Sample Category Title

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.31; (P) 182.70; (R1) 183.29; More...

No change in EUR/JPY's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 180.87 support will argue that fall from 186.86 is at least correcting whole rise from 154.77, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8687; (P) 0.8700; (R1) 0.8715; More…

Decline from 0.8788 is in progress and intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside. The pattern from 0.8863 could already be in the third leg. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8611 support. On the upside, above 0.8711 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 should confirm that it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. That should pave the way back to 0.9267. However, sustained break of 0.8611 support will indicate rejection by 0.8867 and indicate bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6460; (P) 1.6530; (R1) 1.6637; More...

No change in EUR/AUD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the downside, decisive break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will resume the larger fall from 1.8554 to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside fro stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.6979).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9051; (P) 0.9064; (R1) 0.9080; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and outlook is unchanged. Price actions from 0.9026 short term bottom are viewed as a consolidations pattern only. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.9168 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9026 at 0.9167). Another fall below 0.9026 to resume the larger down trend is expected at a later stage. However, decisive break of 0.9167/8 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9181) and above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3622; (P) 1.3670; (R1) 1.3724; More...

Outlook is unchanged for USD/CAD and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. Strong resistance is still expected from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3717) to limit upside to complete the consolidation pattern from 1.3480. Below 1.3624 minor support will bring retest of 1.3480 low first. However, decisive break of 55 D EMA will bring stronger rebound to 1.3927 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6957; (P) 0.7024; (R1) 0.7074; More...

Range trading continues in AUD/USD and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rally is still in favor with 0.6896 support intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.7146 will resume resume larger up trend 0.7206 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 0.6896 will indicate that a larger scale correction is underway, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7146 at 0.6675.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1564; (P) 1.1605; (R1) 1.1652; More….

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral as consolidations continue above 1.1529 temporary low. On the downside, below 1.1529 will resume the fall from 1.2081. Sustained break of 1.1576 structural support would confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level. That should also confirm medium term topping on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Further decline should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353 next. However, firm break of 1.1740 support turned resistance will revive near term bullishness, and bring stronger rebound back to retest 1.2081 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3308; (P) 1.3347; (R1) 1.3397; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 1.3252 temporary low. Fall from 1.3867 should at least be correcting the rise from 1.2009. Below 1.3252 will target 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3867 at 1.3192. Sustained break there will pave the way to 1.3008 support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.3574 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.73; (P) 157.29; (R1) 158.12; More...

USD/JPY is staying in range below 157.96 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral a this point. On the upside, above 157.96 will extend the rebound from 152.25 to retest 159.44 high. On the downside, though, break of 155.52 will bring deeper fall back to 152.07/152.25 support zone. Overall, price actions from 159.44 are viewed as a near term consolidation pattern. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 holds.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.16) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Key takeaways

• Oil shock drove the sell-off: Since the start of the US–Iran War, Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 6.1% in four days, underperforming global peers as Japan’s heavy reliance on imported oil heightens stagflation risks.
• Yield curve shift may support equities: A bull steepening of the Japanese government bond yield curve (10-yr minus 2-yr), partly driven by expectations of a less hawkish Bank of Japan, historically correlates with upside momentum in the Nikkei and may support a short-term rebound.
• Technical signals suggest a near-term bounce: The index has repeatedly held support around its 50-day moving average, with momentum indicators turning positive; a break above 56,530 could trigger a recovery toward 57,140–58,140, while a drop below 52,960 would invalidate the bullish scenario.

Since the start of the ongoing US-Iran war, Japan’s Nikkei 225 is one of the worst-performing key global benchmark stock indices due to being a major oil net importer, where the steep rally seen in oil prices in the past four days increases the odds of a negative feedback loop towards Japan’s economic growth prospects via the stagflation fear factor.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is one of the worst-performing global benchmark stock indices

Fig. 1: Key global stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 5 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro)

The Nikkei 225 staged a decline of 6.1% from last Friday, 27 February to Thursday, 5 March, underperforming other key Asia Pacific stock markets; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-4.9%), Singapore’s Straits Times Index (-3%), Australia’s ASX 200 (-2.8%), and China’s CSI 300 (-1.3%) (see Fig. 1).

Interestingly, the 4-day plunge of the Nikkei 225 is likely to stage a minor recovery at this juncture, supported by technical and intermarket factors.

Let’s dive deeper into these aspects.

A lesser perceived hawkish BoJ triggers a bullish steepening of the JGB yield curve

Fig. 2: JGB yield curve (10-YR minus 2-YR) medium-term trend with Nikkei 225 as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

Since the start of the ongoing major bullish trend phase of the Nikkei 225 from early April 2025, the upward trajectory of the Nikkei 225 has been supported and moved in a significant direct correlation with the steepening of the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield curve spread (10-year JGB yield minus 2-year JGB yield) (see Fig. 2).

As of 6 March 2026, the BoJ has conducted four interest rate hikes in its current tightening cycle, which began in 2024 as it exited from its ultra-easy monetary policy stance and negative interest rate environment.

The policy interest rate currently stands at 0.75%. Market participants polled by various media outlets expect the BoJ to continue its gradual interest rate hike policy by enacting 1 to 2 hikes in 2026 to bring the year-end target policy interest rate higher to 1.0%-1.25%.

The 2-year JGB yield is very sensitive to the latest monetary policy stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) as perceived by traders in the JGB market.

The 2-year JGB yield rocketed to a 30-year high of 1.31% on 9 February 2026 after the BoJ's last interest rate hike in December 2025, and Prime Minister Takaichi’s coalition party won a super majority in the lower house of Japan's parliament on 8 February 2026 snap election.

Since 9 February 2026, the 2-year JGB yield has softened by 7 basis points to trade at a current level of 1.24% at the time of writing and formed a “lower high” (see Fig. 2).

The current path of minor decline in the 2-year JGB, while still holding above its 50-day moving average, suggests that the BoJ may offer guidance to pause its interest rate hike cycle in the upcoming 19 March 2026’s monetary policy meeting due to the negative impact of higher oil prices arising from a prolonged US-Iran war.

A less hawkish expectation in BoJ’s future monetary policy stance can be implied by the recent rebound in the 10-year/2-year JGB yield curve spread, where a key support was tested at 0.84% (also its 200-day moving average) on Monday before it rebounded by 8 bps to trade at 0.92% at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).

Hence, a further bull steepening of the JGB yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) can translate into a minor recovery (at least in the first step after the 4-day plunge of the Nikkei 225 staged a retest on its 50-day moving average).

Let’s now look at the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).

Nikkei 225 – Bullish momentum at 50-day moving average

Fig. 3: Japan 225 minor trend as of 6 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView)

The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have managed to find support at the 50-day moving thrice this week on three occasions; 3 March 2026, 4 March 2026, and 5 March 2026.

Watch the 54,100/52,960 key medium-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 56,530 increases the odds of a minor recovery to see the next intermediate resistances to come in at 57,140 (also the 20-day moving average) and 58,140, respectively (see Fig. 3).

On the flip side, a break with a daily close below 52,960 invalidates the recovery scenario to kickstart a medium-term downtrend phase (multi-week) to expose the next intermediate supports at 52,960 and 52,260 in the first step.
Key elements to support the bullish bias on the Nikkei 225

The recent rebound seen on the 54,100/52,960 key medium-term support zone also confluences with the major ascending channel support in place since the 7 April 2025 low.
The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above its descending trendline resistance and jumped higher above the 50 level, a potential resurgence of minor bullish momentum condition.