Yes, that's oil STILL at weekly resistance.

Click the link in that blog from early February to take a look at the higher time frame chart, or bring up the commodity on your own MT4 platform.

I'll stick with just showing the daily chart here today, focusing on something that I haven't brought up in any of the most recent oil blogs, that you can find on the News Centre.

Oil Daily:

What I'm talking about is the gap I've pointed to with the arrow to the left. While price is teasing the level, it hasn't actually touched it. Whether close enough is good enough as this gap also coincides with the weekly resistance zone, I'm not sure.

Do you see significance in this gap?

The Clash of the Titans

The Fed rate hike debate rages on with the market now nearing on a 50% probability of a hike in March after the Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan repeated his view that the Fed should move 'sooner rather than later'. Recent Fed speakers and US data are nudging up March probability, leading up to 2 Key speeches by Yellen and Fischer on Friday. Also, President Trump was making overtones about future economic promises and all of which has seen the dollar turn stealthily bid and echoing US Bond yields for all the usual reasons.

Australian dollar

The AUD continues to find dip demand as commodities outperform and on the back of better domestic economic data. Again the recent rally was capped just above .7700 as several key crosses stalled out at critical levels. However, the Aussie is trading very constructively in the wake of the more hawkish commentary we've been hearing from the RBA Governor. Markets are standing firm ahead of this week's Q4 GDP release on Wednesday, which could provide the catalyst for AUD to surge above the current resistance levels.

Euro

The Euro is an adrift in mid-range back mid-range, but volatility has been rather subdued. While political noise out of Europe will be the key driver, after getting through the weekend without any unsavoury headlines, a sense of calm has engulfed the EU zone But don't get too complacent, as we are likely one headline away from another test of 1.0500. I sense that the short euro trade will require a good deal of fortitude to stay with given the growing near-term uncertainty of the USD.

Yen

US yields were the primary driver overnight as political risk in EU has tempered for now, but the currency markets are not about to get easier anytime soon. Outside of a Bond induced bound in the Greenback, investors are otherwise sitting fairly still, and the markets traded sideways.

While the dollar has caught a sneaky bid ahead of Trump's Congressional Address, let's not forget the plethora of Fed speakers on the ticket this week, concluding with Janet Yellen on Friday. If anything we have seen the Feds lean more hawkish since last week's FOMC statement, so eyes will be focused on Fed headlines.

The market is playing this week up as a Clash of the Titans (Yellen vs Trump), but the dollar bears should take caution if Trump follows through on Infrastructure and Yellen ratchets up the Rate hike rhetoric to end the week, as USDJPY will surge. I guess the big question for the market is, will Trump use tonight's platform to execute?

Political uncertainty, in particular the French Presidential election, in the Eurozone has unnerved European bond markets. Although far right candidate Marine Le Pen is expected to lose in the second round of the election, the market still finds this tail risk non-negligible. Indeed, recent movements of French bond yields, as well as French-German yield spreads, have been dominated by opinion polls. French yields, as well as French-German yield spreads, climb higher as Le Pen's supports gain, vice versa. For instance, we notice that France's 10-year bond yield has started falling since February 22, after veteran centrist Francois Bayrou surprisingly joined Emmanuel Macron in his campaign. Yields continued to drop, falling to a one-month low of 0.92% today, as the latest polls signaled that Macron would beat Le Pen in the second round of presidential elections in May. Simultaneously, French-German yield spreads fell to around 0.72%, the lowest level in a week.

Volatility in the bond markets would remain elevated as we approach the first, and second and final round of the election, to be held on April 23 and May 7, respectively. Latest polls (conducted on Feb 26) by Odoxa/Dentsu showed that supports for Le Pen and Macron in the first round of the election were 27% and 25%, respectively, compared with François Fillon's 19%. It is expected that Macron would retain 61% of the vote, compared with Le Pen's 39%, in the second round, making him the French President in the coming 5 years. Separately, polls by Figaro/LCI showed that Macron would be winning the runoff by 58% to 42% for Le Pen. Indeed, even before the Macron-Bayrou alliance, polls have been suggesting Le Pen would lead in first round but lose in the second and final round. While the probability of Le Pen's victory has been low, the market remained concerned about such risk, especially given the lessons of Brexit referendum and the US presidential election. Of utmost worries are some of the key features in the National Front Party leader's platform including referendum on France's EU membership, Bank of France to directly finance the government and redenomination of about 1.7 trillion euro of French public debt into francs.

