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US Session Highlights

(US) APR PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.4%E ; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.4% V 0.4%E

(US) APR PCE CORE M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E ; Y/Y: 1.5% V 1.5%E

(US) APR PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E

(US) MAR S&P / CASE-SHILLER 20-CITY M/M: 0.87% V 0.90%E; Y/Y: 5.89% V 5.61%E; HOUSE PRICE INDEX (HPI): 195.39 V 193.50 PRIOR

(US) MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 117.9 V 119.5E

(US) MAY DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: 17.2 V 15.0E

(US) Dallas Fed Kaplan (moderate; voter): we should begin the process of bringing down the balance sheet soon; base case remains for two more hikes this year

(US) Fed's Brainard (dove, voter): expects to begin shrinking bond portfolio before too long, perhaps this year; soft inflation is a source of concern; Another US rate hike is likely appropriate soon - comments in NY

US investors saw the markets resume amid a swath of US data releases and more tweets from President Trump. The President showed no inclination of calming the rhetoric that escalated between him and Germany's Merkel coming out of the G7 meeting, while the latest economic figures suggest the Fed could still be on a course to raise rates next month. Crude prices remained heavy, having a hard time holding close to $50 in the WTI. The Dollar index has tried to consolidate just above 97, but the stabilization feels tenuous. The Euro is bumping up against 112 as focus has continued to shift towards the June ECB meeting and the cover the next round of staff projections may give officials to begin reshaping expectations. Stocks drifted lower on both sides of the pond, while US Treasury markets outperformed that of European fixed income.

US markets on close: Dow -0.2%, S&P500 -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.1%

Best Sector in S&P500: Telecom

Worst Sector in S&P500: Energy

Biggest gainers: FSLR +7.2%; BWA +3.3%; MU +3.2%

Biggest losers: KMI -4.3%; SWN -3.9%; DVN -3.7%

At the close: VIX 10.4 (+0.6pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.30% (+1bp), 10-yr 2.22% (-3bps), 30-yr 2.89% (-3bps)

US movers afterhours

EXAS: Strength attributed to circulation of notice from UnitedHealth Group indicating it will cover Cologuard effective 7/1; +8.1% afterhours

NX: Reports Q2 $0.11 adj v $0.06e, R$209.1M v $206Me; affirms outlook; +4.9% afterhours

MNK: Reportedly has hired advisers to explore sale of generic drug division; could be worth up to $2B - press; +2.1% afterhours

Politics

(UK) YouGov/Times general election poll: UK Conservative Party would fall short of outright majority by 16 seats

(US) Former National Security Adviser Flynn to provide some documents to the Senate Intelligence Panel – US press

Key economic data

(CN) CHINA MAY MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 51.2 (matches 7-month low; 10th month of expansion) V 51.0E; NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.5 V 54.0 PRIOR

(JP) JAPAN APR PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 4.0% V 4.2%E (rises at the fastest pace since June 2011); Y/Y: 5.7% V 6.1%E

(AU) AUSTRALIA APR PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.4% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 4.9% V 4.9%E

(NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 14.9 (3-month high) V 11.0 PRIOR; ACTIVITY OUTLOOK 38.3 v 37.7 PRIOR

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Asian indices traded mixed following modest declines in US markets, where multi-month low in annualized Core PCE inflation was balanced by commitment to near-term tightening from Fed's Brainard and Kaplan. Probabilities for June rate hike are now around 88%, even as the outlook for a total of 3 hikes this year are still just below 50%. Yield curve is also flatter with a bid in Treasuries on the long end - spread on the 10-2-yr maturities has fallen to lowest level since Oct of last year.

China markets returned from a 2-day holiday and rallied as much as 1% in the morning session before giving it all back heading into the break. Official PMIs, which saw steady declines over the past couple of months, found some footing but still not giving much hope for Q2. April manufacturing PMI beat consensus with 10th straight month of expansion, but also matched a 7-month low. New Export Orders remained steady, but Employment contracted for 2nd straight month and Input Price gauge was at the weakest level in over a year. AUD/USD initially rallied on the results to session highs but then reversed its gains. Also of note in China, the latest Yuan fix was set firmer, and CNY hits its best level in the offshore market since early Feb around 6.803.

