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EUR/CHF Renewed bearish pressures.

EUR/CHF's bullish pressures have increased sharply. Resistance given at 1.0762 (27/12/2016 high) has been broken. Anyway, the mediumterm pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Temporary surges seem the new normal for the CHF.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Targeting resistance at 123.31.

EUR/JPY's demand has rejuvenated . Hourly resistance at 121.34 (10/02/2017 high) has been broken. Strong resistance is given at a distance at 123.31 (27/01/2017 high). Expected to show further increase.

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Heading higher.

EUR/GBP is pushing higher. Strong resistance given at 0.8854 (15/01/2017 high) is at stake. We rule out further weakness towards supports given at 0.8450 (03/01/2016 low) and at 0.8304 (05/12/2016). Expected to further strengthen.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CHF is still riding within uptrend channel and is on its way to monitor support implied by lower bound of the uptrend channel. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to consolidate.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015

USD/CAD Bearish consolidation.

USD/CAD's bullish pressures are definitely on after breaking key resistance at 1.3353 (20/01/2017 high). Yet, as long as this resistance was not broken (20/01/2017 high), bullishness was limited. Expected to see further upside potential for the pair.

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Ready for another leg lower.

AUD/USD's technical structure is still negative. The road is wide-open for further weakness towards support given at 0.7494 (19/01/2017 low). Key resistance is given at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high).

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Setting higher lows.

EUR/USD continues to strengthen despite ongoing bearish consolidation. Hourly resistance given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) has been broken while hourly support at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper increase towards resistance at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high).

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Weakening.

GBP/USD continues to edge lower despite ongoing consolidation since the pair has broken support given at 1.2254 (19/01/2017 low). The road is wide-open for further decline. Hourly resistance is now given at 1.2300 (05/03/2017 high).

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Monitoring resistance at 115.62.

USD/JPY is pushing higher towards key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 113.56 (06/03/2017 low). Expected to push higher.

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

FTSE remains supported and extended recovery from 7254 correction, ticks ahead of 7382 record high.

Fresh weakness of pound and uncertainty on nearing start of official UK/EU divorce helped the index to almost fully retrace near-term correction and look for fresh upside action.

Rise in mining stocks also helped index's rally.

Ascending 10SMA continues to track recovery and offers immediate support at 7345, ahead of Monday's low at 7331 and daily Tenkan-sen at 7318, which is expected to contain stronger downticks.

Upper targets above 7382 lay at 7441/61 (Fibo 138.2% and 161.8% projections), with extension towards 7511 (200% projection of the upleg from 7254) seen on stronger bullish acceleration.

Res: 7382, 7400, 7431, 7461
Sup: 7356, 7345, 7333, 7318

News and Events:

Chinese data suggests sustained growth

China's annual NPC (National People's Congress) 2017 economic objectives, which included a deceleration of GDP growth target to 6.5% (below 2016 6.5-7.0% target) grabbed the headlines. Yet rather than an indication of weaker outlook this conservative (and mature) number indicates an emphasis on stability rather than boastfulness through economic acceleration. In addition, February FX reserves point to a reversal of capital outflow, temporarily halting doomsday predictions.

January/February industrial production surprised slightly to the upside, printing at 6.3%y/y versus 6.2% expected and 6.0% previous reading. Fixed asset investment accelerated substantially and surged 8.9%y/y, widely above median forecast of 8.3% and previous reading of 8.1%. The only blot on this otherwise encouraging landscape is the retail sales gauge which decelerated to 9.5% (10.6% expected and 10.4% previous). However, in our opinion, the data provided further evidence that China is building towards a strong Q1. On a side note, the softening of rhetoric by US president Trump suggests that a trade war or nation specific traffic is unlikely (although a less punitive trade policy are highly probability). However, as with all populist leaders, when approval ratings sag they resort back to hardliner issues that got them into power in the first place.

On the FX side, after losing more than 1% against the USD since mid-January the Chinese yuan took breather. This morning the renminbi was trading at around 6.91, while off-shore the yuan was trading at around 6.90. We do not expected the yuan to weakness against the USD, at least not at the same pace as last year.

