Sample Category Title

USD/JPY - 111.48

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level              : 111.17

Kijun-Sen level                  : 111.06

Ichimoku cloud top             : 111.80

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 111.29

Original strategy  :

Sell at 112.00, Target: 110.80, Stop: 112.35

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 112.20, Target: 110.80, Stop: 112.55

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Dollar’s rebound after marginal fall to 110.63 yesterday suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 111.80 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to previous support at 112.26 (now resistance) and bring another decline later. Below 110.75-80 would bring retest of 110.63 but break there is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed for further fall to 110.50, then 110.25-30 but loss of momentum should limit downside to 110.00. 

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell cable on recovery as previous support at 112.26 should limit upside. Above 112.50 would suggest low is possibly formed, risk a stronger rebound to 112.70 but only break of resistance at 112.87-90 would provide confirmation.

A note on lower timeframe confirming price action...

Waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is our main tool to confirm strength within higher timeframe zones, and has really been the key to our trading success. It takes a little time to understand the subtle nuances, however, as each trade is never the same, but once you master the rhythm so to speak, you will be saved from countless unnecessary losing trades. The following is a list of what we look for:

• A break/retest of supply or demand dependent on which way you're trading.
• A trendline break/retest.
• Buying/selling tails ... essentially we look for a cluster of very obvious spikes off of lower timeframe support and resistance levels within the higher timeframe zone.
• Candlestick patterns. We tend to only stick with pin bars and engulfing bars as these have proven to be the most effective.

EUR/USD

For those who read Thursday's report you may recall our desk suggesting that the bears may have the upper hand in this market. As you can see, H4 price closed below the H4 support area at 1.0797-1.0780, and quickly retested it as a resistance. In view of the higher timeframes also challenging a weekly resistance level at 1.0819, we have entered short on the close of the previous H4 bear candle at 1.0783 and placed our stop above February's opening level (1.0801) at 1.0807.

Our suggestions: With the closest the higher-timeframe support structure not coming into view until we reach the daily support area formed at 1.0714-1.0683, we feel our trade will reach the H4 demand at 1.0705-1.0723 which happens to be positioned around the top edge of the aforementioned daily support area.

Data points to consider: Eurozone PMI data at 8-9am. FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.0783 ([live] stop loss: 1.0807).

GBP/USD:  

Daily bulls printed their third consecutive bullish candle yesterday, consequently lifting the pair up to a daily Quasimodo resistance line seen at 1.2523. This daily resistance, coupled with weekly price displaying supply at 1.2569-1.2404, places this market in overbought territory from a structural perspective.

However, given that the H4 candles recently closed above both the trendline resistance taken from the low 1.2346 and the 88.6% retracement seen at 1.2518, we'd need to see the bears not only close back below these structures, but also the nearby 1.25 handle, before our team considers shorting this pair.

Our suggestions: Ultimately, we're recommending holding fire and waiting for the bears to prove themselves before committing. A decisive close beyond 1.25 would, in our view, be an important bearish cue to begin hunting for shorts on any retest seen to the underside of this region. Targets from this point can be seen at the H4 mid-way support logged at 1.2450, followed by the 1.24 handle.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Watch for price to engulf 1.25 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (stop loss: dependent on the rejection candle, as we'd look to place the stop beyond the rejection candle's wick).

AUD/USD

Working our way from the top this morning, weekly bears appear to be in fine form as they continue selling this market after clipping the underside of a trendline resistance taken from the high 0.7835. On the condition that this pair remains in the red, the next port of call can be seen at 0.7524-0.7446: a weekly support zone. In conjunction with weekly price, we can see that yesterday's daily candle ran through the support area at 0.7699-0.7656, and has potentially opened up the runway south down to demand coming in at 0.7632-0.7584 (located a few pips above the aforementioned weekly support area).

Swinging across to the H4 chart, March's opening level at 0.7642 is currently doing a superb job in holding the unit lower. The next area of focus from this angle is seen relatively close by at the 0.76 handle, followed by February's opening level at 0.7577 (positioned within the above noted daily demand).

