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Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.96; (P) 118.50; (R1) 118.88; More...

EUR/JPY's decline accelerates to as low as 117.56 and took out 118.39/45 cluster support zone decisively. The development now argues that rise from 109.20 is completed. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 114.88 next. On the upside, above 118.62 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by 120.43 resistance and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, the firm break of 38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39 indicates that medium term rise from 109.20 is completed at 124.08. That's well below 126.09 key support turned resistance. Also, EUR/JPY failed to sustain above 55 week EMA. Deeper decline would now be seen back to 109.20 low. Overall, the down trend from 149.76 (2014 high) is not completed yet. Break of 109.20 will resume such down trend towards 94.11 low. In any case, break of 126.09 is needed needed to confirm medium term reversal.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD declined 0.16% against the USD and closed at 0.7602.

LME Copper prices declined 0.6% or $32.0/MT to $5817.0/MT. Aluminium prices rose 0.1% or $2.0/MT to $1948.5/MT.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.7603, with the AUD trading a tad higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Earlier in the session, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), in its latest monetary policy meeting, held the key interest rate steady at 1.50%, as widely expected.

In economic news, Australia's seasonally adjusted trade surplus widened more-than-expected to a level of A$3547.0 million in February, boosted by elevated iron ore prices and a sharp fall in imports of consumer goods. Markets anticipated the nation to record a surplus of A$1900.0 million, following a revised surplus of A$1503.0 million in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.7584, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7565. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7623, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7643.

Looking ahead, investors will direct their attention to Australia's AiG performance of services index for March, due to release in the early hours' tomorrow.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.09% against the USD and closed at 1.0666.

On the macro front, the Euro-zone's unemployment rate fell to 9.5% in February, meeting market expectations and hitting its lowest level in nearly eight years, thus chiming with other signs that the common currency region is regaining momentum. The region's unemployment rate had registered a reading of 9.6% in the previous month. Additionally, the region's manufacturing sector growth was confirmed at a nearly seven-year high level of 56.2 in March, meeting market expectations. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a level of 55.4.

Elsewhere, Germany's final Markit manufacturing PMI rose to a level of 58.3 in March, confirming the preliminary figures and following a reading of 56.8 in the previous month.

In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI eased to a level of 57.2 in March, meeting market expectations and falling from a more than two-year high level of 57.7 registered in the preceding month, suggesting that growth in the nation's manufacturing sector is losing some steam. Also, the nation's Markit manufacturing PMI was unexpectedly revised lower to a level of 53.3 in March, from a reading of 53.4 recorded in the preliminary print. The PMI had registered a reading of 54.2 in the previous month, whereas markets expected for a fall to a level of 53.5.

In contrast, the nation's construction spending rebounded 0.8% MoM in February, surging to its highest level in nearly eleven years, amid robust gains in home building investment. Construction spending had recorded a revised drop of 0.4% in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0663, with the EUR trading marginally lower against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0642, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0622. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0682, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0702.

Moving ahead, investors will look forward to the Euro-zone's retail sales data for February and a speech by the ECB President, Mario Draghi, due in a few hours. Moreover, in the US, trade balance figures, factory orders and final durable goods orders, all for February, scheduled to release later in the day, will keep investors on their toes.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.37% against the USD and closed at 1.2484, after data revealed that UK's manufacturing sector activity unexpectedly cooled for a third consecutive month in March.

UK's Markit manufacturing PMI surprisingly eased to a level of 54.2 in March, compared to market consensus for an advance to a level of 55.0 and dropping for a third straight month, thus highlighting that the nation's manufacturing sector ended the first quarter on a weaker footing. In the prior month, the PMI had recorded a revised reading of 54.5.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2490, with the GBP trading slightly higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2451, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2412. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2541, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2592.

Looking ahead, investors await the release of UK's Markit construction PMI for March, due in a few hours.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.45% against the JPY and closed at 110.87.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 110.64, with the USD trading 0.21% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

Overnight data indicated that Japan's monetary base rose 20.3% YoY in March, after recording a rise of 21.4% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.20, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.76. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.33, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.02.

March, scheduled to release in the early hours of tomorrow.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3969; (P) 1.4012; (R1) 1.4072; More...

EUR/AUD remains bounded in range of 1.3872/4309 and intraday bias remains neutral. We're holding on to the case of trend reversal after defending key support level at 1.3671. Another rise is expected as long as 1.3872 minor support holds. Break of 1.4309 will extend the rebound from 1.3624 to 1.4721 key resistance level next. Break should confirm larger trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3872 support will dampen our bullish view. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 1.3624 low instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a corrective pattern. Such correction could be completed after testing 1.3671 support. Break of 1.4721 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6587 to 1.3624 at 1.4756) should confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5455 and above. Overall, we'd expect the up trend from 1.1602 to resume later. However, sustained break of 1.3671 will invalidate our bullish view and would turn extend the fall from 1.6587 towards 1.1602 long term bottom.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the CHF and closed at 1.0018.

On the data front, Switzerland’s real retail sales rebounded 0.6% on an annual basis in February, rising for the first time in three-months. In the previous month, real retail sales had recorded a revised drop of 1.2%. Further, the nation’s SVME–PMI advanced to a level of 58.6 in March, higher than market expectations of an increase to a level of 58.0. The PMI had registered a level of 57.8 in the prior month.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0020, with the USD trading marginally higher from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0004, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9989. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0036, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0053.

With no economic releases in Switzerland today, investor sentiment will be governed by global macroeconomic factors.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8505; (P) 0.8531; (R1) 0.8571; More...

EUR/GBP recovered after forming a temporary low at 0.8430, ahead of 0.8402 support. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. There is no change in the view that price actions from 0.8303 are a consolidation pattern. And, it's the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. Below 0.8430 will target 0.8402. Break of 0.8402 will resume the fall from 0.9304 to 0.8116/20 cluster support, where the correction should end. Above 0.8604 minor resistance will bring another recovery before fall from 0.9304 resumes.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Such decline is likely ready to resume and should make a new low below 0.8303. At this point, we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high). However, sustained break of 0.8116 could bring deeper decline to next key support level at 0.7564 before the correction completes.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.47% against the CAD and closed at 1.3383.

Macroeconomic data showed that Canada's RBC manufacturing PMI advanced to a level of 55.5 in March, expanding at its fastest rate since October 2013, compared to a level of 54.7 recorded in the previous month.

Separately, the Bank of Canada (BoC), in its latest business outlook survey, indicated that the balance of opinion on future sales dropped to 21.0% from 26.0% in the previous quarter.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3383, with the USD trading flat against the CAD from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3328, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3272. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3419, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3454.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0674; (P) 1.0684; (R1) 1.0695; More...

As noted before, EUR/CHF's rebound form 1.0629 should have completed at 1.0823. Intraday bias stays mildly on the downside for 1.0620/29 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume the larger fall from 1.1198. On the upside, above 1.0709 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will be cautiously bearish as long as 1.0761 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet. sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. In any case, break of 1.0823 resistance is needed to be the first indication of reversal. Otherwise, deeper fall is still expected even in case of recovery.