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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9144; (P) 0.9160; (R1) 0.9175; More....

EUR/CHF recovered after hitting 161.8% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9143 and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.9235 to bring another fall. Decisive break of 0.9143 will extend larger down trend to 261.8% projection at 0.9017.

In the bigger picture, another rejection by 55 W EMA (now at 0.9350) keeps outlook bearish. Downtrend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9178 will target 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

Key takeaways

• Gold has entered a disorderly liquidation phase: Driven primarily by forced unwinding of leveraged long positions rather than a shift in Fed policy expectations.
• Margin hikes and order flows, not Fed politics, are the real catalyst: CME’s increase in gold and silver futures margin requirements sharply raised capital costs, choking off bullish risk appetite and triggering cascading sell-offs, while US 2-year yields signal no hawkish repricing.
• Near-term setup favours a tactical bounce, with clear risk levels: Gold is approaching the critical US$4,405 support, reinforced by multiple technical confluences and extreme volatility readings; a hold above this level opens scope for a minor mean-reversion rebound, while a break lower signals further downside.

The price actions of Gold (XAU/US) have staged the expected corrective decline on last Friday, 30 January 2026, to hit the second intermediate support at US$4,757 as highlighted.

The yellow precious metal printed an intraday low at US$4,679 and closed the US session at US$4,895 on Friday, 30 January 2026, recording a daily loss of 9%, its steepest drop since 1983.

Order flows are the main catalyst for the steep losses, not Kevin Warsh

Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasury yield medium-term trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Several media reports have highlighted that US President Trump’s official announcement to nominate ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair is likely the driver that triggered the rampant sell-off in gold and silver due to his past remarks on his preference for a smaller US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which may lead to an indirect tightening of liquidity conditions.

However, the US Treasury market does not imply such a narrative that “Kevin Warsh is going to be a new hawkish Fed Chair”.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy stance, did not trade higher last Friday; instead, it dropped by 4 basis points to close lower at 3.52%, and remained below the medium-term range resistance of 3.63% in place since 30 October 2025 (see Fig. 1).

In today’s Asia session, 2 February 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to extend its losses by 9% to print an intraday low of US$4.402 at the time of writing due to a hike in metal futures margins announced by CME Group over the weekend.

COMEX gold futures margins (1oz) are raised from 6 per cent to 8 per cent, while COMEX 5000 silver futures (SI) are set to increase to 15 per cent from 11 per cent.

Hence, such increases in margin requirements are likely lead to a further unwinding of speculative long positions in Gold and Silver.

Higher capital outlays to sustain or extend long positions abruptly choked off bullish risk appetite, unleashing a cascading liquidation in Gold (XAU/USD).

Let's now look at the short-term technical chart to decipher the near-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory

Short-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor mean reversion rebound after overextended decline

Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Watch the US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,742 (also the 20-day moving average) is likely to increase the odds of a minor mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,942 and US$5,169 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 26 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 intraday low) (see Fig. 2).

However, a break and an hourly close below US$4,405 invalidates the minor bullish recovery scenario for a further extension of the corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,285 and US$4,129.

Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias

• The US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support is defined by a confluence of different elements that point to a similar level of around US$4,405; the 50-day moving average, the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025, and a Fibonacci extension of the current drop, measured from the current all-time high of 29 January 2026.
• Hourly Bollinger Bandwidth has spiked to an extreme 15.25, indicating a volatility climax and suggesting the recent price sell-off is overextended in the near term.

GBP/USD is showing positive signs above 1.3580 and 1.3620. EUR/GBP declined and is now consolidating losses below 0.8700.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound rallied above 1.3700 and 1.3800 before there was a pullback.
• There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3760 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
• EUR/GBP is trading in a bearish zone below the 0.8690 pivot level.
• There is a key expanding triangle forming with resistance near 0.8680 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained well-bid above 1.3500. The British Pound started a decent increase above 1.3650 against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to push the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.3750. The pair even climbed above 1.3800 and traded as high as 1.3869. Recently, there was a pullback below 1.3760 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3401 swing low to the 1.3869 high.

The pair is now consolidating below 1.3750. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.3760. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near 1.3725.

The next hurdle for the bulls could be 1.3760. A close above 1.3760 could open the doors for a move toward 1.3870. Any more gains might send GBP/USD toward 1.4000.

