Sample Category Title

Gold Monitoring resistance at $1263.

Gold is getting stronger. The momentum seems back to bullish despite some consolidation. Resistance is located at 1263 (27/02/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1224.10 (16/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the technical structure suggests that there is a growing upside momentum. A break of 1392 (17/03/2014) is necessary ton confirm it, A major support can be found at 1045 (05/02/2010 low).

Silver Increasing again.

Silver has increased above 18.00 which is now a support. Strong resistance is given at a distance at 18.49 (27/02/2017 high). Key support is given at 16.82 (15/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, the death cross indicates that further downsides are very likely. Resistance is located at 25.11 (28/08/2013 high). Strong support can be found at 11.75 (20/04/2009).

Crude oil Short-term bullish.

Crude oil keeps on increasing. The commodity had been located in a bearish trend since the commodity had been unable to mount a serious challenge to resistance at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high) but now the pair is heading higher. Resistance is given at 51.88 (05/041/2017 high). Hourly support is given at 47.09 (22/03/2017 low).

In the long-term, crude oil has recovered after its sharp decline last year. However, we consider that further weakness are very likely. Strong support lies at 24.82 (13/11/2002) while resistance can now be found at 55.24 (03/01/2017 high).

EUR/CHF Short-term bearish.

EUR/CHF's is trading around 1.0700. The medium-term pattern suggests us to see continued bearish pressures towards key support that can be found at 1.0623 (24/06/2016 low). Expected to see further decline.

In the longer term, the technical structure is mixed. Resistance can be found at 1.1200 (04/02/2015 high). Yet,the ECB's QE programme is likely to cause persistent selling pressures on the euro, which should weigh on EUR/CHF. Supports can be found at 1.0184 (28/01/2015 low) and 1.0082 (27/01/2015 low).

EUR/JPY Continued decline.

EUR/JPY rejection at 122.88 has triggered a correction. The pair is also very volatile. Hourly support at 119.33 (23/03/2017 low) has been broken. Resistance stands at 122.88 (13/03/0217 high). The road is wide-open for further weakness towards strong support given at 113.73 (09/11/2016 low).

In the longer term, the technical structure validates a medium-term succession of lower highs and lower lows. As a result, the resistance at 149.78 (08/12/2014 high) has likely marked the end of the rise that started in July 2012. Strong support at 94.12 (24/07/2012 low) looks nonetheless far away.

EUR/GBP Collapsing.

EUR/GBP is getting lower. Hourly resistance is given at 0.8591 (05/04/2017 high). Strong resistance is given at 0.8787 (13/03/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 0.8484 (31/03/2017 low). Expected to show continued weakness.

In the long-term, the pair has largely recovered from recent lows in 2015. The technical structure suggests a growing upside momentum. The pair is trading above from its 200 DMA. Strong resistance can be found at 0.9500 psychological level.

USD/CHF Pushing higher.

USD/CHF is strengthening. Hourly support is given at 0.9814 (27/03/2017 low). Key resistance can be found at a distance at 1.0344 (15/12/2016 high). Expected to show another leg higher.

In the long-term, the pair is still trading in range since 2011 despite some turmoil when the SNB unpegged the CHF. Key support can be found 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low). The technical structure favours nonetheless a long term bullish bias since the unpeg in January 2015.

USD/CAD Pushing higher.

USD/CAD has broken resistance area around 1.3400 which invalidates the short term bearish technical structure. Hourly support is given at 1.3265 (21/03/2016 low) is at stake. Key support is given at 1.2969 (31/01/2017 low).

In the longer term, there is a golden cross with the 50 dma crossing the 200 dma indicating further upside pressures. Strong resistance is given at 1.4690 (22/01/2016 high). Long-term support can be found at 1.2461 (16/03/2015 low).

AUD/USD Edging lower.

AUD/USD is getting lower. The pair has failed to test the key resistance at 0.7778 (08/11/2016 high). Expected to see some short-term weakness towards support area around 0.7500.

In the long-term, we are waiting for further signs that the current downtrend is ending. Key supports stand at 0.6009 (31/10/2008 low) . A break of the key resistance at 0.8295 (15/01/2015 high) is needed to invalidate our long-term bearish view.

EUR/USD Consolidating below 1.0700.

EUR/USD is now consolidating. The pair is heading lower since the pair failed to hold above former resistance given at 1.0874 (08/12/2017 high). Hourly support can be found at 1.0630 (intraday low). Stronger support can be found at 1.0494 (22/02/2017 low). Expected to see further short-term weakness.

In the longer term, the death cross late October indicated a further bearish bias. The pair has broken key support given at 1.0458 (16/03/2015 low). Key resistance holds at 1.1714 (24/08/2015 high). Expected to head towards parity.

GBP/USD Fading momentum.

GBP/USD's bullish pressures have faded abruptly. Hourly resistance is located at 1.2615 (27/03/2017 high) while hourly support can be found at 1.2324 (03/17/2017 low). Expected to show continued strengthening towards stronger resistance at 1.2775 (06/12/2016 high) if support area around 1.24 stands.

The long-term technical pattern is even more negative since the Brexit vote has paved the way for further decline. Long-term support given at 1.0520 (01/03/85) represents a decent target. Long-term resistance is given at 1.5018 (24/06/2015) and would indicate a long-term reversal in the negative trend. Yet, it is very unlikely at the moment.

USD/JPY Monitoring support at 110.

USD/JPY's momentum is slowing down. Hourly resistance is given at 112.20 (31/03/2017 high). Stronger resistance can be located at 113.57 (16/03/2017 high) while support is given at 110.11 (27/03/2017 low).

We favor a long-term bearish bias. Support is now given at 96.57 (10/08/2013 low). A gradual rise towards the major resistance at 135.15 (01/02/2002 high) seems absolutely unlikely. Expected to decline further support at 93.79 (13/06/2013 low).

DAX remains at the back foot and opened lower on Thursday after previous day's strong fall.

Extension of pullback from fresh record high at 12410 (posted on 03 Apr) hit the mid-point of 11878/12410 upleg and sees risk of deeper pullback on cracking converged daily Tenkan-sen/ Kijun-sen lines (12176/12144) respectively.

Daily RSI that reversed from overbought territory is heading south and showing a plenty of space at the downside.

Close below daily Kijun-sen is seen as initial bearish signal to open a cluster of supports below that starts with 20SMA (12123) then Fibo 61.8% (12081) and 30 SMA (12065).

The move is seen as correction of broader uptrend since Feb 2016 low at 8695 and should be ideally contained between 12081/12036 zone (Fibo 61.8% / bull-trendline connecting 11459 and

11878 trough) to avoid deeper pullback that may extend below psychological 12000 support on violation of the latter points.

Another bearish signal is forming on reversal of RSI / slow stochastic from oversold territory on weekly chart that may signal stronger correction on break below 12000/11878 supports.

Resistance points lay at 12201 (session high), 12243 (Fibo 38.2% of current 1241/12141 downleg) that marks the upper pivot.

Res: 12201, 12243, 12275, 12307
Sup: 12144, 12123, 12081, 12036

USD/CHF - 1.0043

Original strategy :

Buy at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9915

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Buy at 0.9950, Target: 1.0050, Stop: 0.9915

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after last week’s rally above 1.0003 resistance, suggesting recent rise from last week’s low at 0.9813 is still in progress and bullishness remains for this move to 1.0080, then towards previous resistance at 1.0109, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond latter level and reckon 1.0140-50 would hold, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later. 

In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to buy dollar on pullback as support at 0.9948 should limit downside. Below 0.9925-30 would abort and signal top is formed instead, bring correction to 0.9905-10 but reckon previous resistance at 0.9869 would hold from here. 