Our suggestions: Initially our team showed interest in shorting the underside of March's opening base line. Unfortunately, we missed the first retest. Therefore, should we be lucky enough to witness price retest this level for a second time today, our desk would drill down to the lower-timeframe structure and hunt for a sell setup (see the top of this report), which would likely enable us to enter with a tighter stop, and thus increase risk/reward.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.7642 region ([waiting for a lower-timeframe signal to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).

USD/JPY

Despite the pair closing lower for its eighth consecutive day yesterday, weekly price remains trading within the walls of a support area at 111.44-110.10. In addition to this, daily action is also seen capped between a resistance area at 111.35-112.37 and a nearby broken Quasimodo line at 110.58.

Although the H4 candles are currently trading above the 111 handle, we do not see much to hang our hat at this level. For the time being, momentum looks stronger to the downside as very few bullish candles have printed over the past few days. Furthermore, a buy from here would place one in direct conflict with the underside of the above said daily resistance area. And a sell from this base would, of course, position one against potential weekly buyers from the support area (see above).

Our suggestions: While 111 could remain intact today, we would prefer to wait and see if price touches gloves with the daily broken Quasimodo line mentioned above at 110.58 before looking to go long. That way, traders have the option of placing their stops beyond the weekly support area and also have some room to play with up to the aforementioned daily resistance zone.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 110.58 region (stop loss: ideally beyond the current weekly support area at 110.08ish).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

USD/CAD:

Price took on more of a subdued stance yesterday, ranging around 40 pips on the day. As of current (H4) price, the next area of focus to the upside can be seen at the 1.34 handle, followed closely by 1.3434/1.3419 (November, December and January's opening levels). Beneath current price, however, we still have an eyeball on the 1.33/1.3312 neighborhood (a H4 Quasimodo support at 1.3303, the 1.33 handle and March's opening base line at 1.3312).

Weekly action is currently seen trading below the 2017 yearly opening level at 1.3434, and shows room to drop lower from here. Daily flow on the other hand, offers very little in terms of direction at the moment, given that the unit is seen meandering mid-range between a supply coming in at 1.3494-1.3439 and a support area at 1.3212-1.3169.

Our suggestions: Essentially, we have our eye on two zones today:

1. The H4 1.33/1.3312 neighborhood. We would strongly advise waiting for a lower-timeframe confirming signal to take shape before pressing the buy button (see the top of this report), due to the lack of higher-timeframe confluence seen here.

2. The H4 1.3434/1.3419 region. When these monthly levels converge, we typically find that they hold firm the majority of the time offering at least a bounce. Also of note is the 1.34 handle. Psychological levels are prone to fakeouts, and with 1.3434/1.3419 lurking just above 1.34, we feel it'd be a fantastic barrier to help facilitate a fakeout.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm. Canadian inflation report at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 1.33/1.3312 ([waiting for a lower-timeframe buy signal to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: 1.3434/1.3419 ([waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).

USD/CHF

Wednesday's rebound from the 0.99 handle extended higher on Thursday, bringing the unit up to within touching distance of a H4 broken Quasimodo line at 0.9951. While this level also converges nicely with a daily resistance pegged at 0.9950 and a H4 61.8% Fib resistance planted at 0.9956, we have to take into account that weekly price is trading back above the weekly trendline support taken from the low 0.9443.

Before our desk considers buying this market, the daily supply zone at 1.0001-0.9957 would need to be engulfed. A sell from the 0.9950 region on the other hand, is something that interests us. Yes, by selling here, you're effectively shorting into potential weekly flow, but given the confluence surrounding this number, a bounce will likely be seen.

Our suggestions: To be on the safe side, a short from 0.9950 will only be considered valid should we manage to pin down a lower-timeframe sell signal (see the top of this report). From that point, the 0.99 barrier would the first take-profit zone.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 0.9950 region ([waiting for a lower-timeframe sell signal to form is advised before pulling the trigger] stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).

DOW 30:

Thanks to the daily resistance area seen printed at 20714-20821, daily flow chalked in a relatively aggressive selling wick yesterday. Over on the H4 chart, demand at 20620-20654 remains intact despite suffering multiple whipsaws. The next area of concern on this scale can be seen at 20769-20801: a resistance area that's shadowed closely by March's opening base line at 20824. The weekly chart recently topped at a record high of 21170, and shows room to drop down as far as the demand area at 19675-19964, which happens to fuse with the 2017 yearly opening level at 19769.

