Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4816; (P) 1.4856; (R1) 1.4911; More...

The correction from 1.5226 in EUR/AUD is still in progress and might extend to 38.2% retracement of 1.3980 to 1.5226 at 1.4750. But we'd expect strong support from 1.4669 to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 1.5015 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.5226 first. Larger rise from 1.3624 is expected to resume later. Break of 1.5226 will target next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.6587. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4669 support holds. Break of 1.4669 will dampen the bullish view and would at least bring deeper fall back to 55 week EMA (now at 1.4539).

GBP/USD - 1.2788

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2768

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2728

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2709

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2683

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.2845, Target: 1.2745, Stop: 1.2880

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the British pound has surged again after staged a strong rebound yesterday, suggesting further consolidation above last week’s low at 1.2635 would be seen and initial upside risk remains for gain to 1.2805-10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2978-1.2635), however, reckon 1.2845-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold from here, bring retreat later, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2728) would bring weakness to 1.2680-85 but break of latter level is needed to signal the rebound from 1.2635 has ended, then fall to 1.2650 would follow.

In view of this, we are looking to sell cable on recovery as 1.2845-50 should limit upside. Above 1.2870-80 would suggest recent decline has ended at 1.2635 instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.2905-10 and possibly 1.2930 but price should falter well below resistance at 1.2978. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.37; (P) 139.88; (R1) 140.84; More....

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral with the current recovery. But near term outlook stays bearish with 142.75 resistance intact. Fall from 148.09 could still extend lower. In that case, we'd look for bottoming signal around 135.58, which is close to 135.39 fibonacci level, to bring rebound. Break of 142.75, nonetheless, will argue that fall from 148.09 is completed and turn bias back to the upside for this resistance.

In the bigger picture, while the fall from 148.09 is deeper than expected, we're not bearish in the cross yet. Price action from 148.42 is possibly developing into a sideway pattern with fall from 148.09 as the third leg. Deeper decline could be seen but we're looking for strong support from 135.58 and 50% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 135.39 to contain downside. Rise from 122.36 is still mildly in favor to resume at a later stage. However, sustained break of 135.58/39 will confirm reversal and target a retest on 122.36 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.01; (P) 123.38; (R1) 123.74; More...

EUR/JPY continues to gyrate in consolidation from 125.80 and intraday bias stays neutral. Deeper decline cannot be ruled out. But in that case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rise resumption. We're staying mildly bullish in the cross. And, break of 126.09 key resistance will extend the whole rebound from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. Nonetheless, firm break of 121.61 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 119.02.

In the bigger picture, focus is staying on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0845; (P) 1.0853; (R1) 1.0867; More...

No change in EUR/CHF's outlook. The corrective pull back from 1.0986 extend lower. But we'd expect strong support from 1.0791/0872 support zone, probably around 55 day EMA (now at 1.0832) to complete the correction from 1.0986. Break of 1.0902 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0986/0999. Overall, rise from 1.0629 is expected to resume later.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Such correction could have completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0791 support holds.

EUR/USD - 1.1216

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.1216

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.1205

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.1203

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.1199

Original strategy  :

Sold at 1.1230, Target: 1.1130, Stop: 1.1240

Position : - Short at 1.1230

Target :  - 1.1130

Stop : - 1.1240

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 1.1230, Target: 1.1130, Stop: 1.1240

Position : - Short at 1.1230

Target :  - 1.1130

Stop : - 1.1240

The single currency found support at 1.1185 yesterday and has rebounded, suggesting further consolidation would be seen, however, as long as indicated resistance at 1.1232-37 holds, bearishness remains for weakness to 1.1180-85, break there would signal the rebound from 1.1166 has ended, bring retest of this level but below there is needed to extend the fall from 1.1285 top for retracement of early upmove to 1.1145-50 and then towards 1.1120, however, support at 1.1109 should hold from here.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.1230. Only above 1.1265-70 would abort and bring retest of 1.1285, only break there would revive bullishness and confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to previous chart resistance at 1.1300, break there would encourage for headway to 1.1340-45 and later towards chart point at 1.1366.

USD/JPY - 110.10

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 110.04

Kijun-Sen level                  : 110.09

Ichimoku cloud top             : 110.22

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 109.97

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback traded narrowly after meeting resistance at 110.27 yesterday and further sideways trading is in store, although mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 109.63 support, dollar needs to penetrate previous support at 109.38 to signal the rebound from last week’s low of 109.11 has ended at 110.81 and bring retest of this level. A drop below there would confirm recent decline has resumed for further fall to 109.00, then 108.75-80, however, near term oversold condition would limit downside and reckon 108.50 would hold.

If said support at 109.38 continues to hold, then further consolidation would take place and another bounce to 110.35-40 cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 110.60 and price should falter below 110.81. Only break of this resistance would signal the erratic rise from 109.11 low is still in progress for further gain to 111.00 and possibly 111.20-30 but price should falter well below resistance at 111.71, bring retreat later. As near term outlook is mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1189; (P) 1.1206 (R1) 1.1228; More....

EUR/USD continues to gyrate in range below 1.1284 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Focus remains on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0922). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2676; (P) 1.2716; (R1) 1.2791; More...

Recovery from 1.2633 is still in progress and might extend. But still, we'd expect upside to be limited below 1.2977 resistance to bring fall resumption. We continue to favor the case that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 has completed at 1.3047 already. Decisive break of 1.2614 resistance turned support would confirm our bearish view and target a test on 1.1946 low next. However, break of 1.2977 will dampen our view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3047 and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. Price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a consolidation pattern, which could have completed after hitting 55 week EMA. Break of 1.1946 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.5016 to 1.1946 from 1.3047 at 1.1150 next. In case the consolidation from 1.1946 extends, outlook will stay remain bearish as long as 1.3444 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9672; (P) 0.9683; (R1) 0.9697; More.....

USD/CHF is staying in the consolidation pattern from0.9613 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Since 0.9807 resistance remains intact, near term outlook is cautiously bearish for further fall. Break of 0.9613 will extend the whole decline from 1.0342 to 0.9548 support and below. We'd start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9807 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.