Sample Category Title

EUR/GBP - 0.8655

 
Recent wave: Major double three (A)-(B)-(C)-(X)-(A)-(B)-(C) is unfolding and 2nd (A) has possibly ended at 0.6936.

Trend: Near term down

Original strategy  :

Bought at 0.8620, met target at 0.8750

Position : - Long at 0.8620

Target :  - 0.8720

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

 
The single currency found renewed buying interest at 0.8618 and staged the anticipated rebound, our long position entered at 0.8620 met upside target at 0.8720 with 100 points profit, having said that, as euro ran into selling interest at 0.8735 and has retreated, suggesting further consolidation would take place and pullback to 0.8660 cannot be rule out, however, reckon 0.8635-40 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above 0.8635 would suggest the fall from 0.8788 has ended, bring test of indicated resistance at 0.8760, break there would confirm and bring retest of 0.8788, a breach there would extend the rise from 0.8403 low to 0.8800 and later 0.8825-30.

As we have taken profit on our long position entered at 0.8620, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand asIde for now. Below 0.8620 would risk test of 0.8605 (previous support as well as 50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8422-0.8788), break there would suggest top has been formed at 0.8788, risk test of 0.8560-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) but support at 0.8547 should remain intact. 

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.

USD/CAD - 1.3369

 
Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term up

 
Original strategy       :

Exit short entered at 1.3400,

Position: - Short at 1.3400

Target:  -

Stop: -

 
New strategy             :

Stand aside

Position: -

Target:  -

Stop:-

Although the greenback retreated after meeting resistance at 1.3415 yesterday and weakness to 1.3326 support cannot be ruled out, break there is needed to revive bearishness, bring retest of said last week’s low at 1.3264, below there would add credence to our view that top has been made at 1.3535 earlier this month, bring further fall to 1.3235-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3056-1.3535) but previous resistance at 1.3210 would hold due to loss of downward momentum.

On the upside, whilst recovery to 1.3400 cannot be ruled out, a firm break above 1.3415 is needed to signal low has been formed at 1.3264 last week, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3450 and possibly test of resistance at 1.3479 but only break of 1.3495 resistance would indicate the pullback from 1.3535 has ended and bring retest of this level later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

USD/CHF - 0.9955

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

The greenback rallied after finding renewed buying interest at 0.9831 yesterday, dampening our bearishness and suggesting recent decline has ended at 0.9813, hence upside risk remains for this rise from 0.9813 to bring retracement of recent decline and further gain to resistance at 0.9960 would be seen but break there is needed to provide confirmation and retain bullishness for further rise towards another previous chart resistance at 1.0003 later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. below the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9888) would suggest an intra-day top is formed instead, bring weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 0.9851) but break of said support at 0.9831 is needed to revive bearishness for retest of 0.9813 first.

GBP/USD - 1.2420

Original strategy :

Sell at 1.2500, Target: 1.2365, Stop: 1.2535

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.2500, Target: 1.2365, Stop: 1.2535

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As cable has dropped sharply since yesterday, suggesting top has been formed at 1.2616 and the selloff from there is likely to bring retracement of recent upmove, hence further weakness to 1.2360-65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2109-1.2616) would be seen, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2335 support and reckon 1.2300-05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold from here, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to turn short on recovery as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2486) should limit upside and bring decline. Above 1.2500-10 would defer but only break of previous support at 1.2539 would abort and signal the fall from 1.2616 has ended instead, bring rebound to 1.2560-65 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 119.79; (P) 120.08; (R1) 120.48; More...

EUR/JPY's fall from 122.88 resumed by taking out 119.31 and reaches as low as 119.00 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 118.23 support. Overall, price actions from 124.08 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence we'd expect strong support around 118.45 key cluster support level (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 120.43 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 122.88 resistance.

In the bigger picture, we're holding on to the view that medium term rise from 109.20 is still in progress. Focus is on 126.09 key resistance level. Sustained break will confirm completion of the whole decline from 149.76. And rise from 109.20 is of the same degree as the fall from 149.76. In such case, further rally would be seen to 104.04 resistance and possibly above before topping. Meanwhile, rejection from 126.09, or firm break of 118.45 cluster support, will likely extend the fall from 149.76 through 109.20 low.

EUR/USD - 1.0754

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the fall from 1.0906 is still in progress and downside risk remains for this fall to extend weakness towards support at 1.0719, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp all below 1.0695-00 and reckon 1.0670 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a rebound to take place later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above 1.0780 would bring recovery to 1.0800 but only break of resistance at 1.0827 would signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0850 later.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8639; (P) 0.8663; (R1) 0.8709; More...

EUR/GBP rebounded to as high as 0.8734 earlier today but quickly reversed. The development mixed up the near term outlook a bit and turns intraday bias neutral first. Still, price actions from 0.8303 are forming a corrective pattern, as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. Below 0.8604 will turn bias to the downside for 0.8402. Break will target 0.8116 cluster support, where the correction from 0.9304 should end. On the upside, above 0.8786 will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

USD/JPY - 110.90

Original strategy  :

Sold at 111.20, Target: 110.20, Stop: 111.35

Position :  - Short at 111.20

Target :  - 110.20

Stop : - 111.35

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 111.20, Target: 110.20, Stop: 111.35

Position :  - Short at 111.20

Target :  - 110.20

Stop : - 111.35

Although dollar staged a strong rebound after holding above support at 110.11, as this move is still viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 111.30-35 and bring retreat later, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 110.75) would bring weakness to 110.50 but only break of said support at 110.11 would confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 109.95-00 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 109.70-75 and reckon 109.50 would hold.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 111.20, Only above 111.48-51 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 112.90-110.11) would abort and signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 111.80-85 first (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.47; (P) 110.84; (R1) 111.49; More...

USD/JPY's consolidation from 110.10 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias stays neutral first. As long as 111.57 resistance holds, deeper decline is in favor. Below 110.10 will extend the current fall from 118.65 to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42 and possibly below. Meanwhile, firm break of 111.57 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.96).

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.11) will indicates that such consolidation is not completed. And another fall would be seen back to 98.97 as the third leg. In that case, downside would be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.95 at 94.77 to complete the correction. On the upside, above 115.49 will extend the rise from 98.97 to retest 125.85 first. Overall, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume after the consolidation from 125.85 completes.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9858; (P) 0.9897; (R1) 0.9962; More.....

USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9812 extends higher today. The break of 0.9959 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 0.9812 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 55 day EMA (now at 1.0025). Sustained trading above there will argue that whole decline from 1.0342 has completed. Further rise should then be seen to 1.0169 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, below 0.9912 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 0.9812 instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/CHF is staying in medium term sideway pattern between 0.9443/1.0342. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of deeper fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone.