Monday February 27: Five things the markets are talking about

It's a nervy time for investors.

There are many factors that should be supporting riskier assets - improving economic outlooks in the U.S, Europe and China; U.S. corporate earnings and a gradual approach by the Fed to raise short-term interest rates and continued bond buying by the ECB and BoJ.

However, a lack of clarity on the timing and scope of promised pro-growth policies from Trumponomics, combined with uncertainty over whether the Fed will tighten rates at next months FOMC meeting has global equities losing momentum.

While in Europe, the Dutch parliamentary election on March 15 and the French first round presidential election on April 23 are also weighing on investor sentiment.

In the U.K, whispers of a second Scottish Referendum in the works in the weeks around Prime Minister Theresa May's triggering of the Brexit-inducing article 50 is battering GBP.

Note: The U.K. government is setting aside time for a Parliamentary battle to overturn changes May fears could be made to her draft Brexit law when it's debated in the House of Lords this week.

In the U.S, fixed income is parting ways with the stock market; the divergence is a warning signal that the Trump "reflation" trade is in trouble.

Despite all the markets negative undertones, all of this could change this week with President Trump's address to Congress Tuesday.

His speech will be scanned for guidance and insights on his proposed tax cuts and tax reform program, regulation, trade policy, and immigration.

1. Global equities see red

The rally in global equities that helped push their value above +$70T is losing momentum as investors grabble with political uncertainty and the Fed tightening timing.

In Japan, the Nikkei share average fell to 2-1/2 week low overnight as the yen strengthened (¥112.24) and as financial stocks dropped on lower U.S yields.

In China, blue chips posted their biggest single-day loss in two-months after the securities regulator vowed to step up their campaign against speculation and hinted about loosening its grip on new IPO's. The CSI300 index fell -0.8%, its sharpest drop since Dec. 23, while the Shanghai Composite Index also weakened -0.8%.

In Hong Kong, stocks fell for the third consecutive session, as the market's strong months-long rally showed signs of fatigue. The Hang Seng index dropped -0.2%, while the HK China Enterprises Index lost -0.8%.

In Europe, equity indices are trading mixed as the market await Trump's address to Congress on spending and tax plans tomorrow. Insurers are weighing down the FTSE 100 after the Chancellor amended the discount rate for Personal Insurance claims resulting in financial impacts on 2016 profits. However, the major banking stocks are providing support across the indices, while energy stocks are trading notably higher.

U.S equities are expected to open unchanged.

Indices: Stoxx50 +0.2% at 3,313, FTSE +0.2% at 7,260, DAX +0.1% at 11,819, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,842, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9,458, FTSE MIB +0.8% at 18,737, SMI -0.2% at 8,508, S&P 500 Futures flat

2. Oil prices confined to a tight range, gold up

Ahead of the U.S open, oil prices remain better bid, as the global supply glut appears to be easing, however, rising U.S production is expected to limit gains.

Brent crude oil has climbed +0.8% to +$56.44 per barrel, while U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added +0.7% to +$54.35 a barrel.

Note: Oil prices tumbled on Friday after data from the EIA showed U.S. crude inventories rose for a seventh straight week. Domestic stocks rose +564k barrels to +518.7m last week.

The market has been supported within a tight +$4 - $5 range since November, when OPEC agreed to cut production. Currently, the IEA puts OPEC's average compliance at a record +90% in January for the six-month deal.

Gold prices are holding firm this Monday, trading atop of its four-month highs hit in the previous session (+$1,260.10) as investors await more clarity on President Trump's economic policy. The metal jumped +1.8% last week for its fourth straight weekly advanced.

Note: Hedge funds have raised their net 'long' position in COMEX gold to the highest in nearly three-months during the week to Feb. 21 - by +14,482 to 82,464 lots.

3. FI trading diverged from equities

Last week's February FOMC minutes appeared to pull forward hopes for the next rate hike, but the market is not yet behind a rate move in March.

