Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0674; (P) 1.0692; (R1) 1.0701; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 1.0629 should have completed at 1.0823 already. Deeper fall would now be seen back to 1.0620/29 key support zone. Decisive break there will resume the larger fall from 1.1198. On the upside, above 1.0709 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral. But outlook will be cautiously bearish as long as 1.0761 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Current development suggests that it's not completed yet. sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. In any case, break of 1.0823 resistance is needed to be the first indication of reversal. Otherwise, deeper fall is still expected even in case of recovery.

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.25 %, Hang Seng gained 0.45 %, ASX 200 fell 0.30 %, Shanghai Composite closed for holiday
• Commodities: Gold at $1250 (-0.05 %), Silver at $18.24 (-0.10 %), WTI Oil at $50.50 (-0.15 %), Brent Oil at $53.40 (-0.20 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.40, UK 10-year yield at 1.14, German 10-year yield at 0.33

News & Data:

• Australian AIG Manufacturing Index Mar: 57.5 (prev 59.3)
• Australian Retail Sales (MoM) Feb: -0.1% (exp 3.0%; prior 0.4%)
• Australian Building Approvals (MoM) Feb: 8.3% (exp -1.0%; prior 1.8%)
• Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index 1Q: 12 (exp 14; prior 10)
• Japanese Large Manufacturing Outlook 1Q: 11 (exp 13; prior 8)
• Japanese Large Non-Manufacturing Index 1Q: 20 (exp 20; prior 18)
• Japanese Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook 1Q: 16 (exp 18; prior 16)
• Japanese Large All Industry CAPEX 1Q: 0.6% (exp -0.1%; prior 5.5%)
• Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Mar: 52.4 (prior 52.6)
• South Korean Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Mar: 48.4 (prior 49.2)

CFTC Positioning Data:

• EUR short 8K vs 20K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
• GBP short 104K vs 108K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 4K
• JPY short 53K vs 67K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 14K
• CHF short 16K vs 12K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
• CAD short 28K vs 24K short. Shorts increased by 4K
• AUD long 53K vs 45K long. Longs increased by 8K
• NZD short 13K vs 13K short last week. No change

Markets Update:

The FX market had a quiet start into the new trading week. The Euro recovered slightly, rising from 1.0650 to 1.0680 against the US Dollar. Selling interest is noted at 1.07 and 1.0720, while the next notable support level now lies at 1.06.

GBP/USD increased from 1.2525 to 1.2555 in Asia. The Pound remains strong, despite worries around the Brexit process. Recent UK economic data has been solid, putting the Bank of England back into the spotlight. The central bank might be forced to increase interest rates soon, amid rising inflation.

USD/JPY started the new trading week around 111.40 and declined to 111.10, as equity markets fell as well. Support is seen at 110.80, followed by 110.20 and the key level at 110.00. AUD/USD also came under pressure as risk appetite decrease. The currency pair declined from 0.7640 to 0.7610.

Upcoming Events:

• 08:45 GMT – Italian Manufacturing PMI
• 08:50 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
• 08:55 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
• 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
• 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing PMI
• 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Unemployment Rate
• 14:45 GMT – US Markit Manufacturing PMI
• 15:00 GMT – US ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 15:30 GMT – FOMC Member Dudley speaks
• 22:00 GMT – FOMC Member Lacker speaks

The Week Ahead:

Tuesday, April 4th

• 05:30 GMT – RBA Rate Decision
• 05:30 GMT – RBA Statement
• 09:30 GMT – UK Construction PMI
• 10:00 GMT – Euro Zone Retail Sales
• 10:15 GMT – RBA Governor Lowe speaks
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Trade Balance
• 14:30 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
• 15:00 GMT – US Factory Orders

Wednesday, April 5th

• 08:45 GMT – Italian Services PMI
• 08:50 GMT – French Services PMI
• 08:55 GMT – German Services PMI
• 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
• 09:30 GMT – UK Services PMI
• 13:15 GMT – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
• 14:45 GMT – US Markit Services PMI
• 15:00 GMT – US ISM Services PMI
• 15:30 GMT – US Crude Oil Inventories
• 19:00 GMT – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Thursday, April 6th

