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Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.48; (P) 146.97; (R1) 147.70; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral with current recovery, but further decline is expected with 148.50 resistance intact. Break of 146.22 will resume the fall from 151.89 to 145.06 key support level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 (2023 low) is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 151.93 (2022 high). Decisive break of 145.06 resistance turned support will confirm that this second leg has completed, after rejection by 151.93. Deeper fall would be seen through 38.2% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 142.45 to 61.8% retracement at 136.63. Nevertheless strong bounce from 145.06 will retain medium term bullishness for another test on 151.93 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3491; (P) 1.3526; (R1) 1.3573; More...

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral for the moment. Below 1.3479 will resume the corrective fall from 1.3897. But downside should be seen from 1.3378 support, which is close to 61.8% retracement of 1.3091 to 1.3897 at 1.3399, to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3625 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for stronger rise.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.3091 is seen as the fifth leg of the whole rise from 1.2005 (2021 low). Further rally is expected as long as 1.3378 support holds, to 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3091 at 1.4064. However, decisive break of 1.3378 will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back to 1.3091 instead.

Bears returned fully to game on Monday after Friday’s brief pause on Fed Powell’s remarks, pushing the Euro to the lowest in three weeks.

The pair slid over 0.5% until mid-US session and cracked pivotal support at 1.0818 (200DMA), looking for a bearish signal on firm break, which will be confirmed on extension and close below nearby Fibo support at 1.0799 (38.2% of 1.0448/1.1017).

Loss of these supports will add to signals of reversal pattern which is forming on daily chart and open way for deeper drop through 100DMA (1.0778) towards 1.0737 (50% retracement and 1.0700 (round-figure).

Negative momentum is strengthening on daily chart and supports the action, however, MA’s are in mixed setup and oversold stochastic warns that bears may take a breather soon.

Limited upticks should provide better levels to re-enter bearish market, with 20DMA (1.0846) offering initial resistance and broken Fibo 23.6% (1.0882) to cap and keep bears in play.

Res: 1.0818; 1.0846; 1.0882; 1.0912
Sup: 1.0799; 1.0778; 1.0737; 1.0700

US yields rebounded and major indices sold off yesterday as markets have priced in a beyond-reasonable amount of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) for next year based on a soft-landing scenario. All eyes are on the US jobs data for some comfort… that may or may not come.

Hangover

Financial markets were feeling the hangover from the November rally yesterday. The week kicked off with a downside correction in many stock and bond markets, whereas the bigger than expected slump in US factory orders, soft growth in British retail sales amid the Black Friday discounts failed to boost sales, and an unexpected fall in Australian company profits last quarter could’ve further boosted the central bank doves and the rate cut bets around the globe. But they didn’t’. The US 2-year yield jumped to 4.66% level as the 10-year yield rebounded to 4.30% on awakening that the Fed rate cut bets may have gone a bit too far, and that it was – maybe time for a correction. As such, the S&P500 gave back some field close to a ytd high level and we saw a bigger selloff in rate-sensitive Nasdaq – which lost 1% yesterday. Stocks in Europe retreated as well, but they first advanced to a fresh high since summer before Americans came to hammer sentiment.

In the FX, the US dollar jumped past its 200-DMA, and in metals, the ounce of gold saw a more than $100 selloff after hitting an ATH on Monday’s open. The kneejerk reaction of the market to yesterday’s gold rally was so violent that it made me think twice about the potential of a significant rise in gold prices in the short run above the $2000 level. Gold’s value is negatively correlated to the US yields as gold doesn’t pay interest. Therefore, if the US yields continue to fall, there will be a natural appetite for holding gold. But if yields go up – which is my base case scenario after such a rapid and significant fall in November, then the cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold will increase, and its value should decrease.

Data watch

Investors don’t have much time to think of the past and make digestive trades. We will have a flow of new and important economic data – including the US jobs data - which will help the market find fresh direction. Either soft data will cement the Fed rate cut bets or robust data will inject uncertainty and volatility to the market. In this context, the JOLTS data is expected to show lesser job additions in the US in October. But note that the US jobs market was impacted by strikes last month, last month’s negative impact could turn out to be positive for this month, and the latter could eventually blur the visibility of the health of the US jobs market.

