Sample Category Title

GBP/JPY - 139.85

Recent wave: Medium term low formed at 120.50 and (A)-(B)-(C) major correction has commenced with (A) leg ended at 148.45, hence wave (B) is unfolding for retreat to 131.00-10.

Trend: Near term up

Original strategy:

Bought at 139.10, Target: 141.10, Stop: 138.50

Position: - Long at 139.10
Target: - 141.10
Stop: - 138.50

New strategy :

Hold long entered at 139.10, Target: 141.10, Stop: 138.50

Position: - Long at 139.10
Target:  - 141.10
Stop:- 138.90

Sterling found good support at 138.95 and has staged a strong rebound, current firmness adds credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 135.60, hence consolidation with mild upside bias remains for this rise from there to bring retracement of recent decline to 140.40-50, then 140.75, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 141.10-15 and price should falter well below resistance at 141.75.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.



On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 139.50 and reckon 139.00-10 would hold, bring another rise later. Below said support at 138.95 would defer and risk correction to 138.30-35, break there would abort and suggest top is formed instead, bring further fall to 138.00 but downside should be limited to 137.70-75 and price should stay well above 137.00-10, bring another rise later. 

GOLD Short-term exhaustion in buying interest.

Gold has faded near the hourly resistance at 1295 (18/04/2017 high), suggesting a pickup in selling pressures. Support can be located 1272 (08/04/2017 low). Another hourly support lies at 1270 (rising trendline). An hourly resistance can now be found at 1295 (range high).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

SILVER (in USD) Challenging rising trendline.

Silver has further declined and is now challenging the strong support at 18.16 (rising trendline). Strong resistance is given at a distance at 19.00 (09/11/2017 high). Key support is given at 17.74 (10/04/2017 low) then 16.82 (15/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

CRUDE OIL Pushing lower.

Crude oil has declined sharply, breaking the support at 50.71. Support now lies at 49.61(08/12/2017 low). Resistance for a shortterm bounce can be found at 50.71 (old support) and 53.70 (12/04/2017 high).

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/JPY Strong recovery bounce continues.

EUR/JPY has breached trendline resistance at 116.75. Key resistance stands at 117.43 then 122.88 (13/03/0217 high). Major support is given at 114.90 (18/04/2017low).

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP The key support at 0.8304 has held thus far.

EUR/GBP remains weak but has thus far successfully challenged its key support at 0.8304. Resistances for a temporary rebound are given by 0.8388 (intraday high) and 0.8512 (18/04/2017 reaction high). The short-term technical structure is negative as long as the resistance at 0.8596 holds. Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

EUR/CHF Breaching the resistance at 1.0693

EUR/CHF is in an uptrend as long as the support at 1.0693 (19/04/2017 low and declining trendline) holds. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Key resistance is given by 1.0720.Expected to see further decline.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/CAD – 1.4523


EUR/CAD: Wave 4 ended at 1.4380 and wave 5 as well as circle wave C has possibly ended at 1.2129, major (A)-(B)-(C) correction has commenced and indicated target at 1.6000 had been met.



Although the single currency fell to as low as 1.4053 earlier this month, as euro found decent demand there and has staged a strong rebound, suggesting the retreat from 1.4600 has ended at 1.4053 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of said resistance at 1.4600, a break there would add credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.3784 back in February and bullishness remains for this erratic rise to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.4710 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5282-1.3784) and later towards 1.4800.

Our latest preferred count is that larger degree wave [C] from 1.3289 as well as circle wave B ended at 1.7509 in Dec 2008 with (A): 1.6325, (B): 1.4719 followed by wave (C) at 1.7509, hence circle wave C is unfolding with wave 1 ended at 1.5186 (diagonal wave 1), wave 2 at 1.6096, impulsive wave 3 has ended at 1.2451, followed by wave 4 at 1.4380, in view of recent strong rebound, we are now treating the wave 5 as well as larger degree circle wave C has ended at 1.2129, hence (A)-(B)-(C) correction has commenced from there with impulsive wave (C) now unfolding and indicated initial upside target at 1.6000 had been met and reckon 1.6500 would hold.



On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.4450-60 is likely, reckon 1.4390-00 would limit downside and bring another rise to aforesaid upside targets. Below 1.4350-55 would defer and risk weakness to 1.4300 but reckon downside would be limited to 1.4250 and 1.4170-75 should remain intact, bring another rebound later.

Recommendation: Buy at 1.4400 for 1.4600 with stop below 1.4300.