Current futures prices seems to suggest that most believe the best bet could be May or more likely June rate hike - when the Fed is currently scheduled to hold a post-meeting press conference.

On Friday, U.S Treasury yields were further pressured by a decline in German bunds. Political concerns and talk of an ECB-induced short squeeze sent the German 2-year yield towards -1%, while the U.S benchmark 10-Year yield, which peaked at +2.43%, slid to a week close out of + 2.32%.

In France, 10-year bond yields hit a one-month low this morning (-2.5 bps to +0.90%), pushing other euro zone sovereign yields lower (Spanish, Italian and Portuguese yields all fell between -3 and -5 bps) as polls show centrist Macron would easily beat far-right candidate Le Pen in May's presidential election runoff.

In Germany, the Treasury department set a 0% coupon on the new March 2019 Schatz - all recent Schatz series carry a similar coupon to reflect the low yield environment. The 10-year bund trades atop its historic lows (-0.19%).

4. Dollar in consolidation mood

Ahead of the U.S open, the 'mighty' USD is consolidating its recent losses before President Trump's first major policy address to Congress on Tuesday. Trump is expected to include some details of his infrastructure spending and tax plans, but any lack of fresh direction would disappoint capital markets and weigh again on the USD.

The pound (£1.2412) is again starting the week on the back foot, pressured by reports that the Scottish government could possibly be seeking another independence referendum next year. Europe's single unit, the EUR (higher by +0.3% to trade at €1.0590), despite regionalist "populist" threats (Netherland and France) remains confined to its recent tight trading range.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY has moved off its two-week lows from Asia (¥111.98) and is trading atop minor resistance ¥112.25 just ahead of the N.Y open.

5. Eurozone confidence in line with expectations

Data this morning showed that Eurozone economic sentiment was in line with expectations in February. The headline print edged up to 108.0 from 107.9 and printed its highest level since March 2011.

Analysts note, that since consumer sentiment was "in-line" with the flash estimate, would suggest that business confidence rose significantly. This is consistent with the results of other recent surveys, which suggest the eurozone economy has gained some fresh momentum in Q1, despite heightened uncertainty about future policies ahead of a series of key elections across the currency region.

However, consumer inflation expectations were unchanged, despite the January jump in inflation, which supports ECB caution in the face of an otherwise encouraging data flow.

The DAX Index has posted small losses in the Monday session. Currently, the DAX is trading at 11,909.50 points. On the release front, Eurozone Private Loans increased by 2.2%, above the estimate of 2.1%. M3 Money Supply edged lower to 4.9%, matching the forecast. On Tuesday, the US releases Preliminary GDP, with an estimate of 2.1%. As well, President Trump will address a joint session of Congress.

There was good news for the eurozone on Monday, as bank lending to eurozone households improved for a third straight month, rising to 2.2% in January. Lending has been moving upwards since 2015, but has only recently shown strong gains. This could be a sign that the ECB's stimulus program is finally bearing results. The central bank recently extended the QE program until December and is unlikely to end it earlier. Meanwhile, M3 Money Supply, which measures growth in the amount of money circulating in the eurozone, slowed to 4.8%, down from 5.0% a month earlier. This indicator is closely watched, as it often predicts economic activity.

In tandem with other stock markets, the DAX shrugged off the Federal Reserve's January minutes. There were no dramatic hints as to the timing of the next move by the Fed. The most important comment was that policymakers believe that a rate hike "fairly soon" could be appropriate in order to head off an overheated economy. The minutes indicated that Fed policymakers remain confident that the central bank will raise rates gradually, given the strong performance of the US economy. At the same time, the minutes noted uncertainty about President Trump's fiscal stimulus plan but little concern over the risk of inflation. So the million dollar question of when the Fed will press the rate trigger remains unanswered. Although pressure is slowly building towards a move by the Fed, there does not appear a sense of urgency to raise rates at the next meeting in March. According to the CME Group, the odds of a March hike are only at 17%, while the likelihood of a hike in either May or June stands above 40%.