Presently, the markets price in around 125bp cut from the Fed next year, that’s obviously significantly lower than where the Fed sees its rate by the end of next year. The Fed optimism looks overstretched, the risk assets were in the overbought territory until yesterday, and we need sufficiently soft US data to keep the bears asleep, otherwise a gust of hot wind could easily rouse the bear from its slumber.

Elsewhere

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting and warned that more tightening could be needed depending on the data. Governor Michelle Bullock says that Australian inflation becomes more ‘home-grown’ than supply chain related, and if inflation remains sticky, more rate hikes could be in the pipeline for Australians. Yes, but we already knew that the RBA would sound reasonably hawkish, so the AUDUSD couldn’t benefit from the RBA’s hawkish accompanying statement, the pair fell on a broad-based rebound in the US dollar, instead. The USDJPY remained offered at the 100-DMA despite a softer than expected inflation read in Tokyo and a disappointing sales of the 10-year JGBs. The EURUSD on the other hand tipped a toe below its 200-DMA and tested the 1.08 support to the downside yesterday. The easing Eurozone inflation, along with slowing European economies boost the dovish European Central Bank (ECB) expectations. Today, Eurozone’s October PPI and final services PMI data should print a further decline in producer price inflation and a continued contraction in activity in the zone, as the Eurozone GDP read – due Thursday – will likely confirm a 0.1% contraction last quarter. The EURUSD sees support near 1.0800/1.0820, which includes the 200-DMA and the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on October – November rebound. But clearing this support – which shouldn’t be a big deal if the US dollar further corrects - should pave the way for an extended selloff toward 1.0730.
Whatever

The selloff in crude oil continues. The barrel of US crude just slipped below the $73pb level this morning, as oil bears totally ignored the Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman’s warning that production cuts can ‘absolutely’ continue past Q1 if needed. At this point, OPEC had better wait for the dust to settle. Not seeing reaction to threats is worse than watching prices go down. Prospects of slower global economy will likely help the oil bears hit their $70pb target in the continuation of a solidly building negative trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6639; (R1) 0.6672; More...

AUD/USD dips notably today but stays above 0.6570 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of channel resistance (now at 0.6651) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should then be seen to 0.6894 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6570 support will indicate rejection by the channel and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6482) instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Today's Asian session saw broad decline in Australian Dollar, along with New Zealand and Canadian Dollars. This pattern suggests a shift towards risk aversion among investors, a sentiment echoed by the performance of major Asian stock indexes. Hong Kong stocks, in particular, continued their recent down trend, reaching new lows due to disappointing earnings results from some large Chinese companies. Japan's Nikkei index also hit a three-week low, largely impacted by falling chipmaker stocks.

RBA's decision to maintain its interest rate unchanged was in line with market expectations. Despite this, the statement was interpreted as less hawkish than some market analysts anticipated. However, prior to the meeting, it was largely understood that RBA would await Q4 inflation data, scheduled for release in January, before contemplating its next move in February. Thus, RBA's stance of data-dependency and openness to future rate hikes was not an entirely new revelation. Nonetheless, the Australian Dollar is currently underperforming even compared to other commodity-linked currencies.

In other areas of the currency markets, Dollar, Euro, and Japanese Yen are showing relative strength. But Yen's progress is somewhat tempered by lower-than-expected inflation figure from Tokyo. Dollar is also facing challenges in sustaining its near-term rebound. Market focus is now shifting towards the upcoming US ISM Services PMI, which is expected to introduce some volatility. However, traders may hold off on larger bets until Friday's non-farm payroll report.

