Sample Category Title

Eurozone retail sales slipped -0.1% mom in January, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% increase.  Looking at the breakdown, spending on food, drinks and tobacco rose 0.3%, providing the only notable source of support. However, this was more than offset by declines in other categories.

Non-food retail sales (excluding fuel) dropped -0.2% in Eurozone, while automotive fuel sales fell sharply by -1.1%, reflecting both weaker mobility demand and softer energy consumption after the holiday period.

Across the broader EU, retail sales also declined -0.1% mom. The strongest increases were recorded in Estonia (+4.4%), Latvia (+2.8%), and Portugal (+2.0%), while the steepest declines were seen in Slovakia (-3.5%), Slovenia (-1.9%), and Croatia (-1.3%).

Full Eurozone retail sales release here.

GBP/USD contracted to 1.3350 on Thursday, with the pound remaining under pressure and trading near three-month lows.

Pressure on the dollar has eased over the past 24 hours following reports that Iran has offered to discuss terms for a potential end to the conflict. According to The New York Times, representatives of the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence made contact with the CIA through intermediaries, just one day after the commencement of joint US-Israel attacks. However, Israeli authorities have advised Washington not to respond to this proposal just yet.

Investors are also weighing the impact of rising energy prices on the Bank of England’s (BoE) future policy. With inflationary risks rising, expectations of an imminent rate cut have diminished significantly.

The market now assigns only a 20% probability of a BoE rate cut this month, a sharp decline from around 75% just a week ago.

Meanwhile, the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.1%, down from the previously anticipated 1.4%. However, the outlook for 2027 and 2028 remains more optimistic, with annual growth projected at around 1.6%. A gradual decline in government borrowing and inflation is also expected.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a wide consolidation range around the 1.3326 level, currently extending up to 1.3393. A decline to 1.3131 is expected in the near term. Following this correction, a new consolidation phase is likely. An upside breakout would pave the way for the wave to extend to 1.3410, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement towards 1.2971. This scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, which shows its signal line below the zero line and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3333 level. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3266. If this level is breached, further downside potential towards 1.3125 is possible. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the 50 level and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD remains under pressure, with shifting central bank expectations and geopolitical developments driving price action. The dramatic reversal in BoE rate-cut probabilities – from 75% to just 20% in a week – reflects growing concerns about inflation driven by rising energy prices. While tentative diplomatic signals from Iran have temporarily eased dollar strength, the technical outlook for the pair remains decidedly bearish, with further downside anticipated in the near term.

Platinum (PL) broke to new all-time highs late last year, signaling the potential start of a secular bullish market in the years ahead. In this article, we examine the long-term outlook for the metal and its evolving Elliott Wave structure.

Platinum (PL) Monthly Elliott Wave Chart

The monthly Platinum chart shows the metal has broken out to new all-time highs, reinforcing a bullish outlook. Platinum remains in a multi-year secular uptrend. The rally from January 1992 to the March 2008 peak completed wave ((I)) at 2308.8. This was followed by a corrective zigzag decline to 563, marking the end of wave ((II)). From that low, the metal resumed higher and has now broken into fresh highs with an impulsive internal structure.

From wave ((II)), wave (I) ended at 1348.2, while the subsequent pullback in wave (II) bottomed at 796.8. Platinum then advanced within wave (III), which is expected to extend one more leg before completion. As long as the metal holds above 563.8, corrective dips should continue to find support in three- or seven-swing structures, setting the stage for further upside.

Platinum (PL) Daily Elliott Wave Chart

The daily Platinum chart shows that the rally to 2925 completed wave ((3)). The subsequent pullback in wave ((4)) is proposed to have ended at 1806. However, the metal must break above the wave ((3)) high to rule out the possibility of a double correction. In the near term, as long as the pivot at the 891 low remains intact, the outlook stays bullish with dips expected to hold in three- or seven-swing corrections. If Platinum fails and breaks below 1806, the next support zone in a potential double correction lies between 662 and 1344, where buyers are anticipated to re-emerge.

