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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD rose 0.08% against the USD and closed at 0.7588.

LME Copper prices rose 0.3% or $18.0/MT to $5789.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.4% or $6.5/MT to $1861.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7604, with the AUD trading 0.21% higher against the USD from yesterday's close. The pair is expected to find support at 0.7579, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7555.

The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7626, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7649.

Going ahead, Australia's HIA new home sales data for May, set to release in the early hours of tomorrow, will garner market attention.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR rose 1.44% against the USD and closed at 1.1341, following hawkish remarks from the European Central Bank (ECB) President, Mario Draghi.

The ECB Chief signalled that the central bank could scale back its stimulus efforts if the economy continues to be on the strong recovery path, but added that any such move would be gradual. However, Draghi noted that the Euro-bloc still requires a substantial monetary stimulus to bring a durable and self-sustaining rise in inflation.

On the macro front, Italy's consumer confidence index rose more-than-expected to a level of 106.4 in June, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 105.8. In the previous month, the index had registered a level of 105.4.

The greenback lost ground against a basket of major currencies, after a vote on healthcare legislation was delayed in the US Senate, casting doubt on the ability of the US President, Donald Trump to implement his agenda of tax reform and infrastructure spending.

On the macro front, the US CB consumer confidence index unexpectedly advanced to a level of 118.9 in June, propelled by a buoyant labour market and improved business conditions. The index had registered a revised reading of 117.6 in the previous month, compared to market expectations of a fall to a level of 116.0.

Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its growth forecast for the US economy to 2.1% in 2017, down from 2.3% estimated in April, as promises made by the US President regarding fiscal policy, tax cuts and deregulation look less likely to be implemented. Further, the organisation trimmed growth for next year and warned that the economy would have a hard time achieving the 3.0% growth target set in the President's first budget.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) President, Patrick Harker, London, reaffirmed his stance for raising interest rate one more time this year. However, he warned that Fed may have to rethink on its monetary policy trajectory if inflation continues to abate.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.135, with the EUR trading 0.08% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.1235, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1121. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1410, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1471.

In absence of any crucial economic releases in the Euro-zone today, investors will await the release of the US advance goods trade balance, flash wholesale inventories and pending home sales data, all for May, scheduled to release later in the day.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP rose 0.79% against the USD and closed at 1.2819.

Yesterday, the Bank of England, in its bi-annual Financial Stability Report, warned of possible threats of a 'hard Brexit' on the UK economy and has called British banks to increase their capital requirements to prepare for the uncertain outcome of Brexit talks.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2818, with the GBP trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2736, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2655. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.288, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2943.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to the UK's nationwide house prices data, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.3% against the JPY and closed at 112.21.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 112.10, with the USD trading 0.1% lower against the JPY from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 111.55, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.00. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 112.56, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.02.

Looking ahead, market participants will keep a close watch on Japan’s retail trade and large retailers’ sales, both for May, set to release overnight.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 1.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9600.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9598, with the USD trading slightly lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9549, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.95. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.969, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9782.

Looking ahead, Switzerland's ZEW expectations index for June and UBS consumption indicator data for May, scheduled to release in a few hours, will be on investors' radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.62% against the CAD and closed at 1.3174.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3148, with the USD trading 0.2% lower against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3104, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3061. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3226, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3305.

Ahead in the day, all eyes will be on a speech by the Bank of Canada's Governor, Stephen Poloz. The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Short term EURJPY Elliott Wave view suggests the decline to 122.35 on 6/15 low ended Intermediate wave (X). Rally from there is unfolding as an impulse Elliott Wave structure with extension where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 124.46 and Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 123.62. Minute wave ((iii)) is in progress as 5 waves. After a short term pullback in Minutte wave (iv), another leg higher still can be seen in Minutte wave (v) to finish Minute wave ((iii)). Pair should then pullback in Minute wave ((iv)) before turning higher again. We don’t like selling the pair.

EURJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

The moves seen across Euro pairs overnight have drastically changed the sentiment for the US Dollar, which was already struggling to gain traction despite the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance.