Technically, USD/CAD is recovering mildly after edging lower to 1.3479 yesterday. Fall from 1.3897 is seen as a corrective move only. While another fall cannot be ruled out yet, bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD suggest that downside should be contained by 1.3378 support, at least on first attempt. Meanwhile, break of 1.3625 resistance will argue that the correction has completed and bring stronger rebound. With key economic events like ISM services data, BoC's rate decision, and US non-farm payroll report on the horizon, the direction of USD/CAD is likely to become clearer very soon.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.20%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.44%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.67%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.28%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0040 at 0.687. Overnight, DOW fell -0.11%. S&P 500 fell -0.54%. NASDAQ fell -0.85%. 10-year yield rose 0.062 to 4.288.

RBA holds rates following sparse information since last meeting

RBA kept its cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, aligning with market expectations. The central bank's latest statement indicates continued openness to further rate hikes, but emphasizes that any such decision "will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks." This stance reflects a careful approach, as RBA awaits more comprehensive data, particularly the Q4 inflation figures due in January, before its next meeting in early February.

In its review of the "limited information" available since November meeting, RBA acknowledged that the data were "broadly in line with expectations." The October monthly CPI update suggested continued moderation in inflation, but did not provide substantial insights into services inflation. While wage growth accelerated in Q3, it is "not expected to increase much further". The labor market conditions are seen as "continuing to ease gradually," though they remain tight.

RBA also highlighted "still significant uncertainties" regarding the economic outlook. It pointed out the potential for persistent services inflation in Australia. Domestically, the uncertainties include the lag effects of monetary policy and household consumption patterns. On a global scale, the ongoing uncertainty around Chinese economy's trajectory and the broader implications of international conflicts were noted as significant factors influencing Australia's economic environment.

Japan's Tokyo CPI core slows to 2.3% yoy in Nov, core-core still stick at 3.6% yoy

November's inflation data in Japan's capital Tokyo shows a notable slowdown. CPI core, which excludes fresh food, dropped from 2.7% yoy to 2.3% yoy, falling slightly below the expected 2.4%. This decline brings the reading further towards BoJ target of 2%.

Headline CPI also experienced a decrease, falling back to 2.6% yoy. This reduction comes after an unexpected rise from 2.8% yoy in September to 3.2% yoy in October.

Furthermore, CPI core-core, which excludes both food and energy, showed some progress. It declined from 3.8% yoy to 3.6% yoy, a reduction from its peak of 4.0% seen in July and August. However, the still relatively high CPI core-core reading indicates that underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent within the economy, despite the overall slowdown.

Japan's PMI services finalized at 50.8, weakening in a year of strong growth

Japan's PMI Services for November was finalized at 50.8, down from October's 51.6, marking the weakest reading since November 2022. PMI Composite also fell to 49.6, down from 50.5 in the previous month, indicating the first contraction since December 2022.

Trevor Balchin, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, contextualized these numbers, stating, "November data signalled a further loss of momentum in the services sector, but this should be viewed in the context of a year of strong growth." He highlighted that Business Activity Index for 2023 is trending at 53.7, the highest annual reading since the survey's inception in 2007.

Balchin also pointed out several positive aspects in the latest survey. The rise in new business, sustained employment growth, and the increase in outstanding work indicate ongoing economic activity. Furthermore, the 12-month outlook for activity improved and was "among the strongest on record". Despite these optimistic signs, price pressures in November eased but remained above long-term trends.

China's PMI services rose to 51.5 in Nov, composite rose to 51.6

China's Caixin PMI Services rose from 50.4 to 51.5 in November, above expectation of 50.8. PMI Composite rose from 50.0 to 51.6.

Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group said: "Overall, the macroeconomy showed signs of a positive recovery, with steady growth in consumer spending, solid progress in industrial production and improved market expectations.

"However, due to various unfavorable factors, both domestic and external demand still face challenges and employment pressures remain relatively high. The foundation for economic recovery needs to be further consolidated."

Looking ahead

France industrial production, Eurozone PMI services final and PPI, UK PMI services final will be released in European session. Later in the day, US ISM services is the main focus.

AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6586; (P) 0.6639; (R1) 0.6672; More...

