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The GBP/JPY has made a recovery from the bottom which was supported by M L4 camarilla pivot. At this point the pair is rejected by a trend line coming from May's highs. We might see a rejection from 141.70 if the price doesn;t break the trend line, but if it does watch for 141.95-142.10 POC zone ( 61.8, ATR Pivot, historical sellers). In that case W H3 camarilla / ATR high would be the interim resistance and we might see a rejection to the downside. Targets are 141.00, 140.50 and 140.30. Have in mind that today is Friday so we might see a volatility based on weekly profit taking.

GBP/USD - 1.2718

Original strategy :

Sold at 1.2695, stopped at 1.2710

Position : -  Short at 1.2695

Target :  -

Stop : - 1.2710

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Cable’s intra-day rebound dampened our bearishness and suggests a temporary ow has been formed at 1.2589, hence upside risk remains for this move to bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2755-60, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2780-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2978-1.2589) and price should falter well below resistance at 1.2818, bring another selloff next week.

In view of this, would not chase this move here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below 1.2690-95 would bring weakness towards 1.2640-50 but break of latter level is needed to signal the rebound from 1.2589 has ended, bring retest of this level later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.02; (P) 111.23; (R1) 111.52; More...

USD/JPY is still bounded in the consolidation below 111.78 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. With 110.63 minor support intact, further rise is still expected. Break of 111.78 will target near term channel resistance (now at 112.85). Sustained break there will suggest that whole pull back from 118.65 has completed at 108.12 already. In such case, further rise should be seen to 114.36 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 110.63 will turn bias back to the downside for 108.81 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9705; (P) 0.9723; (R1) 0.9735; More.....

USD/CHF continues to gyrate in range above 0.9613 and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 0.9087 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Break of 0.9613 will extend the whole decline from 1.0342 to 0.9548 support and below. We'd start to look for bottoming signal again as it approaches 0.9443 key support level. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 0.9807 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is still bounded in medium term range of 0.9443/1.0342 for the moment. Consolidative trading would likely continue and medium term outlook remains neutral. Break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the pair. Meanwhile, downside attempts should be contained by 0.9443 key support level. However, sustained break of 0.9443 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.9 handle.

EUR/USD - 1.1180

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.1200, Target: 1.1100, Stop: 1.1235

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.1210, Target: 1.1110, Stop: 1.1245

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The single currency found support just below 1.1140 and has recovered, retaining our view that further consolidation above this week’s low at 1.1119 would be seen and near term upside risk remains for retracement to 1.1207-13 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1296-1.1119 and previous resistance), however, upside should be limited and bring another decline later, below 1.1135-40 would suggest the rebound from 1.1119 has ended, bring retest of this level, below there would confirm recent decline has resumed for further weakness to previous support at 1.1109, then towards 1.1075-80.

In view of this, we are looking to sell euro on recovery as 1.1205-10 should limit upside. Only a firm break above 1.1213 resistance would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.1230-35 but upside should be limited to 1.1260-70, bring another decline later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2660; (P) 1.2675; (R1) 1.2697; More...

While GBP/USD rebounds today, it's staying below 1.2813 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral first. At this point, we're still favoring the bearish case that consolidation pattern from 1.1946 has completed at 1.3047 already. Sustained break of 1.2614 resistance turned support should confirm our bearish view and target a test on 1.1946 low next. However, break of 1.2813 resistance will dampen our view and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3047 and above.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. Price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a consolidation pattern, which could have completed after hitting 55 week EMA. Break of 1.1946 low will target 61.8% projection of 1.5016 to 1.1946 from 1.3047 at 1.1150 next. In case the consolidation from 1.1946 extends, outlook will stay remain bearish as long as 1.3444 resistance holds.

