Sample Category Title

USD/JPY - 109.10

Original strategy  :

Bought at 108.45, Target: 109.45, Stop: 108.30

Position :  - Long at 108.45

Target :  - 109.45

Stop : - 108.30

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 108.45, Target: 109.45, Stop: 108.65

Position :  - Long at 108.45

Target :  - 109.45

Stop : - 108.65

As dollar has eased after faltering below indicated resistance at 109.22, suggesting further consolidation would take place, however, reckon downside would be limited to 108.45-50 and bring another bounce to said resistance, break there would add credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 108.13, bring retracement of recent decline to 109.40-45 (previous resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.58-108.13) but reckon upside would be limited to 109.86-87 (50% Fibonacci retracement and previous resistance) and price should falter below 110.25-30 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 108.45. Below 108.30-32 would risk retest of 108.13 support (this week’s low) but break there is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 107.75-80 later.

USD/CHF - 0.9950

Original strategy :

Sold at 1.0000, Target: 0.9900, Stop: 1.0010

Position : - Short at 1.0000

Target :  - 0.9900

Stop : - 1.0010

New strategy  :

Exit short entered at 1.0000,

Position : - Short at 1.0000

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback has remained under pressure and mild downside bias remains for recent decline from 1.0108 top to extend weakness to 0.9935-38 (50% projection of 1.0067-0.9955 measuring from 0.9992) and then 0.9926 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9813-1.0108) but reckon 0.9900-05 (1.618 times projection of 1.0108-1.0008 measuring from 1.0067) would hold, bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to exit our short position entered at 1.0000. Above resistance at 0.9992 would suggest low is possibly formed but break of previous support at 1.0008 is needed to add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0020-30.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9961; (P) 0.9976; (R1) 0.9997; More.....

USD/CHF's fall from 1.0107 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for 0.9812 support. As noted before, correction from 1.0342 is still in progress with another leg started at 1.0107. Break of 0.9812 might be seen. But we'll look for bottoming signal below there. On the upside, above 1.0008 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.0107 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, we're still maintaining that firm break of 1.0342 key resistance is needed to confirm underlying bullish momentum in the cross. However, the corrective nature of the fall from 1.0342 is starting to give the medium term outlook a bullish favor. Hence, in stead of looking for topping signal around 1.0342, we'd now pay closer attention to upside acceleration as USD/CHF approaches this level again.

GBP/USD - 1.2803

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.2755, Target: 1.2855, Stop: 1.2720

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.2710, Target: 1.2850, Stop: 1.2675

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although cable rebounded after finding support at 1.2770 and gain to 1.2855-60 cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to signal the pullback from 1.2906 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend recent upmove to 1.2920-30 (2 times extension of 1.2365-1.2575 measuring from 1.2500), then 1.2950 but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2990-00 (1.236 times projection of 1.2109-1.2616 measuring from 1.2365 and psychological resistance). If said resistance continues to hold, then further consolidation would take place and another retreat to 1.2755-60 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) cannot be ruled out but 1.2700-10 should hold, bring another rally.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy cable on subsequent pullback as downside should be limited to 1.2710 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906), bring another rise. Below 1.2700 would defer and signal top has been formed, risk correction to 1.2660-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2515-1.2906) and price should stay well above 1.2608-16 (previous resistance now support).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2743; (P) 1.2801; (R1) 1.2833; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. With 1.2614 resistance turned support holds, near term outlook remains bullish for further rise. Firm break of 100% projection of 1.2108 to 1.2614 from 1.2365 at 1.2871 will target 161.8% retracement at 1.3184. Still, price actions from 1.1946 are seen as a correction. Hence we'd expect strong resistance below 1.3444 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, break of 1.2614 resistance turned support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2365 support first.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term reversal yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.42; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.23; More....

Intraday bias in USD/JPY as consolidation from 108.12 temporary low extends. With 110.10 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Rise from 98.97 is finished at 118.65 and fall from there would extend. On the downside, break of 108.12 will target 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 98.97 low. Nonetheless, break of 110.10 will be the first sign of near term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 112.19 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet and is extending. In case of deeper decline, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77 to bring rebound. Rise from 75.56 is still expected to resume later after the correction from 125.85 completes.