GBP/USD - 1.2478

Original strategy :

Sold at 1.2465, Target: 1.2365, Stop: 1.2500

Position : - Short at 1.2465

Target :  - 1.2365

Stop : - 1.2500

New strategy  :

Hold short entered at 1.2465, Target: 1.2365, Stop: 1.2500

Position : - Short at 1.2465

Target :  - 1.2365

Stop : - 1.2500

Cable’s rebound after holding above support at 1.2419 suggests further consolidation above this level would be seen, however, as long as indicated resistance at 1.2500 holds, mild downside bias remains for another fall, below said support at 1.2419 would bring test of 1.2400 but break there is needed to add credence to our view that the rebound from 1.2377 has ended at 1.2559, bring further fall towards support at 1.2377. Looking ahead, only a drop below 1.2377 would confirm the fall from 1.2616 is still in progress for subsequent decline towards key support at 1.2335.

In view of this, we are holding on to our short position entered at 1.2465 but one should exit on such decline. Only break of said resistance at 1.2500 would abort and suggest low has been formed instead, risk a stronger rebound to 1.2525-30, then towards resistance at 1.2559.

EUR/USD - 1.0663

Original strategy  :

Sell at 1.0725, Target: 1.0610, Stop: 1.0760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 1.0725, Target: 1.0610, Stop: 1.0760

Position : -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the single currency has remained under pressure after recent selloff, bearishness remains for the decline from 1.0906 to extend further weakness to 1.0620, then test of previous chart support at 1.0600, however, a sustained breach below the latter level is needed to retain downside bias for subsequent selloff to 1.0570-75 first.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 1.0720-30 should limit upside. Only a firm break above resistance at 1.0773 would suggest low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 1.0800 but resistance at 1.0827 should remain intact. 

Notes/Observations

ECB's Darghi dampens any speculation on any imminent change in its policy stance

Market focus remains on upcoming discussions between the leaders of the US and Chin

India RBI narrow its rate corridor (not expected); left Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.25% but raised the Reverse Repo by 25bps to 6.00%

Overnight:

Asia:

China Mar Caixin PMI Services: 52.2 v 52.6 prior (6-month low and 3rd straight sequential decline)

PBoC skips open market operations for 9th straight session

China FX regulator SAFE: China FX market relatively stable, cross-border capital flow were gradually becoming balanced

Europe:

European Finance Ministers to study bad bank loan reduction program. Germany said to support ideas but opposed any European bad banks

Americas:

White House adviser Steve Bannon removed from National Security Council principals committee role in staff reorganization

House Speaker Ryan: House, Senate and White House are not yet on the same page regarding tax reform. Tax reform could take longer than healthcare haul

FOMC Mar Minutes: Most participants saw move to reduce the balance sheet later this year and stressed that policy change should be communicated "well in advance" of any actual change

Economic Data

(NL) Netherlands Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.8% prior

(IN) India Mar PMI Services: 51.5 v 50.3 prior (2nd consecutive month of expansion)

(JP) Japan Mar Consumer Confidence: 43.9 v 43.4e

(DE) Germany Feb Factory Orders M/M: 3.4% v4.0%e; Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.9%e

(CH) Swiss Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e

(CH) Swiss Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.5%e

Fixed Income Issuance:

(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €3.92B vs. €3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2020, 2027 and 2041 Bonds

Sold €1.86B in 1.4% 2020 bono; Avg Yield: -0.126% v +0.641% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 1.77x prior

Sold €1.27B in 1.5% Apr 2027 bond; Avg yield: 1.610% v 1.684% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.65x v 1.42x prior

Sold €792M in 4.70% July 2041 SPGB; Avg Yield: 2.666% v 2.569% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.47x v 1.46x prior

(ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €876M vs. €0.5-1.0B indicate range in 1.80% Nov 2024 I/L bonds; Real Yield: 0.133% v 0.159% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.99x v 1.43x prior

(FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €7.996B vs. €7.0-8.0B in 2027 and 2031 Oats

Sold €4.908B in May 1.0% 2027 Oat; Avg Yield: 0.97% v 0.91% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.03x v 2.75x prior

Sold €3.088B in May 1.50% 2031 Oat; Avg Yield 1.31% v 1.48% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.91x v 1.82x prior

SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM

Index snapshot (as of 10:00 GMT)

Indices [Stoxx50 -0.3% at 3,460, FTSE -0.6% at 7,288, DAX -0.5% at 12,162, CAC-40 -0.2% at 5,082, IBEX-35 -0.1% at 10,396, FTSE MIB -0.5% at 20,144, SMI -0.5% at 8,600, S&P 500 Futures -0.1%]

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European equity indices are trading lower as markets are jittery ahead of the ECB minutes of the latest policy meeting; Market uncertainty also heightened with US President Trump's meeting with China President Xi Jinping today; FOMC minutes were released overnight and Speaker Ryan said the road ahead for tax reform may be longer than healthcare; Banking stocks trading lower across the board with the peripheral lender weighted FTSE MIB underperforming as a result; shares of Pearson the notable laggard in the FTSE 100 after receiving an analyst downgrade; Commodity and mining stocks providing some support in the index as copper prices consolidate near yesterday's rally highs.

Upcoming scheduled US earnings (pre-market) include Fred's, Hooker Furniture, Carmax, Lamb Weston, MSC Industrial Direct, RPM International, Schnitzer Steel Industries, and Constellation Brands.

Equities (as of 09:50 GMT)

Consumer Discretionary: [Hella KGaA HLE.DE -0.1% (9M results), Homeserve HSV.UK +8.8% (trading update), Mothercare MTC.UK +2.2% (Q4 results), Pearson PSON.UK -8.9% (analyst downgrade), Unilever UNA.NL -0.1% (to buyback €5B shares)]

Consumer Staples: [CHR Hansen CHR.DK -3.3% (Q2 results)]

Financials: [Saint-Gobain SGO.FR -0.5% (extension of pact with Burkard Family in relation to sale of Schenker -Winkler)]

Healthcare: [BTG BTG.UK +3.8% (revised FY outlook), Hikma Pharmaceuticals HIK.UK -0.6% (settlement agreement with Jazz), PureTech Health PRTC.UK +2.3% (Project EVO pilot study results)]

Industrials: [Gerresheimer GXI.DE -5.3% (Q1 results)]

Technology: [Kontron KBC.DE +3.0% (FY16 results), S&T SANT.AT +5.8% (FY16 results), Wirecard WDI.DE -0.2% (final FY16 results)]

Utilities: [Findel FDL.UK -1.5% (trading statement)]

Speakers

ECB chief Draghi reiterated that monetary policy stance remains appropriate; needed to see more inflation confidence before changing stance

ECB's Praet (Belgium, chief economist) reiterated ECB stance on forward guidance that interest rates to stay low or lower during the forecast horizon. Cyclical recovery gaining momentum with expansion broadening; risks remained to the downside and inflation dynamics were conditional on substantial degree of policy accommodation

EU Commission imposes 5 year tariffs on Chinese hot-rolled coil steel of up to 35.9% in bid to ease competition for EU producers

RBI Policy statement noted that it was unanimous in its decision to narrow rate corridor (6-0). Narrow corridor to help manage weighted average call rate. Forecasted FY17/18 GDP at 7.4% v 6.7% in prior year. Saw H1 inflation at 4.5% and rising to 5.0% in H2

Currencies

Relatively subdued European session with overall market focus remaining on upcoming discussions between the leaders of the US and China on Friday.