AUD/USD dips notably today but stays above 0.6570 support so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, sustained break of channel resistance (now at 0.6651) will argue that whole decline from 0.7156 has completed with three waves down to 0.6269. Further rally should then be seen to 0.6894 resistance for confirmation. However, break of 0.6570 support will indicate rejection by the channel and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6482) instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Revised
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Y/Y Nov	2.60%		3.30%	3.20%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Nov	2.30%	2.40%	2.70%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI ex Food Energy Y/Y Nov	3.60%		3.80%
00:30	AUD	Current Account (AUD) Q3	-0.2B	3.5B	7.7B	7.8B
01:45	CNY	Caixin Services PMI Nov	51.5	50.8	50.4
03:30	AUD	RBA Interest Rate Decision	4.35%	4.35%	4.35%
07:45	EUR	France Industrial Output M/M Oct		-0.20%	-0.50%
08:45	EUR	Italy Services PMI Nov		48.2	47.7
08:50	EUR	France Services PMI Nov F		45.3	45.3
08:55	EUR	Germany Services PMI Nov F		48.7	48.7
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Services PMI Nov F		48.2	48.2
09:30	GBP	Services PMI Nov F		50.5	50.5
10:00	EUR	Eurozone PPI M/M Oct		0.20%	0.50%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone PPI Y/Y Oct		-9.40%	-12.40%
14:45	USD	Services PMI Nov F		50.8	50.8
15:00	USD	ISM Services PMI Nov		52.6	51.8

As we expected, the RBA Board kept rates on hold following its December meeting. Information received since the previous meeting in early November was considered ‘broadly in line’ with their expectations. The Governor’s decision statement emphasised that inflation continues to moderate, driven by the goods sector. Ahead of its meeting in February 2024, the Board will be focused on the December quarter CPI result. If inflation does not decline as the RBA intends, the Board will respond with increased rates. But this is not the most likely outcome.

As we expected, the RBA Board kept rates on hold following its December meeting. Information received since the previous meeting in early November was described as ‘limited’ and considered ‘broadly in line’ with their expectations. Given that, the Board did not see a need to follow up last month’s increase with another this month. Recall that the RBA’s November forecasts were predicated on ‘one to two’ increases in the cash rate, with one having already been delivered. By pausing this month, the RBA Board is giving itself ‘time to assess’ the impact of recent rate increases. The statement noted that both household consumption and dwelling investment are weak, and that conditions in the labour market are continuing to ease gradually.

The Governor’s statement noted that ‘[h]igher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. The impact of the more recent rate rises, including last month’s, will continue to flow through the economy.’ In other words, policy is working as normal. The Board would be aware that further rate increases from here will have much of their impact at least a year from now – by which time inflation should already be at or close to target.

The October CPI indicator was lower than market forecasts and, we believe, the RBA’s expectations. Much of this surprise was in noisy components such as fuel and holiday travel, which the RBA will tend to look through. The Governor’s statement highlighted the role of goods prices in driving the decline in inflation. It also called out that the October release contained little information on services inflation, which is the centre of the Board’s concerns.

Given the Board’s determination to return inflation to target in a reasonable timeframe, it is understandable that the Governor’s statement does not highlight downside risks to inflation. Even so, the October outcome does point to downside risks tempering the upside risks to inflation. One of these potential downsides is that government rent assistance weighed on rent inflation by more than expected. Unlike electricity rebates, this is a lasting reduction in rent levels and does not involve the ‘payback’ seen when temporary measures expire. In addition, headline inflation is what people experience, so the downside surprise in the October indicator lowers the risk of inflation expectations rising. The Governor’s statement after the meeting repeated the Bank’s assessment that inflation expectations remain consistent with the RBA’s inflation target. It also repeated the language of earlier statements about wages growth being consistent with inflation returning to target, ‘provided productivity growth picks up’.