In other FX majors, GBP/USD fell abruptly after YouGov/Times general election study showed that based on latest pols, the Conservative Party would fall as many as 16 seats short of outright majority. Recall the April announcement of snap election was predicated on expectation of more broad support as PM May leads UK into Brexit negotiations, but her poor execution during the election season continues to backfire and cloud UK political landscape. Elsewhere, NZD rallied above $0.71 for the first time since early March after the release of ANZ business confidence, and its inflation outlook component for New Zealand was revised higher to 2.0% from 1.8%.

China

(CN) China National Stats Bureau (NBS): PMI shows external and domestic demand keep improving; Expect services sector to keep steady and fast growth

(CN) China may face liquidity issues in June amid higher Fed interest rates and mid-year inspections of banks – China Securities Journal

Japan

(JP) Japan may cut the settlement period for JGBs from May 2018 – Japanese Press

Australia/New Zealand

(NZ) New Zealand RBNZ Semiannual Financial Stability Report: financial system is sound but facing risks

(NZ) RBNZ Gov Wheeler: Very pleased house price inflation has slowed - press

Korea

(KR) South Korea to try and approve extra budget in June - Korean press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, ASX200 +0.3%, Kospi +0.1%

Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq +0.1%, Dax flat, FTSE100 +0.1%

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.1170-1.1195; JPY 110.75-111.20; AUD 0.7445-0.7475; NZD 0.7080-0.7115

June Gold -0.2% at 1,260/oz; July Crude Oil -0.6% at $49.37/brl; July Copper +0.1% at $2.57/lb

(CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8633 V 6.8698 PRIOR; Strongest Yuan fix since May 18th

(CN) PBOC to inject combined CNY210B v CNY40B prior

(HK) Overnight CNY HIBOR 21.0793% (highest level since Jan 6th)

(AU) Australia sells A$800M in 2.25% 2028 bonds; avg yield 2.4978%; bid-to-cover 2.83x

Asia equities notable movers

Australia

Shaver Shop (SSG) +2.3%; Guides FY17

Japan

NTT Docomo (9437) -1.1%; Cut at Goldman

Toshiba (6502) -4.0%; Working with auditor to file full earnings report by June 30th deadline; Also: signs agreement to split off three core businesses on July 1st - press

Hong Kong

Lenovo (992) +5.8%; CEO Yang denies press speculation that the company will go private

Yue Yuen (551) +0.5%; To continue to expand its capacity, product development and research

CRRC (1766) -0.8%; In final stage talks to acquire Skoda Transportation for CZK30B

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.56; (P) 110.93; (R1) 111.22; More...

At this point, intraday bias in USD/JPY remains mildly on the downside for 110.23. Break will resume the fall from 114.36 to 108.12 and below. Note again that decline from 118.65 is seen as a correction. In that bearish case, we'll look for bottoming signal again at 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. On the upside, above 111.46 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. It's uncertain whether it's completed yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Overall, rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

Key Points:

• PBOC changes the fixing process for the Renminbi.
• Move has stabilised the Renminbi and may lead to appreciation.
• USDCNY has fallen to the lowest level since early 2017.

In a move that is likely to please the Trump administration, the Chinese government has taken action to revalue the Renminbi and subsequently sent the USDCNY pair tumbling. Last week saw the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) adding some additional factors into the model which determines the Yuan’s daily fixing rate with the ultimately aim of further stabilising the currency. This is likely to be seen as a welcome move from the central bank given the sharp selloff in the Yuan over the past year.

However, there are some negatives to the move with many market participants criticizing the lack of a free market driven valuation and suggesting that the latest move simply again pushes towards full government control. Subsequently, although the fixing alteration certainly takes immediate moves to stabilise the currency it does so in an artificial way, especially for a currency which has recently been added to the reserve basket of currencies.

The reality is that the changing of the fixing factors is largely strategic with the currently depressed value of the greenback providing a unique opportunity to add a “cushion” for when the USD roars again. In addition, the domestic slowdown in China has largely meant that currency outflows have reduced significantly and might help to increase expectations around an appreciation in the value of the Yuan. Subsequently, the timing shouldn’t really be of surprise to anyone given that the depressed state of the greenback provided the central bank with a very unique window of opportunity.