• 02:45 GMT – Chinese Caixin Services PMI
• 07:00 GMT – German Factory Orders
• 08:00 GMT – ECB President Draghi speaks
• 08:15 GMT – Swiss CPI
• 12:30 GMT – ECB Meeting Minutes
• 13:30 GMT – US Initial Jobless Claims
• 14:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
• 17:40 GMT – ECB Member Praet speaks
• 18:15 GMT – ECB Member Constancio speaks

Friday, April 7th

• 06:45 GMT – Swiss Unemployment Rate
• 07:00 GMT – German Trade Balance
• 07:00 GMT – German Industrial Production
• 07:45 GMT – French Trade Balance
• 08:30 GMT – UK Halifax House Price Index
• 09:30 GMT – UK Industrial Production
• 09:30 GMT – UK Manufacturing Production
• 09:30 GMT – UK Trade Balance
• 10:00 GMT – Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
• 13:30 GMT – US NFP
• 13:30 GMT – US Unemployment Rate
• 13:30 GMT – US Average Hourly Earnings
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Unemployment Rate
• 13:30 GMT – Canadian Employment Change
• 15:00 GMT – Canadian Ivey PMI
• 15:00 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

Recap

The U.S. dollar bulls finally regained some control of the market after three weeks of consecutive declines. Nonetheless, despite a 1% rally last week, the dollar index suffered 1.9% declines in the first quarter. The weakness in the greenback may be attributed to multiple factors, but the major one was the tax reform uncertainty. The failure to pass the healthcare reform vote by Trump’s administration cast doubt on the President’s ability to deliver on other promised policies, and the market's primary concern have become on whether he could unite Republicans behind his pro-growth plans.

The economic data released was rather mixed last week. U.S. PCE continued to firm in February, rising above the Fed’s 2% target and personal income rose 0.4%. Consumption, on the other hand, wasn’t encouraging as real personal spending slipped back by 0.1% in February, suggesting a lack of confidence amongst U.S. citizens, but given that many workers faced delays in tax refunds we’re likely to see spending figures recover in March.

Monetary policy makers have spent the last two weeks reminding investors of their intention to keep tightening monetary policy, which indicates that the Fed officials are going ahead with their plans regardless of what the U.S. administration achieve on the fiscal side.

Xi-Trump Summit

Finally, the time has come for the leaders of the two largest economies to meet. According to the White House, the meeting will be focused on global, regional, and bilateral issues of mutual concern. In fact, the meeting will more likely be focused on the US trade deficits with China. What makes this summit more complicated is the U.S. President’s intention to penalize currency manipulators, which China likely to be on the top of the list. If tensions escalated between the both Presidents, we’re likely to experience a wave of risk aversion, which will not only hurt the U.S. dollars but even global equities.

Fed minutes

After the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March, the dollar tumbled sharply due to what was interpreted a dovish hike. The little tweaks in the statement and economic projections suggested that the economy is still moving on the right path, but there was no evidence of overheating economy, and no requirement to fasten the pace of tightening. However, most of the recent speeches by Fed officials seemed more hawkish, and Wednesday will reveal more insight on how monetary policymakers are thinking when the minutes are released.

Non-farm payrolls

Traders’ favorite indicator is due to release on Friday. After a robust reading last month of 235,000, economists expect the number of jobs to slow down to 180,000. If the pace of job growth started showing signs of weakness, it might be bad news for U.S. dollar bulls. However, I believe earning growth will play a more important role, so it’s better to have a full picture of the jobs report before trading on the data.