 
On the bigger picture, our long-term count on the monthly chart is that a big sideways consolidation from 2000 low of 1.2557 has possibly ended at 1.7509 as circle wave B with [A]: 1.6976 ( (A): 1.4513, (B): 1.2612, (C): 1.6976), wave [B]: 1.3289 is a double three with 1st a-b-c: 1.5384, x: 1.6709 and 2nd a-b-c: 1.3289. As indicated above, the wave [C] has ended at 1.7509. The selloff from there is now unfolding which itself should be labeled as an impulsive wave with wave 1: 1.5186 (diagonal wave 1), followed by wave 2: 1.6096 and wave 3: 1.2451, wave 4: 1.4380, wave 5 as well as larger degree circle wave C has possibly ended at 1.2129 and major correction has possibly commenced for retracement of recent decline towards 1.4000, then 1.4180-90 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.7509-1.2129). Below said support at 1.2129 would risk weakness to psychological support at 1.2000 and then 1.1851 (50% projection of 1.7509-1.2451 measuring from 1.4380) but reckon 1.1500 would remain intact, bring reversal later.

USD/CHF Challenging its support at 0.9955.

USD/CHF failed to breach 1.0107 dropping sharply to support. The short-term technical structure is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.0171 (07/03/2017). Monitor hourly support is given at 0.9955 (30/03/2017 base low) then 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD The resistance at 1.3456 has been broken.

USD/CAD is moving sharply higher from hourly support at 1.3265 confirming an underlying bullish trend. Resistances can now be found 1.3535 (09/03/2017 high). Hourly support can be located at 1.3456 (04/04/2017 high) then 1.3353 (20/01/2017 high).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Weak bounce thus far.

AUD/USD is trying to bounce off strong support at 0.7494. However, as long as prices remain below the resistance at 0.7608 (17/04/2017 high), the short-term technical structure is negative. Key resistance stands at 0.7681 (30/03/2017 high).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

AUD/USD     –  0.7519




AUD/USD – Wave 5 of C and (B) has possibly ended at 1.1081




Although aussie rebounded last week, renewed selling interest emerged at 0.7611 and the pair has retreated, suggesting the rebound from 0.7473 has ended there and bearishness remains for another test of said support, break there would extend the fall demo 0.7750 top for at least a strong correction of the rise from 0.7158 (Dec 2016 low), initial downside target is seen at 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750), then towards 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7300-10 and reckon 0.7280-85 would hold from here, bring rebound later. 


We are keeping our count that top has been formed at 1.1081 (wave 5 of V) and major correction (A-B-C-X-A-B-C) has commenced, indicated downside targets at 0.7945 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of entire rise from 0.6007-1.1081) and 0.7750 had been met and downside bias is seen for further weakness to 0.6800, then 0.6700 but reckon 0.6500 would hold from here.



Our preferred count is that the rally from 0.6007 to 0.7270 (7 Jan 2009) is marked as wave A, the retreat to 0.6248 (2 Feb 2009) is wave B and the subsequent upmove is labeled as wave C with wave (iii) and wave (iv) ended at 0.8265 and 0.7700 respectively and wave (v) as well as 3 ended at 0.9407, then wave 4 ended at 0.8066 (instead of 0.8578). The wave 5 has met our indicated projection target of 1.1060 and could ended at 1.1081, this level is now treated as the peak of wave (C) as well as larger degree wave B, hence major fall in wave C has commenced, our initial downside target at psychological support at 0.7000 has just been met and further weakness to 0.6500 would be seen later.



On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 0.7560-65 cannot be ruled out, reckon 0.7590-00 would cap upside and bring another decline later to aforesaid downside retracement targets. A daily close above said resistance at 0.7611 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 0.7640-45 but only break of resistance at 0.7680 would abort and suggest the fall from 0.7750 has ended instead, 



Recommendation: Hold short entered at 0.7570 for 0.7390 with stop below 0.7620



Our alternate count on the daily chart treated the top formed in 2008 at 0.9851 could be a larger degree wave I and was followed by a deep and sharp correction in wave II to 0.6007 and wave III is unfolding from there.

The long-term uptrend started from 0.4775 (2 Apr 2001) with an impulsive structure. Wave I is labeled as 0.4775 to 0.9851 (15 Jul 2008), wave II has ended at 0.6007 (Oct 2008) and wave III is still in progress which may extend further gain to 1.1265.

EUR/USD Finding new demand.

EUR/USD has further improved as seen by the break of the resistances area given by 1.0679. Hourly support can be found at 1.0703 (intraday base) then 1.0570 (11.04.2017 low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0494 (22/02/2017 low). A key resistance stands at 1.0874.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Minor pullback.

GBP/USD has pause after sharp bullish rally. Resistance stands at 1.2953. Monitor the hourly support at 1.2773 (intraday base) as a break would confirm a weakening short-term bullish momentum. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2905 (18/04/2017 reaction high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Sideways.

USD/JPY has recently moved sideways. Next support can be located at 108.22 (17/04/2017 low). Other key supports lie at a distant 106.04 (11/11/2016 low). Hourly resistance stands at 109.10 (18/04/2017 high). Other resistance can be found at 110.11, while a key resistance stands at 112.20 (31/03/2017 high).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

EUR/JPY - 117.43

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy:

Sell at 118.00, Target: 116.00, Stop: 118.60

O.C.O.

Buy at 115.80, Target: 117.80, Stop: 115.20

Position: -
Target: -
Stop: -

New strategy :

Sell at 118.40, Target: 116.40, Stop: 119.00

O.C.O.

