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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3076; (P) 1.3172; (R1) 1.3231; More...

Despite the sharp fall from 1.3267, GBP/USD is still holding above 1.3096 minor support. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Overall, price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a corrective pattern. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of .3096 will be the first sign of reversal. Intraday bias will be turned back to 1.2932 support first in that case. Break of 1.3267 will extend the rise. But, we'll look for topping signal again around 1.3444 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is expected, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

On Thursday, the US Dollar posted a sharp fall against the Yen after the ISM report showed softer-than-expected growth in non-manufacturing sectors. After the release, the USD/JPY exchange rate showed an immediate 0.09% fall to 110.259, a sign for a stronger bearish sentiment. The Institute of Supply Management reported that its Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped more than anticipated to 53.9 points in July after rising to 57.4 in the previous month. Weak recent reports are set to discourage the Federal Reserve to make one more rate hike this year and keep the Greenback biased downwards. In addition, the NFP report on Friday is more likely to disappoint forecasts, while wage component would determine whether higher interest rates are allowable.

During the last month, Britain's officials fuelled expectations that the Central Bank was likely to raise interest rates, though Thursday's reports showed it unchanged, resulting in the immediate fall in the GBP/USD currency pair. The Sterling fell against the US Dollar by 0.44% to be seen trading at 1.3180 as the Bank of England kept its dovish stance. The Central Bank's key rate remained at a record-low level of 0.25% amid anticipations for subdued growth of wages and diminishing forecasts for economic expansion, as companies showed more cautious approach to investments. A weaker Pound, though, could push inflation higher to eventually reach 3% in October. Still, experts saw possibility of a rate hike only along with first signs of sustainable expansion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9665; (P) 0.9690; (R1) 0.9710; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as consolidation from 0.9726 temporary top continues. . Another rise is expected as long as 0.9594 support holds. Prior break of 0.9699 resistance suggests near term reversal after defending 0.9443 key support. Above 0.9726 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9783 first. Break will target channel resistance (now at 0.9890). However, firm break of 0.9594 will dampen this bullish view and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9437.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 key support level. And long term range trading in 0.9443/1.0342 is extending with another rise. At this point, there is no sign of an up trend yet. Hence, while further rise is expected in USD/CHF, we'll start to be cautious on loss of momentum above 61.8% retracement of 1.0342 to 0.9437 at 0.9996.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 109.65; (P) 110.24; (R1) 110.62; More....

Breach of 109.91 suggests that fall from 114.49 is resuming. Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned back to the downside for 108.81 support. Break there will resume whole correction from 118.65 and target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.97 will turn bias neutral again. But still, as long as 112.18 remains intact, outlook stays bearish for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 118.65 suggests that rise from 98.97 is not completed yet. Break of 118.65 will target a test on 125.85 high. At this point, it's uncertain whether rise from 98.97 is resuming the long term up trend from 75.56, or it's a leg in the consolidation from 125.85. Hence, we'll be cautious on topping as it approaches 125.85. If fall from 118.65 extends lower, down side should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48 and bring rebound.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair recovered from a daily low of 1.1830 and settled at 1.1871, shrugging off early soft European data, and as investors still prefer to sell the greenback. Released at the beginning of the day, the EU final Markit July Services and Composite PMIs resulted below initial estimates and in line with the manufacturing readings released earlier this week. The German´s services sector advanced at its slowest pace since September 2016, resulting at 53.1 from 53.5, with the composite figure at 54.7 from 55.1. For the whole region, growth posted a six-month low according to Markit, with the composite index at 55.7 in July. Things in the US were not much better, as the official ISM non-manufacturing index fell more than anticipated, down to 53.9 in July, while the Markit figure was revised up to 54.7 from 54.2. Weekly unemployment claims for the week ended July 28th, were of 240K slightly better than a previously revised 245, but far from impressive.

Despite the little intraday volatility, the pair retains its bullish stance ahead of the NFP report, to be released early Friday, and seems unlikely that, even with a strong reading, the trend could change course, although a downward corrective move can't be dismissed, particularly ahead of the weekend. Technically, the 4 hour chart shows that the price remains above a bullish 20 SMA currently around 1.1830, providing an immediate short term support, whist technical indicators hold well into positive territory, but with little directional strength, as the market entered wait-and-see mode ahead of the event. A really disappointing US employment report, could result in the pair ending the week near the 1.2000 threshold, while a slide down to 1.1715, August 2015 monthly high, will hardly affect the dominant bullish trend.

Support levels: 1.1830 1.1790 1.1750

Resistance levels: 1.1910 1.1950 1.1990

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair fell down to 109.94 during the US session, but managed to bounce some, still ending the day in the red at 110.18. The decline started after the BOE's monetary policy latest decision, as bond yields fell in the kingdom, dragging US ones lower, later fueled by a poor US ISM non-manufacturing index for July, which resulted at 53.9, well below previous 57.4 and the expected 57.0. The pair bounced after nearing its recent low and as investors were unwilling to push the pair before the 110.00 mark ahead of the key US employment report release this Friday. Trading at its lowest in near two-months, the pair is poised to extend its decline on a break below 109.90, the immediate static support, given that in the 4 hours chart, the price remains well below its 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest having accelerated below the largest, and with technical indicators holding within bearish territory. There's a long way to the upside before calling a trend change, and seems unlikely that this would happen, even if US data surprise to the upside, as the pair would need to close the week at least above 112.40 to have an opportunity the next one.