Australia Retail Sales slump

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: China, Japan, Korea manufacturing PMIs retreat; Australia Retail Sales slump

Friday US Session Highlights

(US) FEB PERSONAL INCOME: 0.4% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Real Personal Spending (PCE): -0.1% v +0.1%e

(US) FEB PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E

(US) FEB PCE CORE M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.8% V 1.7%E

(US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Rate hikes to be data dependent; couple of more hikes in 2017 is reasonable

(US) MAR CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER: 57.7 V 56.9E

(US) Atlanta Fed cuts Q1 GDP to 0.9% from 1.0% on 3/24

Friday US markets on close: Dow -0.3%, S&P500 -0.2%, Nasdaq flat

Best Sector in S&P500: Real Estate

Worst Sector in S&P500: Financials

Biggest gainers: FMC +13.2%; MLM +3.2%; cBT +2.9%

Biggest losers: INCY -3.0%; URBN -2.9%; AN -2.8%

At the close: VIX 12.4 (+0.8pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.27% (-2bps), 10-yr 2.40% (-2bps), 30-yr 3.02% (-1bps)

Politics

(AU) Approval rating for Australia's ruling Coalition slips to 47% v 53% for opposition Labor party in two-party terms - Australian

(US) President Trump: Will handle North Korea without China's help if need to - FT

(US) Pres Trump tweets, calls on media to investigate "Obama SURVEILLANCE SCANDAL and stop with the Fake Trump/Russia story"

Weekend US/EU Corporate Headlines

4503.JP: Acquires privately owned drug discovery company, Ogeda SA for €800M

TSLA: Reports Q1 deliveries just over 25.0K (~13.5K Model S; ~11.6K Model X), +69% y/y; Production 25.4K (deliveries and production fresh record highs)

Key economic data:

(CN) CHINA MAR CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 51.2 V 51.7E (9th consecutive expansion)

(JP) JAPAN Q1 TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURING INDEX: 12 V 14E; MANUFACTURERS OUTLOOK: 11 V 13E; ALL-INDUSTRY CAPEX: 0.6% V -0.3%E

(JP) JAPAN MAR FINAL PMI MANUFACTURING: 52.4 V 52.6 PRELIM

(AU) AUSTRALIA FEB RETAIL SALES M/M: -0.1% V +0.3%E

(AU) AUSTRALIA FEB BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: +8.3% (7-month high) V -1.5%E; Y/Y: -4.9% (smallest decline in 3 months) V -14.5%E

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR MELBOURNE INSTITUTE INFLATION M/M: 0.1% V -0.3% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.2% (14-month high) V 2.1% PRIOR

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR CORELOGIC RPDATA HOUSE PRICES M/M: 1.4% V 1.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 12.9% (7-year high)

(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR AIG MANUFACTURING INDEX: 57.5 V 59.3 PRIOR; 6th month of expansion

(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR PMI MANUFACTURING: 48.4 V 49.2 PRIOR; 8th consecutive month of contraction

Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press

Asian equity markets are trading mixed, tracking underwhelming US Friday session where PCE inflation data were in line with consensus, Chicago PMI numbers saw decent growth, but personal spending data missed expectations. Oil prices have remained supported above the $50/brl level, while US Treasuries were bid somewhat higher within their recent range. FX market volatility was also somewhat dulled by the start of a holiday break in China - USD majors saw little change with the exception of AUD/USD, which slid some 40pips from the highs toward $0.76 on the release of weaker than expected Retail Sales.

Aussie retail figures came in unexpectedly negative, with a -0.1% slide against expected 0.3% rise, sending AUD down to its lows. This may allow RBA some flexibility as it prepares to crafts its monetary policy statement on tap for tomorrow. Slowing Australia spending as well as recent slump in exports is mitigated by continued price pressures in the property sector - just today, CoreLogic for March saw prices nationwide rise by 12.9% on the year - a 7-year high. Building Approvals data were also higher, with m/m increase registering its 7-month high rate of growth.

Over the weekend, China March Caixin manufacturing PMI missed expectations at 51.2 V 51.7E. Caixin economists noted continued downward trend in employment, weakest new export sales this year, and further slowdown in the rate of input price inflation, even though the overall figure was in expansion territory for the 9th straight month. Also of note in China, BoC released its FY16 results that saw a miss on the bottom line, a 200bp drop in ROE and 30bp slide in NIMs. The bank warned domestic and international picture will remain "complicated this year" amid China's economic transition as its shares fell over 2% in Hong Kong.