Our suggestions: With the daily candles sandwiched between the aforementioned resistance area and demand zone at 20527-20626, trading this market is tricky, especially as H4 price is also trading mid-range between the above noted H4 demand and resistance area!

As such, we intend on remaining flat into the close and reassessing the situation on Monday.

Data points to consider: FOMC member Evans speaks at 12pm and US core durable goods orders comes in just after at 12.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).

GOLD

Going into the early hours of yesterday's US segment, the yellow metal traded to a high of 1253.0 and then aggressively plunged back below March's opening level at 1245.9. As of current price, H4 action looks to be on course to connect with the support area coming in at 1235.7-1238.1. By the same token, the weekly chart shows that the buyers and sellers continue to battle for position around the resistance line pegged at 1241.2, and daily flow is trading back below the Quasimodo resistance at 1244.3.

Our suggestions: With the recent developments, and the recently closed H4 bearish candle formed at the underside of 1245.9, we believe a short in this market is valid with stops above the H4 candle wick (1246.5) at 1247.0, and an initial take-profit objective set at the H4 support area drawn from 1235.7-1238.1. However, seeing as how the team is already short the EUR, we'll pass on this setup.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: Shorting at current price is valid, in our opinion, with stops placed at 1247.0

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
    •    Time of formation: 19 Sep 2016
    •    Trend bias: Down

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
    •    Time of formation: 9 Nov 2016
    •    Trend bias: Near term up



EUR/JPY – 122.09

Although the single currency staged a brief bounce to 121.84 earlier this week, renewed selling interest quickly emerged there and the pair has dropped quite sharply again, dampening our bullishness and suggesting the rebound from 118.24 has ended at 122.89 last week, bring further fall to 119.00 but still reckon 118.80 would limit downside and price should stay well above said support at 118.24, bring another rebound later. Only a drop below said support at 118.24 would signal the erratic decline from 124.10 top has resumed and bring subsequent fall to 117.90-00, then 117.40-50.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 120.00-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 120.57) and bring another decline later. A daily close above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 121.20) would defer and risk rebound to the upper Kumo (now at 121.72) but only break of said resistance at 121.84 would revive bullishness and signal the fall from 122.89 has ended instead, bring further gain to 122.50, then retest of said resistance at 122.89. Looking ahead, a break there is needed to signal the rise from 118.24 low has resumed and extend further gain to resistance at 123.31, a daily close above this level would suggest the entire fall from 124.10 top has ended at 118.24 back in Feb and bring further subsequent headway towards this level.

Recommendation: Stand aside in the meantime.

On the weekly chart, despite rising to 122.89 earlier this month, the subsequent retreat formed two consecutive black candlesticks, suggesting the rebound from 118.24 has ended there and downside risk remains for weakness to 119.00 but said support at 118.24 should remain intact, bring further choppy trading. In the event euro drops below 118.24 level, this would signal the retreat from 124.10 top is still in progress and near term downside bias remains for this move to bring retracement of recent upmove, hence weakness to the Kijun-Sen (now at 118.09) is likely but a weekly close below there is needed to signal the rise from 109.49 has ended, bring further decline to 117.30-35, however, previous resistance at 116.29 should contain downside due to near term oversold condition, bring rebound later.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 120.00-10 and the Tenkan-Sen (now at 120.78) should hold from here, bring another decline later. Only above said resistance at 121.84 would suggest the pullback from 122.89 has ended instead, bring another test of this level, break there would signal the rebound from 118.24 is still in progress and may extend gain to indicated key resistance at 123.31. Looking ahead, a break above this level is needed to retain bullishness and signal recent rise from 109.49 low has resumed for retracement of early decline to 125.25-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 141.06-109.49), having said that, reckon resistance at 126.47 would cap upside and price should falter below resistance at 128.23, bring retreat later.