Among the changes to the statement from last month was an acknowledgement that there are ‘encouraging signs on goods inflation abroad’. Recent downside surprises for inflation in some major advanced economies would surely also have been some comfort to the Board, given the global nature of the inflation pressures coming from goods and energy prices. While the Governor’s statement does not mention it, the appreciation of the exchange rate over recent weeks is also helpful for dampening inflation pressures, at least at the margin.

A noteworthy change in the language of the Governor’s statement is the recap of the reasoning behind the previous month’s decision to increase rates. A similar recap of the evolution of the Board’s thinking was also included in the Overview of the November Statement on Monetary Policy. We interpret this as part of the Bank’s response to the RBA Review’s recommendations for clearer and more straightforward communication.

In the lead-up to the next meeting in February, the RBA Board will be assessing whether inflation is declining fast enough to reach the 2–3% target in 2025. They have no tolerance for further delays in the return of inflation to target beyond this date. Any upside surprises will be met with further policy action. For this reason, the February meeting should still be considered ‘live’. It remains our view, though, that it is more likely than not that the RBA has reached the peak of its rate hiking cycle.

• RBA left its policy cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in line with expectations.
• A slight dovish tonality in the monetary policy statement has reduced the expectations of a “hawkish pause”.
• Technical analysis suggests that the medium-term uptrend phase of the AUD/USD from its 26 October 2023 low remains intact.
• Watch the 0.6570 pivotal support.

Australia’s central bank, RBA has left its policy cash rate unchanged today at 4.35% which came in line with expectations after a prior 25 basis points (bps) hike last month.

Before today’s monetary policy meeting, newly appointed RBA Governor Bullock peppered her public speeches with hawkish rhetoric that expressed concerns about sticky elevated domestic inflation pressures that required higher interest rates to negate them.

Hence, in the run-up to today’s RBA meeting, several market participants expected a “hawkish pause” with similar hawkish rhetoric text to be expressed in the accompanying policy statement.

AUD/USD plummeted due to “cognitive dissonance”

But in contrast, the actual tonality of the statement has leaned towards a dovish tilt with a focus on data dependence; it stated that whether further tightening is warranted will depend on the data as well as the evolving assessment of risk, added that the outlook on household consumption remains uncertain.

Also, the statement acknowledged that inflation has moderated as seen in the softer-than-expected monthly CPI for October (4.9% from 5.6% September, and below 5.2% consensus) was driven by the goods sector but the October inflation update did not provide much information on the services sector.

The cognitive dissonance between the tonality of the latest RBA monetary statement and the recent hawkish speeches from RBA Governor Bullock continued to put downside pressure on the AUD/USD today (5 December) where it has shed -117 pips from yesterday’s intraday high of 0.6690 to print a current intraday low of 0.6571 at this time of the writing.

Retesting the key 200-day moving average with oversold condition

Fig 1:  AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 5 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

Fig 2:  AUD/USD minor short-term trend as of 5 Dec 2023 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The current weakness seen in the AUD/USD has led it to challenge a key pivotal support at 0.6570 that also confluences with the key 200-day moving average where price actions have traded above it since 27 November 2023.

Several positive elements suggest the AUD/USD may stage a potential bullish reversal at this juncture.

Firstly, the 2-year spread between Australian sovereign bonds and US Treasury notes has continued to inch upwards since its bullish breakout from a key resistance on 26 October 2023, suggesting a further potential narrowing of the 2-year yield negative spread.

Secondly, the daily RSI momentum indicator has not reached an overbought condition and it remains above a parallel ascending support at the 55 level.

Thirdly, the short-term hourly RSI momentum indicator has dipped down to an oversold level of 24.40, its lowest since 7 November 2023 which suggests an overstretched minor decline from yesterday’s intraday high of 0.6690.

Watch the 0.6570 pivotal support and clearance above 0.6635 near-term resistance may reinstate the bullish tone to see the next intermediate resistance coming at 0.6700 (also the upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since the 26 October 2023 low) in the first step.

However, a break below 0.6570 invalidates the recovery scenario to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6500 (20-day moving average) and 0.6450 (lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel & 50-day moving average).