Other PMI figures from the far east were mixed. South Korea's was most troubling, remaining in contraction for 8th straight month amid "sharpest decline in employee numbers" since the end of 2008. New export orders also slumped due to weaker demand from China amid THAAD system deployment dispute. Japan final PMI also retreated somewhat from the prelim figure, even though Q1 Tankan showed more signs of economic recovery.

China

(CN) China announces property curbs in city of Tianjin - China Daily (update)

(CN) PBOC raises interest rates on Standing Lending Facility (SLF) Loans by 0.2pts to 3.3% effective Mar 16th - press

(HK) Macau Mar Gaming Rev MOP21.23B v MOP22.99B prior; y/y: 18.1% v +11%e

Japan

(JP) Japan megabanks said to be planning to raise mortgage rates - Nikkkei

Australia/New Zealand

(NZ) New Zealand Treasury March Monthly Economics Indicators report: Inflation was near 2% in Q1; sees inflation below 2% later in 2017

Korea

(KR) South Korea, Japan, and US naval forces to hold 3-day anti-submarine training - press

Asian Equity Indices/Futures (00:00ET)

Nikkei +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Shanghai Composite closed, ASX200 -0.3%, Kospi +0.2%

Equity Futures: S&P500 flat; Nasdaq +0.1%, Dax flat, FTSE100 flat

FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (00:00ET)

EUR 1.0650-1.0680 (3-month high); JPY 111.10-111.50; AUD 0.7610-0.7640; NZD 0.7000-0.7015; GBP 1.2530-1.2555

Apr Gold flat at 1,250/oz; May Crude Oil -0.1% at $50.53/brl; May Copper -0.3% at $2.65/lb

(US) Weekly Baker Hughes US Rig Count: 824 v 809 w/w (+1.9%) (11th straight weekly rise)

iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 10,274 tonnes from 10,292 tonnes prior; 3rd straight decline

(KR) South Korea MoF sells 3-yr bonds; avg yield 1.67%

Asia equities/Notables/movers

Australia

DOW.AU Downer -1.9% (Cut at Morgan Stanley)

MLD.AU Maca +3.9% (contract)

Japan

4613.JP Kansai Pain +2.2% (raised at Nomura)

8750.JP Daichi Life -3.7% (medium term growth target speculation)

6502.JP Toshiba -6.6% y/y (may miss Q3 earnings results again)

Hong Kong

1919.HK Cosco Shipping +0.6% (FY16 results)

1186.HK China Railway Constructino (CRCC) +2.7% (FY16 results)

1893.HK China National Materials Company +4.7% (FY16 results)

0661.HK China Daye Non Ferrous Metals Mining +3.3% (FY16 results)

3988.HK Bank of China -2.1% (FY16 results)

3688.HK Top Spring International Holdings Ltd +5.7% (FY16 results)

Market movers today

Today, ISM manufacturing for March is due out in the US. ISM manufacturing has soared over the past couple of months, emphasising that there is progress in manufacturing. In the same period, we have seen a divergence between ISM and PMI manufacturing emerge. Based on this, one would argue that ISM manufacturing could be in for a fall. However, regional manufacturing indices cont inued rising in March. Thus, there are mixed signals concerning the March ISM figures. We est imate that the ISM manufacturing fell back slight ly to 56.0 in March. Today also brings a number of speeches by FOMC members and we will also get the minutes from the 14-15 March FOMC meet ing on Wednesday. We will in part icular look for discussions on t he Fed's desire t o begin shrinking its balance sheet , as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said at the press conference that the FOMC members discussed it at the meet ing.

