Sample Category Title

The yellow metal continues to trade in accordance with the descending channel pattern, as the commodity price bounced off the support of the channel on Monday. That means that a short term ascending pattern is highly set to reveal itself. The reason or that is the fact that in accordance with the theory the bullion’s price should surge up to the resistance of the channel down. However, the surge has already been hindered by the 55-hour SMA, which on Tuesday morning was located just below the 1,215 mark. Although, it could be observed already during the early hours of the trading session that the metal will make another attempt at breaking through the SMA. If the metal succeeds at that, it will face additional resistance from the 100-hour SMA, which was fluctuating below 1,220 level.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7589; (P) 0.7602; (R1) 0.7617; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. With 0.7534 support intact, another rise is in favor. Above 0.7643 minor resistance will bring retest of 0.7711. Break will extend the rally from 0.7328 to 0.7748 resistance and above. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout yet. Hence, we'd be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. On the downside, break of 0.7534 will indicate near term reversal and turn bias back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8082) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2861; (P) 1.2896; (R1) 1.2925; More....

USD/CAD lost some downside momentum with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. But with 1.3013 resistance intact, further decline is still expected. Current fall from 1.3793 should extend to retest 1.2460 low. However, break of 1.3013 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back tot he upside for 1.3164/3346 resistance zone first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The second leg should have finished at 1.3793. Break of 1.2460 will extend such correction to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4869 at 1.2048. At this point, we'd look for strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. However, firm break there will target 100% projection of 1.4689 to 1.2460 from 1.3793 at 1.1564.

The US Dollar was trading in a small range against the Yen on Monday. The pair entered a consolidation period, thus demonstrating the almost equal force of bulls and bears. The American currency edged higher in the morning session and surpassed the two-month high at 114.34. Technical indicators suggest that the upside momentum has not yet allayed, signalling to further increase in price. The nearest level of resistance is the upper channel boundary circa 114.80. However, the pair is more likely to trade sideways due to lack of major fundamental events, thus being located in the 114.70/80 area on Wednesday morning. In case of stronger downside risks, the 55-hour SMA should support the Greenback from falling lower.

Bears prevailed on Monday's session, pushing the Sterling below the monthly PP at 1.2883. Subsequently, the pair fluctuated around the 20-hour SMA, but nevertheless failed to surpass the aforementioned PP. Apart from some bigger leaps in both directions, the pair demonstrated low volatility that resulted from a lack of market shakers. The same situation is likely to occur in this session, forming a consolidation phase. In this case, it should be apparent that the channel down will not hold any longer and some alteration may be due. Given the bearish sentiment, the pair may trade lower in the upcoming hours; however, upside risks should guide the Pound north in the evening. Gains may be capped at 1.2926, while the bottom limit should be circa 1.2828.

As it was expected, the EUR/USD currency pair has continued to trade near the 1.14 mark. However, recent fluctuations have revealed additional information, which is enforcing the previous forecasts. In general, the hypothesis of a decline of the Euro against the US Dollar is being strengthened by the fact that a new pattern was spotted. The new pattern is a short term descending triangle. The triangle shows that the currency exchange rate is building up downwards pressure, as the support levels from 1.1390 to 1.1380 are holding ground. Most likely the currency pair will fall by the end of the day and reach for the combined support of the weekly S1 and the monthly pivot point at the 1.1331 level.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1384

Yesterday's tight trading range signals a bearish bias, for a break through 1.1380 and slide towards 1.1290+ area. The mentioned dip should be the final leg of the consolidation pattern below 1.1445, before upmove towards 1.1550.

USD/JPY

Current level - 114.38

My outlook remains bullish, for a rise towards 115.50 area. Key intraday support lies at 114.00, followed by the major one at 113.50.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2873

My outlook is bearish below 1.2900, for a violation of 1.2860, towards 1.2790 area. Crucial on the upside is 1.2980.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1380; (P) 1.1399 (R1) 1.1417; More.....

EUR/USD's consolidation from 1.1444 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 1.1291 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption. Break of 1.1444 will extend the rally from 1.0339 low to 1.1615 resistance next. Meanwhile, break of 1.1291 will turn focus back to 1.1118 support instead.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 1.1298 resistance further affirm medium term reversal. That is an important bottom was formed at 1.0339 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Further rise would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 1.1763). Sustained break there will pave the way to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 1.0339 (2017 low) at 1.2516 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1118 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2853; (P) 1.2881; (R1) 1.2907; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 1.3029 continues. Downside is expected to be contained by 1.2849 support to bring rise resumption. Above 1.2982 minor resistance should turn bias back to the upside for 1.3047 resistance. Break will target 61.8% projection of 1.2108 to 1.3047 from 1.2588 at 1.3168 next. However, sustained break of 1.2849 will dampen our near term bullish view and turn focus back to 1.2588 support.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern that is still in progress. While further upside is now in favor, overall outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Larger down trend from 1.7190 is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.

'For a few months now, it has been clear to investors that the ECB must leave its expansive course. This expectation has intensified for investors over the past few weeks.' - Sentix

Euro zone Sentix economic sentiment remained close to the ten-year high, a private survey showed on Monday. The Sentix Investor Confidence Index dropped 0.1 point to 28.3 in June, following a reading of 28.4 in the preceding month and beating forecasts for a decline to 28.1. In the last few days, market activity was determined by investors' fears over interest rate policy changes in the EU. With a strongly improved economic momentum in the Euro zone, investors' assessment of the current situation increased for the seventh consecutive time, reaching 37.3 points, the highest level in nearly 10 years. Though, the Sentix Economic Index for expectations was in the range between 19.8 and 21.0 points, staying confidently positive, as investors anticipated that the current trends would continue, with the economic growth eventually reaching its peak. Apart from that, the survey showed that investors' sentiment on the central bank's impact on the European bond market was pessimistic amid expectations for the bonds to be hit in the next months, as the ECB starts moving closer to monetary policy tightening.