GOLD - The commodity continues to retain its upside pressure leaving risk higher prices in the new week on the cards. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,230.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,220.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,210.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,200.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,240.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,250.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,260.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,270.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to strengthen further.

Nothing new this morning as markets open and we all get settled back in, but I just wanted to highlight this support/resistance level that we posted in Thursday's Oil blog:

Oil Hourly:

Remember that price still has a bit of room to move higher and still see the higher time frame level hold, so I don't know if this is the type of setup to be aggressively shorting, but the levels are definitely in play.

Being at the bottom of a higher time frame resistance zone, we were looking to possibly use this to level to short off and manage our risk around. But being at the very bottom of the higher time frame level also meant that the short term level could break higher and shorts still could be in play.

As you can see, the short term resistance level didn't hold and price broke up higher through it. What I did want to highlight though is the re-test of the short term level from the other side at the ‘red x'.

US stocks soared to new record high last week on resurgence of talk of president Donald Trump's expansive policies. In particular, bulls regained control after Trump said he would announce "phenomenal" tax reforms within two or three weeks. DJIA closed the week up 197.9 pts, or 0.99% at 20269.37. S&P 500 gained 18.7 pts or 0.81% for the week to close at 2316.10. NASDAQ rose 67.4 pts or 1.19% to close at 5734.13. All three major indices closed at record highs. The developments helped lift treasury yield from intra-week selloff. 10 year yield closed at 2.409 after dipping to 2.325, comparing to prior week's close at 2.491. Dollar was given a boost and ended as the second strongest major currency, next to Sterling. The Dollar index closed at 100.71, up from prior week's close at 99.73. Fed chair Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress will be a major focus this week. But Trump's tweets and any economy-related announcements will be the things that move markets.

Dollar Index Could Have Bottomed at 99.23

With the dollar index depended key support zone. There is growing prospect of a near term reversal. Despite dipping to 99.23 earlier this month, the index quickly recovered back above 99.43 support. Now, firstly, daily MACD has crossed above signal line already, acting as a early sign of bottoming. Secondly, the structure of the fall from 103.82 to 99.23 is consistent with the view that it's a correction. Immediate focus this week is on 101.02 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm that the correction has completed and turn outlook bullish for a test on 103.82 high. Rejection from 101.02 would bring another fall, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 95.88 to 103.82 at 98.91.

Yields Stayed in Consolidation

Dollar's near term fate will also depend on developments in treasury yields. Or at least, should be in sync with benchmark yields to confirm underlying momentum. 10 year yield defended 55 day EMA last week and recovered. So far, structure of the price actions from 2.621 is consistent with the view that it's a consolidation pattern. More upside is in favor this week in TNX. But the real obstacle is in 2.555 resistance. Decisive break there will very likely bring resumption of up trend from 1.336. Though, rejection from 2.555 will extend the consolidation from 2.621 with another falling leg.

Overbought DJIA Approaches Double Resistance Level

Meanwhile, there is an important factor that would limit the strength in yield and dollar, or even reverse last week's move. DJIA did extended its record run. However, firstly, it's now close to long term projection level at 61.8% projection of 10404.49 to 18351.36 from 15450.56 at 20361.72. Secondly, it's also close to the long term upper channel line. Thirdly, weekly RSI is clearly in overbought region. At this point, we don't seen any ground for powering through fibonacci and channel resistance. Hence, while we're staying bullish in stocks, we'll be very cautious in the next two weeks. And, a pull back in stocks will most likely pressure yields and Dollar again.

To conclude, at this point, we're not seeing any clear near term direction in the forex markets yet. While there are factors supporting Dollar to regain control, there are counter-factors too. We'll keep our hands off for another week. Probably, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and US president Donald Trump would clear up the uncertainties and set the tone for the rest of Q1.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's decline last week suggests that the corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0713 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We'd expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.

