Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0632; (P) 1.0676 (R1) 1.0755; More.....

EUR/USD's rise from 1.0339 is still in progress for 1.0872 resistance and possibly above. Nonetheless, such rise is seen as a corrective move. Below 1.0453 will argue that it's completed and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0339 support. Break there will extend the larger down trend towards parity.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1990; (P) 1.2037; (R1) 1.2089; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 1.1986 continues. Such rise is seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 1.1946. Thus, we'd expect strong resistance at 1.2774 to limit upside and bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2188 minor support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0086; (P) 1.0111; (R1) 1.0135; More.....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the downside for the moment. Rise from 0.9443 could have completed at 1.0342 already, after failing to sustain above 1.0327 key resistance. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.9443/9548 support zone. On the upside, above 1.0135 minor resistance will turn focus back to 1.0342 resistance intact.

In the bigger picture, rejection from 1.0327 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from there is still in progress. Fall from 1.0342 is seen as the third leg and retest of 0.9443/9548 support zone could be seen. But we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside. At this point, we're still extend the larger rally to resume later to 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.04; (P) 113.16; (R1) 113.72; More...

With 115.43 minor resistance intact, fall from 118.65 is expected to extend to 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 115.43 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

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Quick update: BoC left interest rate unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected.

Dollar recovers mildly today but remains the weakest major currency for the week so far. Consumer inflation data from US looks promising. Headline CPI rose 0.3% mom, 2.1% yoy in December, accelerated from November's 1.7% yoy. Core CPI rose 0.2% mom, 2.2% yoy, accelerated from prior month's 2.1% yoy. Both met market expectations. Technically, the declines in Dollar and treasury yields seem to be losing some momentum. But volatility is anticipated on Donald Trump's inauguration data this Friday. Meanwhile, it should be noted that after all the rhetorics and speculations, fed fund futures are still pricing in 67.8% change of another rate hike by Fed by June. That hasn't changed much in recent weeks.

Released from UK, jobless claims dropped -10.1k in December, better than expectation of 5.0k rise. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.8 in the three months to November. Total unemployment dropped -52k to 1.6m, lowest in more than a decade since 2006. Wages also showed solid growth with average weekly earnings increased 2.8% 3moy, comparing to expectation of 2.6% 3moy. Sterling pared back some of this week's gain and turned mixed for the week. Yesterday, UK prime minister Theresa May delivered her speech on Brexit. May indicated that UK would seek a free-trade deal with the EU outside the single market. That will be a new customs relationship for to negotiate trade deals around the world with "frictionless" cross-border trade. She seeks to have a a "phased implementation process" at the end of the two-year period of negotiations. Importantly, May confirmed that "the government will put the final deal... to a vote in both Houses of Parliament before it comes into force".

Elsewhere, Eurozone CPI was finalized at 1.1% yoy in December with core CPI at 0.9% yoy. German CPI was finalized at 1.7% Yoy in December. Australia Westpac consumer confidence rose 0.1% in January.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.04; (P) 113.16; (R1) 113.72; More...

With 115.43 minor resistance intact, fall from 118.65 is expected to extend to 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we'd expect strong support from there to contain downside and bring rebound. Above 115.43 minor resistance will turn bias to the upside for retesting 118.65 high. However, sustained break of 111.13 will argue that whole rise from 98.97 has completed and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 106.48 and below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Economic Indicators Update

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.57; (P) 137.36; (R1) 138.26; More...

A temporary low is in place at 136.44 and intraday bias in turned neutral first. Deeper decline is still expected with 142.16 support turned resistance intact. Whole corrective rise from 122.36 could have completed at 148.42. Below 136.44 will target 61.8% retracement of 122.36 to 148.42 at 132.31 and below. Though, above 142.16 will turn focus back to 148.42 high instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Upside is so far limited by 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.4 for setting the medium term range. At this point, we don't expect a break of 122.36 in near term and the corrective pattern would extend for a while.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.31; (P) 120.85; (R1) 121.17; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains cautiously on the downside for 118.45 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 109.20 to 124.08 at 118.39). Whole corrective rebound from 109.20 is likely completed at 124.08, ahead of 126.09 key resistance. Sustained break there will target 61.8% retracement at 114.88 and below. On the upside, above 122.41 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, outlook will now stay bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 109.20 medium term bottom are seen as part of a medium term corrective pattern from 149.76. There is prospect of another rise towards 126.09 key resistance level before completion. But even in that case, we'd expect strong resistance between 126.09 and 141.04 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will pave the way to retest 109.20.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8758; (P) 0.8804; (R1) 0.8847; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP is turned neutral with breach of 0.8646 minor support. Rise from 0.8303 is seen as a corrective move, the second leg of consolidation pattern from 0.9304. In case of another rise, break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9304 to 0.8303 at 0.8922 would be seen. But we'll be cautious on topping above 0.8922. On the downside, break of 0.8449 will likely start the third leg through 0.8303 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9304 are viewed as a medium term corrective pattern. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out yet. But we'd expect strong support around 55 weeks EMA (now at 0.8260) to contain downside. Overall, the corrective pattern would take some time to complete before long term up trend resumes at a later stage. Break of 0.9304 will pave the way to 0.9799 (2008 high).

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4117; (P) 1.4165; (R1) 1.4201; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook. At this point, there is no clear indication of resumption of larger decline yet. Above 1.4332 support turned resistance will turn bias back to the upside to extend recent sideway trading. Nonetheless, decisive break of 1.4072 low will extend the correction from 1.6587 towards next key support level 1.3671.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.6587 medium term top are viewed as a consolidative pattern. 50% retracement of 1.1602 to 1.6587 at 1.4095 was already met. While further fall cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong support above 1.3671 to contain downside and bring rebound. Up trend from 1.1602 should not be finished and will resume later. Break of 1.4880 resistance will be the first sign of resumption of up trend from 1.1602 and target retesting of 1.6587 resistance first.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0709; (P) 1.0721; (R1) 1.0743; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment as it's bounded in range of 1.0677/0762. Below 1.0677 will extend the corrective fall from 1.1198 and target 1.0620 key support level. On the upside, above 1.0762 will turn focus back to 1.0897 resistance. Decisive break there will suggest reversal and turn near term outlook bullish.

In the bigger picture, the decline from 1.1198 is seen as a corrective move. Such correction is still in progress and retest of 38.2% retracement of 0.9771 to 1.1198 at 1.0653 could be seen. Sustained trading below 1.0653 will target 50% retracement at 1.0485. Meanwhile, break of 1.0897 resistance will argue that the larger up trend is finally resuming for above 1.1198.

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