Sample Category Title

The EUR/USD has been one of the slowest moving pairs recently. The ATR of 69 for the last 14 days suggests easy going price where investors and traders might possibly waiting for the breakout. Previous bullish SHS pattern (inverted head and shoulders) made the pair spike to 1.1284 where it formed a flat top ascending triangle. By it's standard definition, the triangle s bullish and bulls could go for a triangle breakout if it happens. The breakout of 1.1290 should target 1.1320-30 zone (D H5/W H3) and eventually on a 4h close above 1.1320 the target is 1.1375. Because the EUR/USD is kept in a consolidation mode inside a bullish triangle a break below 1.1225 would possibly negate a bullish scenario.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1250; (P) 1.1267 (R1) 1.1294; More....

EUR/USD lost much moment with 4 hour MACD crossed below signal line, ahead of 1.1298 key resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral. Further rise will remain in favor as long as 1.1109 support holds. Decisive break of 1.1298 will carry larger bullish implication and target 1.1615 resistance next. Nonetheless, we'd stay cautious on rejection from 1.1298. Break of 1.1109 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0888). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

EUR/USD

Current level - 1.1265

The pair is still struggling below 1.1300 major resistance and another dip to 1.1205 minor support is possible, before breaking higher, towards 1.1430 mark. An eventual slide below 1.1205 will challenge 1.1108 low.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 109.54

The downtrend is intact, with a major resistance at 110.20 and the slide is targeting 108.12 low.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2905

Yesterday's minor reversal at 1.2940 signals a negative bias, for a break through 1.2850, towards 1.2770 area. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2868; (P) 1.2909; (R1) 1.2946; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral again with 4 hour MACD dropped below signal line. On the downside. below 1.2768 minor support will extend the fall from 1.3047 to 1.2614 resistance turned support. Decisive break there should confirm completion of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946 and resume the larger down trend through this low. On the upside, break of 1.3047 will extend the correction with another rise towards 1.3444 key resistance.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. The rejection from 55 week EMA is maintaining bearishness in the pair. Also, at this point, as long as 1.3444 resistance holds, fall from 1.7190 is still expected to continue. Break of above mentioned 1.2614 support will affirm this bearish case.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9603; (P) 0.9628; (R1) 0.9643; More.....

USD/CHF lose some downside momentum as it hits 100% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9860 from 1.0099 at 0.9617. But with 0.9669 minor resistance intact, deeper fall is still expected. We'd start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. On the upside, above 0.9669 minor resistance will now indicate short term bottoming. In such in case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 0.9807 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.91; (P) 109.71; (R1) 110.20; More...

USD/JPY's fall is still in progress intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 108.12 low first. Also whole decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction and is still in progress. Break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. We'll look for bottoming signal around 106.48. On the upside, above 110.23 support turned resistance will turn bias neutral first. But near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 111.70 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3430; (P) 1.3458; (R1) 1.3480; More....

USD/CAD falls mildly again today with weak momentum. As it's staying in range above 1.3387, intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Consolidation from 1.3387 could still extend. But in case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.3570 resistance and bring fall resumption. We're holding on to the view that rise from 1.2968 has completed. And the larger rise from 1.2460 could have finished too. Below 1.3387 will target 1.3222 support first. Break of 1.3222 will affirm our bearish view and target 1.2968 key support level for confirmation. However, break of 1.3570 will turn focus back to 1.3793 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. Rise from 1.2460 is seen as the second leg and could have completed at 1.3793, ahead of 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. Break of 1.3222 should indicate the start of the third leg while further break of 1.2968 should confirm. Nonetheless, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

'These data underscore the difficulty in hiring new workers, which we think is increasingly likely to be a factor restraining payroll growth going forward.' — John Ryding, RDQ Economics