Ultimately, the move is likely to further relive the PBOC of the pressures of capital outflows and might help to actually reduce the political pressure on the nation to not be seen as a “currency manipulator”. However, this comes at the risk of the Renminbi being seen as government controlled rather than market driven which is a strange situation for a reserve currency to be in. Regardless, the move is likely to stabilise the Yuan in the medium term and we might actually see some appreciation over the coming month.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.84; (P) 142.46; (R1) 143.12; More....

GBP/JPY is losing some downside momentum as seen in 4 hour MACD. But intraday bias stays on the downside with 143.36 minor resistance intact. Fall from 148.09 is expected to extend to 61.8% retracement of 135.58 to 148.09 at 140.35. At this point, we'd still expect rebound from 122.36 to resume later. Hence, we'd look for strong support below 140.35 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 143.36 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside. However, sustained trading below 140.35 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus back to 135.58 key near term support instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 122.36 medium term bottom is still expected to extend to of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. And decisive break there could pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 167.78. However, as the cross is starting to lose upside momentum, rejection below 150.42 and break of 135.58 support will indicate reversal and bring deeper fall back to retest 122.36 instead.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.28; (P) 123.84; (R1) 124.52; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook as consolidation from 125.80 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. In case of another fall, we'd expect downside to be contained by by 38.2% retracement of 114.84 to 125.80 at 121.61 to bring rise resumption. We're staying mildly bullish in the cross. And, break of 126.09 key resistance will extend the whole rebound from 109.03 to 100% projection of 109.03 to 124.08 from 114.84 at 129.89. Nonetheless, firm break of 121.61 will dampen our bullish view and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 119.02.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 126.09 support turned resistance. Decisive break there will confirm completion of the down trend from 149.76. And in such case, rise from 109.20 is at the same degree and should target 141.04 resistance and above. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09 and break of 114.84 will extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

Key Points:

• The technical bias is rather bullish despite recent setbacks.
• A reversal could see the pair back up above the 1.30 handle.
• Fundamentals still proving to be a drag on the Cable's performance.

The Cable had been making steady progress over recent weeks but a near-term slide is beginning to suggest we may unceremoniously sink back below the 1.2772 handle. Indeed, given May's weakening grasp on the UK elections and the fallout from the Manchester attack, it seems more than reasonable to suggest a grim outlook for the pair. However, contrary to this seemingly reasonable forecast, the technical bias suggests we may have something altogether different instore.

As is made apparent in the below chart, the Cable has been laying the groundwork for an Elliot wave that could see it well and truly back above the 1.30 handle. Of course, this is largely contingent on the current level of support around the 1.2772 mark remaining intact and this is not exactly a given. Nevertheless, there is a relatively robust argument to be made that we will see support hold as we can see that this price coincides with both the 38.2% Fibonacci level and a historical reversal point. Moreover, stochastics are flirting with becoming oversold which will be helping to cap downsides.

If we do indeed see support remain in place, the subsequent reversal could be the start of an advance that might take the pair back above the 1.30 handle. Such an uptrend would be in line with our current EMA bias which, as is shown above, is highly bullish despite the recent spate of losses. Furthermore, the recent foray to the downside has pushed the Cable back to its lower Bollinger band which would typically indicate that buying pressure is about to return.

Whilst the technicals have a fairly clear bias, the fundamentals remain decidedly more opaque. Setting aside individual economic news items, the spectre of Brexit continues to hang over the UK and generates significant headwinds with which the GBP must contend. In addition, any of the bullishness inspired by early beliefs that Theresa May would lead the Tories to a landslide victory – and thereby strengthen her hand in negotiating Brexit – could evaporate as the latest polls are suggesting that her lead is narrowing.

Ultimately, despite this fundamental bias, the outlook is still more positive than it has been previously. This reflects the end of the ‘Trump Bump' for the Greenback and, more recently, the improving technical forecast which is laid out above. As a result, the bulls may finally be back in business as we move ahead which should lead to an interesting few weeks for the pair.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0883; (P) 1.0898; (R1) 1.0916; More...