On the downside, the bulls might remain active near the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3635. If there is a downside break below 1.3635, the pair could accelerate lower. The first major support is at 1.3510, below which the pair could test 1.3480.

The next key area for the bulls could be 1.3400, below which the pair could test 1.3320. Any more losses could lead the pair toward 1.3250.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above 0.8725. The Euro traded below 0.8690 against the British Pound.

The EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair even declined below 0.8660 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 0.8641, and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a move above 0.8650 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.8716 swing high to the 0.8641 low.

The pair is now facing resistance near a key expanding triangle at 0.8680 and the 50% Fib retracement. The next major barrier for the bulls could be 0.8690.

A close above 0.8690 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8715. Any more gains might send the pair toward the 0.8725 pivot.

Immediate support sits near 0.8650. The first key zone sits at 0.8640. A downside break below 0.8640 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 0.8600.

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In our 21 January note, titled “Bitcoin Falls Below $90k: Why Does It Matter?”, we confirmed the relevance of a system of two trend channels and highlighted that the price was sitting at the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel, which had previously acted as strong support in 2025.

In that analysis, we:

→ examined the fundamental drivers behind the price decline;

→ identified a series of bearish signals reflected in BTC/USD price swings;

→ pointed to persistent selling pressure and a growing risk of a support break.

As the Bitcoin price chart shows since then:

→ the lower boundary proved its role as support once more, triggering a rebound (marked by an arrow) on 25–26 January;

→ however, bullish momentum only carried the price up to the psychological $90k level, which acted as resistance on 28 January.

Following this, Bitcoin began to move lower. During the decline, the price successfully broke the key support level, with accelerating downward momentum in BTC/USD confirming that the support had lost its strength.

The lower boundary of the red channel may still act as support, while a potential break below November’s low could trigger panic. In the coming days, a local recovery toward the red channel’s median is possible, especially after signs of oversold conditions.

Overall, the long-term ascending channel on the BTC/USD chart is losing relevance, while the descending trend is becoming increasingly dominant.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

Going into the weekend, market dominos fell in place for an overdue correction on a stretched metals/USD debasement trade. It’s not clear what domino piece went down first. Gold, silver but also copper already showed signs of vertigo on Thursday. The dollar rebound was at that time still limited, but the greenback gained traction on Friday. The announcement of Kevin Warsh to be the new Fed chair also helped the correction. It removed uncertainty and the new Fed governor maybe isn’t a bad choice concerning the debate on Fed independence. Whatever the trigger, metals including gold, silver copper and others fell prey to profit taking. The mirroring image was a rebound of the dollar. DXY closed the week at 97.00, to be compared with a 95.55 low on Tuesday. EUR/USD closed at 1.1855, returning below the previous top of 1.1919. The correction in safe havens like gold and silver didn’t help US equities. The Nasdaq lost 0.94%. US interest rate markets don’t draw any firm conclusions on Fed policy after Warsh’s appointment. The US yield curve steepened slightly (2-y: -3.7 bp; 30-y: +2 bps). German yields changed less than one bp even as some national inflation data (Spain, Germany) printed slightly higher than expected.

Friday’s correction in commodities (gold, silver, copper, oil) but also equities continues this morning. The dollar maintains most of last week’s gain, but the rebound slows. Commodity-related currencies (AUD, NOK) are ceding ground. The fate of this repositioning remains the focus for global trading at the start of the week. However markets this week also get the usual US economic update, to begin with the manufacturing ISM (today), JOLTS job openings (tomorrow), ADP job growth and services ISM (Wed) and the payrolls on Friday. Data might (or might not) validate the Fed’s view that the economy is growing at a solid pace and that the labour market stabilizes. Data probably have to be very weak for the Fed to leave its wait-and-see bias. Warsh looking over Powell’s shoulder won’t change that. Last week’s better than expected EMU growth data and national inflation data also suggest the ECB can consider itself being in a good place to watch and see. At Thursday’s ECB meeting, markets probably will look for the ECB’s assessment on recent (geopolitical) turmoil, including the impact of a weaker dollar/stronger euro. We also keep an eye at the policy meetings of the likes of the Czech National bank, the National Bank of Poland and the Reserve Bank of Australia. The CNB will likely keep its policy rate at 3.5%, but is there room left for an additional finetuning cut? The NBP decision probably will be a close call (unchanged at 4% or 3.75%). Also Tuesday’s policy decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will receive more than average attention. Will the RBA (have to) backtrack on earlier easing as inflation fails to return to target as hoped? For the Bank of England (expected unchanged at 3.75%) it’s probably too early to already front run on hoped for easing of inflation.