President Trump's administration has endured a rough first month, beset by constant friction with the media and trouble filling in key cabinet positions. Trump will address Congress on Tuesday and the nation will be listening closely. Will we see the combative, outspoken Trump, or will he opt for a more conciliatory approach? In order to pass key legislation, Trump will have to make nice with lawmakers from both sides of the fence, and this speech would be an ideal time to offer a hand of cooperation rather than combat. The markets will be looking for some details about the administration's economic plan - if this is lacking, market sentiment could sour, dragging down the US dollar.

News and Events:

Ahead of key week for Donald Trump

Donald Trump is about to give the most important speech - at least for financial markets - since taking office. Indeed, investors are impatiently waiting for the President to finally explain his plan regarding fiscal spending and tax cuts. Equities across the globe have been rallying strong during the past few weeks, with US indices breaking record levels day after day. The next couple of days will therefore prove a veritable landmine for investors. On one hand, the market’s expectations are very high, however also high is the probability that Trump will strongly disappoint. On the other hand, investors will not hesitate to reload long positions should Trump delivers some bold measures.

Equities are going both ways at the start of the week as investors do not know which way the wind is going to blow. Asian regional markets were broadly trading in negative territory with the Nikkei down 0.91% while in mainland China the CSI 300 was down 0.89%. Across the Atlantic, European equities started the week on a firmer footing with the Euro Stoxx 50 rising 0.30%. Despite this reassuring picture, volatility is on the rise since Friday, suggesting that investors are getting nervous. In the FX markets, most currency pairs were trading sideways this morning.

Divergence in political risk

As Europe hurdles towards the Dutch elections on 15th March, the significance of politics to Eurozone outlook is materialising. EUR has failed to positively react to news of the French political alliance, which suggests a reduction in the probability of a presidential win for Le Pen, despite a narrowing of French vs. German sovereign yields. Lack of volatility indicates that risk aversion has increased as traders brace for a barrage of destabilizing events. We continue to search for opportunity to short the European political landscape and view short EURGBP as the clearest trade. We suspect that European political uncertainty is not merely comprised of singular events, but rather rolling negative sentiment which sees Europe paralysed by breakup fears. This fact will weigh on EUR even should results predict a positive outcome. In the US, the market has become more sensitive to positive economic surprises. Recent Q4 data has indicated strong momentum, despite weakness in consumption and fixed investment, while inflationary pressures continue to build. Manufacturing PMI is expected to increase to 56.4 from 55.9 while Service sentiment will also improve to 55.3 from 54.5. This week, the Notification Withdrawal Bill is expected to be delivered to the committee stage, potentially reducing uncertainty. EURGBP recovery bounce to 0.8535 (capped by 50d MA) should provide opportunity to reload short targeting of 0.8402 support (then 0.8305).

SNB’s intervention accelerates

Upside pressures on the Franc are very important. One euro can be exchanged for around 1.06 franc and the trend shows the euro keeps on weakening. This morning the total sights deposits showed a CHF 4.7 billion increase for last week to CHF 548.2 billion. The pace of the deposits’ growth has rarely been so high.

It is clear for us that the SNB is intervening. The European political uncertainties along with the European mixed economy are pushing the franc higher. One thing needs to be said, the Swiss economy resists well to those pressures. This Wednesday, the Manufacturing PMI is set to increase and on Thursday, the GDP will be released. Financial markets expects a growth increase of 0.4% q/q for the last quarter of 2016.

Those figures are showing that current levels of the Franc are nor hurting that much the Swiss economy. There is nonetheless once concern, the SNB FX reserves are now invested in foreign assets and in particular into US equities. The US rally is providing some unrealized gains to the SNB but the correlation towards the US economy may be dangerous at some point. Equity markets have been told to be undervalued.

