Sample Category Title

EUR/USD - 1.1185

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1192

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1196

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1190

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1174

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency met resistance at 1.1220 yesterday and has retreated, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and weakness to 1.1160 cannot be ruled out, however, break of indicated support at 1.1139 is needed to signal the rebound from 1.1119 (last week’s low) has ended and bring resumption of recent decline for retest of 1.1119, then towards 1.1095-00.

On the upside, above said resistance at 1.1220 would signal the erratic rise form 1.1119 is still in progress for gain to 1.1228-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1296-1.1119), however, reckon upside would e limited to 1.1260-70 and price should falter well below resistance at 1.1296, bring retreat later. As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside for now. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.72; (P) 142.04; (R1) 142.61; More....

Intraday bias in GPB/JPY remain neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 138.65 will resume the decline from 148.09. But in that case, we'd look for bottoming signal around 135.58, which is close to 135.39 fibonacci level, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 142.75 should confirm completion of the fall from 148.09 and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 148.09 is deeper than expected, we're not bearish in the cross yet. Price action from 148.42 is possibly developing into a sideway pattern with fall from 148.09 as the third leg. Deeper decline could be seen but we're looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Rise from 122.36 is still mildly in favor to resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 135.58/39 will confirm reversal and target a retest on 122.36 low.

USD/JPY - 111.72

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 111.85

Kijun-Sen level                  : 111.69

Ichimoku cloud top             : 111.25

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 111.21

Original strategy  :

Buy at 110.65, Target: 111.65, Stop: 110.30

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 111.00, Target: 112.00, Stop: 110.65

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback resumed recent upmove and rose to 112.08, current retreat suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 111.35-40 cannot be ruled out, however, support at 110.95 should contain downside and bring another upmove later, break of resistance at 112.08-13 would extend further gain to 112.40-45 (50% projection of 108.82-111.79 measuring from 110.95) but price should falter below 112.75-80 (61.8% projection).

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy dollar on pullback as support at 110.95 should contain downside. below 110.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 108.82-111.79 measuring from 10.95) but only break of 110.65 support would confirm top is formed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.60; (P) 124.87; (R1) 125.34; More...

EUR/JPY's rebound from 122.39 extended further to 125.35 but it's still limited below 125.80/126.09 resistance zone. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, decisive break of 125.80/126.09 resistance zone will extend the whole rise from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. On the downside, below 123.65 minor support will extend the consolidation from 125.80 with another falling leg. In that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rebound and then rise resumption.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8771; (P) 0.8789; (R1) 0.8806; More...

EUR/GBP is staying in consolidation pattern from 0.8865 and intraday bias remains neutral first. In case of another fall, contained by 0.8639 support to bring rebound. Further rise is expected and decisive of 0.8851 resistance will pave the way to retest 0.9304 high. However, break of 0.8639 support will now indicate near term topping and bring deeper pull back 0.8529 resistance turned support and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. The leg from 0.9304 should have completed after testing 0.8332 structural support. But it's too early to say that larger rise from 0.6935 is resuming. Rejection from 0.9304 will extend the consolidation with another falling leg. Meanwhile, firm break of 0.9304 will target 0.9799 (2008 high). In case of another decline, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside and bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4714; (P) 1.4758; (R1) 1.4785; More...

EUR/AUD failed to sustain above 4 hour 55 EMA and retreated. As it's staying above 1.4625 temporary low, intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, above 1.4813 will extend the rebound from 1.4625 to retest 1.5226 high next. However, sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 1.3624 to 1.5226 at 1.4614 will bring deep fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.4236 and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 would extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. However, sustained break of 1.4669 support will dampen this bullish view. We'll assess the outlook later after looking at the structure and depth of the pull back.

Asian Equities traded higher on Tuesday approaching near two-year highs on Tuesday as USD strength helped exporters and traders are expecting Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to make positive comments to support the Fed's projection for one more interest rate rise this year. Yellen is due to take part in a discussion on global economic issues at London's Royal Academy today. In addition, several of her Fed colleagues are due to speak later in the day.

U.S. durable goods data, released yesterday, was -1.1% which was worse than expected. As a result, this further adds to concerns about the strength of US economic growth after the recent rout in the oil market and indicators that inflation is not strengthening. Many traders are concerned that the Fed has an overly optimistic view of the economy as it sets its strategy for further interest-rate increases.

Overnight treasury yields dipped lower but USD remained relatively strong with USDJPY trading at 111.65 and briefly rose to a 1 month high of 112.071.

