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For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD marginally rose against the JPY and closed at 114.93.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 114.80, with the USD trading 0.11% lower against the JPY from yesterday's close.

The pair is expected to find support at 114.52, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 114.23. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 115.03, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 115.25.

Going ahead, Japan's industrial production data for January, set to release tomorrow, will be on investor's radar.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD declined 0.2% against the CHF and closed at 1.0072.

On the economic front, Switzerland’s total sight deposits advanced to a level of CHF555.4 billion in the week ended 10 March, from CHF553.4 billion in the previous week

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.0072, with the USD trading flat against the CHF from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.0046, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0020. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0107, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0142.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the USD slightly declined against the CAD and closed at 1.3450.

In the Asian session, at GMT0400, the pair is trading at 1.3444, with the USD trading a tad lower against the CAD from yesterday’s close.

The pair is expected to find support at 1.3426, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3407. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3465, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3485.

The currency pair is showing convergence with its 20 Hr moving average and trading below its 50 Hr moving average.

Weekly

• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 5 Sep 2016
• Trend bias: Down

Daily

• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long black candlestick
• Time of formation: 24 Jun 2016
• Trend bias: Down

GBP/USD – 1.2190

As cable has recovered after falling to 1.2135 last week, suggesting initial consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2270) is likely, however, reckon resistance at 1.2301 would limit upside and bring another decline, a break of said support at 1.2135 would extend recent decline from 1.2706 to 1.2100. Looking ahead, below 1.2100 would signal the rebound from 1.1986 low has ended, then further fall to 1.2050-60 would follow, however, still reckon downside would be limited and price should stay well above support at 1.1986, bring rebound later.

On the upside, although initial recovery to 1.2300-05 cannot be ruled out, reckon said previous support at 1.2347 would turn into resistance and cap cable’s upside, bring another decline later. A daily close above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2359) would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.2400 but only a sustained breach above the upper Kumo (now at 1.2453) would signal the fall from 1.2706 has ended instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.2500 but price should falter well below resistance at 1.2570.

Recommendation: Sell at 1.2340 for 1.2140 with stop above 1.2440. 

On the weekly chart, although cable extended recent decline to 1.2135 last week, the subsequent recovery suggests consolidation above this level would be seen and recovery to 1.2299-1.2301 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and previous resistance) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon upside would be limited to previous support at 1.2347 (now resistance) and bring another decline later. A break of 1.2135 would extend the fall from 1.2706 to 1.2100, however, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.1986 is correct, downside should be limited and reckon 1.2050 would hold, bring another rebound later. In the event cable drops below support at 1.1986, this would shift risk back to downside for medium term downtrend to extend weakness to 1.1900-10, then 1.1850.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.2300 cannot be ruled out, renewed selling interest should emerge around previous support at 1.2347 (now resistance) and bring another decline later. Above 1.2400 would defer and risk rebound to 1.2479 but break there is needed to suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.2570, however, a weekly close above there is needed to signal the retreat from 1.2706 has ended, bring further gain to 1.2650-60, then retest of 1.2706. 

Weekly

• Last Candlesticks pattern: Doji
• Time of formation: 26 Sep 2016
• Trend bias: Sideways

Daily

• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 25 Oct 2016
• Trend bias: Near term up

USD/CHF – 1.0071

Although the greenback rose to 1.0171 last week, the subsequent retreat suggests top is possibly formed here and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0038), however, break of previous support at 1.0009 is needed to add credence to this view and bring further fall to another previous support at 0.9967. Looking ahead, a daily close below this level is needed to suggest the rebound from 0.9861 has ended and bring further fall to 0.9935-40 but said support at 0.9861 should hold. A drop below this level would revive bearishness and extend erratic decline from 1.0344 top for retracement of early upmove to 0.9850-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9550-1.0344) and possibly towards 0.9800.

On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 1.0100-10 cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.0140-45 would limit upside and bring another decline later. A break of said last week’s high at 1.0171 would signal the erratic rise from 0.9861 (Jan’s low) is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.0195-00, having said that, reckon key resistance at 1.0248 would cap upside and bring retreat later. Only a daily close above this level would signal recent correction from 1.0344 top has ended at 0.9861, bring further gain to 1.0300 and later retest of 1.0344 which is is likely to hold from here.

Recommendation: Sell at 1.0110 for 0.9910 with stop above 1.0200.