Only yesterday we outlined the potential for the US Dollar index to remain trapped between 96.50 - 97.80 for the foreseeable future, yet Draghi changed that in his speech.

Whilst the timing was off, we are not surprised by the decision for Draghi to turn slightly more hawkish. The economy is ticking along nicely and leading indicators and sentiment continue to have higher hopes for the future. So, if hard data now backs up this view then a weaker US Dollar could be on the cards.

Due to the aggressive bearish bar yesterday, it is difficult not to see this move lower extending. Granted, the low did stall just above 96.30 support but this is more likely to generated a mild rebound at best. Therefore, the next key level in view becomes 95.88, which marks the low printed in the hours leading up to Trump's acceptance speech. The 'abc' pattern highlighted appears to be an expanded flat. As this tend to trick traders into at least two incorrect moves before returning to the higher trend, it also points to further downside. The low which we now label 'b' would have appeared to be a bearish continuation, which promptly turned around after the Fed meeting. Likewise, what is now 'c' likely also caught investors out as part of a bull-trap, only to plummet lower. The psychology of this move is important to understand because it now provides yet more reasons to sell the Dollar, as we have a diverging theme. Buy Europe, Sell US.

To put yesterday's trading range into perspective, we have plotted the historical open to open (OO) prices as a percentage for the past 20 years. The OO range was -1.03% and only marginally smaller than the high to low range of 1.15%. Only 1.51% of the time has the OO range been between -1% to -1.2%, and only 3.9% has it been a more bearish read than 1.03%. What this basically means is that the US Dollar is on the back foot, and it could now provide multiple opportunities to short US crosses. One such one we heighted a couple of times since last week was to short USDCAD, as oil prices were more likely to rebound than extend the already oversized losses.

We finally saw a close beneath the bullish trendline, which also broke the MS2 to the downside. In similar fashion to DXY, the prominent swing has only by emphasised by the bearish follow-through although in this instance the said high also rejected the 200-day average. This latter point makes us suspect we may see more downside potential on USDCAD than say DXY.

A slight reservation for the near-term is its reluctance to extend losses during Asia as it loiters just beneath the MS2 pivot. Whilst pivots can aid as targets or potential S/R when clustered with other technical levels, they tend to generate a lot of noise around them when seen alone. Therefor we would not be too surprised to see a round during either Europe or early US, but we are ultimately seeking a move down to 1.0305 support. Until we see a break of the 1.3349 high, further downside looms.

This also puts CNH back onto our radars as a macro barometer for the US Dollar. After testing the 100% extension then promptly bouncing higher, we had pondered whether the end of an ABC correction had been seen from the 6.9866 high. Yet at current prices CNH would be on track for a bearish outside week which leaves potential for a lower higher. If we see CNH falling hard, chances are it is not restricted to the USD cross.

Key Points:

• After a major stumble, fears of another pronounced decline are on the rise.
• Some mixed technicals offer an interesting forecast for the days ahead.
• The long-term bias is now bearish overall.

The USDCHF was absolutely slammed by the broader swing away from the Greenback yesterday and this has revived the bear's hopes that they can once again be in the driving seat for the pair. Indeed, given a handful of technical readings, it may notactually be an unlikely outcome. However, a few dissenting indicators also suggest that the bears may not have ultimate authority in the coming weeks – even if they should command the Swissy's direction in the long-term.

As shown below, the USDCHF bears had a rather resounding victory yesterday, managing to sink the pair by around 140 pips in a single session. Understandably, this has raised the spectre of the 500 pip decline seen mid-way through last month – sparking concerns that a similar slide could now be on the way. This view is only reinforced by certain technical indicators such as the newly bearish Parabolic SAR and the overwhelmingly bearish EMA bias. Nevertheless, there could be an alternate forecast at hand that may disappoint those looking to capitalise on another rapid plunge for the Swissy.

Specifically, price action actually seems to be forming a rather convincing falling wedge structure, the downside constraint of which appears to be holding firm. Indeed, it looks unlikely that this constraint is going to yield anytime soon which is due, in part, to the stochastics that are now trending into oversold territory. Importantly,if such a pattern is forming, the implication is that – far from another surge lower – we could see a near-term uptrend that may extend all the way back to the 0.9713 handle.

