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Last week saw the release of quarterly earnings from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL). At the opening of Monday’s session — today, 2 February — the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) opened with a bearish gap, sliding towards the 25,100 level.

Why Is the Nasdaq 100 Falling?

While many of the Big Tech earnings reports were strong, the broader market reaction suggests that:

→ investors have become increasingly sceptical about massive capital expenditure (capex) on artificial intelligence, as seen in Microsoft’s case;

→ even solid results, such as those delivered by Apple, are no longer triggering rallies.

It appears that market participants are placing greater emphasis on uncertainties related to:

→ the new Fed Chair;

→ the risk of another US government shutdown;

→ rising geopolitical tensions (with Greenland, Iran and Ukraine potentially joined by Cuba).

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 Chart

When analysing Nasdaq 100 price action (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) six days ago, we:

→ identified an ascending channel (shown in blue);

→ considered a scenario involving another false bullish breakout following the move above the 13 January high;

→ anticipated a modest technical correction.

Since then:

→ the price has marginally extended the channel, while its slope has remained unchanged;

→ the index declined from the upper boundary to the lower boundary of the channel, with the median acting as resistance (as indicated by the arrow);

→ this was followed by a bearish break below the lower boundary.

As a result, Nasdaq 100 price action can now reasonably be viewed as a corrective phase, with the potential to evolve into a downward trajectory (shown by the red lines).

If bears are to maintain control, it would be logical for them to assert dominance over the area around 25,500 — the zone where the ascending channel was broken.

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USDJPY rose to 154.98 on Monday, with the yen continuing to fall. Pressure on the currency increased after statements by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Over the weekend, the politician noted that a weak yen could be a significant advantage for export industries, indicating that Takaichi continues to favour a softer exchange rate. She later clarified that her comments concerned the need to build an economy resistant to currency fluctuations.

On Friday, the yen lost about 1% against the dollar after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman. The market regarded this choice as more "hawkish", supporting the dollar and adding to the pressure on the yen.
An additional factor of uncertainty remains the upcoming extraordinary vote in the lower house of parliament on 8 February. Takaichi's ruling party is expected to strengthen its position and advance expansive fiscal policies, increasing the risk of higher borrowing. Against this background, both Japanese government bonds and the yen were under pressure last month.

Expectations of fiscal stimulus and discussion of tax breaks increase the burden on public finances and restrain demand for the national currency.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, a corrective rebound follows after a sharp drop from the 158.50–159.00 area. The price recovered from a low in the 152.00 zone and is testing the 155.50 area, but remains below medium-term resistance. The structure still looks corrective inside the broader downward phase until the quotes settle above 156.50–157.00.

The H1 chart shows that after a sharp decline, the pair entered a recovery phase and has been sequentially updating local maxima. The price climbed above the 153.26–153.88 zone and is trading along the upper end of the Bollinger Bands, indicating continued near-term momentum. A slowdown is observed near the 155.50–155.60 level, with a possible pause or pullback within the ongoing correction.

Conclusion

In summary, the USDJPY rebound is primarily a technical correction within a broader bearish context for the yen. The move is exacerbated by political commentary favouring a weaker currency and reinforced by a hawkish Fed appointment. While near-term momentum persists, the pair faces significant resistance ahead. The fundamental backdrop of anticipated expansive fiscal policy in Japan continues to apply structural pressure on the yen, suggesting the current recovery may be limited in scope before the larger downtrend potentially resumes.

• The US Dollar cheered Warsh's nomination for Fed chair.
• Precious metals plunged as investors lost interest in debasement trade.

Speculations and the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to become Fed chair have allowed the US dollar to find its footing. In the past, this former FOMC official has shown himself to be a ‘hawk’. Markets saw his appointment as a reduction in the risks of the central bank losing its independence and returned to fundamentals for a while. The greenback is backed by a strong US economy and a prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary expansion.

The explosive rally of the EUR/USD is beginning to cause discontent at the European Central Bank. Investors recall the speech by Vice-President Luis de Guindos. In 2025, he argued that with the euro at $1.2 and above, the eurozone economy would have a hard time. The head of the Bank of Austria, Martin Kocher, believes that the ECB will be forced to act by cutting rates if the euro continues to strengthen, which damages its inflation plans. His colleague from France, François Villeroy de Galhau, claims that the Governing Council will take Forex events into account when making decisions on interest rates.

Bloomberg experts do not expect the ECB to change them at its meeting on 5 February. Although most still agree that the next step will be a rate hike, fewer of them expect this to happen this year. However, the EUR/USD rally may adjust these forecasts. There are big bets in the currency market that the European Central Bank will return to easing monetary policy. On paper, it has no target for the euro exchange rate, but a strengthening currency will hamper the export-oriented economy.

The strengthening of the US Dollar has allowed the USD/JPY to rise. Investors are asking themselves whether Japan's currency interventions would be effective if it acted alone, without the US. Finance Minister Scott Bessent made it clear that the Americans were not involved.

Kevin Warsh's nomination to Fed chair had a sobering effect on gold. Its collapse from record highs showed the overly speculative nature of the previous rally. It was based on debasement trading, fuelled by mistrust of the White House's policies and the US dollar. However, if the Fed's independence remains intact, the market will begin to ask an uncomfortable question. Has its rally gone too far too fast?