News and views

S&P raised Italy’s rating outlook to positive from stable and confirmed the rating at BBB+. The rating agency praised the country’s resilience amidst trade and tariff uncertainty, its ability to post net current account surpluses and the continuous improvements in Italy’s net external creditor position. Budgetary consolidation is gradually advancing, allowing for a projected headline deficit below the European Union’s 3% target in 2026. The numbers are still due for release, but it’s expected that Italy’s deficit already dropped below that mark last year. S&P expects debt-to-GDP to have come in at 136% last year. That is elevated, the agency says, but should start to decline from 2028 onwards. Italy is forecasted to grow steadily over the next three years, be it more slowly than peers.

India in its new budget unveiled on Sunday is sticking to budgetary prudence. It steered clear from big-ticket, economy-boosting spending measures and instead focused on shielding the country from rising global risks. The budget is packed with support for embittered exporters (hurt by 50% US levies) and contains more backing for strategic sectors such as rare earths, semiconductors and critical minerals to boost self-reliance. The spending plan also contains infrastructure spending and an 18% hike in defense expenditure. These measures come along with intentions to cut red tape to do business easier and improve productivity. The deficit under the this budget is expected to ease marginally from 4.4% to 4.3%. Indian stocks during a special session yesterday slumped in a move widely attributed to an equity transaction tax hike. USD/INR this morning declines to 91.61, still close to the 92 record high (INR low) seen and last week.

Those who hoped that Friday’s sharp drop in gold and silver prices — which shed 9% off gold and 27% off silver — would slow this Monday woke up to another nightmare this morning. Both metals are heavily sold in Asia, suggesting that leveraged positions and stop losses have not yet been fully cleared.

There has been a lot of speculation in recent weeks, and that speculative air is now coming out quite violently.

Looking at levels, for gold, I had been pointing to a possible correction toward the $4’600–4’800 range in the event of a sell-off, and we are hovering near $4’600 per ounce support this morning. I must admit that the sell-off has been far more brutal than I — and many — expected. This morning, the minor 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from October 2023 to last week has been cleared.

Given the high volatility and the size of leveraged positions, the sell-off could deepen toward the 50-DMA (currently near $4’480) and potentially further to the 200-DMA (currently near $4’235). The key technical level I am watching sits lower, at $4’115 — the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally since late 2023. This level should hold if the “Sell America, Sell the Dollar” theme remains in play amid waning trust in White House trade and geopolitical policies.

For silver, the rally on the way up was faster than gold’s, so the correction on the way down is faster too. Silver was down more than 26% on Friday, another 13% this morning, and losses are being printed faster than I can finish my sentence. Overall, it has given back nearly 40% since last week’s peak at the time of writing.

More importantly, silver has slipped below two key technical levels: the 50-DMA and the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The latter suggests silver has entered a bearish consolidation phase, with the risk of deeper losses before the correction slows.

How deep? The next key level is the 50% retracement, just below $70 per ounce — a psychological level that could act as a speed bump and attract dip buyers. Below that, the major 61.8% retracement at $57.80 per ounce would be another level to watch.

Whether the latest sell-off in metals becomes an opportunity for a fresh start — especially for those who missed the rally — will depend on several factors, including the US dollar.

The US dollar has been better bid since Friday, with the dollar index rebounding around 1% off four-year lows following news that the Federal Reserve may have a new Chair. Kevin Warsh was chosen to be the next Fed President and will replace Jerome Powell if confirmed.

The nomination ends months of speculation over who would lead the Fed next and offers clues about the future policy direction. Based on his past views, Mr Warsh has been critical of the Fed’s leadership and its relentlessly expanding balance sheet. He has also voiced strong concerns about inflation eroding purchasing power while inflating asset prices.

As such, he is expected to favour balance sheet reduction for bringing inflation down. And there is scope to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet substantially! Before 2008, the balance sheet stood below $1 trillion, peaked near $9 trillion in 2022, and now sits around $6.5 trillion. That could mark the end of the era of free money for markets — and that is bad news.