Moody's estimates growing Frexit risk

The credit rating agency estimates that a victory of Marine Le Pen, even though unlikely is not unconceivable. The National Front President would drive France towards a referendum on the exit of the European Union. Moody's warns that a return to the Franc would push France to default. Government bonds should be converted into Franc and the Franc would very likely be depreciated.

However we believe that the nightmare promised by Moody's seems a bit exaggerated especially when looking towards other European's countries direction such as Greece. This country does not need to exit the Eurozone to be in big trouble. Indeed Greece is living on never-ending austerity policies.

Whatever happens at the French elections, the new president will inherit a country with a ratio debt-to-GDP over than 100%. A Frexit would also push other European countries' bonds' yields and grades higher and weaken the single currency.

Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):

• Feb CPI Core MoM, last -1,50% EUR / 08:00
• Feb CPI Core YoY, exp 1,00%, last 1,10% EUR / 08:00
• Feb F CPI MoM, exp -0,30%, last -0,30% EUR / 08:00
• Feb F CPI YoY, exp 3,00%, last 3,00% EUR / 08:00
• Feb F CPI EU Harmonised MoM, exp -0,30%, last -0,30% EUR / 08:00
• Feb F CPI EU Harmonised YoY, exp 3,00%, last 3,00% EUR / 08:00
• Feb CPI MoM, exp 0,60%, last -0,70% SEK / 08:30
• Feb CPI YoY, exp 1,70%, last 1,40% SEK / 08:30
• Feb CPI CPIF MoM, exp 0,60%, last -0,70% SEK / 08:30
• Feb CPI CPIF YoY, exp 1,90%, last 1,60% SEK / 08:30
• Feb CPI Level, exp 319,54, last 317,5 SEK / 08:30
• Jan Mining Production MoM, last 0,70%, rev -0,30% ZAR / 09:30
• Jan Gold Production YoY, last -7,10%, rev -7,60% ZAR / 09:30
• Jan Platinum Production YoY, last -15,10% ZAR / 09:30
• Jan Mining Production YoY, exp 1,20%, last -1,90%, rev -3,10% ZAR / 09:30
• Jan Industrial Production SA MoM, exp 1,30%, last -1,60% EUR / 10:00
• Jan Industrial Production WDA YoY, exp 0,90%, last 2,00% EUR / 10:00
• Mar ZEW Survey Current Situation, exp 78, last 76,4 EUR / 10:00
• Mar ZEW Survey Expectations, last 17,1 EUR / 10:00
• Mar ZEW Survey Expectations, exp 13, last 10,4 EUR / 10:00
• Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism, exp 105,6, last 105,9 USD / 10:00
• Jan Manufacturing Prod NSA YoY, exp 1,60%, last -2,00% ZAR / 11:00
• Jan Manufacturing Prod SA MoM, exp 1,50%, last 0,30% ZAR / 11:00
• Feb CPI YoY, exp 3,60%, last 3,17% INR / 12:00
• Feb PPI Final Demand MoM, exp 0,10%, last 0,60% USD / 12:30
• Feb PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, exp 0,20%, last 0,40% USD / 12:30
• Feb PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, exp 0,20%, last 0,20% USD / 12:30
• Feb Teranet/National Bank HPI MoM, last 0,50% CAD / 12:30
• Feb PPI Final Demand YoY, exp 1,90%, last 1,60% USD / 12:30
• Feb Teranet/National Bank HP Index, last 200,34 CAD / 12:30
• Feb PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, exp 1,50%, last 1,20% USD / 12:30
• Feb Teranet/National Bank HPI YoY, last 13,00% CAD / 12:30
• Feb PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, last 1,60% USD / 12:30
• Jan Trade Balance, exp 11.6b, last 11.8b RUB / 13:00
• Jan Exports, exp 24.6b, last 31.1b RUB / 13:00
• Jan Imports, exp 13.5b, last 19.3b RUB / 13:00
• 4Q BoP Current Account Balance NZD, exp -2.425b, last -4.891b NZD / 21:45
• 4Q Current Account GDP Ratio YTD, exp -2,70%, last -2,90% NZD / 21:45
• 4Q BoP Current Account Balance, exp -$12.00b, last -$3.40b INR / 22:00
• ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt EUR / 23:00
• Feb Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY, exp -4,20%, last -9,20% CNY / 23:00
• Feb Budget Balance YTD, exp -350.0b, last -23.4b RUB / 23:00
• Feb Tax Collections, exp 93663m, last 137392m BRL / 23:00