Dow Futures (YM_F) shows incomplete sequence from 10.3.2022 low favoring further upside. Rally from 10.3.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.3.2022 low, wave (1) ended at 35228 and dips in wave (2) ended at 32409. Wave (3) higher is in progress as an impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 34315 and dips in wave 2 ended at 33913. Index then resumed higher in wave 3 towards 36338.

The 45 minutes chart below shows the move higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 35456 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 35309. Up from wave ((ii)), the Index is nesting in wave (i) at 35641 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 35456. Index then resumed higher in wave (iii) towards 36058 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 36015. Wave (v) higher ended at 36101 which completed wave ((iii)). Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 35963. Wave ((v)) higher ended at 36337 which completed wave 3 in higher degree. Pullback in wave 4 is currently in progress as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 36093 and wave ((b)) rally ended at 36299. Wave ((c)) lower is expected to complete at the 100% extension area at 35857 – 36026 where wave 4 should end. From there, the Index should see further upside or 3 waves rally at least.

Dow Futures (YM_F) 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

YM_F Elliott Wave Video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PfSweGbGrx4

DXY:

The DXY (US Dollar Index) chart currently has a bearish overall momentum. Price could potentially continue this bearish trend towards the 1st support at 103.02, which is identified as an overlap support. This level may act as a significant area where buying interest could emerge and potentially provide some support for the DXY.

If the bearish momentum continues, the 2nd support at 102.62, categorized as a multi-swing low support, may come into play as an additional level of potential support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 103.72 is noted as a multi-swing high resistance, indicating it as a significant barrier where selling interest may intensify, potentially limiting further upward movement. The 2nd resistance at 104.15 is categorized as an overlap resistance, adding to the potential resistance factors for the DXY.

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD chart currently exhibits a bullish overall momentum. Price could potentially experience a bullish bounce off the 1st support at 1.0800, which is identified as an overlap support with the added significance of a 127.20% Fibonacci Extension. This level may act as a strong support zone where buying interest could emerge, potentially propelling the currency pair higher.

If the bullish momentum continues, the 2nd support at 1.0759, categorized as a pullback support with the significance of a 161.80% Fibonacci Extension, may provide an additional level of support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.0878 is noted as an overlap resistance, indicating it as a significant barrier where selling interest may intensify, potentially limiting further upward movement. The 2nd resistance at 1.0958 is categorized as a pullback resistance, adding to the potential resistance factors for the EUR/USD.

EUR/JPY:

The EUR/JPY chart currently has a bearish overall momentum, and there’s a potential scenario in which the price could rise towards the 1st resistance in the short term before reversing and dropping towards the 1st support level.

1st support at 158.72: This level is identified as a swing low support, suggesting that it could be a significant area where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for EUR/JPY.

2nd support at 157.75: This support level is categorized as a multi-swing low support, indicating that it’s a level where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, 1st resistance at 160.35: The 1st resistance is noted as a pullback resistance, suggesting that it’s a substantial barrier where selling interest could intensify, potentially triggering a reversal.

2nd resistance at 161.52: This is identified as an overlap resistance, indicating another level where selling pressure may increase.

EUR/GBP:

The EUR/GBP chart currently has a bearish overall momentum, and there’s a potential scenario in which the price could rise towards the 1st resistance in the short term before reversing and dropping towards the 1st support level.

1st support at 0.8559: This level is identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating that it could be a significant area where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for EUR/GBP.

2nd support at 0.8525: This support level is categorized as a swing low support, suggesting that it’s a level where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, 1st resistance at 0.8620: The 1st resistance is noted as a pullback resistance, suggesting that it’s a substantial barrier where selling interest could intensify, potentially triggering a reversal.

2nd resistance at 0.8664: This is identified as an overlap resistance, indicating another level where selling pressure may increase.

GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD chart currently has a bullish overall momentum. Price could potentially make a bullish bounce off the 1st support at 1.2585, which is identified as an overlap support and coincides with the 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement level. This support level may act as a strong zone where buying interest could emerge, potentially driving the currency pair higher.