The consolidation pattern from 1.0986 is still extending and intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral at this point. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.0791/0872 support zone to bring rise resumption. As noted before, the consolidative pattern from 1.1198 should be completed. Firm break of 1.0999 resistance will pave the way for a retest on 1.1198 high.

In the bigger picture, the price actions from 1.1198 are seen as a corrective move. Current strong rebound is raising the chance that it's completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653. Decisive break of 1.0999 resistance will target a test on 1.1198 high. For now, this will be the preferred case as long as 1.0791 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4933; (P) 1.4976; (R1) 1.5024; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 1.4934 minor support will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, after hitting 1.5094 key resistance. In that case, deeper pull back would be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 1.4570). Meanwhile, sustained break of 1.5094 resistance will extend the rally from 1.3624 to next medium term fibonacci level at 1.5455.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction should be completed at 1.3624 after defending 1.3671 key support. Rise from 1.3642 is now expected to target 61.8% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.5455 and above. In any case, outlook will now stay cautiously bullish as long as 1.4309 resistance turned support holds.

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

We typically search for lower-timeframe confirmation between the M15 and H1 timeframes, since most of our higher-timeframe areas begin with the H4. Stops are usually placed 1-3 pips beyond confirming structures.

EUR/USD

Leaving the 1.11 handle unchallenged, the shared currency shifted northbound yesterday. The H4 mid-level resistance at 1.1150 was easily cleared, allowing price to shake hands with the 1.12 barrier going into the early hours of the US segment, which for now is holding as resistance. What's also notable from a technical perspective is the potential H4 bullish pennant (1.1075/1.1268) that's forming on top of a daily support at 1.1142. What's concerning though is that this H4 bullish formation is also actually taking shape beneath a formidable weekly supply area coming in at 1.1533-1.1278!

Our suggestions: Basically, we're looking for price to continue compressing within the current H4 pennant and then break out to the upside. Should this occur, as per the black arrows, we'd be looking to trade long from from 1.1150, and target 1.12 as an initial take-profit zone. We plan on holding the remainder of the position for a potential run up to 1.1253 (underside of daily supply) and then the underside of weekly supply at 1.1278.

Data points to consider: German Retail sales at 7am, EUR CPI figures at 10am. FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watching for price to compress within the current H4 pennant and break out north for a possible retest of 1.1150.
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GBP/USD

After failing to sustain gains beyond the H4 mid-level resistance at 1.2850 yesterday, the pair, in recent hours, brought the unit back down to the 1.28 handle. With this psychological barrier likely worn out, we still have our eye on the H4 Quasimodo support level seen plotted below at 1.2769.

The stops taken from 1.28 would likely provide enough liquidity for the big boys to begin buying this market at 1.2769. What's more, let's remember that we are also trading from a weekly support at 1.2789! Therefore, there is a good chance price will bounce from 1.2769 and at least reach 1.28.

Our suggestions: Based on the above points, our desk believes the aforementioned H4 Quasimodo support level is stable enough to consider a buy trade from, with a stop-loss order placed below the pattern's apex at 1.2748. However, be sure to reduce risk to breakeven once price tests 1.28 as we do expect the bears to put up a fight here.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.2769 region ([possible market order] stop loss: 1.2748).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

AUD/USD

Trade update: stopped for breakeven at 0.7440).

The Aussie closed in positive territory yesterday, as the US dollar drove lower. This consequently formed a nice-looking daily engulfing candle that smothered both Friday and Monday's action. Over on the H4 timeframe, we saw the demand marked with a green arrow around 0.7420 hold price and send the pair back above the H4 mid-level resistance coming in at 0.7450. To the upside, we now see May's opening level lurking nearby at 0.7481, followed closely by the 0.75 handle.

Despite daily price printing a bullish engulfing candle, which to some is considered a buy signal, it might be worth taking note that weekly price remains trading from a resistance area planted at 0.7524-0.7446. So, with that in mind, where do we go from here?