Weekly
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Bullish engulfing
    •    Time of formation: 02 May 2016
    •    Trend bias: Up

Daily
    •    Last Candlesticks pattern: Hammer
    •    Time of formation: 19 Oct 2016
    •    Trend bias: Up



USD/CAD – 1.3350

Although the greenback found support at 1.3264 and recovered, as renewed selling interest emerged at 1.2409 and price has retreated, suggesting near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 1.3535 top to bring retracement of recent upmove and below said support at 1.3264 would bring weakness to 1.3230, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3200 and bring another rise later. A daily close above 1.2409 resistance would suggest the pullback from 1.3535 top has ended and bring further gain to 1.2490-00 but said resistance at 1.3535 would hold on first testing. Looking ahead, only a break of this level would retain bullishness and extend early erratic upmove from 1.2461 low to 1.3599, then 1.3660-70 but still reckon upside would be limited to 1.3700 and risk from there is seen for a retreat later. 

On the downside, whilst initial fall to 1.3250 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.3200 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. Only below previous resistance at 1.3210 would abort and signal top has indeed been formed at 1.3535, bring further fall to 1.3160-65 and possibly towards 1.3100 but price should stay well above support at 1.3056, bring rebound later. Only a daily close below this level would revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.2969 has indeed ended, bring further fall to 1.3000 first, however, said support at 1.2969 should remain intact.



Recommendation: Buy at 1.3200 for 1.3400 with stop below 1.3100.


On the weekly chart, as the greenback retreated after meeting resistance at 1.3535, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.3250-60 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3200-10 and bring another rise later. Above 1.3405-10 would bring test of 1.3495 resistance but break of latter level is needed to signal the pullback from 1.3535 has ended, bring retest of this level first, break there would extend recent rise from 1.2969 to indicated resistance at 1.3599, however, a break of this resistance is needed to retain bullishness and signal upmove from 1.2461 (2016 low) has resumed for headway to 1.3700 and later towards 1.3835-40 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4690-1.2461) which is likely to cap upside.

On the downside, although pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3252) cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.3210 and bring another rise later. A drop below previous resistance at 1.3210 would suggest a temporary top is formed instead, risk weakness to 1.3150-60, break there would add credence to this view and signal the rebound from 1.2969 has ended, bring further fall to towards 1.3083, however, indicated support at 1.3056 support should hold.

We are taking the more aggressive view in USDJPY and calling the rally to 115.48 on 3/10 as Intermediate wave (B). Decline from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott wave structure with an extension in wave 3. Down from 115.48, Minor wave 1 ended at 114.46 and Minor wave 2 ended at 115.2. Minor wave 3 is extended and further subdivided into 5 impulse waves where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 114.49, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 114.82 and Minute wave ((iii)) is proposed complete at 110.714. Minute wave ((iv)) currently is in progress as a Flat Elliott Wave structure towards 111.7 – 112.3 area before pair turns lower in Minute wave ((v)) of 3. Afterwards, pair should bounce in Minor wave 4 and later on still see further downside to complete Minor wave 5 towards as low as 106.85 – 108.5 area. Bounces therefore are expected to be limited and shallow.

If current bounce is getting too big, then as an alternate, the move lower in USDJPY from 115.52 high is unfolding as a zig zag Elliottwave structure where Minor wave A ended at 110.58 low with subdivision of 5 impulsive waves . Current bounce will then be Minor wave B to correct decline from 3/10 high (115.52) before pair resumes lower again in Minor C. This alternate view is the less aggressive view but still calling for more downside in the pair as far as pair stays below 3/10 high. In both views (aggressive and less aggressive), we don’t like buying the pair.

1 Hour USDJPY Elliott Wave Chart

Global Markets:

• Asian stock markets: Nikkei up 0.90 %, Shanghai Composite fell 0.10 %, Hang Seng rose 0.05 %, ASX 200 rallied 0.80 %
• Commodities: Gold at $1243 (-0.30 %), Silver at $17.60 (+0.45 %), Brent Oil at $47.90 (+0.45 %), Brent Oil at $50.75 (+0.35 %)
• Rates: US 10-year yield at 2.43, UK 10-year yield at 1.24, German 10-year yield at 0.43

News & Data:

• New Zealand Trade Balance (NZD) (MoM) Feb: -18m (Est 180m) (Prior -285m)
• Japan Nikkei Manufacturing PMI for March (preliminary): 52.6 (prior 53.3)
• Japan manufacturers index +25 in March vs +20 in February
• PBOC sets USD/CNY central rate at 6.8845 (vs. yesterday at 6.8856)
• Fed's Kaplan: Fiscal reforms could provide upside to growth forecast
• Kaplan: Policies that slow work force growth would raise concerns
• Kaplan: Making reasonably good progress on 2% inflation
• Kaplan: We are approaching full employment
• Dollar, stocks edge up as U.S. healthcare vote back on – RTRS

