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Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8665; (P) 0.8676; (R1) 0.8685; More…

EUR/GBP's break of 0.8691 resistance suggests short term bottoming at 0.8643. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.8716) first. Sustained break there will argue that whole fall from 0.8863 has already completed. On the downside, though, break of 0.8643 will resume the decline to 0.8631 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.8221 to 0.8663 at 0.8618).

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom (2024 low) is seen as a corrective move. Upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8623) should confirm that this corrective bounce has completed. In this case, deeper fall would be seen back to 0.8201/21 key support zone. However, decisive break of 0.8867 will suggest that EUR/GBP is already reversing whole decline from 0.9267 (2022 high). That should pave the way back to 0.9267.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7319; (P) 1.7359; (R1) 1.7385; More...

EUR/AUD is still bounded in range above 1.7287 and intraday bias stays neutral. Further decline is in favor with 1.7477 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 1.7287 will resume the fall from 1.8160. As this is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.8554, deeper fall should be seen to 1.7245 support and below. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.7477 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound back to 55 D EMA (now at 1.7577).

In the bigger picture, the break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.7464) argues that fall from 1.8554 medium term top is correcting whole up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low). Deeper decline is in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.6922, and possibly below. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.8160 resistance holds, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9271; (P) 0.9285; (R1) 0.9301; More....

EUR/CHF's break of 0.9268 suggests that fall from 0.9394 is resuming. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9394 to 0.9268 from 0.9347 at 0.9221. Break will bring retest of 0.9178 low. On the upside, above 0.9297 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

In the bigger picture, persistent bullish convergence condition in W MACD is a medium term bullish sign. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance should bring sustained trading above 55 W EMA (now at 0.9360). That should indicate medium term bottoming at 0.9178. Further break of 0.9452 resistance will bring stronger medium term rally towards 0.9928 resistance next, even still as a corrective bounce. Nevertheless, rejection by 55 W EMA will retain bearishness for another fall through 0.9178 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3847; (P) 1.3883; (R1) 1.3905; More...

USD/CAD's retreat from 1.3927 extends lower, but stays above 1.3789 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first, and further rally is still in favor. ON the upside, Above 1.3927 will target 1.4139 first. Break there will target 100% projection of 1.3538 to 1.4139 from 1.3641 at 1.4242, as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.3538. However, firm break of 1.3789 will bring deeper fall back to 1.3641 support instead.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, and break of 1.3538 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral until there are signs that the correction has completed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6682; (P) 0.6700; (R1) 0.6732; More...

AUD/USD rebounded strongly today but stays in range below 0.6765. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Further rally is expected with 0.6659 support intact. On the upside, above 0.6765 will resume the whole rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 0.6659 will confirm short term topping, and bring deeper correction back to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6630) and below.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1600; (P) 1.1625; (R1) 1.1670; More….

EUR/USD's solid break of 1.1698 resistance indicates that fall from 1.1807 has completed at 1.1576. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1807 first. Break there will target a test on 1.1917 key resistance level. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.1652) holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1413) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will carry larger bullish implication. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3368; (P) 1.3402; (R1) 1.3460; More...

Immediate focus is now on 1.3494 resistance as GBP/USD's rebound from 1.3342 extends higher. Firm break there will suggest that pullback from 1.3567 has completed after drawing support from 55 D EMA (now at 1.3375). Intraday bias will be back on the upside for 1.3567 first. Break there will resume the rally from 1.3008 to retest 1.3787 high. On the downside, sustained trading below 55 D EMA will argue that the decline is another falling leg in the corrective pattern from 1.3787.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3787 (2025 high) are seen as a correction to the larger up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Deeper decline could be seen as the pattern extends, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3787 at 1.2474 to bring rebound. Break of 1.3787 for up trend resumption is expected at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.64; (P) 157.91; (R1) 158.38; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 159.44. Outlook remains bullish with 156.10 support intact. On the upside, break of 159.44 will resume the rise from 139.87 towards 161.94 high. However, firm break of 156.10 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. Decisive break of 158.86 structural resistance will solidify this bullish case and target 161.94 for confirmation. On the downside, break of 154.38 support will dampen this bullish view and extend the corrective range pattern with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7951; (P) 0.7987; (R1) 0.8012; More….

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8039 accelerates lower today and the break of 0.7954 support confirms that rebound from 0.7860 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7860 support. Firm break there will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7984) holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).