Job openings in the United States hit a record high in April and some businesses reported a shortage of qualified workers to fill job openings, pointing to the continued tightening of the labour market. The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Labour Department on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings rose 259K to a seasonally adjusted 6.0M in April, a new all-time high, following the preceding month's downwardly revised reading of 5.79M and surpassing analysts' expectations for 5.65M openings, with the largest increase occurring in accommodation and food services. April's increase was the largest in 12 months and pushed the jobs opening rate to 4.0%, the highest since July 2016, up from March's 3.6%. Nevertheless, the number of hires dropped 253K to 5.1M during the reported month, lowering the hiring rate to 3.5%, the lowest in 12 months, from March's 3.6% and pointing to a massive skills gap in the US labour market. The number of layoffs fell 71K to 1.59M, whereas the number of people quitting their jobs declined 111K to 3.03M.

Weekly




   

•    Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star


   

•    Time of formation: 5 Sep 2016


   

•    Trend bias: Down
 


Daily




   

•    Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer


   

•    Time of formation: 14 Mar 2017


   

•    Trend bias: Near term up


 


 

NZD/USD – 0.6974




As kiwi’s rise from 0.6820 (last month’s low) has gathered momentum after breaking resistance at 0.7090, adding credence to our view that low has been formed at 0.6820, hence consolidation with upside bias remains for this rebound to extend further gain to 0.7243-47 resistance but a daily close above this level is needed to provide confirmation and signal erratic decline from 0.7486 top has ended, bring subsequent rise to 0.7300-10 but price should falter below another previous resistance at 0.7376 due to near term overbought condition.

On the downside, whilst initial pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7106) cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 0.7048) and bring another rise later to aforesaid upside targets. Only a daily close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7012) would abort and suggest top is formed instead, risk weakness to 0.6988 and possibly towards the lower Kumo (now at 0.6952) but downside should be limited to 0.6900 and support at 0.6881 should remain intact. 


Recommendation: Buy at 0.7100 for 0.7300 with stop below 0.7000.

On the weekly chart, kiwi has rallied for the past 4 consecutive weeks after finding decent demand at 0.6818 last month, suggesting low has indeed been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 0.7245-50, then 0.7300, however, break of previous resistance at 0.7376 is needed to retain bullishness and signal the erratic decline from 0.7486 top has ended earlier, bring subsequent headway to 0.7400-10 but price should falter below said recent high, bring retreat later.

On the downside, although pullback to 0.7100-05 is likely, reckon last week’s low at 0.7035 would limit downside and bring another rise later. A weekly close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.7097) is needed to suggest top is possibly formed, risk test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7012) but downside should be limited to 0.6950 and bring another rebound later. Below 0.6915-20 would defer and suggest the rebound from 0.6820 has possibly ended instead, risk further fall to 0.6880 first. but said recent low at 0.6820 should hold on first testing.


'Milk output from New Zealand is expected to lift this season and Fonterra has already made a small upwards revision in the volume of whole milk powder expected to be sold on GDT next season.' — Susan Kilsby, AgriHQ

Dairy product prices rose for the sixth consecutive time at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction on Tuesday. The GDT Price Index climbed 0.6% from the prior auction that took place three weeks ago, with an average selling price of $3,395 per tonne. During the Tuesday auction, 22,0004 tonnes of dairy products were sold, compared to 21,236 tonnes sold at the preceding auction. Nevertheless, the price of whole milk powder dropped 2.9% to $3,143 per tonne. The price of cheddar surged 14.5%, the second highest lift since the commodity started trading on the GDT auction in July 2011, to $4,285 per tonne, whereas prices of skim milk powder jumped 7.9% to $2,156 per tonne. Meanwhile, the price of butter milk powder rose 5.8% to $2,092 per tonne, while prices of rennet casein climbed 4.8% to $6,849 per tonne. The price of butter advanced 3.3% to $5,631 per tonne, whereas lactose prices increased just 1.0% to $971 per tonne. Prices of anhydrous milk fat dropped 1.2% to 6,569 per tonne. Following the release, the Australian Dollar rose against its US counterpart to 71.92.