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EUR/USD's decline last week suggests that the corrective rise from 1.0339 has completed at 1.0828 already. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 1.0339 low. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of medium term down trend. On the upside, however, above 1.0713 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 1.3993 to 1.0461 from 1.1298 at 0.9115. On the upside, break of 1.1298 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) is still in progress and there is no clear sign of completion. We'd expect more downside towards 0.8223 (2000 low) as long as 1.1298 resistance holds.

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USD/JPY edged lower to 111.58 last but recovered. Correction from 118.65 could have completed at 111.58, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. Initial bias is cautiously on the upside this week for 115.36 minor resistance. Break will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 high next. In that case, the larger rally from 98.97 could be resuming.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.85 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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GBP/USD dipped to 1.2346 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Overall outlook remains unchanged. Price actions from 1.1946 are viewed as a consolidation pattern, with rise from 1.1986 as the third leg. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 1.2774 to bring larger down trend resumption. On the downside, below 1.2346 will revive the case that such consolidation is completed at 1.2705 already. In that case, intraday bias will turn back to the downside for retesting 1.1946 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.7190 is seen as part of the down trend from 2.1161. There is no sign of medium term bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 61.8% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 1.2457 will target 100% projection at 0.9532. Overall, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to confirm medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 is still in progress. Current momentum suggests that the down trend will go deeper than originally expected.

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USD/CHF's rebound from 0.9860 extended higher last week. The development indicates short term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Initial bias remains mildly on the upside this week. Sustained trading above 55 day EMA (now at 1.0038) will pave the way for a test on 1.0342 high. On the downside, below 0.9935 minor support will turn focus back to 0.9860 instead.

In the bigger picture, prior rejection from 1.0327 resistance argues that USD/CHF is staying in a medium term sideway pattern. In any case, decisive break of 1.0342 resistance is needed to confirm underlying strength. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral in the pair first. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 0.9443/9548 support zone. Meanwhile firm break of 1.0342 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1359.

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AUD/USD stayed in tight range below 0.7695 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Further rise cannot be ruled out yet. But lost of upside momentum is seen in bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. We'd expect strong resistance from 0.7777/7833 resistance zone to limit upside and bring near term reversal. On the downside, break of 0.7510 minor support will indicate that rise from 0.7158 has completed already and turn bias back to the downside for this key near term support level.

In the bigger picture, we're still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a correction. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seek to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8205) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we're not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We'll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

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USD/CAD's recovery last week mixed up the near term outlook. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 1.3387 resistance will confirm that fall from 1.3598 has completed at 1.2968. And more importantly, rise from 1.2460 is still in progress. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.3598 and above. On the downside, below 1.2968 will revive the case that rise from 1.2460 is completed and turn outlook bearish for this low. Overall, choppy rise from 1.2460 is still seen as a corrective move.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4689 medium term top are seen as a correction pattern. The first leg has completed at 1.2460. The second leg could be completed at 1.3598 and fall from there is tentatively seen as the third leg. Break of 1.2460 will target 50% retracement of 0.9460 to 1.4689 at 1.2075 before completing the correction. In case of another rise, we'd look for reversal signal above 61.8% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2460 at 1.3838.

In the longer term picture, rise from 0.9056 (2007 low) is viewed as a long term up trend. It's taking a breath after hitting 1.4689. But such rise expected to resume later to test 1.6196 down the road.

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GBP/JPY dipped to 138.53 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for 144.77 resistance. Overall, price actions for 148.42 are seen as developing into a corrective pattern. Above 144.77 will target 148.42 high. On the downside, below 139.79 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and extend the fall fro 144.77 through 138.53.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 122.36 medium term bottom are still seen as a corrective pattern. Main focus is on 38.2% retracement of 195.86 to 122.36 at 150.42. Rejection from there will turn the cross into medium term sideway pattern with a test on 122.36 low next. Though, sustained break of 150.42 will extend the rebound towards 61.8% retracement at 167.78.

In the longer term picture, while price actions from 122.36 would develop into a medium term correction, fall from 195.86 is still seen as resuming the down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Hence, after the correction from 122.36 completes we'd expect another fall through 116.83 low.

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