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Nvidia’s eye-popping results and strong beat remained short of triggering the kind of euphoria they would have a year ago. Nvidia printed a sizeable beat on almost every metric it released. Alas, the stock price — which had been set to challenge the $200 per share level in afterhours trading — took an unexpected U-turn. Nvidia dived more than 5% instead, closing the session below the $185 per share mark.

Michael Burry pointed to the company’s $95bn purchase obligations — up from $16bn a year ago — suggesting that if AI demand slows or customers pause orders, Nvidia could be stuck paying for unused capacity, compressing margins and resetting earnings expectations lower. A year ago, the same commitment would have been considered bullish — Nvidia locking in supply early to meet multi-year demand from big customers like Microsoft, Amazon and Google. Today, the interpretation has flipped on fears that AI capex could slow and leave Nvidia with excess capacity. This looks like peak-cycle behaviour. It doesn’t necessarily mean that AI adoption will slow, but that the Big Tech AI push could level out.

So here we are. Nvidia tanks despite blockbuster results and strong guidance — there was little the company could have done differently to change the immediate market reaction.

Salesforce, on the other hand, which was sent lower in afterhours trading, ended 4% higher. Its Agentforce AI generated $800m last quarter, up from $500m. CrowdStrike jumped nearly 5% despite softer-than-expected guidance, while Snowflake rebounded more than 2% on robust AI-related bookings that boosted earnings. The London Stock Exchange Group, which has lost more than 40% since February in the broader software selloff, also beat projections last quarter and guided to a better 2026. The company owns proprietary data that AI cannot easily replicate; on the contrary, AI models are likely to pay for access to that data.

In conclusion, investors are cautiously returning to software names as earnings show AI demand boosting rather than destroying business models. Concerns about AI disruption are not over — Block, for example, announced plans to replace up to 40% of certain roles with automation over time. But if machines replace people, software companies that build the new workforce could ultimately benefit.

We remain in a period of great uncertainty regarding the winners and losers of AI adoption. We don’t know how fast the shift will happen, but volatility is likely to persist due to low visibility.

For now, it feels like valuations in AI enablers — think Nvidia, Meta and Google — may have peaked, while the software selloff appears overdone. Meanwhile, memory chip makers have been among the clearest winners since the last quarter of last year, and higher memory prices could eventually pressure margins at PC and smartphone manufacturers.

Zooming out, Nvidia’s drop pulled the S&P 500 into the red yesterday — but most stocks rose, helped by lower US yields.

The US dollar was better bid but remains capped below its 50-DMA. Gold consolidates gains near the $5’200 per ounce level.

Crude oil wobbles on US-Iran headlines. US crude briefly slipped below $64 per barrel on reports of “significant progress” in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, but rebounded as talks were paused and pushed to a later date — keeping geopolitical risk alive, including the possibility of disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Intraday oil trading remains challenging due to high volatility. But the medium-term outlook is broadly unchanged: crude could give back part of its recent gains once tensions ease. But until then, a direct military escalation involving Iran could push US crude into the $70–80 per barrel range, depending on intensity.

We are coming toward the end of another eventful week. The biggest news was Nvidia earnings, which notably failed to improve appetite for US tech stocks.

Looking further back, the rotation trade strengthened in February: capital flowed out of US technology into US non-tech and global indices, and the MSCI World ex-US widened its outperformance gap throughout the month. Investors largely shrugged off trade tensions with the US. European inflation eased, and Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-cut expectations moderated following stronger-than-expected employment and inflation figures — even though US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q4, reflecting slower consumer spending growth, a negative contribution from government spending due to a federal shutdown, and weaker net exports.

Looking ahead, uncertainty surrounding AI and its social and economic impact will continue to shape markets — sometimes unpredictably. This environment could favour a flight toward “high assets, low obsolescence” — companies with tangible assets or durable competitive moats that face limited disruption risk – the HALO trade that everyone is talking about.

I like the FTSE 100, as its energy and mining exposure fits well with the rotation theme, although elevated valuations in parts of the mining sector could become problematic down the line.

In FX, the US dollar may remain under pressure in the coming weeks, though major peers are approaching key technical levels. The EURUSD, for example, has struggled above the 1.20 mark amid concerns that excessive euro strength could hurt European economies already challenged by US tariffs. The cable outlook remains cautious given policy divergence expectations between the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE), with the latter seen cutting rates twice before summer. Selling pressure on the Japanese yen has eased alongside Japanese yields, which in turn has helped limit upward pressure on global sovereign yields — possibly also influenced by rising stress in private credit markets. But the downside risks in the yen remain on Takaichi’s apprehension regarding rate normalization.