The Risk Today:

EURUSD is trading sideways within a fifty-pip range below 1.0600. Hourly resistance is given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.0521 (15/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper consolidation. In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBPUSD is trading sideways within a fifty-pip range below 1.0600. Hourly resistance is given at 1.0679 (16/02/2017 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.0521 (15/02/2017 low). The technical structure suggests deeper consolidation. In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

USD/JPY's demand is fading after its increase from support given at 111.36 (28/11/2016 low). Bearish pressures arise around hourly resistance given at 115.62 (19/01/2016 high). The technical structure suggests further weakness around former resistance given at 112.57 (17/01/2017 low). We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

USD/CHF's short-term momentum is definitely bullish. The pair lies within an uptrend channel. Hourly resistance is implied by upper bound of the uptrend channel. Key resistance is given at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to see further strengthening. In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

EUR/USD has posted slight gains in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.0580. On the release front, Private Loans increased by 2.2%, above the estimate of 2.1%. M3 Money Supply edged lower to 4.9%, matching the forecast. The US starts off the week with durable goods orders reports and Pending Home Sales. On Tuesday, the US releases Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence. As well, President Trump will address a joint session of Congress.

There was good news for the eurozone on Monday, as bank lending to eurozone households improved for a third straight month, rising to 2.2% in January. Lending has been moving upwards since 2015, but has only recently shown strong gains. This could be a sign that the ECB’s stimulus program is finally bearing results. The central bank recently extended the QE program until December and is unlikely to end it earlier. Meanwhile, M3 Money Supply, which measures growth in the amount of money circulating in the eurozone, slowed to 4.8%, down from 5.0% a month earlier. This indicator is closely watched, as it often predicts economic activity.

US data was soft on Friday. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to 96.3 in February, compared to 98.5 a month earlier. Still, this figure edged above the forecast of 96.1. On the housing sector, New Home Sales improved to 555 thousand in January, but this was well short of the forecast of 575 thousand. This follows Existing Home Sales, which jumped to 5.69 million, above the estimate of 5.55 million. On Monday, we’ll get a look at Pending Home Sales, which is expected to dip to 1.1%.

President Trump’s administration has a rough first month, beset by constant friction with the media and trouble filling in key cabinet positions. Trump will address Congress on Tuesday and the nation will be listening closely. Will we see the combative, outspoken Trump, or will he opt for a more conciliatory approach? In order to pass key legislation, Trump will have to make nice with lawmakers from both sides of the fence, and this speech would be an ideal time to offer a hand of cooperation rather than combat. The markets will be looking for some details about the administration’s economic plan – if this is lacking, market sentiment could sour, dragging down the US dollar.

Markets await Trump's 1st major policy speech on Tuesday

Notes/Observations

Overnight:

Asia:

China FX regulator SAFE: To strengthen supervision of FX market in 2017

China State Information Center (SIO) forecasted Q1 GDP at 6.6%

Europe:

UK PM May could agree to new Scottish independence vote on condition it was held after UK leaves EU

BOE's Saunders (MPC member): Brexit to have long-term "modest adverse" impact on UK GDP. Lack of credit freeze after Brexit vote likely the main factor behind economic resilience

UK govt said to announce curbs on new EU migrants on the same date PM May triggers Article 50 EU exit process on March 15th

ECB's Weidmann (Germany) reiterated that it still viewed the QE program "very critically"; ECB would not put a sudden end to its asset purchases

German Deputy Fin Min Spahn: Reiterates govt view that Greece must not be granted a "bail in" where creditors take a loss on their loans

Senior Merkel Ally Kauder:Europe should impose tariffs on US goods if Trump puts tariffs on imports from Europe

France Socialist Candidate Hamon failed to form possible alliance with far-left rival Jean-Luc Melenchon; Melenchon confirmed he will be a candidate

German Emnid Poll: Merkel's conservatives and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) are neck-and-neck at 32% (Note: elections in Sept)

Recent polls on France Presidential election (results in-line with priors). Odoxa Poll: 1st Round: Le Pen 27%, Macron 25%, Fillon 19%; 2nd Round: Macron 61%, Le Pen 39%