The Risk Today:

EUR/USD continues to strengthen despite ongoing bearish consolidation. Hourly resistance given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) has been broken while hourly support at 1.0493 (22/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper increase towards resistance at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD continues to edge lower despite ongoing consolidation since the pair has broken support given at 1.2254 (19/01/2017 low). The road is wide-open for further decline. Hourly resistance is now given at 1.2300 (05/03/2017 high). The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY is pushing higher towards key resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). Hourly support can be found at 113.56 (06/03/2017 low). Expected to push higher. We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF is still riding within uptrend channel and is on its way to monitor support implied by lower bound of the uptrend channel. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to consolidate. In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CHF - 1.0083

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Despite yesterday’s marginal fall to 1.0060, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 1.0065 and current rebound suggest further consolidation above yesterday’s low would be seen and gain to 1.0110-20 cannot be ruled out, however, a break of resistance at 1.0142 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.0171 (last week’s high) has ended, bring another rise towards this level later.

On the downside, below said support at 1.0060 would signal the fall from 1.0171 top is still in progress and may bring further fall to 1.0035-40 but support at 1.0009 should remain intact, bring rebound later. As near term outlook is still mixed, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime.

The pair eases after two-day recovery was capped by daily Tenkan-sen at 0.7590 yesterday, shifting near-term focus lower again.

Fresh weakness pressures strong support at 0.7531 (55/200 SMA Golden cross), increasing risk of renewed attempt through strong 0.7531/0.7494 support zone (defined by 200 and 100SMA's).

Despite strong bullish signals after pullback from 0.7739 was contained by rising daily cloud, fresh weakness suggests that corrective phase is not over and keeps the downside at risk.

Mixed readings of daily chart studies show no clear direction, with break through pivots at 0.7584/0.7614 (upper) or 0.7531/0.7494 (lower) needed for stronger direction signals.

Fresh strength of the US dollar in anticipation of tomorrow's rate hike, however, keeps near-term bias shifted lower for now.

Res: 0.7590, 0.7614, 0.7643, 0.7700
Sup: 0.7531, 0.7519, 0.7494, 0.7448

GBP/USD - 1.2125

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Current selloff dampened our near term bullishness and signals recent decline has resumed, hence downside risk remains for further fall to 1.2100, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2070 and reckon 1.2040-50 would hold from here, sterling may stage another rebound from there later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2188) would suggest an intra-day low is formed instead, risk rebound to 1.2215 but break there is needed to confirm and bring a stronger rebound towards resistance at 1.2251.

EUR/USD - 1.0643

Original strategy  :

Bought at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : - Long at 1.0640

Target :  - 1.0740

Stop : - 1.0610

New strategy  :

Hold long entered at 1.0640, Target: 1.0740, Stop: 1.0610

Position : - Long at 1.0640

Target :  - 1.0740

Stop : - 1.0610

Although the single currency has slipped again today and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited and as long as previous resistance at 1.0615 (now support) holds, mild upside bias remains for another rise, above 1.0680 would suggest the retreat from 1.06714 has ended, bring retest of this level, break there would extend the erratic rise from 1.0493 low to 1.0740-45 (1.5 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525) but loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.0760 (1.618 times projection of 1.0495-1.0640 measuring from 1.0525).

In view of this, we are holding on to our long position entered at 1.0640. Below previous resistance at 1.0615 would abort and signal top has been formed, risk further fall to 1.0575-80 first. 

USD/JPY - 115.10

New strategy  :

Stand aside

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

Although the greenback recovered after falling to 114.48 yesterday and minor consolidation is in store, reckon upside would be limited to 115.15-20 and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 115.51 top (last week’s high) to bring at least a retracement of recent upmove to 114.26 support but downside should be limited to 114.00-05 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 111.69-115.51) and price should stay well above strong support at 113.56-61), bring rebound later.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside for now. A firm break above 115.15-20 would suggest an intra-day low is formed, bring a stronger rebound but still reckon said resistance at 115.51 would cap upside. Only break there would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to previous resistance at 115.62, then towards 115.90-00.