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Market Overview

The crypto market capitalisation has recovered to $2.38 trillion, rising by around 2.5% over the past 24 hours — most assets on the watchlist are trading in positive territory. Today’s top performers include Avalanche (+6.6%), Cardano (+5.0%) and Ethereum (+3.8%). Among the few underperformers are IOTA (−1.3%), VeChain (−0.9%) and Bitcoin Cash (−0.6%).

Bitcoin has risen again to $69K, confirming the support seen over the last three months amid consolidation following the downturn. A slight upward tilt in the bullish trend should not lead to undue optimism, as a similar pattern was observed for two months leading up to the end of January, followed by a fresh downward momentum. A repeat of this pattern this time suggests a decline to $50K.

Ethereum has surpassed $2.1K and is consolidating above its 50-day moving average. The coin has moved into the region above $2K, increasingly breaking away from the long-term trend line. Cautious buyers should pay attention to how the coin behaves near the previous local highs at $2.2K and $2.4K. A confident rise above these levels would signal a breakout from consolidation and the potential start of a bull market.

Major mining company Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC ($290 million) in the first quarter at an average price of $76,626 per coin. The company is accelerating its business pivot towards supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Bitcoin’s current stability may indicate the formation of a base for further growth, according to MN Trading founder Michael van de Poppe. He says the key signal will be the price reaction when an attempt is made to break out of the current range.

Following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin ceased to react to central bank decisions after the fact and began to anticipate macroeconomic trends in advance, notes Binance Research. This reflects the growing influence of institutional investors employing a traditional approach to trading.

According to Artemis, the Ethereum blockchain recorded a record number of transactions in the first quarter since its launch — 200.4 million transactions.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1500; (P) 1.1525; (R1) 1.1540; More….

EUR/USD is extending the consolidation pattern from 1.1408 and intraday bias remains neutral. With 1.1666 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1665) intact, further decline is expected. On the downside, firm break of 1.1408 will resume the fall from 1.2081 to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. However, decisive break of 1.1666 will argue that the fall from 1.2081 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1408 at 1.1824.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.5011) should confirm rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. The whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low) might have completed as a three wave corrective rise too. Deeper fall is expected to long term channel support (now at 1.0535). Meanwhile, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.2081 holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.48; (P) 159.62; (R1) 159.81; More...

USD/JPY is extending consolidations below 160.45 and intraday bias remains neutral. Another fall could be seen, but overall outlook will remain bullish as long as 157.49 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 152.25 to 160.45 at 157.31) holds. Firm break of 160.45 will resume the rise from 152.25 to retest 161.94 high.

In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 152.97) holds. Firm break of 161.94 will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 102.58 to 161.94 from 139.87 at 176.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3235; (P) 1.3290; (R1) 1.3362; More...

GBP/USD is extending consolidations above 1.3158 and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. With 1.3479 resistance intact, further decline is still in favor. Below 1.3158 will resume the fall from 1.3867 to 1.3008 structural support. However, firm break of 1.3479 will indicate that the fall from 1.3867 has completed, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, considering bearish divergence condition in both D and W MACD, a medium term top should be in place at 1.3867. Firm break of 1.3008 support will argue that fall from 1.3867 is at least correcting the rise from 1.0351 (2022 low) with risk of bearish reversal. That would open up further decline to 38.2% retracement of 1.0351 to 1.3867 at 1.2524. For now, medium term outlook will be neutral at best as long as 1.3867 resistance holds, or until further development.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7979; (P) 0.7996; (R1) 0.8017; More….

USD/CHF is extending consolidations below 0.8041 and intraday bias remains neutral. Further rally is expected with 0.7833 support intact. On the upside, break of 0.8041 will resume the whole rally from 0.7603, and target 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.7603 at 0.8213. However, decisive break of 0.7833 support will argue that the rebound has completed, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper fall.

In the bigger picture, a medium term bottom should be in place at 0.7603 on bullish convergence condition in D MACD. Rebound from there is seen as correcting the fall from 0.9200 only. However, decisive break of 55 W EMA (now at 0.8081) will suggest that it's probably correcting the larger scale down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). On the other hand, rejection by the 55 W EMA will setup down trend resumption to 100% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3910; (P) 1.3936; (R1) 1.3971; More...

