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USD/CAD's short-term bullish momentum continues. Hourly resistance is given at 1.2619 (03/08/2017) while support can be found at 1.2414 (27/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued consolidation above 1.2400.

In the longer term, the pair has broken longterm support that can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low) before bouncing back. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). The pair should head further lower

USD/CHF's bullish momentum continues. Hourly support can be found at 0.9631 (01/08/2017 low). Strong resistance is given at 0.9771 (15/06/2017 high) is on target. Expected to to show further strengthening.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9677; (P) 0.9720; (R1) 0.9771; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside as rebound from 0.9473 continues. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9783 first. As noted before, prior break of 0.9699 resistance suggests near term reversal after defending 0.9443 key support. Break of 0.9783 will target channel resistance (now at 0.9887). On the downside, break of 0.9630 is needed to indicate completion of the rebound. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 key support level. And long term range trading in 0.9443/1.0342 is extending with another rise. At this point, there is no sign of an up trend yet. Hence, while further rise is expected in USD/CHF, we'll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9996.

USD/JPY's bearish momentum continues. Yet, the pair is monitoring resistance implied by the upper bound of the downtrend channel. Hourly support is given at 109.85 (04/08/2017 low). Stronger support is located at a distance at 108.83 (17/04/2017 low). Expected to show further downside pressures.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

GBP/USD still lies within a bullish trend despite ongoing consolidation. Hourly resistance is given at 1.3267 (03/08/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 1.2933 (20/07/2017 low). Expected to show growing bearish pressures.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

EUR/USD bullish pressures are still on despite ongoing consolidation. The pair has reached 1.1910 (02/08/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.1728 (04/08/2017 high). Stronger support lies at 1.1613 (26/07/2017 low). Expected to show continued bullish pressures.

In the longer term, the momentum is now turning largely positive. We favour a continued bullish bias. Key resistance holding at 1.1871 (24/08/2015 high) has been broken while strong support lies at 1.0341 (03/01/2017 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.98; (P) 110.52; (R1) 111.19; More....

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 109.83 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rise could be seen. But still, near term outlook stays bearish as long as 112.18 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected. Break of 109.83 will target 108.81 support first. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 112.18 resistance will dampen our bearish view and turn focus back to 114.49 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2574; (P) 1.2621; (R1) 1.2691; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rebound from 1.2412 could be correcting whole fall from 1.3793. Further rise would be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940. On the downside, break of 1.2552 minor support will indicate completion of the rebound. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.2412 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. A short term bottom is formed at 1.2412 after hitting 61.8% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.2415. But there is no sign of completion of the correction yet. Break of 1.2412 will target 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.2968, 38.2% retracement of 1.3793 to 1.2412 at 1.2940 will be the first sign of completion of the correction and will turn focus back to 1.3793 key resistance.

EUR/USD – 1.1807

EUR/USD:   Wave (c) of 2 ended at 1.3993 and wave 3 of III has commenced for weakness to 1.0411 (1.236 of wave 1), then 1.0000.

Although the single currency edged higher and rose to as high as 1.1910 late last week, the subsequent retreat on Friday suggests minor top is formed there and consolidation below this level would be seen with initial downside bias for test of 1.1723-28 support, break there would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1660-70, then towards support at 1.1613, however, reckon downside would be limited to previous resistance at 1.1583 and price should stay well above support at 1.1479, bring another upmove later.

Our preferred count on the daily chart remains that a wave (II) from 1.2329 ended at 1.5145 with A-leg ended at 1.4720, followed by wave B at 1.2457, the wave C from there was also a 3 legged move and is labeled as (a): 1.3739, (b): 1.2885, the wave iii of the 5-waver (c) from 1.2885 has ended at 1.4339 and wave iv is a triangle ended at 1.3878 and wave v formed a top at 1.5145. The decline from there is a 5-waver (C) with minor wave (i) of I of (C) ended at 1.4218 with wave (ii) ended at 1.4580, wave (iii) ended at 1.3267 and wave (iv) ended at 1.3692 and wave (v) ended at 1.1876, this is also the low of wave I of (C) and wave II ended at 1.4940, hence wave III is now in progress with a diagonal wave 1 ended at 1.2042, the breach of previous support at 1.1876 (wave I trough) adds credence to our view that the wave 2 has ended at 1.3993, wave 3 has commenced for further weakness to 1.0411, then towards 1.0000.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.1840-50 cannot be ruled out, said resistance at 1.1910 should hold and bring another retreat. Above said last week’s high at 1.1910 would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove from 1.0340 low (wave 3 trough) to 1.1950, then 1.2000-10, break there would encourage for further gain to wave 4 to 1.2100 but price should falter well below 1.2220-30, bring retreat later. 

Recommendation: Buy at 1.1600 for 1.1800 with stop below 1.1500

Euro's long-term uptrend started from 0.8228 (26 Oct 2000) with an impulsive structure. The rise from 0.8228 to 0.9593 (5 Jan 2001) is labeled as wave I, the retreat to 0.8352 (6 Jul 2001) is wave II and the rally to 1.3670 (31 Dec 2004) is wave III. Wave IV from there ended at 1.1640 (15 Nov 2005), the subsequent upmove to 1.6040 (July 15, 2008) is treated as wave V, the major selloff from the record high of 1.6040 to 1.2329 (October 27, 2008) signals a reversal has taken place with (I) leg ended at 1.2329 and once (II) ended at 1.5145, wave (III) itself is an extended move with I: 1.1876 and complex wave II ended at 1.4902, wave III has commenced with wave 1 and 2 ended at 1.2042 and 1.3993 respectively, wave 3 of III is now unfolding for weakness towards parity.

USD/JPY - 110.80

USD/JPY – Wave V of larger degree circle V has possibly ended at 75.31 and major correction has commenced and already met indicated target at 125.00.

The greenback did extend recent fall from 114.50 (our short position entered at 112.00 met target at 110.00 with 200 points profit), however, as dollar found good support at 109.85 late last week and has staged a strong rebound in part due to NFP, suggesting a temporary low is possibly formed there and 1-2 weeks of consolidation above this level would be seen, hence initial recovery to 111.20-30 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to 111.70-75 and resistance at 112.20 should hold, bring another decline later this month. A drop below said support at 109.85 would signal the selloff from 114.50 top is still in progress and may extend weakness to 109.30-40 but reckon previous support at 108.82 would hold from here, price should stay well above this year’s low at 108.13, bring rebound later. 

Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding (indicated upside target at 125.00 had been met) for gain towards 127.00 level. In the event dollar drops below support at 99.01, this would confirm medium term decline from 125.86 top (2015 high) has resumed for subsequent weakness to 98.00 and possibly 97.00.

Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 125.00 had been met and gain to 127.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 130.00.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 111.20-30 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 111.71 and 112.20 should hold, bring another decline. A daily close above said resistance at 112.20 would defer and signal the first leg of decline from 114.50 has ended instead, bring a strong rebound to 112.85-90 but resistance at 113.58 should cap upside, bring another selloff later.

Recommendation: Short entered at 112.00 met target at 110.00 with 200 points profit and would sell again at 112.00 for 110.00 with stop above 113.00.

On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to (indicated upside target at 122.00 and 125.00 had been met), the retreat from 125.86 suggests wave A of major correction has ended there and wave B correction back to 99.00, then 95.00 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 90.00, bring another rebound in wave C next year.