Platinum (PL) Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiAIf_FqxAc

On 20 February, in the note “BTC/USD Analysis: Are the Bulls Stirring?”, we outlined a broad descending channel and highlighted early signs of increasing demand near the $65,600 level.

Subsequent price action provided further grounds to suggest that, following the dramatic decline in Bitcoin’s price from its all-time high in October 2025 to the February low around $60,000, market sentiment has begun to shift. This was reflected in the fact that two attempts by the bears to resume the downward movement (as indicated by the arrows) were unsuccessful.

It is possible that the easing of bearish pressure gave bulls greater confidence at the beginning of March, resulting in notable progress. Yesterday, Bitcoin reached its highest level in a month.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

As shown on the chart, the bullish impulse at the start of March led to a breakout above the QL resistance line, as well as the psychological $70,000 level.

From a bearish perspective:

• → classic indicators added to the chart are showing signs of overbought conditions;
• → the median line (M) of the previously constructed channel may act as significant resistance.

From a bullish perspective:

• → rising trading volumes (highlighted by the arrow) represent a positive signal;
• → a sequence of higher highs and higher lows allows for the construction of a local ascending channel (shown in blue);
• → Bitcoin’s price behaviour following the early February panic resembles an Accumulation phase in Wyckoff methodology. If so, the early March rally may represent a Jump Over The Creek (JOC) pattern, signalling a potential transition into the Mark-Up phase.

Considering the above, it is reasonable to expect the formation of a pullback on the Bitcoin chart — for example, a move towards testing the support zone around the psychological $70,000 level.

FXOpen offers the world's most popular cryptocurrency CFDs*, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Floating spreads, 1:2 leverage — at your service (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about crypto CFD trading with FXOpen.

*Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Markets

German Bunds for the first time this week gained yesterday, halting a downward spiral triggered by rising inflation risks in wake of the Iranian conflict. The front end outperformed, shedding up to 2.5 bps. Longer maturities were still up by 1.5 bps. Treasuries similarly entered calmer waters but underperformed vs Bunds in the wake of a much better than expected services ISM. The headline surged to a 3.5 year high of 56.1 (from 53.8 and vs 53.5 expected) on new orders growing significantly faster (58.6 from 53.1) and employment picking up (51.8 from 50.3). The price component eased from 66.6 to 63, a one year low. US yields rose between 3 (30-yr) and 4.4 (3-yr) bps. Risk sentiment was outright positive with geopolitical concerns, at least temporarily, moving to the background. Energy is probably the best gauge. Gas prices not only fully pared a 15% higher open, they finished 10% lower compared to Tuesday’s close. Oil prices in Asian dealings neared the $85 barrier only to end around $81.4. The jury remains out on whether it had something to do with the Trump administration’s assurances to keep energy trade flowing in the Strait of Hormuz or a later-denied-by-Iran report that the country indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss terms for ending the war. We’re in any case wary for oil (and gas) prices to drop significantly so long the war rages. Oil storage sites in key producers such as Iraq are filling up rapidly, leading them to cut or even completely halt production. The daily détente in energy prices caused relief in stock markets too, particularly in Europe. The EuroStoxx50 rose 1.7%. Wall Street added up to 1.3% (Nasdaq). It’s this risk-on mood that prevented the US dollar from benefiting from favourable yield differentials. Earlier haven flows reversed, pushing the greenback marginally lower against the euro. EUR/USD held north of 1.16. DXY dipped back below the 99 barrier. USD/JPY’s mid-February ascent hit resistance around 158. Sterling tread water around EUR/GBP 0.87.

Trading remains very much headline-based in the current circumstances. This morning is another case in point. The Iranian commander of the military ground forces said that the country hasn’t closed the Strait of Hormuz. They “don’t believe in [that] at all.” It prompted an intraday pullback in oil prices. They were again headed for the $85 barrier but are now trading around $83.5. Concerns about supply are now also triggering preservation measures by China, which told its biggest refiners to suspend diesel and gasoline exports. We continue to look at these markets to gauge overall market sentiment. Stock futures suggest a 0.5% lower open in Europe later. The US dollar recoups some of yesterday’s losses. EUR/USD hovers just north of 1.16 with an upward sloping trendline acting as support.