USD/CAD is staying in established range below 1.3965 and intraday bias stays neutral. Consolidations could extend, but in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 1.3751 resistance turned support. On the upside, decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3480 at 1.3981 will argue that it's already reversing the whole down trend from 1.4791, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.4290. However, firm break of 1.3751 should indicate rejection by 1.3981, and keep the fall from 1.4791 intact. Bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.3480 low.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 are seen as a corrective pattern to the whole up trend from 1.2005 (2021 low). Deeper fall could be seen, as the pattern extends, to 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 to 1.4791 at 1.3069. However, decisive break of 1.3927 resistance will argue that the correction has completed with three waves down to 1.3480 already. Further break of 1.4139 will confirm and bring retest of 1.4791 high.

• Gold pares losses just below the uptrend line.
• Momentum signals show easing bearish pressure, but negative bias still holds.

Gold is holding steady on Monday, supported by the 100‑day simple moving average (SMA) near 4,670, paring losses after Friday’s pullback triggered by robust US jobs data and renewed escalation in the Iran conflict, which dimmed Fed rate‑cut expectations.

The momentum indicators show bearish pressure easing: the MACD is turning higher above its signal line, though still below zero, while the RSI is flatlining just below the neutral 50 level – signalling that, although selling momentum has cooled, the broader negative bias remains intact.

A rebound off the 100-day SMA support could target a key confluence zone where the medium‑term ascending trendline meets the 20‑day SMA at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2-23 pullback near 4,578. Then, a sustained recovery above 4,850 would be needed to neutralize the emerging downside bias and open the way back toward the 50‑day SMA near 4,944.

Conversely, a clean break below 4,600 would expose the 4,550-4,375 range that contained price action in late March, followed by the 200‑day SMA near 4,150, just above the 4,000 psychological level.

All in all, gold has found some support at 4,600 and is attempting to rebound, but the lack of follow‑through buying keeps the near‑term outlook bearish. Price remains under pressure below the uptrend line despite repeated attempts to reclaim it. Holding above 4,550 is key in preventing momentum from turning decisively more negative.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6880; (P) 0.6899; (R1) 0.6913; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but remains bounded in range above 0.6832. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.6832 will extend the decline from 0.7187 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. However, firm break of 0.6978 will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 0.7817 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

Markets open the week in a surprisingly calm tone, but the stability masks a high-stakes setup ahead of US President Donald Trump’s Iran deadline. Investors are not facing a simple binary outcome. Instead, markets are positioned within a three-way risk structure, where the interpretation of escalation—not just escalation itself—will dictate the next move.

Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 7, 8pm E.T. has introduced a clear event risk. His warning of strikes on civilian infrastructure, framed as “Power Plant Day,” has raised the stakes significantly. Yet markets are not reacting with panic, suggesting that investors are leaning toward a contained outcome.

The focus is squarely on oil price as the decision trigger. The key thresholds are clear: 120+ in Brent crude as disruption threshold, 90 as resolution signal. Which side breaks will determine whether markets are forced into a deeper repricing.

So far, the tone across assets points to cautious optimism. Stocks in Japan and South Korea are trading higher today, while other regional markets remain closed for holidays. Gold is holding in a narrow range and Bitcoin is recovering modestly. Most notably, oil has stabilized after a brief spike. But there is a critical question: is the bounce in equities the start of a sustainable rally, or simply a “dead cat bounce driven” by positioning? The answer hinges not only on whether escalation occurs, but on how it is interpreted.

At the center of the current positioning is the “Short War” narrative. Some instituationl investors could be betting that any escalation will be intense but contained, with a defined timeline rather than a prolonged conflict. This belief has encouraged dip-buying behavior even as geopolitical risks remain elevated.

Two factors underpin this view:

• First, Trump’s own “2–3 week” timeline has shaped expectations that the conflict could be resolved relatively quickly once key infrastructure targets are addressed. This has created an environment where investors are pricing containment vs disruption, leaning toward the former.
• Second, there is a widespread perception that Iran’s capacity to sustain a prolonged war is limited. While Tehran has rejected the ultimatum and continued strikes across the region, including attacks on Kuwait’s oil facilities, markets appear to assume that escalation will ultimately force a negotiated outcome.