The absolute highlight of the week in the US will be the labour market report for March on Friday. The labour market has been in good shape over the past two months and we expect this t rend to cont inue. We est imate a total of 160,000 new jobs were created in March of which the service sector provided 160,000 and manufacturing 15,000. We furthermore expect the unemployment rat e remained at 4.7% aft er last mont h's decrease. As a warm -up for the labour market report , ADP employment for March is due out on Wednesday. Although not a perfect predictor, ADP tends to give a relat ively good idea of what to expect from the official jobs report .

In the euro area, it is today t ime for PMIs for both for single count ries and the eurozone. In general, consensus is looking for a consolidat ion at an already high level. If anything, the risk is also skewed to the downside in Europe as in the US. The unemployment figure for February is also due for release today. From its January level of 9.6%, we est imate unemployment fell to 9.5%, cont inuing its steady decline since 2013. Business sent iment suggests that unemployment will cont inue declining as the PMI employment indicator, especially within services, showed st rength in January and February.

Selected market news

After the lower-than-expected inflat ion data from Germany and Spain on Thursday, it was no major surprise that euro area HICP inflat ion on Friday came out at just 1.5% y/y and that core inflat ion dropped to 0.7% y/y in March. Together wit h last week's comments from ECB officials, especially the Reuters stories of unconfirmed ‘ECB sources' that the ECB was surprised about t he ‘hawkish' market interpretation after its latest meet ing, the EUR money market curve has once again been repriced. The market is once again looking for the first rate hike in summer 2018. We cont inue to hold the view that the ECB will extend the QE programme into 2018 at the September ECB meet ing.

Spain has together with Portugal been the posit ive growth surprise in southern Europe. On Friday, this was acknowledged by S&P, which changed the out look for Spain from stable to posit ive, indicat ing that a rat ing upgrade could be next . S&P said that it believed the st rong economic performance would cont inue over the next two years.

Key Points:

• Technical bias remains bullish despite a rather torrid week.
• Descending trend line could now be challenged moving ahead.
• RBA in focus as the Cash Rate is set to be announced.

The AUDUSDwas all over the place last week which leaves its outlook for the week ahead somewhat unclear. As a result, it is worthwhile taking a look at both what caused last week's performance and what is on the agenda as we move ahead. Furthermore, we can look to the technicals to get a better picture of what to expect as we press on.

Starting with last week's performance, the AUD was initially rallying reasonably strongly but soon had these gains taken away by better than expected US data. Specifically, as was the case for most pairs, the uptick in the US Final GDP figure to 2.1% caused a bit of stir and a sharp return in sentiment for the USD on Thursday. However, this trend extended into Friday's session for the AUDUSD as the Australian Private Sector Credit figure disappointed at only 0.3% which offset any shortcomings in the US Personal Spending and Personal Income data. Overall, this saw the pair close the week basically where it opened it.

On the technical front, the AUD remained relatively bullish which could now leave it open to netting some modest gains this week. Of course, upsides will be limited by the descending trend line but a number of other instruments are hinting that challenging this line could actually be on the cards. For one, the moving averages are still firmly bullish, a bias also shared with the Parabolic SAR. Moreover, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are both neutral which gives the pair plenty of room to rally without fear of moving into overbought territory.

As for what lies ahead in the fundamental news, there is a bevy of data on offer which could lead to a rather volatile week for the Aussie Dollar. What's more, this volatility will largely spike early on as the RBA's Cash Rate decision is due out Tuesday alongside the Australian Trade Balance. Presently, expectations are that the rate is held steady at 1.50% as the central bank will be loath to put any further upward pressure on AUD and hamstring exporters. As a result, the rhetoric accompanying the announcement may generate more movement than the rate choice itself so keep an eye on the RBA's Lowe.

Ultimately, we expect to see some more bullishness on the horizon for the AUD but, as mentioned, not too much. Specifically, the combination of the overarching bullish technical bias and the increased focus on the pair, given the RBA's Cash Rate announcement, could see the descending trend line challenged within the next week or so. However, we don't expect to see this challenge result in a breakout even with some decent fundamental support.

Key Points:

• Cable buoyant as market looks past Brexit risk.
• Inflationary pressures rising with the UK.
• Watch for a break of resistance around 1.2569.