Markets Update:

The US Dollar recovered slightly in Asia. USD/JPY bounced once again off 110.60 support and rallied to 111.45. Resistance is noted at 111.60, followed by 112. The technical outlook remains negative, and selling interest on larger rallies is likely to be high. Much will depend on whether US President Trump will be able to pass his healthcare reform today. A failure would signal that it will be difficult to pass his tax reform as well. The announced tax reform is one of the major reasons why the US stock market and the Dollar rallied.

GBP/USD jumped above 1.25 yesterday, following stronger than expected retail sales data. Techs have turned positive and suggest the rally could continue to 1.27. Meanwhile, the Euro is coming under pressure again after the topside was capped at 1.0820 resistance. The upcoming French election still weighs on the currency.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar weakened amid the risk-off sentiment. AUD/USD fell to 0.7610 overnight and a break sub-0.76 would signal that another decline towards 0.75 is likely.

Upcoming Events:

• 07:45 GMT – French GDP
• 08:00 GMT – French Manufacturing PMI
• 08:00 GMT – French Services PMI
• 08:30 GMT – German Manufacturing PMI
• 08:30 GMT – German Services PMI
• 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI
• 09:00 GMT – Euro Zone Services PMI
• 12:30 GMT – US Core Durable Goods Orders
• 12:30 GMT – Canadian CPI
• 13:05 GMT – FOMC Member Bullard speaks
• 13:45 GMT – US Manufacturing PMI
• 14:00 GMT – FOMC Member Dudley speaks

AUDUSD is showing 5 swings sequence from 12/23/2017 low after it managed to break above 02/23 peak so the sequence is bullish against Intermediate wave (X) low (0.7487). The pair did 5 waves impulsive move from 03/09 low in Minute wave ((a)) which ended at 03/23 peak (0.7749) and currently doing Minute wave ((b)) pullback that's unfolding as a double three structure. We expect Minute wave ((b)) to complete in the blue box equal legs area (0.7571 – 0.7544) where AUDUSD can resume the rally for new highs or bounce in 3 waves at least. If the pair manage to get above (0.7683) high before reaching the inflection area then there is a chance that Minute wave ((b)) ended and the next leg to the upside started already. We don't like selling the pair and expect buyers to appear in above mentioned area for new highs above wave ((a)) or a 3 wave bounce at least.

AUDUSD 1 H Chart

Key Points:

• Mean reversion likely to occur for the Cable.
• RSI Oscillator nearing overbought levels.
• Watch for a retracement in the days ahead.

The U.K managed to surprise everyone overnight as the latest round of retail sales proved highly robust, coming in well above estimates at 3.7% y/y. Subsequently, the pair rallied around 60 pips, before running into some stiff resistance at 1.2530, and now sits at a precarious position. The initial indications this morning aren't necessarily positive so we could see a bearish move for the pair over the next few sessions.

In particular, the charts are relatively illuminating for the Cable especially given the sharp run up that has occurred over the past month. However, price action has definitely run into a sharp area of resistance at 1.2530, and momentum has now stalled largely leaving the pair exposed with little fundamental news left in the trading week. In addition, the RSI Oscillator is nearing overbought levels and the pressure is building for either a downside correction, or a period of sideways consolidation.

However, at the time of writing, price action is still above the 100 day MA which lends a little credence to another challenge to resistance. However, most of the other indicators are suggesting a return to the mean given that the pair, on the daily time frame, is very definitely trending between the 1.20 and 1.26 handles. This may especially be the case given that the RSI Oscillator is nearing overbought levels.

In addition, the pair is fundamentally exposed as we head into the final few trading sessions of the week given the lack of UK economic data due for release. Subsequently, the market is likely to be primarily focusing upon the U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI. In particular, the Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to provide a strong result at 54.2 and is likely to provide some buoyancy to the greenback.

Ultimately, the time has come for a pullback from the Cable given all of the above mentioned factors. Subsequently, expect to see the venerable pair trading below the 1.25 handle with a likely range somewhere around the 1.2430 mark in the days ahead.