However, this view creates asymmetric risk. If escalation deviates from the short war narrative, markets may be forced into a rapid repricing. In such a scenario, a break above 120 in oil would signal that disruption—not containment—is being priced. That shift would likely trigger a broader risk-off move. Equities would come under pressure, bond yields would rise on inflation concerns, and safe-haven assets would regain traction. The current calm would quickly give way to volatility. Conversely, a de-escalation outcome—such as a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—would likely send oil back toward 90. This would ease inflation fears, pull yields lower, and support a broader risk-on rally across equities and high-beta currencies.

Currency markets are already reflecting a tentative risk-on bias. Kiwi is leading gains for the day, followed by Aussie and Sterling, while Swiss Franc and Dollar are lagging. This suggests that markets are leaning toward a benign outcome, at least for now. Ultimately, the calm in Asia is less about confidence and more about positioning ahead of a decisive event. Markets are not stable—they are compressed. And as the deadline approaches, oil will determine whether investors’ short war bet holds—or is proven wrong.

Bitcoin Finds Structural Demand Floor on ETF Inflows During War Shock, Eyes 76K

Bitcoin has built a structural demand floor near 60K as ETF-driven inflows return, even amid war-driven volatility. But upside remains capped, with a 70K breakout needed to target 76K, while the 80K zone stands as a major institutional supply wall under higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Read More.

Week Ahead: Critical Inflation Test for Fed as Oil Price Shock Moves from Fear to Data

Markets shift from pricing oil-driven risk to testing real inflation impact as US CPI takes focus. With Brent above $100, the key question is whether rising energy costs are feeding into core prices and forcing a rethink of Fed policy parth. This week’s data could confirm the stagflation trade—or challenge it. Read More.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6880; (P) 0.6899; (R1) 0.6913; More...

AUD/USD recovers mildly today but remains bounded in range above 0.6832. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, below 0.6832 will extend the decline from 0.7187 to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7187 at 0.6700. However, firm break of 0.6978 will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 0.7817 high.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.6706 cluster support holds, rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) should still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206 will solidify the case that it's already reversing the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). However, firm break of 0.6706 will dampen this bullish case, and bring deeper fall back to 0.6420 support, and possibly below.

Bitcoin has found surprising stability in an environment that has been anything but supportive. In March, as the Iran War drove a sharp rally in oil prices and intensified inflation risks, most risk assets struggled under tightening financial conditions. Yet Bitcoin held steady in range above 60k, signaling that a structural “demand floor” has already taken shape.

That floor appears to have formed around the 60k region, underpinned by a decisive shift in flows. March recorded USD 1.32 billion in ETF-driven inflows, snapping a four-month streak of withdrawals. Institutional players effectively treated the war-driven dip as a strategic accumulation opportunity, stepping in aggressively at lower levels.

At the same time, the supply side showed clear signs of fatigue. The market had already absorbed two major waves of liquidation—from 126k (Oct) to 80k (Nov), and then from 98k (Jan) to 60k (Feb). This sequence points to broad seller exhaustion, with weak hands largely flushed out and downside momentum losing traction.

Technically, in the near term, the 70k level stands as the key breakout trigger. A firm move above this psychological level, particularly alongside a sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 70,959) would signal that the pattern from 59,866 low is extending with another another upleg. Such a development would open the path toward 76k resistance and potentially extend further.

However, the structure of the pattern so far suggests that it’s merely a consolidation phase within the larger down trend from 126,289. Hence, upside should be constrained by a clearly defined ceiling.

The zone between the 50% retracement of 97,922 to 59,866 at 78,894 and the 80,492 support-turned-resistance marks a significant institutional distribution zone. This area aligns closely with the 80k level, forming a well-defined “supply wall” where large-scale profit-taking is likely to emerge.

The macro backdrop reinforces this floor vs ceiling contrast. While ETF flows and positioning support the downside, Bitcoin continues to face non-yielding asset pressure amid higher-for-longer Fed expectations. Rising real yields and the fading prospect of rate cuts limit the scope for sustained upside, even as demand stabilizes.

In this context, Bitcoin’s current setup reflects balance rather than breakout. A durable floor has been established near 60k, but a decisive shift in macro conditions would be needed to clear the 80k ceiling. Until then, price action is likely to remain defined by range dynamics, with rallies capped and dips supported.