Italy Democratic Party scheduled party primaries for April 30th (Seen as precursor to calling an election)

Italy Eco Min Padoan refuted press speculation that he threatened to resign if effective reforms and planned privatizations are not carried out

ESM's Regling reiterates optimism that positions on Greece were growing closer. Reiterated view that could not make further payments to Greece without IMF involvement as would not be in line with what Govts had agreed

(DE) Moody's affirmed German sovereign rating at AAA; stable outlook

(GR) Fitch affirmed Greece sovereign rating at CCC

Americas:

US Treasury Sec Mnuchin: President Trump's first budget would not include any cuts to social welfare programs such as Social Security and Medicare. NY Times reported that Trump would not seek cuts to social welfare programs; Expected to seek sharp increases in defense spending and major cuts to other agencies, including the EPA. Trump administration could submit budget proposals as early as today

Economic date

(FI) Finland Feb Consumer Confidence: 20.8 v 21.0 prior; Business Confidence: 1 v 2 prior

(TR) Turkey Feb Economic Confidence: 91.5 v 85.7 prior

(ES) Spain Feb Preliminary CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.2%e

(ES) Spain Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e

(HU) Hungary Jan Unemployment Rate: 4.3% v 4.4% prior

(HK) Hong Kong Jan Trade Balance (HKD): -12.3B v -20.8Be, Exports Y/Y: -1.2% v +8.4%e; Imports Y/Y: -2.7% v +8.8%e

(SE) Sweden Jan Household Lending Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.1%e

(EU) Euro Zone Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.9% v 4.8%e

(PT) Portugal Feb Consumer Confidence: -4.4 v -6.2 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: 1.3 v 1.2 prior

(EU) Euro Zone Feb Business Climate Indicator: ### v 0.79e; Consumer Confidence (Final): ## v -6.2e

Fixed Income Issuance:

(DK) Denmark sold total DKK4.04B in 3-month and 6-month Bills

(NO) Norway sold NOK4.0B vs. NOK4.0B indicated in 6-month Bills;Avg Yield: 0.50% v 0.52% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.15x v 2.85x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Index snapshot (as of 10:00 GMT)

Indices [Stoxx50 +0.2% at 3,313, FTSE +0.2% at 7,260, DAX +0.1% at 11,819, CAC-40 -0.1% at 4,842, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9,458, FTSE MIB +0.8% at 18,737, SMI -0.2% at 8,508, S&P 500 Futures flat]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading mixed in the morning session after an overall negative end to the Asian session overnight; Markets jittery as participants await Trump's address to Congress on spending and tax plans tomorrow; FTSE 100 weighed by insurers Direct Line and Admiral after the Chancellor amended the discount rate for PI claims to -0.75% resulting in financial impacts on FY16 profits; shares of the LSE also trading lower after the board announced that it is highly unlikely that a sale of MTS could be satisfactorily achieved, therefore the proposed merger with Deutsche Boerse would unlikely to be approved by the European Commission; the major banking stocks providing support across the indices; Energy stocks trading notably higher as WTI and Brent trade higher intraday.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include AES Corp, Amtrust Financial Services, American Tower, American Woodmark, Armstrong World Industries, Sotheby's Holdings, Crawford & Co, FEMSA, Horizon Pharma, Installed Building Products, JinkoSolar, Kosmos Energy, National General Holdings, Senior Housing, TEGNA, and TransCanada.