EUR/USD - 1.0758

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0729

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0724

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0707

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0676

Original strategy  :

Buy at 1.0685, Target: 1.0785, Stop: 1.0650

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 1.0690, Target: 1.0790, Stop: 1.0655

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has risen again after brief pullback, suggesting recent upmove from 1.0570 is still in progress and upside bias remains for further gain to 1.0783-85 (61.8% projection of 1.0602-1.0737 measuring from 1.0700), then 1.0800-10, however, loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0825-30, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy euro on pullback as 1.0690-00 should limit downside. Only below previous resistance at 1.0670 (now support) would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring correction towards previous support at 1.0635 which is likely to hold from here. 

Monday April 17, USD/JPY hit the lowest level of 108.12 since November 15, as a result of the strengthening of the yen on markets' safe haven demand.

However, the bearish attempt was held above the 108.00 support line since Monday.

On the 4-hourly chart, the 10-SMA crossed over the 20-SMA from below on Wednesday, the bulls have broken the downtrend line resistance, indicating the bearish momentum has been waning.

The daily Stochastic Oscillator reading is around 30, suggesting a rebound.

The resistance level is at 109.30, followed by 109.70 and 110.00.

The support line is at 108.65, followed by 108.30 and 108.00.

Keep an eye on the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's speech at 18:15 BST today, it will likely affect USD crosses.

Most importantly, be aware that the first round of the French presidential election will be held this Sunday April 23.

The recent polls showed a tightening race between the top four candidates: Macron, Le Pen, Fillion and Jean-Luc Melenchon. The difference of votes between the 4 candidates is less than 3% which poses more uncertainty to the election.

The consensus is that the Centrist Macron and the far-right wing Le Pen would likely get into the second round, then Macron would likely win the final vote.

However, be aware that if the result of the first-round surprises the markets, especially if the far-right wing Le Pen's share of vote sees a large increase, it will likely push safe havens further up. In this situation, USD/JPY will likely fall and test supports again.

The CAC 40 has improved on Thursday and is currently trading at 5043.00. It's a quiet day on the release front, with no major events on the schedule. Eurozone Consumer Confidence is expected to remain unchanged at -5 points. Friday will be busier, as France and Eurozone publish PMIs from the services and manufacturing sectors. The markets are expecting these indicators to point to expansion.

It's the final countdown before the French election, with the first round of voting slated for April 23. This election is one of the tightest in decades, with the four front-runners clustered within a few percentage points. Given the closeness and unpredictability of the election, it's no surprise that final opinion polls before the vote are moving markets. European stock markets have gained ground on Thursday following a Harris Interactive opinion poll, which shows centrist Emmanuel Macron gaining ground, with 25% of the vote. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen follows with 22%. Next are Republican candidate Francois Fillon and left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon, both tied at 19%. Le Pen and Melenchon are running on an anti-EU platform, so the markets are cheering for Macron and Fillion. We can expect more volatility as we near Election Day, and French banks will be manned throughout Sunday night in order to respond quickly to developments in the currency markets as the votes are counted.

Eurozone consumer inflation has been gaining strength in recent months, but softened in March. Final CPI slipped to 1.5%, compared to 2.0% a month earlier. The index climbed to 2.0% in February, which is the ECB's inflation target. This had led to speculation that the ECB might have to consider tightening its monetary policy, either by lowering interest rates or tapering its asset-purchase program (QE). The ECB's asset-purchase program is scheduled to remain in place until December, although the central bank will have to reconsider that date or taper the program if growth and inflation numbers in the Eurozone are unexpectedly strong. There are also political considerations at play, as the ECB is reluctant to make any significant monetary moves with the upcoming election in France and a September election in Germany.

What's next for Janet Yellen & Co.? The Federal Reserve has sent out broad hints that it plans to raise rates gradually in 2017, but the timing and number of moves in store remains uncertain. The Fed has broadly hinted that it plans two more rate hikes this year, but there have been calls from some Fed policymakers for three more hikes. However, soft retail sales and CPI numbers in March are likely to make the Fed more dovish, and on Tuesday, the Atlanta and New York Federal Reserve lowered their outlook for US economic growth for the first quarter. The Fed can point to a labor market that is close to capacity as well as strong consumer confidence, but surprisingly, this has not translated into stronger consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The odds of a June hike have slipped to 46% according to the CME Group, down sharply from 65% in early April.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0694; (P) 1.0715 (R1) 1.0732; More....

EUR/USD's rise from 1.0569 continues today and reaches as high as 1.0777 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0905 resistance and above. Nonetheless, choppy rise from 1.0339 is still seen as a correction. Hence, we'll pay attention to topping signal above 1.0905 again, as we'd expect larger down trend to resume later. On the downside, break of 1.0676 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.0569 instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.