Our suggestions: Personally, we are going to sidestep any long setups we come across today. Buying when we know weekly price is trading from supply is just too risky for our liking. Also, as much as we love monthly opening levels, we will not be trading short from May's level. Instead, we have our eye on the 0.7512/0.75 area, which comprises of a H4 resistance at 0.7512, a H4 trendline resistance etched from the high 0.7610 and the round number 0.75 (shaded in red). While this sell zone is planted nicely within the limits of the current weekly supply, there's still a chance that daily price could force the H4 candles to fake north to touch base with the underside of daily supply at 0.7523. Therefore, waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle to form, preferably a full-bodied candle, before pulling the trigger is advised.

Data points to consider: Chinese manufacturing data at 2am. FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.7512/0.75 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form – preferably a full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

USD/JPY

Alongside US equities, the USD/JPY punched lower yesterday. The move, as you can see, punctured the H4 channel support taken from the low 110.23 (ties in nicely with the 111 handle), and clocked a low of 110.66. With this in view, our desk is watching for H4 price to retest the 111 boundary as resistance for a possible short. Why here, and where would we target?

Why we're looking for shorts is simply because weekly bears remain in a relatively strong position after pushing aggressively lower from supply registered at 115.50-113.85. We know there's a lot of ground to cover here, but this move could possibly result in further downside taking shape in the form of a weekly AB=CD correction (see black arrows) that terminates within a weekly support area marked at 105.19-107.54 (stretches all the way back to early 2014). Furthermore, daily price continues to defend the resistance area penciled in at 111.35-112.37. The next area on the hit list from here falls in at 107.15-107.90: a support zone that's glued to the top edge of the said weekly support area.

In regards to possible take-profit targets, the initial level of interest stands at 110.50. But, as we already know from the higher-timeframe structures, H4 price could very well drive much lower than this!

Our suggestions: Following a retest of 111, we'd also like to see bearish intent in the form a lower-timeframe confirming sell signal (see the top of this report).

Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 111 region ([waiting for a lower-timeframe signal to form following the retest is advised] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this level).

USD/CAD

Kicking this report off with a look at the weekly chart, we can see that price remains trading around the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434. Directly below sits a demand base coming in at 1.3223-1.3395, which was tested during last week's session. Down on the daily chart, the unit continues to linger around support seen at 1.3450. To the upside, we have a resistance area planted at 1.3598-1.3559, and below there's a support line at 1.3272 which happens to intersect with two trendline supports (1.2968/1.3027).

Bouncing over to the H4 chart, we see the following:

To the upside, there's a potential H4 AB=CD bearish pattern (taken from the low 1.3387) taking shape that terminates just ahead of a H4 broken Quasimodo line drawn from 1.3542/H4 mid-level resistance at 1.3550 and a daily resistance area at 1.3598-1.3559. The small (red) area marks a possible zone where price could bounce.

To the downside, we also see a potential H4 AB=CD 161.8% Fib ext. at 1.3292 taken from the high 1.3540. This number helps form a strong-looking (green) buy zone. 1.3272/1.3312: holds the following structures:

Daily support at 1.3272.

1.33 handle.

March/April's opening levels at 1.3310/1.3312.

Daily trendline support confluence (1.2968/1.3027).

Also of note is the H4 buy zone is seen lodged within the lower limits of the weekly demand at 1.3223-1.3395!

Our suggestions: As you can see, both zones hold a reasonable amount of confluence and have the potential to reverse price. To be on the safe side, however, we would recommend not entering blindly at these areas. Wait for additional confirmation in the form a reasonably sized H4 rotation candle, preferably a full-bodied candle, before committing to a trade.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm. Canadian growth data at 1.30pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.3272/1.3312 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form – preferably a full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's tail).
• Sells: 1.3550/1.3542 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bear candle to form – preferably a full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's wick).

USD/CHF

As can be seen from the H4 candles this morning, the 0.98 handle elbowed its way into the spotlight yesterday and held steady as a resistance. With price fading from this number, we saw the unit enter back within the limits of a H4 range fixed between 0.9774/0.97. This consolidation is interesting due to it forming just ahead of a daily Quasimodo support level at 0.9678. What's also notable is the fact that this daily barrier is positioned just ahead of a weekly Quasimodo support pegged at 0.9639.

Over on the bigger picture, we see very little structure stopping daily price from reaching the said Quasimodo level. With that in mind, we feel that the Swissy will eventually punch below the current H4 range and challenge this daily base line.

