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• Natural Gas explodes to up 70% since the Friday close
• Supply bottlenecks, geopolitical tensions and oversold prices build a cocktail for price explosion
• Exploring Technical Levels for Natural Gas

Natural Gas, historically highly correlated with WTI Oil, has largely decoupled over the past four sessions.

While the weekly correlation ranged between 0.20 and 1.00 since 2020, it has turned close to negative in late 2025.

Since the Sunday open, US Natural Gas prices have exploded by approximately 60%.

While initially attributed to fears of European supply disruptions amid recent EU-US trade tensions, the reality is more complex.

US output sits at decade lows.

Persistently low prices have disincentivized production following the record output of 2023-2024, creating a supply bottleneck just as the Northern Hemisphere enters its coldest period.

This winter differs significantly from recent years. Previous warm seasons created storage gluts and led to assumptions that milder winters were the new norm. However, the current reality is harsh (This current winter is a cold one, based in Montreal I can only confirm), challenging those assumptions.

Simultaneously, power generation demand is surging.

The need to power AI data centers and metal smelting operations—sectors currently seeing high demand—is outpacing futures delivery schedules, fueling this price acceleration.

Stress on the system is amplified by the US's role as the world's leading LNG exporter, particularly to Europe following the closure of Russian supply routes.

Consequently, demand spikes or supply troughs in Europe now have immediate impacts on US spot prices.

The market is facing a perfect storm: a severe winter, rising global energy demand, and escalating tensions between key suppliers and constrained consumers.

Add to this the instability in Iran—holder of the second-largest proven gas reserves—and persistent global conflicts, and the result is an explosive mix for prices.

We will now dive into the Natural Gas charts, ranging from daily to intraday timeframes, to identify the trajectory of this squeeze, potential retracement levels, and historical context.

Natural Gas Multi-Timeframe Technical Analysis

Weekly Chart

Natural Gas (ETF) Weekly Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Natural Gas is posting a gigantic Bullish Marabozu candle (which doesn't show any wicks) indicating high pressure to the current Market.

Now breaking outside of its 2024 Upward Channel, further upside could easily be warranted.

The RSI is quickly moving to overbought levels and the daily action faces a short-term challenge at the 2022 Pivotal Resistance ($5.25 to $5.50).

Current prices remain about 40% to the 20-Week MA highs (which got up to $7.194)!

To trade Natural gas with close precision and further clues on physical supply/demand balances, keep a close eye on the EIA's daily reports – Today In Energy.

Moving averages will be long to catch up to such a squeeze and won't serve as ideal technical indicators on higher timeframes (Weekly, Daily).

One may rather look for support and resistance levels and Fibonacci-retracements for entries and exits.

Daily Chart and Technical Levels

Natural Gas (ETF) Daily Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView

The 75% rise since Friday close is a frightening picture – This weekly close will be very key for upcoming action. See why on the intraday timeframe just below.

Levels of interest for Natural Gas trading

Resistance Levels

• $5.30 to $5.50 Immediate Resistance
• $5.68 Session and Weekly Highs
• 2022 Key Pivot (As Resistance) $6.00 to $6.20
• December 2022 Resistance level $6.60 to $6.95
• August 2022 Record $10.15
• ATH in 2005 at $15.51

Support Levels

• $5.00 to $5.20 Break-Retest support
• $5.00 Psychological mini-support
• $4.60 to $4.75 Major Momentum Pivot (61.8% Fib)
• $4.20 Pivotal Support ($4.10 4H MA 50)
• $3.60 Monday Support and 200-Day MA
• $3.00 August 2025 Support

2H Chart

Natural Gas (ETF) 2H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView

Despite the extreme squeeze throughout the past few days, the action is reacting to some overbought levels and marking intermediate tops.

With the current $5.67 Wick being rejected, Nat Gas is reacting well to the $5.30 to $5.50 Resistance Zone, which will act as key barometer for bull/bear strength:

• Breaking above on the Daily hints at a quick test of the $6.00 Resistance
• Remaining here indicates a short-term pullback to the $5.00-$5.20 Break-Retest support – Look at the 2H 20-period MA.
  • Correcting then bouncing from there would be the most sustainable bull-path for the commodity
• Breaking the $5.00 Support however should see a calmer price-action, extending the potential correction to $4.60 which will be an interesting Pivotal Support area.

Safe Trades!

Personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) in November, up from 0.1% m/m in October (also released today) and slightly below expectations. On an inflation adjusted basis, personal income was up just 0.1% m/m in November, and down 0.1% in October.

Consumer spending grew by 0.5% month-over-month in nominal terms, matching the pace seen in October and aligning with market expectations. After adjusting for inflation, the real spending rose by 0.3% m/m in both October and November.

Examining the broad categories, spending on both goods and services rose in real terms in both October and November. Spending on goods rose by 0.6% in November, following a 0.4% m/m gain in October. Spending on services increased by 0.3% in November, following a 0.2% gain in the prior month.

With spending outpacing income, the personal saving rate declined to 3.5% in November, down from 3.7% in the prior month and 4.9% a year ago. This marks the first time saving rate dipped below 4% since 2022.