Concerns over Frexit and redenomination of French debts have triggered selling of French bonds and purchases of German bunds as the latter is regarded as safe haven at times of political uncertainty in the Eurozone. Another phenomenon revealed over the past week was the selloff in Germany's short-dated bund yields. For instance, Schatz yields plunged to a record low -0.95% while Bobl yields felt o a 7.5-month low of -0.6% last Friday. Undoubtedly, concerns over Frexir and risks over French bond redenomination is a key reason driving bund yields deeper to the negative territory. However, we believe ECB's move to buy more short-dated debts is a more long-lasting factor pressuring yields.

In December, ECB announced it would lift restrictions on buying debt with yields below the deposit rate of -0.4%. As no guidance on this kind of bond purchases has been provided, how much of these bonds would be bought and when the purchase would begin remains unknown. Danske estimated that15% of the QE purchases in German government bonds would have to be below the deposit level, assuming unchanged bund yields throughout 2017. However, if bund yields increase +25 bps across the curve, the ECB could avoid buying below depo in 2017, while the buying below depo would increase to 40% if yields decrease -25 bps. Citigroup predicts that the ECB will buy around 80B euro of 1-6 year bunds just to complete QE to year-end. While these estimates are based on limited details on ECB's plan, what is certain is that the move would continue put bund yields, particularly in yields in the 1-6 year segment on the German curve, under pressure.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0536; (P) 1.0577 (R1) 1.0597; More.....

EUR/USD continues to consolidate above 1.0493 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 1.0678 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. We're viewing fall from 1.0828 as resuming the larger down trend. Below 1.0493 will target 1.0339 low first. Break will confirm our bearish view and target parity. However, break of 1.0678 will dampen our view and turn focus back to 1.0828 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2412; (P) 1.2490; (R1) 1.2534; More...

GBP/USD is still bounded in range of 1.2346/2705. Intraday bias remains neutral first and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0038; (P) 1.0077; (R1) 1.0101; More.....

USD/CHF continues to consolidation below 1.0140 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 0.9966 support intact, further rise is in favor. Above 1.0140 will turn bias to the upside and target a test on 1.0342 resistance. Based on neutral medium term outlook, we'd be cautious on topping at around 1.0342. Meanwhile, break of 0.9966 will indicate completion of the rebound from 0.9860. And intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.9860.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 112.33; (R1) 112.72; More...

USD/JPY continues to stay in range of 111.58/114.94 and intraday bias remains neutral first. The corrective fall from 1118.65 could extend lower. But we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Dollar continues to trade mixed after weaker than expected data. Durable goods orders grew 1.8% in January, below expectation of 1.9%. Ex-transport orders dropped -0.2% versus expectation of 0.5% growth. Traders are staying cautious ahead of the highly anticipated address to Congress by US president Donald Trump tomorrow. Trump would likely provide details on dismantling the Affordable Care Act, or so-called Obamacare. However, market's attention will be on other economic related issues. That include the long-awaited tax reform that boosted stocks to new records highs. Traders started to reposition late last week as seen in the divergence in major indices. Also the greenback pull backed back following sharp fall in yields. The greenback could be vulnerable to selloff if Trump fails to live up to expectations again.

Separately, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will be speaking on Friday on the economic outlook. The market has priced in higher chance of a rate hike in March with the OIS implied probabilities rising to 47.8% from 46.3% previously, following comments from Philadelphia Fed's Patrick Harker and Dallas Fed's Robert Kaplan, both appeared to support a March hike. Comments from Yellen and Fischer later this week should give more hints on Fed's normalization schedule.

Euro mildly higher as Macron closes gap with Le Pen

Euro strengthens mildly today on news that centrist French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron opened up his lead over Republican Francois Fillon. Macron also managed to narrow the gap with rightist anti-Euro Marine Le Pen. Two polls published over the weekend showed that Macron has 25% support from French electorate going into April's election, just two points behind Le Pen. Overall, analysts maintained their view that no candidate can get majority vote in first round of election. And Macron is favorite to beat Le Pen in and one-on-one run-off in second round. However, as Le Pen's win would increase the risk of Frexit, Euro will remain sensitive to political news from France.

Eurozone confidence improved in January

Eurozone business climate rose to 0.82 in February, above expectation of 0.79. Economic confidence improved to 108.0 but missed expectation of 108.1. Industrial confidence rose to 1.3, above expectation of 1.0. Services confidence also rose to 13.8, above expectation of 13.3. Consumer confidence was finalized at -6.2. M3 money supply rose 4.9% yoy in January, slowed from 5.0% yoy. Lending to house holds grew 2.2% yoy, up from 2.0% yoy. Loans to businesses rose 2.3% yoy.