EUR/USD

European currencies saw little action this Thursday, holding within familiar ranges amid a scarce macroeconomic calendar and the absence of a major catalyst. The EUR/USD pair settled at 1.0787, pretty much unchanged daily basis, having however, set a lower low and a lower high daily basis. The market seems to have made a pause as the 'Trump trade' is undergoing a major test, given that the Obamacare repeal bill is in the Congress. A positive vote from policy makers, may revive investors hopes, somehow paving the way for policies related with tax cuts and growth.

Germany releases the GFK consumer confidence survey for April early London, showing that sentiment eased as the survey resulted at 9.8 from previous 10.0, with rising inflation denting buying power. In the US, weekly unemployment claims rose in the week to March 17th to the highest in seven weeks, printing 258K against expectations of 240K and previous revised 243K. New Home Sales, on the other hand, surprised to the upside, rising by 6.1% in February to a seasonally adjusted total of 0.592M. Attention this Friday will center in March preliminary PMIs for the EU, expected to show that both, the manufacturing and the services sectors, remain in the growth path.

The upward strength continued fading in the short term, as in the 4 hours chart, the price is now stuck around a still bullish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators have turned lower, with the Momentum already below the 100 level and the RSI around 54, while selling interest around 1.0820 remains strong. Still, the price needs to accelerate below 1.0765 to begin a downward corrective move, while only below 1.0700 bears will retake the lead. At this point, the pair needs to surpass 1.0828, February monthly high, to confirm a bullish extension towards 1.0870, December high.

Support levels: 1.0765 1.0730 1.0700

Resistance levels: 1.0830 1.0870 1.0910

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair advanced up to 111.57 at the beginning of the day, as Wall Street closed mixed, but fell afterwards to a fresh 2017 low of 110.62, to settle at 111.00. Asian share markets closed with modest gains, while European ones saw a dull session, hovering around their opening levels and settling not far away from them. US equities edged modestly higher, but that was not enough to help the pair bounce. An early recovery met strong selling interest on an approach to the 111.60 resistance from where the pair resumed its decline, indicating that speculators are now preferring to sell the rallies. Japan will releases its leading index and the March preliminary manufacturing PMI, expected at 53.5 from previous 53.3. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators remain within oversold territory, with the RSI indicator heading modestly lower at 27, while the 100 and 200 SMAs slowly turning south far above the current level. Renewed selling pressure below 110.70 should open doors for a continued decline towards 109.90, the 50% retracement of the November/December rally.

Support levels: 110.70 110.30 109.90

Resistance levels: 111.15 111.60 112.00

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair managed to advance up to 1.2530, ending the day a few pips below the level as the Pound found support on strong February Retail Sales data. Sales rose by 1.4% in the month, while compared to a year earlier, sales jumped 3.7%, well above the 2.6% or the previous revised 1.0%. Excluding fuel, sales rose 1.3% MoM, following two months of decline, taking the year-on-year rate to 4.1%. The CBI survey released later in the day, showed that sales volumes grew at a steady pace in the year to March, and slightly faster than expected, with 44% of retailers saying that sales volumes were up on a year ago, whilst 35% said they were down, giving a balance of +9%, above the 5% expected but matching previous month's reading. The pair maintains its positive tone, although the intraday advance stalled a few pips below a major resistance, the 23.6% retracement of the January's rally at 1.2540, now the level to surpass to confirm additional gains. In the 4 hours chart the price is well above a bullish 20 SMA, but technical indicators are retreating from overbought levels, reaffirming the case for the need of a bullish breakout of the mentioned Fibonacci resistance before considering going long.

Support levels: 1.2500 1.2460 1.2425

Resistance levels: 1.2540 1.2585 1.2620

GOLD

Gold prices' advance extended for a sixth consecutive day, as investors continued trading against the greenback. Spot reached a daily high of $1,253.20 a troy ounce, its highest February 28th before pulling back to end the day flat at 1,242.70. The retracement came as a consequence of sharp declines in many other metals, and as the Dollar Index posted a modest recovery, alongside with US Treasury yields. Investors are now waiting for the US Congress decision over the healthcare bill to decide whether to keep buying the commodity or not. In the meantime, the daily chart shows that the price was unable to settle above the 200 DMA, but continues pressuring it for a third consecutive day. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart continues heading north well above the 100 level, whilst the RSI indicator turned flat around 62, indicating fading buying interest, although not enough to confirm a bearish correction from current levels. In the 4 hours chart, the price holds above a strongly bullish 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators are retreating from overbought levels, still well above their mid-lines. A downward corrective move can extend down to 1,230.00 without affecting the bullish trend, but a break below this last will turn the risk towards the downside.