If the bullish momentum continues, the 2nd support at 1.2500, categorized as a pullback support and associated with the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement, may offer an additional level of support.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.2727 is noted as an overlap resistance, indicating it as a significant barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 1.2794 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, further adding to potential resistance factors for the GBP/USD.

GBP/JPY:

The overall momentum of GBP/JPY is bearish. Price could potentially rise towards the 1st resistance in the short term before reversing off it and dropping towards the 1st support.
There could be a potential bullish move towards the 1st resistance, but traders should watch for signs of reversal or a failure to break above the 186.43 level. If the price fails to break above the 1st resistance, it could reverse and target the support levels.

1st support at 185.09: This level is a multi-swing low support, suggesting potential buying interest if the price approaches it.

2nd support at 184.21: This support level is based on a pullback and could provide additional buying interest if tested.

1st resistance at 186.43: This is the initial resistance level. It’s an overlap resistance and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, making it a significant barrier for potential bullish moves.

2nd resistance at 186.43 – This is the initial resistance level. It’s an overlap resistance and coincides with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement, making it a significant barrier for potential bullish moves.

USD/CHF:

The USD/CHF chart currently has a bearish overall momentum, and price could potentially make a bearish continuation towards the 1st support at 0.8665. This support level is identified as a multi-swing low support, indicating that it has held as a significant level of buying interest in the past.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.8762 is categorized as an overlap resistance, which suggests it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 0.8861 is also noted as an overlap resistance, further reinforcing the potential resistance factors for the USD/CHF.

USD/JPY:

The USD/JPY chart currently has a bearish overall momentum, and price could potentially continue this bearish trend towards the 1st support at 146.19. This support level is identified as a swing low support, indicating its significance as a potential area where buying interest may emerge.

Additionally, there is an intermediate support at 146.90, categorized as an overlap support, which further reinforces its potential as a level where buyers might become active, potentially providing some support for USD/JPY.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 147.70 is noted as a pullback resistance, and it also coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level. This suggests it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 148.18 is categorized as an overlap resistance.

USD/CAD:

The USD/CAD chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, and there is potential for a bearish reaction off the 1st resistance level, leading to a drop towards the 1st support.

The 1st support at 1.3521 is identified as an overlap support level, indicating it could be a significant level where buying interest may emerge.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 1.3481, noted as a swing low support, which adds to its potential importance as another area where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 1.3571 is supported by the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level, suggesting it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 1.3622 is identified as a swing high resistance, reinforcing the potential resistance factors for USD/CAD.

AUD/USD:

The AUD/USD chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, and there is potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 0.6589 is identified as an overlap support, indicating it could be a significant level where buying interest may emerge.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 0.6520, also noted as an overlap support level, which adds to its potential importance as another area where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.6675 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, suggesting it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 0.6724 is identified as a swing high resistance, reinforcing the potential resistance factors for AUD/USD.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, and there is potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 0.6130 is considered significant as it aligns with an overlap support level, indicating it could serve as a strong level where buying interest might emerge.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 0.6064, also identified as an overlap support level, adding to its potential importance as another area where buyers could become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 0.6207 is categorized as a multi-swing high resistance, suggesting it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 0.6274 is noted as a swing high resistance, further reinforcing the potential resistance factors for NZD/USD.

DJ30:

The DJ30,the momentum of the chart is the overall momentum of the chart is weak bullish with low confidence. Price could potentially make a bullish continuation towards 1st resistance.

1st support at 35726.00: This level is a multi-swing low support, indicating that it has previously provided a base for the price. Traders may view this as a potential level for buying interest.

2nd support at 35058.06: This level represents an overlap support, which is formed when previous price action has clustered around a particular level. It could act as a support zone if the price approaches it.

1st resistance at 36299.99: This level is a swing high resistance, where the price has encountered selling pressure in the past. Traders may look for potential bullish breakouts or reversals around this level.