The Cable had a relatively historic week with the formal triggering of the Article 50 Brexit provisions causing some volatility for the pair. However, the pair recovered fairly quickly as the market appears to be looking past the Brexit and towards the currently strong inflation figures and the chance of near term rate hikes from the Bank of England. Subsequently, given the looming NFP result, it makes sense to review last week’s event, and what could potentially lay on the horizon for the venerable Cable.

Last week was a historic moment for the Cable as UK Prime Minister May formally triggered the Article 50 exit provisions to start the Brexit process. Although this was largely expected, what was a surprise was the EU’s position that no negotiations on trade will occur until separation procedures had begun and no agreement on trade would be concluded until a full exit had occurred. Subsequently, the Cable was initially under pressure but this quickly reversed because it would appear that the market is largely looking beyond the Brexit risk and is instead focusing upon the strong UK inflation and the increased chance of a rate hike from the Bank of England. Subsequently, the Cable actually managed to finish the week around 50 pips higher at 1.2551.

Looking ahead, the pair is in for a busy week with the primary focus likely to fall upon the UK Manufacturing and Services PMI figures which are forecast at 55.1, and 53.5 respectively. It’s highly likely that those figures will prove to be relatively robust given the strength evident within the UK economy of late. In addition, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll figures are also due out, late in the week, with most forecasts placing the print somewhere around the 180k mark. However, this is likely to be the hardest figure to forecast, so don’t put too much stock in the market forecasts. The U.S. labour market has been under pressure of late so we could potentially be in for a slightly weaker result than expected. Regardless, both the UK PMI’s and U.S. NFP figures will cause plenty of swings and volatility for the pair in the week ahead.

From a technical perspective, the Cable’s price action continues in a sideways, consolidative fashion and is yet to deliver a clear trend in either direction. The current pattern argues for an extension of the consolidative phase which is also supported by the relatively flat RSI Oscillator. The medium term is largely weighted to the upside but price action is likely to remain trending sideways in the week ahead which means our bias remains neutral. Support is currently in place for the pair at 1.2376, 1.2299, and 1.2197. Resistance exists on the upside at 1.2569, 1.2615, and 1.2705.

Ultimately, the current UK economic conditions appear to be the strongest driver of the Cable’s recent rally. The Bank of England is likely to be increasingly under pressure to hike the official bank rate if inflation continues to creep higher. Subsequently, the Cable is likely to remain buoyant in the week ahead but watch for a sentiment swing back towards the greenback in the event of any jawboning from the Fed’s Janet Yellen.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7611; (P) 0.7637; (R1) 0.7653; More...

AUD/USD dips notably today but stays above 0.7586 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the downside, break of 0.7586 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next. On the upside, break of 0.7748 will extend the rally from 0.7158. In that case, we'd expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8165) and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3279; (P) 1.3323; (R1) 1.3362; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Outlook is unchanged that fall from 1.3534 is seen as a correction. below 1.3263 will bring deeper fall. But we'd expect strong support from 1.3211 cluster level (61.8% retracement of 1.3008 to 1.3534 at 1.3209) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3413 will argue that such correction is completed and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3534 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg from 1.2460 is likely still in progress and could target 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838. We'd look for reversal signal there to start the third leg. Break of 1.2968 will argue that the third leg has already started and should at least bring at retest of 1.2460 low. However, sustained trading above 1.3838 would pave the way to retest 1.4689 high.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0632; (P) 1.0666 (R1) 1.0687; More.....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, corrective rise from 1.0339 is completed and larger down trend is possibly ready to resume. Break of 1.0494 should confirm this bearish case and target 1.0339 low and below. Break of 1.0339 will confirm down trend resumption and target parity next. On the upside, above 1.0739 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn focus back to 1.0905 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.1298 key resistance holds, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still expected to continue. Break of 1.0339 low will send EUR/USD through parity to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. However, considering bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, break of 1.1298 will indicate term reversal. this would also be supported by sustained trading above 55 week EMA.