Support levels: 109.90 109.40 108.80

Resistance levels: 110.35 110.80 111.20

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair was the star of the day, but for the wrong reasons, as it plunged to a fresh weekly low of 1.3111 following BOE's monetary policy decision. The Sterling started the day with a strong footing, advancing to a fresh yearly high of 1.3266 against the greenback following the release of the latest UK services PMI that beat expectations at 53.8, but the BOE was a game changer. The Central Bank maintained rates unchanged at record lows of 0.25%, while two MPC members voted for a rate hike, in line with market's expectations. Still the statement was tilted as dovish, a growth and wage growth forecast have been lowered, while inflation is now seen higher than within the previous projections, leaving a rate hike out of the table for now. Technically and for the short-term, the pair is now bearish as in the 4 hours chart, the price broke below its 20 SMA, now mostly flat above the current level, while technical indicators continue heading lower well below their mid-lines. Below the daily low, the pair will likely extend its slide, with the pair mostly seen ending the week near the 1.3000 figure.

Support levels: 1.3110 1.3075 1.3030

Resistance levels: 1.3150 1.3190 1.3225

GOLD

Spot gold plunged at the beginning of the session, later bouncing from a weekly low of 1,257.00 to settle at $1,268.25 a troy ounce. Demand for high yielding assets was behind the early decline, but as sentiment deteriorated though the day, the safe-haven commodity recovered its shine. Adding to the recovery were worse-than-expected US macroeconomic releases, which sent the greenback lower against most of its major rivals. Spot's daily chart shows that the early decline reverted from near a still flat 100 DMA, whilst the 20 DMA accelerated its advance below the largest, and is about to cross it, usually a sign of trend continuation. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart keeps easing within positive territory, but the RSI remains firm around 65, limiting chances of a downward move. In the shorter term and according to the 4 hours chart, gold is now neutral, as the price is hovering around a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators lack directional strength, now stuck around their mid-lines.

Support levels: 1,263.65 1,257.30 1,246.40

Resistance levels: 1,274.05 1,283.30 1,290.10

WTI CRUDE OIL

West Texas Intermediate crude futures retreated from an early advance towards 50.00 and closed the day in the red around $49.20 a barrel. Investor choose to take profits out after the US benchmark reached the key threshold, as oversupply concerns still weighed. According to a Reuters´ report, OPEC's crude oil exports rose to a record highs in July, driven by soaring exports from the group's African members, adding pressure on oil prices. Technically, the daily chart shows that the price was unable to advance beyond an anyway horizontal 200 DMA, while the 20 DMA kept advancing below the current level and it's about to cross above the 100 DMA, both converging around 47.70. Technical indicators in the mentioned time frame keep retreating within positive territory, not enough to support a bearish extension, but limiting chances of a steeper recovery. Shorter term and according to the 4 hours chart, the commodity looks increasingly bearish, as it settled below a horizontal 20 SMA, while technical indicators turned south within negative territory after failing to surpass their mid-lines.

Support levels: 48.80 48.30 47.70

Resistance levels: 50.20 50.85 51.40

DJIA

US major indexes closed mixed, although not far from their opening levels, with a retracement in the tech sector leading the way lower. Nevertheless, caution prevailed ahead of the release of the US monthly employment report, with the DJIA confined to a tight intraday range and ending higher by 9 points at 22,026.10 its seventh consecutive record close. The Nasdaq Composite settled 22 points lower at 6,340.34, while the S&P shed 5 points, or 0.22%, to 2.472.16. Pfizer was the best performer, adding 1.46%, followed by 3M which gained 1.00%. El du Pont led decliners, down 1.25%. From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the DJIA shows that the index held near its recent highs, maintaining the bullish stance as indicators continue heading higher within overbought levels, albeit with the RSI partially losing upward strength, whilst the index is further above its moving averages, despite the 20 DMA accelerated north. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is neutral-to-bullish, as the index held above a bullish 20 SMA, now the immediate support at 21,991, the RSI indicator remains flat around 71, while the Momentum corrected lower within positive territory, now bouncing modestly from its mid-line.

Support levels: 21,991 21,940 21,895

Resistance levels: 22,043 22,090 22,140

FTSE100

The FTSE 100 closed at 7,474.77, up 63 points on the day, as the Pound plunged following the BOE's monetary policy decision, also backed by a recovery of mining-related equities. Next topped winners' list adding 9.67% after raising the lower end of its full-year sales guidance, followed by Randgold Resources which added 3.43&. ConvaTec was the worst performer, down 6.38%, after the company’s first-half operating profit fell to $193.5 million from $209 million a year ago. The index advanced within its weekly range, paring gains right below Monday's top of 7,515, with a modestly positive tone in its daily chart, as the index settled above its moving averages, with the 20 DMA gaining some bullish traction, as technical indicators bounced from their mid-lines, with limited upward strength. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators are barely retreating from their daily highs, sill near overbought levels, whilst the index settled above all of its moving averages that anyway continue lacking directional strength.