Interestingly, the presence of the wedge neither violates the near-term technical readings signalling that the pair needs to rebound nor the long-term readings suggesting that the USDCHF must remain under pressure. As a result, whilst we may expect to see the pair gradually make its way down to the 0.9531 mark, the bulls may put up a bit more of a fight than they have previously. However, we are also discounting the likelihood of the fledgling double bottom pattern emboldening the bulls too much as the combination of the 100 day EMA's placement and the 38.2% Fibonacci level should prevent a breakout above the potential neckline.

Overall, expect to see the pair to stage a modest recovery over the proceeding weeks and pay particular attention around the 0.97 handle as this could prove to be a near-term cap on upsides. Subsequently, we should see the bears go back on the offensive and begin to send the USDCHF all the way back to around the 0.9531 handle, as per the above-described chart pattern.

It was all about Draghi and the Euro overnight, after he hinted that stimulus may be tweaked to compensate for improvements to the economy.

The current asset buying program runs until the end of the year, so traders now think the ECB's September may include an announcement to taper. Their joy and relief at this prospect can be clearly seen by the dust left behind traders bid the Euro aggressively higher.

EURUSD is now within striking distance of 113 and the US Dollar Index is considering a run for 96, which is where the low of Trump's election speech awaits. It probably didn't help that Fed Chair Yellen announced she didn't expect another financial crisis to occur in 'our lifetimes', as the Fed unfortunately do have a knack of releasing glowing comments about stability before major downturns. This may not turn out to be the case, but the comment certainly didn't reassure Dollar bulls overnight.

Read the full speech by Mario Draghi

• A key issue facing policymakers is ensuring that nascent growth becomes sustainable.
• Dynamic investment that drives stronger productivity growth is crucial for that
• We can be confident that our policy is working and its full effects on inflation will gradually materialise.
• Our policy needs to be persistent,
• We need to be prudent in how we adjust its parameters to improving economic conditions.
• For the monetary transmission process to work, however, stronger growth and employment ought to translate into upward pressure on wages and prices.
• We can be reasonably confident that the forces we see weighing on inflation are temporary
• Our monetary policy measures have been successful in avoiding a deflationary spiral
• Prolonged period of low inflation is always likely to be exacerbated by backward-lookingness in wage and price formation
• As the economy continues to recover, a constant policy stance will become more accommodative
• The central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments to keep it broadly unchanged.
• Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.
• For us to be assured about the return of inflation to our objective, we need persistence in our monetary policy.
• As the economy picks up we will need to be gradual when adjusting our policy parameters

The response from Euro bulls was widespread, which pushed EURUSD above 113 and to its highest levels since August 2016 and EURJPY to its highest level since April 2016. An interesting stat which we saw last December, was the closing direction of January had correctly predicted the direction of the year of 19 out of 20 years. As January closed in the green, it does indeed appear this stat is playing out nicely and that Euro is more likely to be trading higher by the 2017 compared with its open. Yet from here we need to decipher just how much upside is left for the Euro.

The monthly pivot marks a prominent swing low and a bullish channel has had its trajectory revised higher, making EUR an ideal candidate to buy any pullbacks on lower timeframes.

After many years of investors fearing the end of the Euro, the mindset remains for a majority that Euro could be trading lower. Yet when we consider all the battles it has endured without breaking below or even testing parity, this leaves EUR vulnerable to upside from here if data continues to support tightening. The fact that it rallies so hard when only a minor clue is given over the mere potential of a small tightening, also underscores this point that Euro could still be undervalued.

Traders reverted to net long in recent weeks, although the index has reached a level which was last associated with a bearish turnaround. Yet we also note that EURUSD trades at a significant discount to the last time traders were this net long. Furthermore, traders are not really that net long at all, especially when we assess the long and steady advance of gross long positions which have been taken since H1 2015. Therefor we suspect that in all the time Trump fails to implement inflationary policies and European data continues to outperform the US, the path of least resistance is more likely to be higher for the Euro from here.