On the weekly chart, as dollar has retreated after rising briefly to 1.0171, a shooting star bearish candlestick pattern was formed and if this week ends with a black candlestick, this would suggest the rebound from 0.9861 low has ended there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness to 1.0009, however, only a weekly close below support at 0.9967 would add credence to this view, bring test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9947), break there would extend fall to 0.9900, then retest of 0.9861. A break of this level would revive near term bearishness for the fall from 1.0344 to bring retracement of early upmove to 0.9850-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and possibly towards the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9722), however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.9690-00 and price should stay well above support at 0.9550.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.0100-10 and price should falter below said resistance at 1.0171, bring another retreat later. Above said resistance at 1.0171 would extend gain to 1.0195-00 but price should falter below key resistance at 1.0248, bring further choppy trading. A sustained breach above this level would signal the retreat from 1.0344 has ended, bring further gain to 1.0335-44 resistance area but break there is needed to signal early upmove has resumed for headway to 1.0400-10 and later 1.0500.

USD/CHF - 1.0094

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A

Trend                                    : Sideways

Tenkan-Sen level                  : 1.0083

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.0089

Ichimoku cloud top                 : 1.0118

Ichimoku cloud bottom              : 1.0099

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite yesterday’s marginal fall to 1.0060, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.0065 and current rebound suggest further consolidation above yesterday’s low would be seen and gain to 1.0110-20 cannot be ruled out, however, a break of resistance at 1.0142 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.0171 (last week’s high) has ended, bring another rise towards this level later.

On the downside, below said support at 1.0060 would signal the fall from 1.0171 top is still in progress and may bring further fall to 1.0035-40 but support at 1.0009 should remain intact, bring rebound later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

GBP/USD - 1.2126

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                                 : Near term down

Tenkan-Sen level                 : 1.2171

Kijun-Sen level                    : 1.2188

Ichimoku cloud top              : 1.2168

Ichimoku cloud bottom        : 1.2165

Original strategy :

Bought at 1.2215, stopped at 1.2180

Position : - Long at 1.2215

Target :  -

Stop : - 1.,2180

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Current selloff dampened our near term bullishness and signals recent decline has resumed, hence downside risk remains for further fall to 1.2100, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2070 and reckon 1.2040-50 would hold from here, sterling may stage another rebound from there later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2188) would suggest an intra-day low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.2215 but break there is needed to confirm and bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 1.2251.

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EUR/USD - 1.0643

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 1.0652

Kijun-Sen level                  : 1.0677

Ichimoku cloud top             : 1.0665

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 1.0613

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : - Long at 1.0640

Target :  - 1.0740

Stop : - 1.0610

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : - Long at 1.0640

Target :  - 1.0740

Stop : - 1.0610

Although the single currency has slipped again today and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited and as long as previous resistance at 1.0615 (now support) holds, mild upside bias remains for another rise, above 1.0680 would suggest the retreat from 1.06714 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend the erratic rise from 1.0493 low to 1.0740-45 (1.5 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525) but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0760 (1.618 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525).

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.0640. Below previous resistance at 1.0615 would abort and signal top has been formed, risk further fall to 1.0575-80 first. 

Market movers today

We expect to see a continued improvement in the German ZEW indicator, which is due to be released today. Later, US producer prices are due out but are unlikely to have much impact on markets.

The main event in the Scandi markets will be the Swedish inflation data for February – it should be in line with the Riksbank's projections.

Selected market news

We saw some modest gains in the US equity markets ahead of the string of central bank meetings this week (US, UK, Japan and Switzerland due this week). The US government bond market came under pressure given a string of corporate bond issuance yesterday, where a number of corporate bonds issuers came to the market in the 10Y and 30Y segment. This led to pressure on the US Treasury curve from the long end of the curve.

It has been a mixed picture in the Asian equity markets this morning, while oil prices has rebounded modestly after having fallen over the past week. There have been modest movements in the major FX crosses this morning. The Norwegian krone rebounded yesterday versus the euro as it was close to the 9.20 level. This morning it trading at the 9.12 level. We expect further strengthening of NOK versus the euro.

The UK continues its path towards Brexit after the vote in parliament yesterday. However, Scotland is looking for a new independence vote in 2018 or 2019. Hence, the pressure for a weaker sterling is expected to persist for now.

USD/JPY - 114.96

Most recent candlesticks pattern   : N/A

Trend                      : Near term up

Tenkan-Sen level              : 114.87

Kijun-Sen level                  : 114.73

Ichimoku cloud top             : 114.94

Ichimoku cloud bottom      : 114.94

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback recovered after falling to 114.48 yesterday and minor consolidation is in store, reckon upside would be limited to 115.15-20 and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 115.51 top (last week’s high) to bring at least a retracement of recent upmove to 114.26 support but downside should be limited to 114.00-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-115.51) and price should stay well above strong support at 113.56-61), bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. Above 115.15-20 would suggest an intra-day low is formed, bring a stronger rebound but still reckon said resistance at 115.51 would cap upside. Only break there would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to previous resistance at 115.62, then towards 115.90-00.