Support levels: 1,242.80 1,236.80 1,230.10

Resistance levels: 1,251.30 1,263.80 1,272.80

WTI CRUDE

Crude oil prices resumed their declines this Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate futures down to $47.66 a barrel, as the focus remained on the persistent global glut. Hopes that the OPEC would deal with an oversupply market, boosted prices last November, but after three months into the output cut, the commodity has gave back most of the gains achieved after the announcement, amid increasing US production, which led American stockpiles to record highs. The daily chart for WTI shows that the 20 DMA extended its slide far above the current level, having crossed below the 100 DMA and pointing to cross below the 200 DMA, this last at 49.30, whilst technical indicators are neutral-to-bearish within oversold readings, all of which supports further slides. In the 4 hours chart, a bearish 20 SMA rejected an early advance, whilst technical indicators have extended their declines within negative territory, in line with the longer term perspective.

Support levels: 47.00 46.40 45.80

Resistance levels: 48.10 48.70 49.30

DJIA

After spending most of the day above their opening levels, US indexes turned lower ahead of the close, with all of the three major indexes closing marginally lower. Stocks fell in the last minutes of trading on news indicating that the vote of the Obamacare repeal bill was delayed, as the GOP struggles for support. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 4 points and settled at 20,656.58. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 5,817.69, down by 4 points, whilst the S&P lost 0.11% to end at 2,345.96. Within the DJIA, Nike was the best performer, up 2.63%, followed by El du Pont that added 1.62%. UnitedHealth Group led decliners, shedding 1.19%, followed by Travelers Cos that closed 0.74% lower. Daily basis, the Dow technical picture is bearish, as the index remained well below its 20 DMA, whilst technical indicators held within negative territory, with the RSI now turning south around 41, anticipating some further slides for this Friday. In the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA maintains a sharp bearish slope and is about to cross below the 200 SMA above the current level, whilst the Momentum indicator has managed to correct some within negative territory, but the RSI indicator holds around 36, also maintaining the risk towards the downside.

Support levels: 20,610 20,578 20,526

Resistance levels: 20,707 20,742 20,783

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 managed to recover some ground this Thursday, as European shares surged, following the positive lead from Asia. The Footsie closed the day 15 points or 0.22% higher at 7,340.71. Next shares led the advance, closing the day up 8.08%, despite reporting their first fall in annual profits in eight years. The news was no surprise, as the retailed warned on profits last January. Marks & Spencer followed, adding 3.82%. Mining-related equities were the worst performers, as base metals came under pressure, alongside with pharmaceuticals, ahead of the US Obamacare repeal bill vote. Randgold Resources was the worst performer, down 2.74%, followed by Glencore, down 2.40%, and Hikma Pharmaceuticals that shed 2.22%. The daily chart for the London benchmark shows that it held below its 20 DMA, with an advance up to it, at 7,346 being quickly reverted, and technical indicators holding within bearish territory, with limited downward scope. In the 4 hours chart, attempts to advance were contained by a horizontal 100 SMA, whilst the 20 SMA turned lower far above it, and technical indicators turned back south within bearish territory, all of which favors additional declines on a break below 7,301, the weekly low.

Support levels: 7,301 7,262 7,239

Resistance levels: 7,346 7,384 7,429

DAX

The German DAX settled at 12,039.68, up 137 points or 1.14%, with all European equity benchmarks closing in the green. Financials led the advance as lenders borrowed more than expected under the ECB's TLTRO program, up to 233.5 billion euros for four-year loans, in anticipation of a continued rise in lending. Within the DAX, Deutsche Lufthansa was the best performer, rising 3.23%, followed by RWE AG that added 2.40%. Volkswagen was the worst performer, shedding 0.91%, while Infineon Technologies shed 0.29%, as well as Deutsche Bank. The index eased in after-hours trading, barely holding above the 12,000 level, and with the daily chart showing that the bearish tone seen earlier this week has eased, given that the index settled above a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst technical indicators turned higher, now entering positive territory. In the 4 hours chart, however, the upward potential seems limited, as the benchmark is unable to clearly break above a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicator turned lower after failing to overcome its mid-line, and the RSI indicator also retreated around its mid-line.