Inflation remains persistently elevated above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – rose by 0.2% in both October and November, on par with the pace seen prior to the shutdown. In annual terms, core PCE inflation was up 2.8% year-over-year in November, up slightly from 2.7% pace seen in October.

Key Implications

Personal spending was robust through the first two months of Q4 2025, echoing other indicators, such as retail sales, and suggesting that consumer spending remained more resilient throughout the lengthy government shutdown than expected. In volume terms, consumer spending was up 0.6% from September, putting our estimate of Q4 2025 PCE growth at 3.0% (annualized) – not much slower than the 3.5% pace seen in Q3 but considerably higher than originally projected. It was also notable that spending continued to outpace income, with saving rate falling to levels not seen since late-2022 when core measures of inflation were around their peak. Evidently, households are saving less or dipping into their savings to maintain the spending momentum, particularly during the period where some payments were disrupted by the government shutdown.

We expect consumer spending to remain robust at the start of 2026. Consumers should benefit from past interest rate cuts, some stabilization in the labor market, and ongoing accumulation in wealth. The fiscal boost from higher OBBBA-linked tax refunds—which are expected to arrive between February and April—should also provide another tailwind to household income and spending. This robust spending momentum and steady inflationary backdrop provide the FOMC with reasons to remain patient regarding further rate cuts when its members meet next week.

Market Overview

The crypto market cap grew by less than 1% to $3.04 trillion. Since October, it has become the norm for cryptocurrencies to pay particular attention to negative news and react weakly to positive news. This time, the impressive rebound in stock markets only helped stop the sell-off in the crypto market and led to a modest rebound in cryptocurrencies from local lows. The momentum of the rebound was not even enough to overcome the 50-day moving average, underscoring the current dominance of bearish sentiment in the crypto market.

The sentiment index further highlights the extreme fear, losing 41 points over the last seven days of decline. After touching the greed zone last week, profit-taking emerged. While risk sentiment improved following developments in Davos yesterday, it was not strong enough to trigger a sustainable rebound in crypto.

Bitcoin jumped from $87K to above $90K at the end of the day on Wednesday, but has since faced active selling as it approaches the round level, although it has not experienced significant declines due to increased risk appetite. Technically, BTC remains just below its 50-day moving average and below the former support line of the uptrend. Despite yesterday’s retreat from local lows in Bitcoin, the picture remains bearish with a higher chance of a resumption of the decline, at least to $84K, and to $80K with a more extreme downward momentum.

News Background

Markets have gone into ‘defensive mode’ due to economic turmoil in Japan and political tensions, according to QCP Capital. Instead of acting as a hedge, the first cryptocurrency is behaving like a risky asset, sensitive to interest rates and macroeconomics.

For the first time in history, control of the market has shifted from long-term holders to ‘new’ whales who entered the market in the late stages of the cycle, CryptoQuant points out. The average purchase price for this group is around $98K. And until the market absorbs their loss-making supply, sales will prevail in BTC.

In the first half of the year, the crypto market may fall by 15-20%, and its recovery will begin in the fourth quarter, said BitMine CEO Tom Lee. In his opinion, Bitcoin will retain its status as digital gold and could reach $250,000 in the long term.

Ripple President Monica Long said that the coming year will be a turning point for the industry — cryptocurrencies will finally become integrated into the global financial system and will no longer be perceived as an alternative to traditional finance.

U.S. personal income and spending data pointed to steady demand momentum into late 2025, according to figures released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.1% mom in October and 0.3% mom in November, while personal consumption expenditures increased a firm 0.5% mom in both months.

Inflation readings remained firm but controlled. The headline PCE price index rose 0.2% mom in both October and November, with the core PCE measure also increasing 0.2% mom in each month. On a year-over-year basis, headline and core PCE inflation ticked up from 2.7% in October to 2.8% in November, suggesting inflation pressures are easing only gradually.

The data, released together due to the recent government shutdown, replace reports originally scheduled for late November and December. Taken together, the figures reinforce the view that consumer demand remains robust while disinflation progress is slow.

Full US personal income and outlays release here.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.86; (P) 158.19; (R1) 158.64; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidation from 159.44. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 156.10 support intact, outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 159.44 will resume the rise from 139.87 towards 161.94 high. However, firm break of 156.10 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.86 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7903; (P) 0.7936; (R1) 0.7989; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral, and risk stays on the downside with 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7958) intact. Firm break of 0.7860 support argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. Nevertheless, sustained break of 55 4H EMA will bring stronger rebound towards 0.8039 resistance. Overall, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a corrective pattern, which could still extend.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3400; (P) 1.3430; (R1) 1.3458; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook as range trading still continues. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, firm break of 1.3494 will suggest that pullback from 1.3567 has completed at 1.3342, after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3382). Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.3567 first. Break there will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the decline is another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3787.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3787 for up trend resumption is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1660; (P) 1.1701; (R1) 1.1727; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and risk stays on the upside with 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1672) intact. Break of 1.1807 will resume whole rally from 1.1467, and target a retest on 1.1917 key resistance level. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 1.1576 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1413) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Risk-on sentiment returned to global equity markets today as tensions surrounding Greenland appeared to de-escalate further. Stocks across regions pushed higher, reflecting relief that the immediate geopolitical shock has been contained, at least for now. The shift followed fresh comments from US President Donald Trump, who elaborated on the previously announced Greenland framework while attending the World Economic Forum. Trump said the US had secured “total and permanent access” to Greenland through a deal with NATO, stressing there would be no time limit on that access.

