cuts, which are ramping up their oil output at a respectable rate. WTI is currently trading around $49.18pb.

At 11:00 BST the UK Treasury Committee will hold its Inflation Report Hearings.

At 13:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity (Q2). A mixed result is expected with Unit Labor Costs expected to be 1.2% (prev. 2.2%) and Nonfarm Productivity expected at 0.7% (prev. 0.0%).

At 15:30 BST, EIA Crude Oil Stocks change (Aug 4) will be released, with a consensus drawdown of -2.800 Million. With successive recent drawdowns, the market will be evaluating the release in respect to overall US supply/demand.

At 22:00 BST, The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will publish its Interest Rate decision and its Monetary Policy statement. Consensus is for the RBNZ to hold interest rates at 1.75%, but markets will be wary for any change in the 'tone' of monetary policy.