Support levels: 11,957 11,895 11,851

Resistance levels: 12,045 12,091 12,139

STOCKS

Almost all equities globally has bounced yesterday as expected. Some stable movement is possible in the near term with attempts of rising further in the coming sessions.

Dow (20656.58, -0.02%) is holding above the channel support on the daily and if it continues to hold, we may see the index inch up towards 21000-21200 in the near term.

Dax (12039.68, +1.14%) has also bounced in line with expectation and could re0test resistance near 12200 in the coming sessions before again coming off towards 11900. The channel on the daily candles holds good for now.

Nikkei (19275.18, +0.99%) bounced from levels near 19000 and could move up towards 19400 in the near term. Overall the broad 19600-18600 region is expected to hold for at least a couple of weeks.

Shanghai (3248.52, 0%) is in a clear channel uptrend and while it holds above 3225-3250, near term looks bullish. There is enough room on the upside towards 3300 and even higher for the long term.

Nifty (9086.30, +0.62%) has bounced back from support on the 3-day candles and while that holds, it could possibly re-test 9100-9150 in the near term.

COMMODITIES

Gold (1243) was almost unchanged and trading within a narrow range of 1240-51. We continue to look for a close below 1240 levels in the near term to take fresh sell positions. But before that it may spend a few sessions within the 1240-55 regions.

Silver (17.57) has tested its pivot at 17.45-48 since last few sessions but unable to gather momentum to close higher. Overall we need to wait for confirmation for immediate directional clarity.

Copper (2.62) is trading within a range of 2.57-2.70. Only above 2.70, higher resistances of 2.80 can come into consideration. In the medium term 2.55-57 are going to be a strong support now and a close below that could open up 2.49 levels respectively.

Brent (50.57) and WTI (47.34) has fallen in line with our expectation. Considering the short term oversold sate, we may see some profit taking rally towards their respective resistances of 52-53 for Brent and 48.50-49.80 for WTI respectively. But the trend is still bearish. Any corrective bounce may face selling pressure at the higher levels.

FOREX

The Republicans have delayed the voting on the health care bill which may take place tonight. The markets will determine the capability of the Trump administration to deliver its pro-growth promises from the outcome of this vote and the direction of the Dollar may depend on that.

Dollar Index (99.98) is in a minor bounce with the major trend remaining down. Another leg to the downside still may be left which may take it down to 99.00-98.50, the major support. Resistance remains unchanged at 100.50-70.

Euro (1.0762) has weakened slightly and now is close to the immediate support at 1.0750 below which it may drop to 1.0700-1.0670. Downside possibilities can’t be discarded until a break above 1.0830-50 is seen.

Dollar-Yen (111.29) has made a low at 110.59, not too far away from our target of 110.00 but no sign of any bottoming action is visible yet. Some sideways consolidation in the band of 110.50-112.00 may take place for the next few sessions, which may resolve to the downside.

Pound (1.2489) is digesting its recent gains but the higher target of 1.2650-1.2700 remains unchanged with support coming at 1.2440-20.

Aussie (0.7616) is close to the near term support of 0.7600-0.7585 which may hold and keep the currency in the range of 0.7600-0.7750 for a few sessions more.

Dollar Rupee (65.52) may end the week in the narrow range of 65.30-60 and may come out of the range next week only.

INTEREST RATES

The US yields have paused and is trying to rise from current levels. The 5yr (1.97%), 10YR (2.44%) and the 30Yr (3.04%) are trading slightly higher and could move up in the near term.

The US-Japan 10YR (2.37%) has bounced in line with our expectation and while it tries to move up in the near term, it could pull up Dollar-Yen along with itself.

The Japanese 5Yr (-0.15%) has risen from support just below current levels and could move higher towards -0.10% in the near term. The 10yr 90.0750 and the 30Yr (0.84%) have also slightly risen and could move higher in the near term.