Our suggestions: A fakeout through 0.97 that connects with the aforementioned daily Quasimodo support is a valid long, in our opinion. The reason being is there are likely a truckload of sell stops lingering just below 0.97. These stops, when filled, become sell orders, and thus give the big boys liquidity to buy into from the daily Quasimodo! So, with that in mind, should price whipsaw through 0.97, test 0.9678, and close back above 0.97, we will look to enter long, targeting the top edge of the H4 range at 0.9774.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 0.97 region ([wait for price to fakeout beyond the 0.97 handle – touch 0.9678 – and then close back above 0.97, before looking to commit to a position] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

DOW 30

US equities took a hit yesterday and even marginally breached the lower edge of a H4 support area coming in at 21048-21015. This recent down move has also brought the unit down to the top edge of a daily support area drawn from 21022-20933, which should, technically speaking, hold price higher.

Despite yesterday's bearish move, our team remains biased to the upside since we are trading around record highs at the moment. However, entering long from the current H4 support zone is not something our team would feel comfortable with knowing that there's a nearby H4 supply lurking just above at 21139-21101.

Our suggestions: Waiting for the H4 supply mentioned above at 21139-21101 to be taken out is likely the safer route, before considering hunting for longs. Therefore, until we see a decisive close above this area, our desk will remain patiently waiting on the sidelines.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 1pm, US pending home sales at 3pm GMT+1.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Watching for H4 price to close above H4 supply at 21139-21101 before looking to long this market.
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

In recent sessions, the price of gold retreated and clocked a fresh low of 1259.2. The move began after H4 price chalked in a bearish selling wick that pierced 1270.5/1268.6 (May's opening level and a H4 AB=CD 127.2% Fib ext. [taken from the low 1245.9]). As we write, the yellow metal looks poised to extend these losses and shake hands with demand registered at 1252.9-1256.5.

Over on the bigger picture, daily supply at 1271.0-1261.7 remains in a firm position, and could very well be the catalyst that forces H4 price down to the said demand. Up on the weekly chart, however, bullion is seen lurking between demand marked at 1194.8-1229.1 and two weekly Fibonacci extensions 161.8/127.2% at 1313.7/1285.2 taken from the low 1188.1 (green zone).

Our suggestions: Entering long from the current H4 demand is tempting, since weekly price shows little stopping further upside taking shape. However, you would have to contend with the possibility of going up against daily sellers from the aforementioned supply! And, in addition to this, there's also a chance that H4 price may look to ignore the demand altogether and head down to March/April's opening levels at 1245.9/1248.0.

We're not against buying from the H4 demand, but we are wary. With that being the case, we will assess how H4 price behaves once/if gold challenges this zone. Should a H4 bull candle present itself, preferably in the form of a full-bodied candle, we would, dependent on the time of day, consider a long from here, targeting the 1268.0 neighborhood.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1252.9-1256.5 ([waiting for a reasonably sized H4 bull candle to form – preferably a full-bodied candle – is advised] stop loss: ideally beyond the candle's tail).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

Currency pair GBP/USD

The British Pound weakened last week ahead of the UK elections which will take place on Thursday 8 June 2017. Some opinion polls are showing a shrinking lead for the current Prime Minister Theresa May of the Conservative party and a rebound for the Labour opposition party but a full week of campaigning still remains in front of the UK.

The GBP/USD channel (green lines) is a bear flag chart pattern and a potential bearish break could see price continue with wave 3 (blue). A bullish break above the channel, however, could change the wave structure.

The GBP/USD completed an ABC (grey) correction at the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone of wave 4 (orange).

Currency pair EUR/USD

The EUR/USD made a deep retracement back to the resistance trend line (red), which is a key bounce or break spot. A bearish bounce could confirm the current wave structure whereas a bullish break invalidates it.

The EUR/USD stopped at the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level and has reached a major bounce or break spot.

Currency pair USD/JPY

The USD/JPY could have completed a truncated 5th wave (orange), which means that wave 5 does not break the bottom (or top) of wave 3 (orange).

The USD/JPY seems to have completed 5 internal waves twice (grey/purple) within wave 5 (orange). A bullish break above resistance (orange) could confirm the current wave structure whereas a break below support (green) invalidates it.