Dollar is under broad pressure today as markets return from Monday’s U.S. holiday with persistent focus on geopolitical risk. The move comes along with sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yield, which pushed above 4.27%, extending last week’s decisive break above the 4.2% threshold after nearly a month of failed attempts. Momentum now looks firmly skewed toward a test of 4.3%. At the same time, U.S. equity futures are broadly lower, pointing to a sharp downside open later in the session.

The combination of higher yields and falling stocks is not providing any support to Dollar, reinforcing the view that the market is questioning U.S. policy credibility rather than simply repricing rates. The selloff in the greenback has indeed accelerated through Asian and early European sessions. The combination revived talks that “Sell America” trade is finally gaining traction, reviving memories of the post-“Liberation Day” selloff last April.

At the center, US President Donald Trump has reignited trade tensions with Europe amid the Greenland dispute. The renewed tariff threats have reopened the debate over whether global investors should reduce U.S. exposure. The European Union has several response options. Beyond traditional retaliation, Brussels could activate the Anti-Coercion Instrument, an untested but far-reaching framework that allows restrictions on public tenders, investment access, banking activity, and trade in services. Its potential use is seen as a major escalation risk.

This matters because Europe is the United States’ largest external creditor, holding roughly US 8 trillion in U.S. equities and bonds, nearly twice the rest of the world combined. The key question is not whether Europe can sell, but what would push large institutional investors to start reducing U.S. exposure in size.

Tensions escalated further on Tuesday when Trump threatened 200% tariffs on French wines and champagne after President Emmanuel Macron was reported to be unwilling to join a proposed “Board of Peace” on Gaza. The remarks added a personal dimension to the dispute. Macron’s term runs until May 2027, with no option for re-election, but markets focused less on French domestic politics and more on the precedent of tariffs used as political coercion between allies.

At the same time, Yen selling is accelerating again, driven by a sharp repricing in Japan’s bond market. The 40-year JGB yield hit a record 4%, while the 10-year yield jumped above 2.3%, hitting the highest level since 1999. The moves followed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s announcement of a February 8 snap election, reigniting fiscal concerns. Ultra-long yields are being pushed higher by both structural supply-demand imbalances and a renewed rise in term and risk premium as markets absorb a more expansionary fiscal stance alongside persistent inflation. This has revived the classic “Takaichi trade”.

On the FX scoreboard so far today, Yen is the worst performer, followed closely by Dollar, with both under heavy pressure. Loonie is the third weakest. At the other end, Kiwi leads gains, followed by Aussie and Euro, while Sterling and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the pack.

In Asia, Nikkei fell -1.11%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.25%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.01%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.12%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.082 to 2.353.

UK payrolled employment falls -43k, wage growth gradually eases

UK labor market data showed further signs of cooling in December, led by outright job losses. Payrolled employment fell by -43k (-0.1% m/m), while the claimant count rose by 17.9k, pointing to softening hiring demand as growth momentum slows.

Wage dynamics were mixed but continued to ease on a broader trend basis. Median monthly pay growth rose to 4.0% yoy from yoy, though this follows a sharp deceleration from levels well above 5% seen through mid-2025.

In the three months to November, unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1%, suggesting labour slack is building only gradually. Meanwhile, average earnings including bonuses slowed to 4.7% yoy from 4.8%, while earnings excluding bonuses eased to 4.5% from 4.6%.

China keeps LPRs steady as policy shifts to structural support

The PBoC kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged, leaving the 1-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%. The decision was widely expected and reinforces the view that Beijing remains reluctant to deploy broad-based monetary easing despite slowing growth.

The policy stance reflects a clear preference for targeted support over headline rate cuts. The 1-year LPR continues to guide most corporate and household loans, while the 5-year rate anchors mortgage pricing. By holding both steady, authorities are signaling concern over financial stability and capital outflows, while relying on alternative tools to stimulate demand where needed.

Instead, the PBOC has intensified the use of structural monetary policy instruments. Last week, it cut rates on key relending facilities by 25bp, lowering the 1-year relending rate for agriculture and small businesses to 1.25%, effective Monday. By reducing the cost of central bank funding to banks, the PBOC aims to encourage cheaper credit for targeted sectors without reopening the door to broad leverage expansion.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7951; (P) 0.7987; (R1) 0.8012; More….

USD/CHF's fall from 0.8039 accelerates lower today and the break of 0.7954 support confirms that rebound from 0.7860 has completed. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.7860 support. Firm break there will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 0.7828 low. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 0.7984) holds, in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7828 are seen as a correction. Larger down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Break of 0.7828 will target 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8332 support turned resistance holds (2023 low).