Somehow worryingly, private credit concerns emerged this month linked to the software selloff, but new stress emerged yesterday involving Barclays and Atlas SP (Apollo’s structured-credit arm). The lenders reportedly helped arrange $2.7bn of loans to a UK mortgage company accused of financial irregularities.

In recent years, this type of stress has often been brushed aside, but JPMorgan’s Dimon has repeatedly warned of ‘coach roaches’ that parts of the market may be taking excessive risks to boost returns.

How excessive — time will tell.

In focus today

In the US, January PPI data will be released this afternoon. The earlier CPI release landed slightly below expectations.

In the euro area, February's flash inflation data from France, Germany, and Spain will give important hints ahead of next week's euro area inflation release. We expect euro area HICP inflation to rise marginally from 1.69% y/y to 1.73% y/y, remaining at 1.7% y/y when rounded. Core inflation is expected to remain at 2.2% y/y. Energy inflation is expected to rise due to lagged effects of January's energy price and higher fuel prices in February, which is the main reason we expect a small rise in the headline at the second decimal. Monthly momentum in services inflation will be crucial, given its notable weakness in January.

In Norway, the last couple of months' NAV figures show that unemployment is falling again, which is a bit surprising given the moderate growth, the slowdown in employment growth, and the decline in vacancies. We expect that the unemployment rate (SA) will be unchanged at 2.1% in January. Finally, we suspect that the weak retail sales figures for December are partly due to problems with seasonal adjustment in connection with Black week. Hence, we expect retail sales to have increased by 0.7% m/m s.a. in January.

In Sweden, we will get the final GDP release for the fourth quarter. We expect GDP to grow by 0.4% q/q and 2.2% y/y. This is slightly stronger than the GDP indicator but is in line with production data, which showed positive signals. Monthly data for consumption indicates that the recovery is underway and has looked noticeably better since the second quarter of last year. We are also keeping an eye out for potential revisions to the third quarter. The most important factor for the Riksbank is domestic demand, particularly how consumption develops.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Japan, Tokyo inflation (a good indicator of the country total) slowed in February, with CPI excl. fresh food at 1.8% y/y, down from 2.0% y/y in January. This marks the first time in 16 months that inflation has fallen below the Bank of Japan's 2% target. The decline was driven by the impact of fuel subsidies and the removal of gasoline tax surcharges, while the effects of recent food price hikes have largely subsided.

What happened yesterday

In US-Iran talks, 'significant progress' was reportedly made in Geneva on Tehran's nuclear programme, with technical negotiations set to resume on Monday in Vienna. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US has outlined key demands, including dismantling key nuclear sites, signing a permanent agreement, and transferring Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to the US. While the US has shown some openness to limited enrichment for medical purposes, this could still leave the door open for Iran to quite easily continue enrichment to weapons grade levels. With diplomacy still on the table, concrete results remain elusive, leaving crude markets in a wait-and-see mode and continuing to price in a significant risk of military escalation.

In Sweden, February's NIER Economic Tendency Survey showed weaker sentiment, with the Economic Tendency Indicator at 100.1 (prior: 102.8). Manufacturing confidence fell to 97.7 (prior: 103.4), while consumer confidence rose slightly to 96.3 (prior: 95.3). Sentiment now aligns with our GDP forecast, reducing the recent upside risks. For the Riksbank, the survey was relatively neutral. Price plans in the service sector remain elevated, but food price plans signal a decline, reflecting willingness to adjust prices ahead of April's VAT reduction.

In Denmark, PM Mette Frederiksen has announced parliamentary elections will be held on 24 March. Among other things, her party is running on introducing a new wealth tax to fund increasing spending on primary schools and a cut in property taxes on lowest valued homes. Denmark was set to hold elections in the autumn, but the government has the option of calling for earlier elections.

Equities: Global equities declined 0.3% yesterday. S&P500 declined 0.5%, while Nasdaq was down 1.2% and Russell2000 was up 0.5%. Stoxx600 was virtually unchanged. The slide was heavily concentrated in AI/tech exposed companies, with tech down 1.8%. In fact, it was only 30% of the S&P500 names that ended lower yesterday. Nvidia ended 5.5% lower, amid their report on Wednesday night showing strong sales, but AI implications investor concerns continue to linger, and when such a large company declines by more than 5%, it is hard for the rest of the market not to notice. Firms within the private equity/credit space suffered markedly following an Apollo private credit fund marked down its value of the assets and cut dividends, identifying the recent turmoil around private credit/equity names. Overnight, Asian stocks are generally positive with US futures in red.

FI and FX: Talks between Iran and the US have been described as constructive, although no concrete results have been announced. EUR/USD continues to trade near the 1.18 level, while EUR/SEK remains below 10.70. EUR/NOK has been range-bound between 11.20 and 11.35 over the past two weeks.