UK PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 51.8 in January, up from December’s 50.6 and marking a 17-month high. The reading signals a solid start to 2026 for the sector, showing resilience despite a challenging backdrop of geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty.

According to Rob Dobson of S&P Global Market Intelligence, growth momentum improved notably. Output and order books expanded at a faster pace, while new export business rose for the first time in four years, led by demand from Europe, China, and the US. Business confidence also rebounded, reaching its highest level since before the 2024 Autumn Budget, as firms focused on opportunities ahead rather than near-term policy and geopolitical risks.

The labor market picture showed tentative stabilization. Although hiring remained weak, the pace of job cuts slowed to its mildest in 15 months. That said, inflation pressures are resurfacing, with higher Minimum Wage and employer National Insurance costs feeding through supply chains alongside rising metals prices, posing a potential constraint on margins in coming months.

Full UK PMI manufacturing final release here.

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.5 in January, up from December’s 48.8. According to Cyrus de la Rubia of Hamburg Commercial Bank, progress remains at a "snail’s pace". Order intakes continued to fall, albeit at a less severe pace than late last year, while sentiment twelve months ahead improved slightly, suggesting firms are cautiously more optimistic about future production.

The regional picture remains highly uneven. Greece led with a PMI of 54.2, a five-month high, while France surprised on the upside at 51.2 (a 43-month high). Germany showed tentative stabilization, with contraction easing to a three-month high of 49.1. In contrast, Italy (48.1)remained firmly in contraction, Austria (47.2) deteriorated sharply, and Spain (49.2) slipped into its second consecutive month of decline after previously outperforming peers.

Cost pressures also re-emerged as a key theme. Input price inflation rose noticeably, driven in part by a sharp increase in natural gas prices and firmer oil costs. At the same time, higher prices for industrial metals may reflect strengthening global demand rather than pure supply stress.

Full Eurozone PMI manufacturing final release here.

According to media reports, the silver market has experienced its largest price drop since 1980.

Notably, it is difficult to identify a single powerful fundamental catalyst that could clearly explain the move from the 29 January high near $120 to today’s low around $72 (approximately −40%). The geopolitical backdrop remains tense, with risks related to Iran, Greenland, Ukraine and other regions still very much in play.

The media point to a cascade of long-position liquidations, a view that aligns with the analytical conclusions of our article “For the First Time In History, the Price of Silver Has Exceeded $115”, published five days ago.

At that time, we:

→ reaffirmed the primary ascending channel and highlighted a surge in volatility during the A→B move from the upper boundary of the channel;

→ suggested that “smart money” was using broad market participation to lock in profits on long positions after an extraordinary rally (more than +200% over the past six months). In Wyckoff terms, this corresponded to a distribution phase.

These assumptions were subsequently confirmed by:

→ a brief push above the A high (the UTAD pattern — Upthrust After Distribution);

→ a sharp increase in bearish pressure. As a result, around the turn of the week, XAG/USD decisively broke not only the channel median but also its lower boundary.

Within the framework of Wyckoff methodology, this price action in silver can be interpreted as follows:

→ “smart money” has completed the distribution of long positions and shifted to selling into the market;

→ retail traders’ positions are being liquidated en masse, accelerating the decline.

In other words, following the Distribution phase, the market has entered the Mark-Down phase. The speed and violence of recent price moves — making timely decision-making particularly difficult — further support this interpretation.

Therefore, even if silver attempts a rebound under the current conditions of extreme oversoldness, any recovery is likely to face a strong resistance zone in the $87.5–95 area. This is where bears previously held a clear advantage while breaking the long-term ascending channel.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 211.07; (P) 211.78; (R1) 212.53; More...

Consolations continues in GBP/JPY and intraday bias stays neutral. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 214.83 holds, even in case of strong recovery. Below 209.61, and sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 209.27) will argue that it's correcting whole rise from 184.35 and target 38.2% retracement of 184.35 to 214.83 at 203.18.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, break of 205.30 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.78; (P) 183.42; (R1) 184.06; More...

EUR/JPY is staying in consolidations above 181.76 and intraday bias stays neutral. Risk remains on the downside as long as 186.86 holds, in case of strong recovery. Break of 181.76 and sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 182.31) should solidify the case that fall from 186.86 medium term top is correcting whole rise from 154.77. Deeper decline should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 186.86 at 174.60.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 114.42 (2020 low) is in progress and and met 61.8% projection of 124.37 to 175.41 from 154.77 at 186.31. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, upside could be capped by 186.31 on first attempt. Still, outlook will stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 173.32) holds, even in case of deep pullback. Sustained break of 186.31 will pave the way to 78.6% projection at 194.88 next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8655; (P) 0.8663; (R1) 0.8676; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains neutral it's still bounded in sideway trading. Risk stays on the downside with 0.8744 resistance intact. Further decline is expected to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618). Decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications and pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8466.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8625) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6947; (P) 1.7016; (R1) 1.7091; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.7232 resistance should confirm strong support from 100% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6851. Intraday bias will be back to the upside for 1.7466 support and above. However, decisive break of 1.6851 will likely bring downside acceleration to 138.2% projection at 1.6351 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 is seen as correction to up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922 to bring rebound. However, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.7442) holds. Sustained break of 1.6922 will raise the chance of bearish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.5913.