2nd resistance at 3699.07: This level aligns with the 127.2% fibonacci retracement level.

GER40:

The GER40 overall momentum is the overall momentum of the chart is bearish. There is a potential bearish reaction off 1st resistance and drop to 1st support.

1st support at 16213.7: This level is a pullback support and has previously acted as a support level. It might attract buying interest if the price approaches it.

2nd support at 15523.4 (23.60% Fibonacci Retracement): Fibonacci retracement levels are often watched by traders as potential support or resistance areas. This level aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement, making it a significant support level.

1st resistance at 16437.0: This level is a swing high resistance. It’s an important level where the price has previously encountered selling pressure. Traders may look for potential reversals or bearish opportunities around this level.

US500:

The overall momentum of US500 is the overall momentum of the chart is bearish. There is a possibility of a bearish continuation towards 1st support.

1st support at 4526.4: This level is a pullback support, which makes it a good candidate for a potential bounce. It has previously acted as a support level.

2nd support at 4499.4: This level corresponds to the 161.80% Fibonacci Extension. Fibonacci extensions are used to identify potential reversal or continuation levels. In this case, it provides an additional support level.

1st resistance at 4602.1: This level is a pullback resistance and coincides with the 61.80% Fibonacci Projection. It’s a significant resistance area where price may face selling pressure. A break above this level could signal a bullish reversal.

2nd resistance at 4635.7: This level represents a swing high resistance, which could act as a strong barrier for further upside. It’s another important level to watch for potential reversals.

BTC/USD:

The BTC/USD chart currently has a bearish overall momentum, and there’s potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 38283 is categorized as an overlap support, indicating that it could be a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for the BTC/USD pair.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 35619, also identified as an overlap support. This reinforces the significance of this support level, suggesting it as a potential area where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 41735 is noted as a swing high resistance. This implies that it’s a substantial barrier where selling interest could intensify, potentially triggering a bearish continuation.

The 2nd resistance at 44436 is identified as a pullback resistance, indicating another level where selling pressure may increase.

ETH/USD:

The ETH/USD chart currently has a bearish overall momentum, and there’s potential for a bearish continuation towards the 1st support level.

The 1st support at 2139.92 is categorized as a pullback support, indicating that it could be a significant level where buying interest may emerge, potentially providing support for the ETH/USD pair.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 2074.44, identified as an overlap support. This adds to the significance of this support level, indicating it as a potential area where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 2275.14 is noted as a swing high resistance. This suggests that it’s a substantial barrier where selling interest could intensify, potentially triggering a bearish continuation.

The 2nd resistance at 2409.56 is identified as a multi-swing high resistance, reinforcing the potential resistance factors for ETH/USD.

WTI/USD:

The WTI chart currently shows a bearish overall momentum, and it could potentially continue this bearish trend by breaking below the 1st support and heading towards the 2nd support.

The 1st support at 72.57 is considered significant as it aligns with a multi-swing low support level and coincides with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level, adding to its importance as a potential area where buying interest may emerge.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 70.85, which is also identified as a support level and corresponds with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level, emphasizing its potential significance as another level where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 74.28 is categorized as an overlap resistance, suggesting it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 77.97 is noted as a pullback resistance, further reinforcing potential resistance factors for WTI.

XAU/USD (GOLD):

The XAU/USD (Gold) chart currently exhibits a bearish overall momentum, and it could potentially continue this bearish trend towards the 1st support at 2008.88. This support level is categorized as a pullback support and coincides with the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level, adding to its significance as a potential area where buying interest may emerge.

Further down, there is a 2nd support at 1972.39, which is also identified as a pullback support and aligns with the 161.80% Fibonacci extension level, emphasizing its potential importance as a level where buyers might become active.

On the resistance side, the 1st resistance at 2069.37 is categorized as a pullback resistance, indicating it could act as a substantial barrier where selling interest may intensify. The 2nd resistance at 2149.14 is noted as a swing high resistance, further reinforcing potential resistance factors for XAU/USD.