Rates have rallied in most markets in recent days. In the US, the 10y Treasury yield is trading at 4.0% this morning, while the 10y gilt yield has fallen to 4.27%, its lowest level since late 2024. EUR swap rates have also drifted lower, and today's preliminary inflation data from France, Spain and Germany could put additional downward pressure on yields if the figures surprise to the downside.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1773; (P) 1.1801; (R1) 1.1828; More….

EUR/USD is still bounded in tight range above 1.1740 and intraday bias stays neutral. Near term risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.1928 resistance holds. Below 1.1740 temporary low will target 1.1576 support next. Firm break there should confirm rejection by 1.2 key psychological level and turn near term outlook bearish. However, break of 1.1928 argue that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a correction, and revive near term bullishness. Retest of 1.2081 should then be seen next.

In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.1494) holds, up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) is still in favor to continue. Decisive break of 1.2 key psychological level will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. Next medium term target will be 138.2% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.2581. However, sustained trading below 55 W EMA will argue that rise from 0.9534 has completed as a three wave corrective bounce, and keep long term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.71; (P) 156.13; (R1) 156.55; More...

USD/JPY is staying in consolidations below 156.81 temporary top and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, above 156.81 will resume the rally from 152.25 to 157.65 resistance first. Firm break there will target a retest on 159.44. high. On the downside, however, break of 153.90 will bring deeper fall to 152.25 support. Overall, with 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96 intact, price actions from 159.44 are seen as a corrective pattern. Also, rise from 139.87 is expected to resume through 159.44 at a later stage.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.93) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3426; (P) 1.3501; (R1) 1.3556; More...

Despite the current steep decline, GBP/USD is still holding above 1.3432 and intraday bias remains neutral. On the downside, below 1.3432 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3342 support. Firm break there should confirm that it's already correcting the whole rise from 1.2099. However, break of 1.3574 resistance will argue that the decline has completed as a near term correction, and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3867.

In the bigger picture, as long as 1.3008 support holds, rise from 1.3051 (2022 low) should still be in progress for 1.4284 key resistance (2021 high). Decisive break there will add to the case of long term bullish trend reversal. However, firm break of 1.3008 will raise the chance of medium term bearish reversal and target 1.2099 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7716; (P) 0.7735; (R1) 0.7759; More….

No change in USD/CHF's outlook as consolidations continue above 0.7603. Intraday bias remains neutral for now. In case of stronger rise, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 0.7824) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 0.7627 will bring retest of 0.7603. Firm break there will resume larger down trend, and target 0.7382 projection level next. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will indicate that a larger scale corrective bounce in underway and target 0.8039 resistance next.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress. Next target is 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8123 resistance holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7070; (P) 0.7103; (R1) 0.7140; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as it's still bounded in range below 0.7146. Consolidations could continue and deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained above 0.6896 support. On the upside, above 0.7146 will resume larger up trend to 100% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.7213.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6706 resistance turned support holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3656; (P) 1.3685; (R1) 1.3710; More...

Outlook in USD/CAD is unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidations from 1.3480 is in progress and stronger rebound might be seen. But upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 1.3728) to complete the pattern. On the downside, below 1.3630 minor support will bring retest of 1.3480 low. Firm break there will resume larger down trend from 1.4791 to 61.8% projection of 1.4791 to 1.3538 from 1.4139 at 1.3365. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will bring further rise to 1.3927 resistance and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, until there are signs that the correction has completed, or that a bearish trend reversal is confirmed.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9114; (P) 0.9132; (R1) 0.9151; More....

EUR/CHF is still bounded in consolidations pattern from 0.9092 and intraday bias stays neutral. Stronger rebound might be seen but upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9394 to 0.9092 at 0.9207. On the downside, firm break of 0.9092 will resume larger down trend.

In the bigger picture, down trend from 0.9928 (2024 high) is still in progress with falling 55 W EMA (now at 0.9326) intact. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 0.9928 at 0.8851. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9394 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 209.81; (P) 210.99; (R1) 211.72; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral again with current retreat. Pull back from 214.98 could have completed as a near term correction at 207.20. Above 212.10 will bring retest of 214.98 first. Firm break there will resume larger up trend. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 207.20 holds.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that price actions from 214.98 might be a near term consolidation pattern only. That is, larger up trend from 123.94 (2020 low) is still in progress. Firm break of 214.98 will target 61.8% projection of 148.93 (2022 low) to 208.09 (2024 high) from 184.35 at 220.90. On the downside, though, break of 207.20 will revive that case that it's already in a larger scale correction.