Following ECB President Draghi's defense of the easing in European Central Bank monetary policy EURUSD remained steady at 1.1200 close to an 11-day high set overnight of 1.12036

GBPUSD moved less than 0.1% higher to currently trade at 1.2735. If the current trend continues then GBPUSD will attain a fifth straight daily gain, which would be the longest winning streak since early December.

Oil appears to be on track for a fourth consecutive daily rise even with continued concerns around a persistent global over supply. WTI was trading at $43.65 a 0.2% gain from yesterday but is still likely to suffer a 10% loss for the month. Brent was holding steady trading around $46.25pb.

And finally, Gold – which saw an unprecedented spike in volume at around 9:00 BST yesterday which saw Gold fall 1.6% to $1,236.50 an ounce on Comex. It is strongly believed this was an “erroneous” trade or “fat finger” event where trading jumped to 1.8 million ounces of gold in just a minute! This equates to more than the gold reserves of Finland! Following the short lived dip Gold subsequently recovered trading at $1,251 this morning.

Markets will be paying attention to speeches from ECB President Draghi at 9:00 BST, BoE Governor Carney at 11:00 BST and Fed Chair Yellen at 18:00 BST all of which are likely to cause a certain degree of “knee jerk” reaction in the markets.

EURUSD hit 1.1219, a near two-week high, in yesterday's trading. Nevertheless, it failed a successful close above the 1.12 handle. After briefly rising above 1.12 in today's trading, it remains below this key level.

The RSI indicator has been hovering around neutral levels in previous days but has recently picked up a bit. It is currently above the 50 neutral-perceived level at 55, while it is positively sloped (albeit not steeply), suggesting there's positive short-term momentum for the pair.

On the upside, yesterday's high of 1.1219 could act as a barrier to up movements in price, while the 1.12 level seems to be also offering intra-day resistance. Above these two points, focus would shift to the seven-and-a-half-month high of 1.1295 from June 14, a potential important resistance mark.

Should the price decline, it could find support in the area around the 1.1150 level, a congested region in the recent past that might be of significance. Below this level, the June 20 one-month low of 1.1118 would be eyed as another support point.

Regarding the medium-term picture, it currently looks bullish with the pair recording a bullish (golden) cross in late May when the 50-day moving average (MA) moved above the 200-day one. In addition, the price is currently comfortably above both MAs. It should be noted though that the considerable divergence between the price and the 200-day MA could be a sign of an overextended rally.

Overall, the short-term bias is looking bullish at the moment, while the medium-term prospects are looking even more positive.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0846; (P) 1.0867; (R1) 1.0893; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF is neutral for the moment. While the correction might extend lower, downside should be contained by 1.0791/0872 support zone to bring rebound. Break of 1.0908 resistance will argue that the correction is completed. In such case, intraday bias is turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0986/0999 resistance zone.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Such correction could have completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0791 support holds.

EURUSD

The EURUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The pair has been consolidating between 1.1285 – 1.1118 range area in the last two weeks and we need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction. Overall I still prefer a bullish scenario but need a clear break above 1.1285 to continue the bullish scenario targeting 1.1350 – 1.1425 area. On the downside, 1.1080 area remains a key support and good place to buy with tight stop loss as a clear break below that area would interrupt the bullish scenario testing 1.0900 and the major trend line support as you can see on my H4 chart below.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD was indecisive yesterday. The bias is neutral in nearest term. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.2759 (yesterday’s high). A clear break above that area could trigger further bullish pressure testing 1.2815 which remains a good place to sell with a tight stop loss as a clear break and daily close above that area would expose 1.3000 – 1.3050 region. Immediate support is seen around 1.2705. A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 1.2675 but key support remains at 1.2635 which need to be clearly broken to the downside to continue the double top bearish scenario targeting 1.2500 region. Overall I remain neutral.

USDJPY

The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 111.94 and hit 112.07 earlier today in Asian session. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 113.00 area. Immediate support is seen around 111.60. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 111.15 area but as long as stay above 110.65 price is still in a bullish phase after broke above the trend line resistance as you can see on my H4 chart below. Overall I remain neutral.

USDCHF

The USDCHF had a bullish momentum yesterday topped at 0.9738. The bias is bullish in nearest term testing 0.9765 – 0.9815 area which remains a good place to sell with a tight stop loss. Immediate support is seen around 0.9695. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term testing 0.9650 area. On the upside, a clear break above 0.9815 would end the bearish outlook testing 0.9900 or higher.