Sample Category Title

EUR/USD - 1.0793

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0807

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0829

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0869

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0834

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.0800, Target: 1.0900, Stop: 1.0765

Position : - Long at 1.0800

Target :  - 1.0900

Stop : - 1,0765

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.0800, Target: 1.0900, Stop: 1.0765

Position : - Long at 1.0800

Target :  - 1.0900

Stop : - 1.0765

Although the single currency has remained under pressure after overnight selloff and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness, as this move is viewed as retracement of recent upmove, reckon downside would be limited and bring rebound later, above 1.0825-30 would suggest and intra-day low is formed but break of 1.0845-50 is needed to add credence to this view, bring test of resistance at 1.0873 first. Only break of 1.0873 would signal the retreat from 1.0903 has ended, bring retest of this level, above there would extend recent rise to 1.0930-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1300-1.0340) but loss of near term upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0955-60 and price should falter below 1.0990-00.

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.0800. Only below support at 1.0760 would abort and signal top has been formed at 1.0906, bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.0730 but 1.0719 support should remain intact. 

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8639; (P) 0.8663; (R1) 0.8709; More...

The strong rebound from 0.8604 and break of 0.8699 minor resistance suggests that pull back from 0.8786 is completed. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside for 0.8786 first. Break will extend the rise from 0.8402 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922. Overall, price actions from 0.8303 are forming a corrective pattern, as the second leg of the correction from 0.9304. We'd expect strong resistance above 0.8922 to limit upside and bring another fall.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support from 0.8116 cluster support (50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the EUR declined 0.46% against the USD and closed at 1.0814.

In economic news, Italy’s seasonally adjusted industrial sales slid 3.5% on a monthly basis in January, following a revised rise of 2.5% in the previous month. Also, the nation’s seasonally adjusted industrial orders dropped 2.9% MoM in January, compared to a revised rise of 3.0% in the prior month.

The greenback traded higher against most of its major peers, on the back of robust economic data in the US.

Data revealed that the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly jumped to a level of 125.6 in March, surging to its highest level in more than sixteen years, as consumers expressed greater optimism regarding the short-term outlook for business, jobs and personal income prospects. Market participants expected the index to fall to a level of 114.0, compared to a revised reading of 116.1 recorded in the previous month. Additionally, the nation’s advance goods trade deficit narrowed more-than-anticipated to a level of $64.8 billion in February, as imports dropped sharply, compared to a revised deficit of $68.8 billion in the preceding month, while investors expected the nation’s goods trade deficit to narrow to a level of $66.4 billion. Also, the nation’s flash wholesale inventories rebounded 0.4% in February, compared to a revised drop of 0.3% in the previous month, whereas markets were anticipating for an advance of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chairman, Stanley Fischer, reinforced the case for two more rate hikes this year, stating that he expects the Fed to raise interest rates two more times this year.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.0818, with the EUR trading marginally higher against the USD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0785, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0753. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0861, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0905.

Moving ahead, traders look forward to Germany’s import price index for February, slated to release in a few hours. Additionally, the US pending home sales for February and weekly mortgage applications data, slated to release later in the day, will be on investor’s radar.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the GBP declined 0.84% against the USD and closed at 1.2456, amid heightened anxiety as the UK Government is set to launch Britain's formal exit from the European Union (EU).

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.2415, with the GBP trading 0.33% lower against the USD from yesterday's close, with investors looking forward to the UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, as she is set to invoke Article 50 of the EU Treaty later today, with a formal notification of Britain's intent to leave the Euro-bloc, kicking off a two-year period of Brexit negotiations.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.2328, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2241. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2549, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2683.

Going ahead, market participants look forward to UK's consumer credit and mortgage approvals data, both for February, slated to release in a few hours.

The currency pair is trading below its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD rose 0.45% against the JPY and closed at 111.10.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 111.22, with the USD trading 0.11% higher against the USD from yesterday's close.

Overnight data revealed that Japan's seasonally adjusted retail trade rose less-than-anticipated by 0.2% MoM in February, compared to a revised similar rise in the previous month. Markets were anticipating retail trade to rise 0.3%. On the contrary, the nation's large retailer's sales eased 2.7% in February, surpassing market expectations for a fall of 1.8% and following a drop of 1.1% in the prior month.

The pair is expected to find support at 110.48, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 109.73. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 111.64, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 112.05.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0691; (P) 1.0705; (R1) 1.0720; More...

EUR/CHF remains bounded in range of 1.0683/0761 and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. We'd slightly favoring the case of trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. And, further rise is mildly in favor as long as 1.0683 minor support holds. Above 1.0761 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for 1.0823 resistance first. Break will re-affirm the case of trend reversal and target 1.0897 resistance next. However, firm break of 1.0683 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 1.0620 key support level again.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Decisive break of 1.0897 resistance should confirm that it's completed. And in that case, larger up trend is resuming for another high above 1.1198. Meanwhile, sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 0.9916, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CHF from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 0.9852, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9787. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9958, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9999.

Ahead in the day, market participants will closely watch Switzerland's ZEW survey of expectations index for March, the UBS consumption indicator for February as well as the KOF spring economic forecast report.

The currency pair is trading above its 20 Hr and 50 Hr moving averages.

USD/JPY - 111.10

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 111.18

Kijun-Sen level                  : 110.75

Ichimoku cloud top             : 110.80

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 110.57

Original strategy  :

Sold at 111.20, Target: 110.20, Stop: 111.55

Position :  - Short at 111.20

Target :  - 110.20

Stop : - 111.55

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 111.20, Target: 110.20, Stop: 111.35

Position :  - Short at 111.20

Target :  - 110.20

Stop : - 111.35

Although dollar staged a strong rebound after holding above support at 110.11, as this move is still viewed as retracement of recent decline, reckon upside would be limited to 111.30-35 and bring retreat later, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 110.75) would bring weakness to 110.50 but only break of said support at 110.11 would confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 109.95-00 but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 109.70-75 and reckon 109.50 would hold.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 111.20, Only above 111.48-51 (previous resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 112.90-110.11) would abort and signal low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 111.80-85 first (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly rose against the CAD and closed at 1.3381.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Stephen Poloz, stated that Canada has a wide room for economic growth and if interest rates are raised now, it will lead the nation into recession.

In the Asian session, at GMT0300, the pair is trading at 1.3388, with the USD trading marginally higher against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3355, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3321. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3418, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3447.

Amid no economic releases in Canada today, investor sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic events.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading above its 50 Hr moving average.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7597; (P) 0.7625; (R1) 0.7664; More...

Break of 0.7647 minor resistance indicates temporary bottoming at 0.7586. But recovery from there is weak so far. Hence, intraday bias is turned neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.7748 will extend the rally from 0.7158. In that case, we'd expect strong resistance from long term retracement level at 0.7849 to limit upside. On the downside, below 0.7586 will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7490 support. Firm break there will confirm completion of rise from 0.7158. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bearish for 0.7158 support next.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8169) and above.