USD/JPY - 111.30

Original strategy  :

Buy at 110.65, Target: 111.65, Stop: 110.30

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 110.65, Target: 111.65, Stop: 110.30

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback found support just below 111.00 level, near term downside risk remains for the erratic fall from this week’s high of 111.79 to bring retracement of recent rise and weakness to 110.90-95 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous support at 110.65 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above 111.45-50 would bring retest of 111.79 but break there is needed to confirm the rise from 108.82 low has resumed and extend headway to 111.90-95 (50% projection of 108.82-111.42-110.65), however, upside should be limited to resistance at 112.13 and 112.25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 114.37-108.82 and 61.8% projection) should hold.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy dollar on pullback as 110.65 support should limit downside. Below 110.30-35 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 108.82-111.79 and previous resistance turned support) would abort and signal a temporary top has been formed instead, risk weakness towards 109.95-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1134; (P) 1.1156 (R1) 1.1172; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's staying in consolidation in range of 1.1109/1295. There is no confirmation of near term reversal yet. And focus remains on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break of 1.1298 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and extend the whole rise from 1.0339 to 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0932). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Canadian Dollar weakens notably in early US session after inflation data missed expectation. Headline CPI slowed to 1.3% yoy in May, down from 1.6% yoy, below consensus of 1.5% yoy. CPI core - common was unchanged at 1.4% yoy, CPI core - median slowed to 1.5% yoy from 1.6% yoy. CPI core - trim slowed to 1.2% yoy from 1.3% yoy. The Loonie has been lifted recently by the hawkish turn of BoC Governor Stephen Poloz. And it tried to resume the rally yesterday after solid retail sales data. Today's tamer than expected inflation reading could now keep USD/CAD in range in near term. The real test will come when BoC announce rate decision again on July 12, when quarterly forecasts will also be released.

Euro recovers mildly against Dollar today but there is no follow through buying seen so far. Eurozone PMI manufacturing rose to 57.3 in June, up from 57.0 and beat expectation of 56.8. But Eurozone PMI services dropped to 54.7, down from 56.3 and missed expectation of 56.1. Germany PMI manufacturing dropped slightly to 59.3, down from 59.3, but beat expectation of 59.0. Germany PMI services dropped to 53.7, down from 55.4, below expectation of 55.4. France PMI manufacturing rose to 55.0, up from 53.8 and beat expectation of 54.0. But France PMI services dropped to 55.3, down from 57.2 and missed expectation of 57.0.

While the set of data is overall disappointing, Markit chief business economist Chris Williamson noted that "at the moment I'm not too worried about it." And "we may be reaching the stage where growth has been strong for quite a few months and we are hitting a few ceilings in terms of degrees to which firms can expand capacity." Also, he noted that there it's not clear what the drop in PMI services is about and he "inclined to treat it just as some payback for the sheer strength of growth in recent months,"

In Japan, PMI manufacturing dropped to 52.0 in June, down from 53.1 and missed expectation of 53.4. Looking at some details, new orders dropped to 51.3, down from 53.4, and hit the lowest level since November. New export orders also dropped to 52.5, down from 53.0. Markit noted that "slower growth was signaled in June, with both orders and output rising at the weakest rates since late last year amid reports of a slight softening in market conditions." Nonetheless, "demand is holding up well, and the sector continues to operate within a solid growth range."

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1134; (P) 1.1156 (R1) 1.1172; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as it's staying in consolidation in range of 1.1109/1295. There is no confirmation of near term reversal yet. And focus remains on 1.1298 key resistance. Decisive break of 1.1298 key resistance will carry larger bullish implication and extend the whole rise from 1.0339 to 1.1615 resistance next. On the downside, firm break of 1.1109 support will indicate short term topping and rejection from 1.1298. In such case, intraday bias will be turned to the downside for 1.0838 support.

In the bigger picture, the case for medium term reversal continues to build up with EUR/USD staying far above 55 week EMA (now at 1.0932). Also, bullish convergence condition is seen in weekly MACD. Focus will now be on 1.1298 key resistance. Rejection from there will maintain medium term bearishness and would extend the whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high). However, firm break of 1.1298 will indicate reversal. In such case, further rally would be seen back to 1.2042 support turned resistance next.

Economic Indicators Update

GBPUSD - The pair continues to face upside pressure but within its established range. Support lies at the 1.2700 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.2650 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2600 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.2550 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.2800 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.2850 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.2900 level followed by the 1.2950 level. On the whole, GBPUSD continues to face upside threats.