Equities (as of 09:50 GMT)

Consumer Discretionary: [Associated British Foods ABF.UK -0.9% (trading update), Bunzl BNZL.UK +1.8% (FY16 results), Persimmon PSN.UK -0.4% (FY16 results, strategic update), Sopra Steria SOP.FR +4.5% (FY16 results), SHW SW1.DE -1.4% (FY16 results), Volex VLX.UK +7.6% (trading statement)]

Financials: [Admiral Group ADM.UK -4.4% (net financial impact on profits of £70-100M from reduction in discount rate), Deutsche Boerse DB1.DE -4.4% (LSE said its proposed merger was unlikely to be approved by the European Commission), Direct Line Insurance DLG.UK -7.6% (impact of Lord Chancellor's announcement), eSure ESUR.UK +2.8% (trading update), Hiscox HSX.UK +0.8% (FY16 results), London Stock Exchange LSE.UK -3.2% (Board believes that it is highly unlikely that a sale of MTS could be satisfactorily achieved), Senior PLC SNR.UK -1.8% (FY16 results)]

Healthcare: [Almirall ALM.ES -3.6% (FY16 results), arGEN-X ARGX.BE +1.0% (Shire alliance extension)]

Industrials: [Dassault Aviation AM.FR +0.8% (prelim FY16 sales), PostNL PNL.NL -6.4% (Q4 results), Rotork ROR.UK +3.7% (FY16 results), Volkswagen VOW3.DE -0.9% (prelim FY16 results)]

Materials: [Recticel REC.BE +5.8% (FY16 results)]

Speakers

Japan 2017 Budget Bill said to pass lower house

China PBOC official reiterated govt view that China's monetary policy should be more neutral; should keep liquidity basically stable

Currencies

USD consolidated its recent losses ahead of President Trump's first major policy address to Congress on Tuesday. President expected to include some details of his infrastructure spending and tax plans, but some market participants worry that a lack of fresh direction could disappoint investors and weigh on the USD

GBP was softer in both Asia and European sessions on reports that about the Scottish government was possibly seeking another independence referendum next year. Such news has circulated in recent weeks but remained a headwind for the pound sterling. GBP/USD was at 1.2425 area after testing a low of 1.2383

EUR/USD was higher by 0.3% to trade at 1.0590.

USD/JPY moved off its 2-week lows from Asia and stayed above the key 111 support level. The pair was holding steady at 112.25 just ahead of the NY morning.

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 166.03 down 17 ticks trading in the lower portion of today's range, fading some of the move higher seen last week. Further downside momentum targets 165.60 initially followed by 165.31. A resumption higher targets 166.40 followed by 166.61.

Gilt futures trade at 128.13 up 8 ticks with volatility likely to increase due to futures rolling to the June contract this week. Resistance moves to 128.32 Friday high then 128.50. Support moves to 127.85 followed by 127.25 then 126.70.
Monday liquidity report showed Friday's excess liquidity rose to €1.314T up €13B from €1.301T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility fell to €103M from €188M prior.

Corporate issuance saw $13.9B come to market last week via 21 tranches, which slightly missed analyst estimates of between $15-20B.

In Euro denominated issuance €33.2B came to market largely comprised of SSA deals with the EFSF, UK and Spain accounting for over €15B of the weeks issuance. Tuesday saw the bulk of the volume with over €10B priced.

Looking Ahead

(CH) Swiss Parliament holds Spring Session in Bern

(UK) House of Lords holds detailed review of Article 50 Bill (through Mar 3rd)

(BE) Belgium Feb CPI M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior

(CL) Chile Jan PPI M/M: No est v 2.0% prior - 07:30 (CH) SNB's Zurbruegg speaks in Basel

08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of upcoming auctions in week

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:30 (US) Jan Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: +1.7%e v -0.5% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Capital Goods Orders (Non-defense ex aircraft): 0.5%e v 0.7% prior, Capital Goods Shipments (Non-defense/ex- aircraft): 0.2%e v 1.0% prior; Durables Ex-defense: No est v 1.7% prior

08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €5.4-6.6B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills

09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted): 3.7%e v 3.7% prior; Unemployment Rate (Unadj): 3.8%e v 3.4% prior

09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Trade Balance: -$2.6Be v $0.0B prior

09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%

09:30 (EU) ECB announces Covered-Bond Purchases

09:35 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender

10:00 (US) Jan Pending Home Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.0% prior

10:30 (US) Feb Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity: 19.4e v 22.1 prior

11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills

EUR/USD

Current level - 10565

My outlook is already bearish after the reversal at 1.0618, for a break through 1.0535 low, towards 1.0450 area.