EUR currency was softer in the session after ECB's Draghi dampened any speculation of any imminent change in its policy stance. Pair hit a 3-week low at 1.0630 following the Draghi commentary on forward guidance

Fixed Income:

Bund futures trade at 162.38 down 2 ticks coming off earlier highs following the Spanish and French auctions. Continued momentum lower targets 162.02 followed by 161.52 then 161.02. A move back higher targets 162.67 day high followed by 162.98 then Feb contract high at 163.12. .

Gilt futures trade at 127.95 down 7 ticks also reversing from earlier highs as European indices rebound off lows. Support remains at 127.75 then 127.34 followed by 127.05. Resistance moves to 128.50 then 128.96 followed by 129.24. Short Sterling futures trade flat with Jun17Jun18 remaining steady at 14/14.5bp

Thursday's liquidity report showed Wednesday's excess liquidity fell to €1.465T a fall of f €110B from €1.575T prior. Use of the marginal lending facility rose to €256M from €114M prior.

Corporate issuance saw $7.2B come to market via 4 issuers headlined by Airbus $1.5B 2 part offering, Sinopec $3.4B 4 part offering and Unicredit $2B 2 part offering. Issuance for the week now stands over $18B compared to analyst estimates at $25B.

Looking Ahead

(UK) EU President Tusk meets PM May in London to discuss Brexit

(MX) Mexico Mar Vehicle Production: No est v 301.5K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 240.9K prior

05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 12-month Bills

05:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Floating Bonds

05:30 (PL) Poland to sell to sell PLN3.0-5.0B in Bonds

05:40 (DE) ECB's Weidmann (Germany) in Berlin

06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Live Registry Monthly Change: No est v -2.8Ke; Live Registry Level: No est v 276.0K prior

06:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with State leaders

07:00 (BR) Brazil May FGV Inflation IGP-DI M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.8%e v 5.3% prior

07:30 (US) Mar Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 37.0K prior; Y/Y: No est v -40.0% prior

07:30 (EU) ECB account of the monetary policy meeting (Feb Minutes)

07:45 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) in Malta

08:00 (CL) Chile Feb Nominal Wage M/M: 0.8%e v 1.1 % prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.4% prior

08:15 (UK) Baltic Dry Bulk Index

08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 250Ke v 258K prior; Continuing Claims: 2.03Me v 2.052M prior

08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Building Permits M/M: 1.3%e v 5.4% prior

08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales

09:00 (RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve w/e Mar 31st: No est v $399.0B prior

09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%

09:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Noregs) Gov Olsen

09:30 (US) Fed's William (non-voter)

09:30 IMF Financial Stability Report

10:20 (BR) Brazil Mar Vehicle Production: No est v 200.4K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 135.7K prior; Vehicle exports: No est v 66.3K prior

10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories

11:00 (US) Treasury announces for upcoming 3-year, 10-year and 30-year autions during week of Apr 10th

11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2023 LFT

11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2018, 2019 and 2020 LTN Bills

12:40 (BE) ECB's Praet (Belgium, chief economist)

13:15 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal)

19:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank (BRCP) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Reference Rate unchanged at 4.25%

USD/JPY - 110.80

Original strategy  :

Sell at 111.00, Target: 110.00, Stop: 111.35

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

New strategy  :

Sell at 111.10, Target: 110.10, Stop: 111.45

Position :  -

Target :  -

Stop : -

As the greenback ran into renewed selling interest at 111.46 and has dropped sharply, retaining our bearishness for the decline from 112.20 top to resume after consolidation, below 110.27 (this week’s low) would confirm and extend the fall from 112.20 to last week’s low at 110.11. Looking ahead, break there is needed to retain downside bias and confirm medium term decline has resumed for further subsequent fall to 109.80-85 (1.618 times projection of 112.20-111.12 measuring from 111.59) which is likely to hold on first testing.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell dollar on recovery as 111.00-10 should limit upside. Only above 111.46 resistance would abort and prolong choppy trading, risk rebound to 111.59, then towards 111.90-00 later but price should falter well below said resistance at 112.20.