Buy at 115.80, Target: 117.80, Stop: 115.20

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

As the single currency has continued moving higher after staging a strong rebound from 114.85, adding credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed there and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for further gain to 117.80, then 118.00-10, however, reckon upside would be limited to 118.40-50 and bring retreat later, below 116.25-30 would bring weakness to 115.75-80 but reckon 115.40-50 would hold, bring another rebound later.

In view of this, whilst we are looking to turn long on dips, we would also sell euro on subsequent rebound towards 118.40-50. Only below said support at 114.85 would signal recent entire fall from 124.10 top is still in progress and downside risk remains for further weakness to 114.40-50, then towards 114.00-10, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below latter level and risk from there is seen for a much-needed rebound to take place later.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i - 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii - 97.03, wave iv - 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

Overnight, New Zealand's CPI rate for Q1 surged to +2.2% yoy from +1.3% in Q4. This was the first time in 5 years inflation propped above the midpoint of the RBNZ's inflation target range of 1-3%. Although StatsNZ noted that inflation was lifted by rising petrol prices and the annual rise in cigarette and tobacco tax, excluding those, the CPI rate stands at +1.5 yoy which is still within the Bank's target band.

At its latest gathering, the Bank kept the door open for further easing, and noted that it expects inflation to return to the midpoint over the “medium-term”. As such, we think that today's acceleration above that midpoint diminishes significantly the likelihood for any further rate cuts by the Bank, at least at the upcoming gatherings. This view is amplified by the fact that the nation's 2-year inflation expectations have been in a positive trend recently and they are now almost in line with the Bank's midpoint as well.

NZD/USD was waiting for the data near the 0.7000 (S1) key support and spiked higher as soon as the numbers were out. The price structure on the 4-hour chart suggests that the short-term outlook of the pair is somewhat positive. On the 13th of April, the rate emerged above the downtrend line taken from the 7th of February and since then, it's been printing higher peaks and higher troughs. A break above the 0.7050 (R1) hurdle is possible to initially aim for the next resistance of 0.7075 (R2), where another break is possible to target the 0.7110 (R3) barrier.

Oil falls to a two-week low on bearish inventory data

WTI tumbled on Wednesday, after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories fell less than expected, while gasoline inventories built up instead of dropping as forecasted. The glut in US inventories comes just a day after the EIA monthly Drilling Productivity report showed that US shale production in May is set for its biggest monthly increase in more than two years.

All these confirm our long-standing view that continued gains in oil prices invite US shale producers back to the market, which in turn increases supply and thereby keeps any potential gains limited.

WTI tumbled on the US inventories report falling back below the key support (now turned into resistance) zone of 51.50 (R1). The plunge was stopped by the 50.50 (S1) level and then, the price rebounded somewhat. Even if that recovery continues for a while, the price structure on the 4-hour chart suggests a short-term downtrend. As such, we would treat any further rebound as a corrective move. We would expect the bears to take the reins again soon and aim for another test near 50.50 (S1). A dip below that line could challenge the round figure of 50.00 (S2).

Now the focus turns to the OPEC and non-OPEC meeting in Vienna on the 25th of May. A number of key producers, including Saudi Arabia, support extending the November production cut agreement into the second half of 2017, if all participating members agree.

Today:

The European day starts with Germany's PPI data for March. The PPI rate is expected to have ticked up, but in any case, PPI data are usually not a major market mover. Investors prefer to focus on the CPI instead of the PPI inflation measure. Later in the day, we also get Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence index for March.

From the US, initial jobless claims for the week ended on April 14th are coming out. Expectations are for jobless claims to have risen to 242k from 234k the previous week. This would bring the 4-wk moving average down to 243k from 247k. The Philly Fed business activity index for April is also coming out.

Besides the economic indicators, in Washington, Finance ministers and Central Bank governors from the G20 will meet on the sidelines of the bi-annual conference of the IMF and the World Bank, which is from Thursday until Sunday.

NZD/USD

Support: 0.7000 (S1), 0.6970 (S2), 0.6925 (S3)

Resistance: 0.7050 (R1), 0.7075 (R2), 0.7110 (R3)

WTI

Support: 50.50 (S1), 50.00 (S2), 49.00 (S3)

Resistance: 51.50 (R1), 52.50 (R2), 53.20 (R3)

AUD/USD – 0.7521

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term down

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: -
Target:  -
Stop:-

Aussie’s retreat after meeting resistance at 0.7611 earlier this week suggests consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 0.7485-90, however, a break of indicated previous support at 0.7473 is needed to retain bearishness and extend the fall from 0.7750 top to 0.7450-55 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7158-0.7750) but oversold condition should limit downside to 0.7380-85 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above 0.7560-65 would prolong consolidation and bring another bounce to 0.7600 but break of said resistance at 0.7611 is needed to revive bullishness, bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 0.7680 which is likely to hold from here. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.