Profit-taking affects gold curbing silver and platinum

USD/JPY

Current level - 112.10

The downtrend remains intact, for a tight test of 111.60 support area. The latter should provide a reliable bas for an upswing towards 114.95 zone. Initial intraday resistance lies at 112.53.

GBP/USD

Current level - 1.2425

My outlook here is bearish, for a break through 1.2380 support, towards 1.2240 area. Key resistance lies at 1.2505.

The Aussie remains within short-term congestion, shaped in three consecutive weekly long-legged Dojis, unable so far to clearly break higher, despite repeated probes above pivotal 0.7700 barrier. However, overall bullish structure remains intact, with price action being supported by rising 20SMA (currently at 0.7659) that keep alive hopes of renewed attack at recent highs at 0.7730/39 and possible stretch toward target at 0.7776 (08 Nov high). The pair is awaiting Wednesday's release of Australian Q4 GDP data, which could boost the pair on release at/above forecasts. Meantime, extended consolidation is expected to hold above 20SMA and prevent deeper dips that would expose next strong support at 0.7600 higher base.

Res: 0.7687, 0.7700, 0.7739, 0.7758
Sup: 0.7659, 0.7624, 0.7600, 0.7575

Strong bearish acceleration from 113.76 (21 Feb lower top) extended to 111.90 today and hit the base of rising daily cloud.

Strong bearish setup of daily studies pressures the pair for final push towards key short-term supports at 111.60 (06/09 Feb base/2017 lows) and 111.36 (weekly cloud top) in extension.

Near –term price action may show hesitation before firm break below daily cloud base (reinforced by rising 100SMA), with recovery attempts expected to remain below falling hourly cloud (spanned between 112.86 and 113.08).

Res: 112.59, 112.86, 113.08, 113.42
Sup: 111.90, 111.60, 111.36, 111.00

Pound extended last Friday's fall in Asian session today and cracked strong support at 1.2400 (converged 55/100SMA's), after Thursday's strong rally was capped by Fibo 61.8% barrier at 1.2567.

Fresh weakness came on renewed talks about Scotland's independence referendum, with investors also focusing on Tuesday's speech of US President Donald Trump for more clues about expected tax reform.

Near-term focus has turned lower again, with daily cloud top (1.2379) being under pressure.

Daily technical studies are returning to bearish setup that increases risk of further weakness.

Close below 55/100 SMA is seen as initial trigger for fresh extension lower, with break below next set of pivotal supports at 1.2379 (daily cloud top) and 1.2345 (weekly Tenkan-sen), needed to confirm bearish scenario.

Meantime, consolidation above 1.2400 handle should stay capped by daily Tenkan-sen at 1.2475, to keep negative sentiment in play.

Alternative scenario requires break and close above 1.2475 barrier for renewed attempts at upper breakpoints at 1.2567/80.

Res: 1.2433, 1.2457, 1.2475, 1.2500
Sup: 1.2400, 1.2379, 1.2345, 1.2300

The Euro is at the back foot in early Monday's trading and is holding around daily cloud base at 1.0557, following strong bearish acceleration and close below converged 10/55SMA's after last Friday's strong upside rejection.

Daily 55SMA (currently at 1.0587) marks strong barrier (10/55SMA bear cross is forming here) and capped the action in past five days.

Firm break below daily cloud base would generate stronger bearish signal, with completion of H&S pattern that is forming on hourly chart (neckline lies at 1.0545), needed to confirm resumption of fresh weakness from 1.0617 upside rejection (Friday's high) and look for return to 1.0492 (22 Feb low).

Bearishly aligned daily studies support scenario.

Conversely, break and close above 10/55SMA's would signal fresh strength and focus 20 SMA barrier at 1.0649.

Res: 1.0587, 1.0649, 1.0678, 1.0694
Sup: 1.0557, 1.0545, 1.0522, 1.0492