Sterling lower as Scotland worries resurface

Sterling is under broad based selling pressure today. Selloff in the Pound is seen as a reaction to news that Prime Minister May is preparing for Scotland to call for another independence referendum. And that would come as May triggers the Article 50 for Brexit negotiation with EU by the end of March. It's reported that May could agree to the vote on condition that it happens after completing the Brexit process.

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 111.70; (P) 112.33; (R1) 112.72; More...

USD/JPY continues to stay in range of 111.58/114.94 and intraday bias remains neutral first. The corrective fall from 1118.65 could extend lower. But we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13 to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 114.94 resistance should confirm completion of pull back from 118.65. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 118.65.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

Economic Indicators Update

USD/CAD is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading slightly above the 1.31 line. On the release front, there are no Canadian releases. On the economic front, US Core Durable Goods Orders declined 0.2%, short of the estimate of +0.5%. However, Durable Goods Orders jumped 1.8%, beating the forecast of 1.6%. Later in the day, the US releases Pending Home Sales. On Tuesday, the US publishes Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence. As well, President Trump will address a joint session of Congress.

Canadian inflation levels jumped in January, led by CPI, which climbed 0.9%, well above the forecast of 0.3%. Higher gasoline prices and stronger crude prices boosted inflation. Still, the unexpected rise in inflation is unlikely to sway any opinions at the Bank of Canada, which is expected to hold rates at 0.50% at its policy meeting on Wednesday. Last year, the BoC adopted three new indicators to measure inflation, and these averaged 1.6% in January, below the central bank's inflation target of 2.0%. On Tuesday, Canada releases RMPI, which gauges inflation in the manufacturing sector.

US data was soft on Friday. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to 96.3 in February, compared to 98.5 a month earlier. Still, this figure edged above the forecast of 96.1. On the housing sector, New Home Sales improved to 555 thousand in January, but this was well short of the forecast of 575 thousand. This follows Existing Home Sales, which jumped to 5.69 million, above the estimate of 5.55 million. On Monday, we'll get a look at Pending Home Sales, which is expected to dip to 1.1%.

President Trump's administration has a rough first month, beset by constant friction with the media and trouble filling in key cabinet positions. Trump will address Congress on Tuesday and the nation will be listening closely. Will we see the combative, outspoken Trump, or will he opt for a more conciliatory approach? In order to pass key legislation, Trump will have to make nice with lawmakers from both sides of the fence, and this speech would be an ideal time to offer a hand of cooperation rather than combat. The markets will be looking for some details about the administration's economic plan – if this is lacking, market sentiment could sour, dragging down the US dollar.

USD/JPY has started the week with limited movement. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 112.30. On the economic front, the US releases durable goods orders reports and Pending Home Sales. Japan will release Preliminary Industrial Production and Retail Sales. On Tuesday, the US releases Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence. As well, President Trump will address a joint session of Congress.

US data was soft on Friday. Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped to 96.3 in February, compared to 98.5 a month earlier. Still, this figure edged above the forecast of 96.1. On the housing sector, New Home Sales improved to 555 thousand in January, but this was well short of the forecast of 575 thousand. This follows Existing Home Sales, which jumped to 5.69 million, above the estimate of 5.55 million. On Monday, we'll get a look at Pending Home Sales, which is expected to dip to 1.1%.

President Trump's administration has a rough first month, beset by constant friction with the media and trouble filling in key cabinet positions. Trump will address Congress on Tuesday and the nation will be listening closely. Will we see the combative, outspoken Trump, or will he opt for a more conciliatory approach? In order to pass key legislation, Trump will have to make nice with lawmakers from both sides of the fence, and this speech would be an ideal time to offer a hand of cooperation rather than combat. The markets will be looking for some details about the administration's economic plan – if this is lacking, market sentiment could sour, dragging down the US dollar.

With the Japanese yen hovering at low levels, imports have become pricier for Japanese consumers. Predictably, the response has been a drop in consumer spending. In its monthly economic report, the government lowered its assessment of consumer spending, the first downgrade in 11 months. Conversely, the weak yen has been a boom for exports, prompting the government to raise its assessment of exports for the first time in four months. The report did not change the overall assessment that the economy is recovering at a moderate clip. Japanese policymakers are concerned about the protectionist stance under President Donald Trump. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzu Abe met recently with Trump in Washington and defused a currency policy crisis. Still, Trump is unhappy with the trade balance between the two countries, so some turbulence could lie ahead in US-Japanese relations.