A balance sheet reduction could pose a major challenge for long-dated US bonds and US equity indices that have enjoyed a multi-decade climb. The knee-jerk reaction to the Warsh news was a spike in the US 10-year yield, which has eased this morning, partly as flows exit metals. But over a longer horizon — 12 months and beyond — a smaller Fed balance sheet would add upward pressure on long maturity yields.

Regarding rate cuts... the market reaction in the US 2-year yield suggests markets still expect rate cuts, betting that balance sheet reduction — combined with AI-driven productivity gains — could ultimately lower inflation. I won’t lie: I agree. The Fed’s monstrous balance sheet was always going to be addressed. It just might be happening now.

So what does that mean for equities? Could lower rates offset the impact of a smaller Fed balance sheet? It all depends on how quickly that balance sheet shrinks. The US — and global — economy has become deeply addicted to central bank buying, and weaning markets off free money could be so painful that some think the Fed’s balance sheet could ultimately end up larger under Warsh than before. Time will tell.

US equities are poised to start the week with a sharp sell-off, despite falling yields. Risk-off dominates the narrative — ironically triggered in part by the collapse in gold. If gold cannot protect investors during a sell-off, what can?

The Swiss franc? The USDCHF is trading below 0.78, raising questions about whether negative rates could return in Switzerland this year.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are expected to stand pat this week, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike. Policy divergence should create attractive FX opportunities.

In equities, it is a heavy earnings week: Palantir and Disney today, AMD tomorrow, Google and Qualcomm on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday. Even strong results from Meta, Microsoft and Apple have failed to fully revive bullish sentiment. Investors are increasingly selective, scrutinising whether cloud growth is truly AI-driven and whether AI investments are delivering real returns. Earnings will not be a walk in the park.

In focus this week

Monetary policy meetings are scattered throughout the week with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on Tuesday, National Bank of Poland on Wednesday and the Bank of England and ECB on Thursday. We expect the RBA to deliver its first 25bp rate hike after three cuts seen in 2025. Analyst consensus is also expecting a hike, and markets are pricing around 75% probability for the increase. For the ECB, we expect them to leave the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00% in line with market pricing, with Lagarde refraining from giving new policy signals. Read more in our ECB Preview - Stronger euro? No problem, 30 January.

Today, January manufacturing PMIs are set for release for the euro area and UK, alongside the ISM manufacturing figures for the US. We expect the final euro area manufacturing PMI data to confirm the flash print which rebounded slightly to 49.4. In the US, flash PMI and the regional Fed indices that were released earlier have signalled improving, but still subdued growth.

Rounding off the week on Friday, the US labour market will be in the spotlight. We expect January nonfarm payrolls to release at +60k (cons: +78k, prior, +50k) pointing to a modest increase, yet a clear cooling compared to earlier last year. We expect the unemployment rate at 4.4% in line with the market consensus (cons: 4.4%, prior 4.4%).

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In China, Chinese PMIs for January were a mixed bag but continue to point to muddling through for the Chinese economy. The official NBS PMI manufacturing dropped from 50.1 to 49.3 (consensus 50.1) whereas the private RatingDog PMI manufacturing increased from 50.1 to 50.3 (consensus 50.0). The details show the difference is due to export orders where NBS PMI dropped slightly while RatingDog PMI increased. Other details of interest was a rise in the PMI output price index from both sources above 50 suggesting the deflationary pressures are easing. Employment hung on to gains from previous months giving some rays of light for the consumers. But the construction PMI nose-dived from 47.4 to 40.1 after some improvement in recent months.

In Japan, Nikkei manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.5 in January, confirming the flash print, and up from 50 in December, signalling the first expansion since June. The increase was the strongest improvement since August 2022, driven by an increase in new orders, including exports, while output and employment increased notably.
What happened over the weekend

In the US, President Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. As a previous Fed governor, Warsh obtained a hawkish reputation, however, leading up to the nomination he has aligned with Trump in the push for lower interest rates. The nomination of Warsh still awaits Senate approval, where a majority is required for him to be instated.

The PPI increased by 0.5% m/m (cons: 0.2% m/m, prior: 0.2%), the largest increase in five months. The larger-than-expected increase was driven by the service sector, while the goods market remained unchanged.