Support levels: 7,440 7,392 7,340

Resistance levels: 7,485 7,520 7,551

DAX

European equities closed mixed this Thursday, with the German DAX shedding 26 points or 0.22% to end at 12,154.72. Soft data released in Asia weighed on local shares, denting market's sentiment in the following sessions. The banking sector was the best performer in Germany, with Commerzbank leading the way higher by adding 2.51%, while Deutsche Bank closed 0.56% higher. The technology sector changed course and fell, with Siemens leading decliners, down 2.98%, followed by Volkswagen which closed 1.09% lower. From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows that the index remained in the lower end of its weekly range, and at risk of falling further, as technical indicators keep heading south near oversold territory, whilst the 20 DMA has extended its advance above the current level and below the 100 DMA. In the 4 hours chart, the technical stance is neutral-to-bearish, as the index remained capped below its 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its 100 level and the RSI indicator gains downward strength, currently around 41.

Support levels: 12,121 12,084 12,039

Resistance levels: 12,191 12,245 12,295

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7918; (P) 0.7943; (R1) 0.7972; More...

AUD/USD's consolidation from 0.8065 is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. . Further rise is in favor with 0.7877 support intact. Break of 0.8065 will target 100% projection of 0.6826 to 0.7833 from 0.7328 at 0.8335. Nonetheless, break of 0.7877 will indicate short term topping, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7711 resistance turned support.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rise. There is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we'll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, further rise is now expected to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

The greenback had yet another setback overnight ahead of the eagerly-anticipated non-farm payrolls data out today. Following yesterday's disappointing ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the dollar slid on an alleged grand jury issuance of subpoenas about a June 2016 meeting President Trump's son and his son-in-law held with a Russian lawyer. The dollar index weakened about a tenth-of-a-percent to last trade at 92.74.

In Asia, forex markets had a mixed reaction against the dollar. The yen and the aussie firmed up against the greenback, while the kiwi was slightly pressured (down at $0.7433). The aussie found support from an upbeat economic outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia and better-than-expected retail sales. Australia's central bank expects economic growth to pick up over the next two years to around 3%. However little or no improvement is expected in unemployment or wage growth, signaling a shift in monetary policy is not on the table. Monthly retail sales in Australia grew 0.3% in June, above the forecasted rate of 0.2%. In the second quarter retail sales expanded at a 1.5% rate, q/q, above the 1.2% expected gain. Aussie/dollar was last trading at 0.7969. The yen was up as well, mostly due to the broad dollar weakness with the pair last trading at 110.08.

Traders will be closely monitoring the release of the jobs report out of the US later in the day. Economists are expecting 183,000 more added jobs in July, down from 222K in June; while the unemployment rate is expected at 4.3%. Should the report show the labor market to be in a better condition compared to expectations, it could provide support for the weakening dollar. The US currency has had another setback against most of its peers on further legal actions against Trump's close aids. Allegedly, a grand jury has issued subpoenas in connection with a meeting Trump's son and son-in-law held with a Russian lawyer, which is signaling that the investigation against the President's close circle is gaining momentum.

The euro gained further against the dollar and was last trading at $1.1879. Apart from monthly factory orders out of Germany, no other key data is expected today out of the eurozone. German factory orders rose 1% in June, month-on-month coming in above the 0.5% expected level.

Sterling failed to reverse yesterday's plunge against the dollar, which was caused by the dovish take by the Bank of England on monetary policy. Pound/dollar was off its lows against the weakened dollar at 1.3140.

The loonie was stronger as traders await employment numbers from Canada as well. Dollar/loonie was last down to trade at 1.2565.

Looking at commodities, oil prices declined while gold was up on the weakness in the greenback. Oil prices tumbled about 0.20% during the Asian session, with WTI last trading at $48.94 a barrel while Brent was at $51.92. Gold was last trading at $1,269.21 an ounce.

Price tries to extend the latest gains an to hit another upside target. is trading above the 1.1500 psychological level and is very close to delete the yesterday's minor losses. Has found temporary resistance at the second warning line (wl2) of the minor ascending pitchfork. Could be attracted by the confluence area formed between the second warning line (wl2) and the third warning line (WL3).

The yellow metal is located in the buyer’s territory and should climb much higher in the upcoming days. Looks undecided right now, but maintains a bullish perspective after the failure to reach and retest some support levels (resistance turned into support).

You can see that has come down in the yesterday’s session, but failed to retest the sliding line (SL) and the warning line (WL1), signaling that the buyers are still in the game and could push it towards the 38.2% retracement level.