News & Views

The National Bank of Poland yesterday reduced its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%. The Bank saw inflation further declining in January to 2.2% Y/Y from 2.4% in December. The NBP also took notice of a decline in core inflation over the previous year. The decision to cut the policy rate also was supported by new macro-economic projections. The NBP sees inflation over the period 2026-2028 (middle of the 50% probability forecasting range) respectively at 2.25% (from 2.95% in the previous forecast), 2.4% (from 2.6%) and 2.55% in 2028. Growth forecasts for the period were upwardly revised to respectively 3.9% (from 3.65%) and 2.9% (from 2.6%). The 2028 estimate is set at 2.95%. Governor Glapinski indicated in February that the NBP could cut the policy rate further if the new forecasts wouldn’t show any worrying signals. However, over the previous days markets had doubted the rate cut as global volatility jumped sharply and as the zloty declined due to the conflict in the Middle East. In this respect, the policy statement only briefly mentions that energy commodity prices have risen recently and that global activity and inflation is subject to uncertainty, in particular the geopolitical situation. Markets will look for additional guidance at the press conference of governor Glapinski this afternoon. The 2-y Polish swap rate yesterday eased 5.5 bps (to 3.735%). The zloty intraday after the decision hardly lost any ground an closed the day even stronger at EUR/PLN 4.27 from 4.2875.

At the presentation of the annual report of the National Bank of Belgium (NBB), governor Wunsch indicated that additional measures of € 3-4 bln that the government intends to take to bring the Belgian budget deficit back in line with the EU trajectory won’t be enough. The measures would bring the deficit below 5% of GDP. However, the NBB governor indicated that the government should bring the deficit to 4% which is sees as more sustainable, considering extra measures necessary for defense, rising costs of aging and higher interest rate costs. In this scenario an extra budget effort of €11 bln might be necessary.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 182.38; (P) 182.81; (R1) 183.23; More...

Intraday bit in EUR/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 184.75 will target 186.86 high. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. However, break of 180.87 support will argue that fall from 186.86 is at least correcting whole rise from 154.77, and turn near term outlook bearish.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that price actions from 186.86 are merely a near term corrective pattern. In other words, the long term up trend is still in progress. Firm break of 186.86 will pave the way to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88 next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 180.78 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.44; (P) 210.07; (R1) 210.65; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Corrective fall from 214.98 should have completed at 207.20 already. On the upside, above 212.10 will resume the rebound from 207.20 to retest 214.98 high. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.20 holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that price actions from 214.98 might be a near term consolidation pattern only. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will revive that case that it's already in a larger scale correction.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8687; (P) 0.8700; (R1) 0.8715; More…

Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Rebound from 0.8611 could have completed at 0.8788. 8. The pattern from 0.8863 could already be in the third leg. Deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8611 support. For now, risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 0.8788 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is still in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867 should confirm that it's reversing whole down trend from 0.9267. That should pave the way back to 0.9267. However, sustained break of 0.8611 support will indicate rejection by 0.8867 and indicate bearish reversal.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6374; (P) 1.6487; (R1) 1.6556; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 138.2% projection of 1.8554 to 1.7245 from 1.8160 at 1.6351 will resume the larger fall from 1.8554 to 161.8% projection at 1.6042 next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 1.6691 resistance will indicate short term bottoming. Intraday bias will be back on the upside fro stronger rebound towards 55 D EMA (now at 1.6994).

In the bigger picture, fall from 1.8554 medium term top is seen as reversing the whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913, which is slightly below 1.5963 structural support. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.7245 support turned resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9045; (P) 0.9076; (R1) 0.9097; More....

EUR/CHF is staying in range trading and intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 0.9026 short term bottom are viewed as a consolidations pattern only. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.9168 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9026 at 0.9167). Another fall below 0.9026 to resume the larger down trend is expected at a later stage. However, decisive break of 0.9167/8 will bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 0.9186) and above.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.