On Saturday, the US entered a government shutdown after the House of Representatives failed to meet the deadline for passing the appropriations bill, despite the Senate approving it with a 71-29 vote. Following last week's escalations in Minnesota, where two US citizens were killed, the Senate separated funding for the Department of Homeland Security from the broader spending package in order to approve. This approach ensures continued funding for other federal agencies once passed by the House, granting Congress two weeks to negotiate the remaining funding for the Department of Homeland Security. The House is expected to address the spending package on Monday, with the shutdown potentially ending on Tuesday.

In Finland, Scope downgraded the Finnish credit rating to AA from AA+. Finland's public debt ratio has continued to rise and is now projected by the Finnish Finance Ministry to exceed 97% by 2030, which is 4 pp higher than Scope expected last August. Finland is also being placed under the European Union's Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP). However, the debt brake agreement, supported by nearly all political parties in Finland, might ease concerns about insufficient fiscal consolidation.

In the euro area, the economy grew more than expected in the final quarter of 2025 and unemployment fell. Real GDP growth came in at 0.3% q/q (cons: 0.2% q/q, prior: 0.3% q/q). The surprise was driven by stronger-than-expected growth in Germany, Spain, and Italy while France grew as expected - still at a modest pace. As growth seems to be driven by consumption and it was broad-based in the eurozone, this is a hawkish surprise for the ECB that forecasted 0.2% q/q growth. Data on the unemployment was also hawkish with the unemployment rate ticking down to 6.2% in December from 6.3% due to a reduction in the number of unemployed by 60k. These data releases support the "good place" assessment of the ECB and cements our expectations of an unchanged decision at the coming meetings.

In Norway, retail sales declined by 0.7% m/m in December, slightly below our estimate of 0.5% m/m and a decline from the 1.2% m/m revised increase in November. The decline was broad-based across goods and due to Black Week shifting Christmas trades. Retail sales rose 3.2% y/y in December marking the weakest growth since May.

In Sweden, December retail sales declined as expected by 0.7% m/m, after a 1.1% m/m increase in November. Retail sales increased by 1.5% y/y, down from a revised increase in November of 6.9% y/y primarily driven by Black week sales.

In China, manufacturing PMI came in below consensus at 49.3 in January, a drop from 50.1 in December. Non-manufacturing PMI declined to 49.4 from 50.2 in December, resulting in its lowest levels since December 2022, although January historically is a slower period.

Equities: Global equities were marginally lower on Friday, recording a -0.4% decline, in what at face value could look like a classic risk-off mode with a continuation of last week's equity rotation, with large caps faring better than small caps. The S&P 500 closed -0.4%, Nasdaq -0.9%, and Russell 2000 down more than 2%.

FI and FX: While US yields showed no clear direction on Friday, UST10y has dropped from 4,25% to 4.21% this morning. The USD strengthened broadly on Friday after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as new Fed Chair and EUR/USD slipped from just below 1.20 to around 1.1850. Meanwhile, USD/JPY moved from 153 to 155 after dovish remarks from PM Takaichi, and cable slipped from above 1.38 to below 1.37. The SEK traded poorly going into January close amid broad dollar strength, risk-off and SEK-negative rebalancing flows, where EUR/SEK gained five, and USD/SEK ten figures in the last hours on Friday. The NOK underperformed in a similar fashion. EUR/SEK is now at 10.58 and EURNOK at 11.47.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3525; (P) 1.3575; (R1) 1.3669; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD is turned neutral with current recovery and some consolidations would be seen above 1.3480. Further decline is in favor as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.3664) holds. Below 1.3480 will target 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. However, firm break of 55 4H EMA will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.3805) instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6917; (P) 0.6986; (R1) 0.7033; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for consolidations below 0.7093. Risk will stay on the upside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6914) holds. Above 0.7093 will extend larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213 next. Nevertheless, break of 55 4H EMA will confirm short term topping, and bring lengthier consolidations before rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1809; (P) 1.1892; (R1) 1.1934; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral and more consolidations would be seen. Downside of retreat should be contained by 1.1835 support. Decisive break above 1.2 will carry larger bullish implications. Next near term target will be 38.2% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1917 from 1.1576 at 1.3434. However, break of 1.1835 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1458) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.