“It’s total access. There’s no end, there’s no time limit,” Trump told Fox Business, adding that negotiations were now focused on details rather than principle. The comments reinforced the perception that Washington has stepped back from confrontation of more tariff threats in favor of a security-based arrangement.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed that the alliance is now working through the operational aspects. Speaking to Reuters in Davos, Rutte said NATO commanders would handle the additional Arctic security requirements and expressed hope that implementation could be achieved event in early 2026.

Despite the improved tone, uncertainty remains. Denmark reiterated that its sovereignty over Greenland is not up for discussion, underlining that the framework does not amount to a transfer of ownership. Key details of the agreement remain unclear, keeping diplomatic nerves exposed beneath the surface calm.

More broadly, the episode has left scars in Europe. EU leaders are believed to be reassessing relations with the US, after the Greenland dispute shook confidence in the reliability of the transatlantic partnership. Concerns persist that U.S. policy could shift again abruptly.

That lingering distrust is visible in markets. While equities are rallying, Swiss Franc resilience suggests risk aversion has not fully disappeared. This is also reflect in Gold, which retreats from record highs without deeper pullback. Investors appear relieved, but not convinced that the issue is conclusively resolved.

In FX performance terms for the week so far, Dollar remains the second worst performer, ahead of only Yen, with Sterling also lagging. Kiwi leads, followed by Aussie, supported by strong Australian jobs data. Euro and Loonie trade mid-pack.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.52%. DAX is up 1.12%. CAC is up 1.18%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.033 at 4.496. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.003 at 2.881. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.73%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.17%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.14%. Singapore Strait Time rose 0.38%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.047 to 2.241.

US initial jobless claims tick up to 200k vs exp 209k

US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 200k in the week ending January 17, below expectation of 209k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -4k to 201.5k, lowest since January 13, 2024.

Continuing claims fell -26k to 1849k in the week ending January 10. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -16k to 1871k.

ECB accounts signal patience, reject directional bias

The December meeting accounts showed the ECB broadly aligned with prevailing market rate expectations of not rate move in the near term. Nevertheless, the accounts emphasized that patience should not be misread as inertia.

While the Governing Council felt policy was “in a good place,” members stressed that this did not imply a static stance. The ECB retains flexibility to respond as conditions evolve, indicating that patience does not equate to reluctance to act or a one-sided reaction function.

Uncertainty featured prominently in the discussion. Novel risks—including the AI-driven investment boom, potential U.S. tariffs, and concerns over Chinese dumping—cloud the outlook. While some members saw risks skewed toward inflation undershooting the target, a smaller group warned of overshoot risks.

Against that backdrop, "it was important not to give the impression that the next move would be in one direction or the other, or to suggest any tightening or easing bias," the minutes noted.

Australia jobs surge 65.2k in December, unemployment drops to 4.1%

Australia’s labor market delivered a major upside surprise in December, reinforcing the picture of persistent tightness. Employment surged 65.2k, more than double expectations of 26.5k, driven primarily by a strong rise in full-time jobs (+54.8k), with part-time employment also increasing (+10.4k).

The strength fed directly into the unemployment rate, which fell from 4.3% to 4.1%, far below expectations of 4.4% and matching the joint-lowest level since December 2024. The participation rate held steady at 66.8%, while monthly hours worked rose 0.4% mom, signaling that labor demand remains robust rather than superficial.

According to Sean Crick, head of labour statistics at Australian Bureau of Statistics, the drop in unemployment was partly driven by more younger people entering the workforce. Even so, the scale of job creation highlights an economy that continues to absorb new entrants with ease.

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1660; (P) 1.1701; (R1) 1.1727; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and risk stays on the upside with 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1672) intact. Break of 1.1807 will resume whole rally from 1.1467, and target a retest on 1.1917 key resistance level. However, sustained trading below 55 4H EMA will bring deeper fall back to 1.1576 support instead.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1413) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

The December meeting accounts showed the ECB broadly aligned with prevailing market rate expectations of not rate move in the near term. Nevertheless, the accounts emphasized that patience should not be misread as inertia.

While the Governing Council felt policy was “in a good place,” members stressed that this did not imply a static stance. The ECB retains flexibility to respond as conditions evolve, indicating that patience does not equate to reluctance to act or a one-sided reaction function.

Uncertainty featured prominently in the discussion. Novel risks—including the AI-driven investment boom, potential U.S. tariffs, and concerns over Chinese dumping—cloud the outlook. While some members saw risks skewed toward inflation undershooting the target, a smaller group warned of overshoot risks.

Against that backdrop, "it was important not to give the impression that the next move would be in one direction or the other, or to suggest any tightening or easing bias," the minutes noted.

Full ECB meeting accounts here.